How is Boris going to see his mistresses?
"I just went over to hers' to check my eyesight."
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
How is Boris going to see his mistresses?
"I just went over to hers' to check my eyesight."
Some people would have gotten minted out of it for a system that is absolute shit. I really need to get into the government contracts business.
Just feck a Tory MP and riches will follow
The idiots who dismiss the virus often focus on the low numbers of deaths. It’s not the deaths that’s the issue, it’s the negative knock-on effects of paralyzing the health care systems with the sick. Why wouldn’t someone willingly give up some of their freedoms for a period of time to potentially ensure the slowdown of the spread of the virus until a true vaccine is created? How can idiots not see that as anything but good?
Wow. That’s an American military-industrial complex level of boondoggle right there.
Because they want to feel special and enlightened. They don’t care about other people because they consider them dumb and stupid, they know the ‘truth’ about the virus and feel they are so much above everybody else.
That’s very Q of them.
Did we shut down the country for Flu last year? No, we just go on with < - Keep seeing that amongst a few people I know
Yeah it’s all over the place here too. Fortunately they seem to be prevalent on the internet mostly, where comments on FB and such are full of idiots. On the streets nowadays it appears that basically everyone is wearing a mask and obeying the rules. Not many really believe 100 people are dying daily of covid but as long as they wear masks and keep distance their beliefs are irrelevant.
The traction this snippet of lunacy has is something else. When people can’t get adequate emergent medical care for things like the flu, I wonder to what those that use this will pivot.
First vaccine to seek regulatory approval?
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2003415/pfizer-to-seek-vaccine-authorisation-in-november
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2003415/pfizer-to-seek-vaccine-authorisation-in-november
Glad I'm not the only one this irritated.
Shit, sorry to hear that mate. Fingers crossed for them all
Top news!
Good news. Two strong possibles by late November now. You convinced me of your 'almost certain' a while ago though Wibs.
We so need this sort of good news. Fingers crossed we get one or more vaccines through phase 3 trials soon. The world needs this to boost moral as much as anything.
I'm stressed enough in Australia so I can't imagine what you are all going through in the UK.
A bit behind Trump's optimistic election timeline but I'm optimistic of a fairly swift approval process, by vaccine standards that is.
It will be a good day for humanity when the good results of the Phase 3 trials start coming through. The first crucial step to a return to normality.
Unfortunately, I think some people actually need to experience it to understand it. Problem is, they'll probably blame the government even then. And I'm not talking UK specific here, it's the same all over Europe.
Most people only think about the direct consequence a virus contraction will have on their health, not what hospitals filled to the brim with people on ICU will mean if they have a heart attack, get injured in a car accident or needs a back operation.
I cant understand the UK's approach to these new tiers. The Mayor of Manchester is negotiating with the government over new restrictions. Why? You're the central government ffs. Just set the rules and tell them to follow. It's not a time for negotiations and party politics. The tier system is the right idea but the implementation is creating so much confusion.
At least your central government has the semblance of a policy...
One factor is that the public health experts have stated that additional local rules will be needed in the worst hit cities, towns and villages to be really effective, and also that local public health officials are the best placed to design them and respond to new needs. So they need local governments on board, in some way.
And it's been clear for a while now that resentment was building rapidly in the north so a dictatorial approach would lead to a political disaster and very possibly some civilian revolt. At this point it seems like a lot of local communities are on board with local governments fighting back, so if that option is taken off the table, I wouldn't be surprised to see some folks decide to just feck the rules altogether, while others would take to more formal protests. Which brings a few different risks with it.
They might do that in the end anyway but it's hardly a no brainer. You need citizens to be on board for public health policy to be effective. The stick can only do so much, especially when the prospect of police fines is being weighed up against their loss of income anyway.
And that old thing about basic democratic principles being upheld. The federal approach worked very well e.g. Germany but they did have a lot more protests too, in part because they didn't like being treated unfairly vs. their neighbours.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/influencer-who-thought-coronavirus-does-22861718
Well if it can kill a guy that’s in that kinda shape...
Well if it can kill a guy that’s in that kinda shape...
Exactly.
Not saying extremely cardio healthy people can't get really sick with Covid but it is very rare and there is no need to fearmonger.
It’s tongue in cheek fellas. Dude was a twat in his daily life.
I can’t imagine Boris likes this one bit. If it’s effective and the numbers shrink in Wales, there will be huge question marks over why they refuse to do it in England.
He will only not like because his normal tactics of lying or discrediting any criticism would not be effective against this comparison.
The data shows that men are roughly twice as likely to die from Covid-19 compared to women.
If an effective vaccine is not actually found, and if the virus spread eventually infects everyone, then the number of men on this planet will reduce by around 78 million compared to women .... or more if some people are re-infected over and over again.
This is based on on the current global mortality rate of nearly 3% and a global population of over 7.8b ... so if everyone eventually gets infected it means at least 234 million deaths, of which 156m will be men and 78m women.
If an effective vaccine is not actually found, and if the virus spread eventually infects everyone, then the number of men on this planet will reduce by around 78 million compared to women .... or more if some people are re-infected over and over again.
This is based on on the current global mortality rate of nearly 3% and a global population of over 7.8b ... so if everyone eventually gets infected it means at least 234 million deaths, of which 156m will be men and 78m women.
^ these numbers are completely incorrect and borderline irresponsible at this point.
Real IFR is 0.3% right now and constantly falling as therapeutics and treatment continue to improve.
This was from start of October and the antibody cocktail has already reduced the 70+ number by 20-30% as seen with Trump and co.
The CDC has changed the IFR values of Covid-19 into age-specific estimates, which are now very low at 0.003% for 0–19 years, 0.02% for 20–49 years, 0.5% for 50–69 years, and 5.4% for 70+ years.
Real IFR is 0.3% right now and constantly falling as therapeutics and treatment continue to improve.
This was from start of October and the antibody cocktail has already reduced the 70+ number by 20-30% as seen with Trump and co.
The CDC has changed the IFR values of Covid-19 into age-specific estimates, which are now very low at 0.003% for 0–19 years, 0.02% for 20–49 years, 0.5% for 50–69 years, and 5.4% for 70+ years.
@SinNombre
You originally said, before changing your post:
"^ these numbers are completely incorrect and borderline irresponsible at this point.
Real CFR [my emphasis] is 0.3% right now and constantly falling as therapeutics and treatment continue to improve."
The WHO say (as of today): "there have been 39,196,259 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 1,101,298 deaths, reported to WHO."
Dividing the the 2nd number by the 1st number does not = 0.3%. The CFR figure you gave (0.3%) is wrong - an under-estimate - by a factor of roughly 10.
However, I acknowledge that - as the WHO themselves say - the real 'CFR' is going to be lower than that indicated by the WHO figures, because some people who get infected are not reported as cases.
You originally said, before changing your post:
"^ these numbers are completely incorrect and borderline irresponsible at this point.
Real CFR [my emphasis] is 0.3% right now and constantly falling as therapeutics and treatment continue to improve."
The WHO say (as of today): "there have been 39,196,259 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 1,101,298 deaths, reported to WHO."
Dividing the the 2nd number by the 1st number does not = 0.3%. The CFR figure you gave (0.3%) is wrong - an under-estimate - by a factor of roughly 10.
However, I acknowledge that - as the WHO themselves say - the real 'CFR' is going to be lower than that indicated by the WHO figures, because some people who get infected are not reported as cases.
Isn’t IFR basically the great unknown?
Very hard to estimate during a pandemic for a variety of reasons
https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19
One thing is for sure is that if medical facilities are overwhelmed the rate will rise, probably sharply.
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Looking at death rates from March and April is grossly inaccurate is the point.
Over the past 30 days, the US is averaging around ~650 deaths on 50k confirmed new infections daily which is a CFR of 1.3% is still a lot lower than the 3% we were seeing at the start of pandemic.
Claiming 200million deaths if we do not have a vaccine is fear-mongering (though on the vaccine note, I am happy to bet that we will see a vaccine with an efficacy of at least 50% being widely distributed by end of next March).
I pasted the CDC's estimates for IFR which is very close to the German study.
Lots of very good studies have been done on this topic including what led to the CDC numbers, and they are all coming around to a similar number.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090076v2
the estimated IFR was 0.36% [0.29%; 0.45%].
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5352
The overall noninstitutionalized IFR was 0.26%
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%):
Over the past 30 days, the US is averaging around ~650 deaths on 50k confirmed new infections daily which is a CFR of 1.3% is still a lot lower than the 3% we were seeing at the start of pandemic.
Claiming 200million deaths if we do not have a vaccine is fear-mongering (though on the vaccine note, I am happy to bet that we will see a vaccine with an efficacy of at least 50% being widely distributed by end of next March).
I pasted the CDC's estimates for IFR which is very close to the German study.
Lots of very good studies have been done on this topic including what led to the CDC numbers, and they are all coming around to a similar number.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090076v2
the estimated IFR was 0.36% [0.29%; 0.45%].
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5352
The overall noninstitutionalized IFR was 0.26%
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%):
Looks like temperature matters but not as much as we feared, which could be good news. However, as behavior based on temperature is often a large part of why winter seems to make viral transmission worse I wonder if this will necessarily be true in Europe? These figures were in China where things were locked down hard and likely a million miles from the scenes we saw in Liverpool and other places recently.
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Great post, and one which was much needed in this thread. It’s scary, it’s sobering and we all need to work together to protect each other, but we have to be responsible in what we put out there, especially when so many are afraid and vulnerable.
Out of curiosity, are people allowed to travel across countries for leisure in Europe now? Is there a mandatory quarantine for these people? How many people are actually travelling? I know different countries have different policies, but I would like to know about the general picture.
Yeah, I understand that. But I also understand that it is, as your post says, an estimate... aka “unknown”.
Has there been a pandemic that we actually know the exact IFR for?
The point is that those two numbers do not reflect a representative sample of the population, so simply dividing 1m by 40m will not provide a good estimate on how many people it would kill if it infected the general population. That's really not in question at this stage. 156m men is way, way off.
And it's not like you need to understand convoluted scientific logic to see why it isn't a representative sample of the population. We know in the UK, along with many other countries, the people who were tested in the early months were the ones who were very sick. People like myself who had symptoms but were not severe enough to be hospitalised were explicitly told not to get a test by the NHS. That was primarily because we had testing shortages. So what the number represented then was the proportion of very sick people that would die.
We consciously knew that we were not counting the cases of people who contracted the virus but had minor symptoms, while at the same time we had no idea the degree of asymptomatic cases was as high as we now know. Since we've moved to mass testing you can get a much more accurate single figure, and as you point out in the opposite direction, there's a magnitude of difference. But using a single figure isn't necessary at this stage in the pandemic, when we've got a lot of data, and we know where differences exist.
You pointed out how men are twice as many men will die as women to start this whole thing off, after all. It doesn't make sense to account for the gender differences but not the age differences, given there is a much wider disparity among age than gender. People my age, who were disproportately likely to get mild symptoms, were therefore particularly likely to be underrepresented in the initial phase of testing. 0.02% for 0-40 year olds and 0.5% for 50-69 year olds is not a small difference, so if you accounted for just one factor alone, your estimate of 156m men would fall off a cliff.
If you're going to scale up the death numbers to the global population based on everyone getting the virus, it does matter that you use the right baseline figure. The real numbers are bad enough as it is, if you for whatever reason you want to imagine that weird doomsday scenario.
I watched the South Park covid special last night.
I don't watch South Park much but
How did Disney not sue them?
I don't watch South Park much but
How did Disney not sue them?
It varies. Mostly the borders to the big countries are open but you have to quarantine or take a test if you have been there. Getting harder to find places where you can go freely.
Flights are cut to about 50% of normal so some people are still travelling.