Hospital admissions rising in most European countries
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Peru and Ecuador have the highest excess deaths rates among countries producing comparable data: Measures of excess mortality* by country, during Covid-19 outbreaks
India has been forced to open up for economic reasons, curious how the numbers will look over the coming months.
Hopefully the lack of a severe winter keeps them low.
South Africa is in a somewhat similar boat.
UK and Spain have the dual hit of high deaths and a major contraction. Not sure if either country can take another quarter of contraction. The US actually hasn't done so terribly for a country of its size.
Thanks for sharing these charts wibble.
All from a Tweet someone else shared earlier. The main site is here https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/ and there is more to be released every day this week.
The fear is that massive under-reporting could be why their deaths looks so good. I hope not of course.
Even if the actual death count was 100% higher, it would still be very low. India is too chaotic a democracy with lots of independent media for the number to be a thousand % higher.
The initial lockdown while mismanaged was very stringent, so they never had the high fatalities and hospital loads the epicenters in Europe, US and South America had in March and April, and their high case count was in August and September by which point therapeutics had improved.
That said, I would hazard a guess that the 24% GDP contraction probably killed more people living below the poverty line. These are tough choices for countries like India and South Africa.
We are turning Warsaw national stadium into a temporary hospital and morgue. Other large cities will do the same with their arenas soon.
At the same time others are on the streets screaming ‘don’t be a slave, leave home and live’, ‘drop the mask and breathe’. Twice over weekend I’ve been told that I have been brainwashed by TV and it’s just a much, much milder flu, only doctors are all getting paid heavy money to put covid in death certificates.
This is beyond a mess and it’s only getting started.
At the same time others are on the streets screaming ‘don’t be a slave, leave home and live’, ‘drop the mask and breathe’. Twice over weekend I’ve been told that I have been brainwashed by TV and it’s just a much, much milder flu, only doctors are all getting paid heavy money to put covid in death certificates.
This is beyond a mess and it’s only getting started.
I don't think you need to look for conspiracies on that one. India just has a very young population. Nearly half the population is 19 or under, who the CDC estimate have a 0.003% mortality risk. So if all of the 463m Indians aged 0-19 contracted the virus, you would "only" expect 13,886 to die. And if the 850m people under 49 (i.e. 83% of the population) contracted the virus the overall mortality figure would still be less than 100k. Those under 49 represent just 64% in the US, or 62% in the UK.
So even though a population 3x smaller, you would expect more people to die from covid there if it spread to the entire population. And because those under 70 represent just 3% of the Indian population vs. 11% of the US population, and then you add in the other risk factors like obesity etc., it's just the case that while the virus is spreading in a semi-controlled manner, the at-risk populations in India are much less likely to be exposed to it because they occupy a much smaller segment of society. Which theoretically should also make them easier to shield, but then you've got the cultural and economic factors working against that.
I don't think anyone is suggesting a conspiracy. Just that a country the size of India with a large part of the population rural and poor may well have inconsistent reporting of covid deaths.
Yeah, it's surely a factor, but it is the case that India should have much fewer deaths than countries with similar numbers of cases, and we should expect that to maintain throughout the pandemic. The only way it wouldn't is if there was a massive health system collapse.
Totally agree with the point.. just pointing out that the data is from a 20 year old census.
Was trying to find some new data.. couldnt find anything.. but saw some comparisons between 2001 and 2011... while then population increased by 20% (wtf?), the 0-6 yr age group was pretty much the same 10 years apart.
And even that data is 10 years old..
India is still a very young country, but I would imagine the 0-19 would be close to 30% of the population right now.
We are currently at about 10% of Spring when you look at hospitalization and ICU figures, although it is rising quickly. I dont see it getting that bad again because the government is on top of it now, and crucially everybody still remembers March and accepts that sacrifices need to be made.
Big call
With no vaccine, at some point the focus will have to be on the vulnerable, they (includes me!) will have to be isolated completely and everyone else get on with their lives.
Personally if the government will pay for me to have a Skysports with box office contract, sign me up to use Netflix, (at no cost) etc. get Sainsbury to deliver my food (I will pay for the food) and deliver my medication, then I will stay indoors (my garden when weather permits) until the vaccine is available.
Oh yes and if its possible, a new (free) widescreen wall mounted HD TV, with surround sound would be nice!
Personally if the government will pay for me to have a Skysports with box office contract, sign me up to use Netflix, (at no cost) etc. get Sainsbury to deliver my food (I will pay for the food) and deliver my medication, then I will stay indoors (my garden when weather permits) until the vaccine is available.
Oh yes and if its possible, a new (free) widescreen wall mounted HD TV, with surround sound would be nice!
Bloody socialist.
Get a new house if he’s a forrownuh
really? ...drat, just bought a new phone!
Wales will go into a national lockdown from Friday until 9 November, First Minister Mark Drakeford has announced.
Everyone will be told to stay at home, while pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops will shut.
Everyone will be told to stay at home, while pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops will shut.
What makes you think there will be no vaccine. It is looking more and more like when rather than if.
I swear I have reached the point in this thread when I know who the poster is without checking the username
Now for Pogue to reply to this and state that we are all fecked.
Anyways, thanks for your posts, Wibble, you are bringing some much-needed positivity into this. I mean it.
Pfizer is mass producing a vaccine about 10km from my home as we speak. They hope it'll get approved fast. Fingers crossed.
What happens in countries where 70% of people will refuse to get vaccines? Do you force them to, or limit their rights to travel abroad etc. if they don't have vaccine certificate?
Definitely the latter IMO. Vaccinations are already a common VISA requirement.
I'd be perfectly happy with that. All the conspiracy nutters can go even crazier with their theories while I will be able to travel wherever I like. That'd be awesome.
I’d be interested in the Venn diagram that displayed anti-vaxxers against routine global travellers.
Wibble? How close are we to a vaccine? i heard we have a couple in stage 3 testing..... How long would a stage 3 test last for before rolling it out to the masses?
I swear I have reached the point in this thread when I know who the poster is without checking the username
Now for Pogue to reply to this and state that we are all fecked.
Anyways, thanks for your posts, Wibble, you are bringing some much-needed positivity into this. I mean it.
Pogue is more cautious and he is right that vaccines are a complex things and don't always make it to market when phase 3 testing fails or shows a vaccine isn't worth the cost of taking to matket e g. a vaccine for a non-fatal infection where the effectiveness is low, even if enough to pass minimum regulatory standards.
I'm largely playing a probability game knowing the number of vaccines in development means we are very likely to get multiple ones even if some aren't as effective as we would like and others fail.
I just hope we don't have a high profile failure first as moral isn't great in many countries and a failure would be a huge mental blow even, if later vaccines succeed.
Yeah I thought it seemed old-fashioned looking! Couldn't see the source. Cheers.
From what I've read the two most advanced would be ready for licencing for emergency approval in the US in late November as you need at least 2 months after a vaccine is administered to check for side effects. So they can still fail and I'm only going from the mainstream press reports which sometimes aren't that accurate.
I don't know what emergency approval means and what the time frame for distribution in various countries would be - to complicate things some countries will have agreements for one or both of the two vaccines nearing the end of phase 3.
For example, Australia has agreement to make the Oxford vaccine and our own UQ one that is much further off potential final approval but not the Pfizer one as far as I know.
Does anyone actually believe China's reporting?
cool, thanks for the info - A confirmed vaccines would be the best xmas prezzie ever!
It really would.
That will be a massive problem for the EU though surely with freedom of movement.
Ah well that's probably not going to be such a high proportion. Good point.
So let's say a vaccine is made, how long after its available will stuff go back to "normal" ?
That isn't that simple a question I suspect especially as manufacture, distribution and administration could take some time given how many people there are in the world.
If we went into Christmas 2021/22 with a world well on the way back to something like normality I think that would be a major victory
My guess would be 2 years but I doubt we will see a return to the old normal.
Maybe, but I'm talking about Italy here. It was everywhere before we even knew it had left China. Nobody will be caught out like that again, or at least they shouldn't be. We can all see it coming now.