SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

NinjaFletch said:
Am I losing my mind?

This is the PHE data most recently released:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Figure 19 and 20 clearly show that workplaces and education settings are driving the wave and that hospitality has an absolutely negligible effect on it.

So why are we clambering over ourselves to argue about exactly how strict things should be, and not addressing the elephant in the room that it is simply not possible to teach kids safely and that employers have failed to make workplaces "covid secure".

I'm sure my moaning comes from a selfish place (hell, I know it does), but I simply cannot for the life of me understand why we're diverting all our attention to making miniscule changes to people's ability to actually do anything remotely fun over the next six months when it's such a tiny sticking plaster on the absolutely huge gaping wound that is education and workplaces.
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I think you’re right, unfortunately. I saw a Twitter thread from a public health physician in Israel. He was absolutely convinced that it was their schools which drove their outbreak. Right the way into a second full lockdown.

Maybe less of an issue for very young kids (creches opened in the UK ages before surge started) but secondary schools seem to be riddled with the virus. Looks as though one of the biggest factor in keeping things under control over summer was keeping the kids out of school. Everywhere we look, shit starts going south within weeks of them starting up again.

It does seem harsh to put such strict restrictions on the hospitality sector when the issues are elsewhere. It’s obviously the most politically palatable scapegoat.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I think you’re right, unfortunately. I saw a Twitter thread from a public health physician in Israel. He was absolutely convinced that it was their schools which drove their outbreak. Right the way into a second full lockdown.

Maybe less of an issue for very young kids (creches opened in the UK ages before surge started) but secondary schools seem to be riddled with the virus. Looks as though one of the biggest factor in keeping things under control over summer was keeping the kids out of school. Everywhere we look, shit starts going south within weeks of them starting up again.

It does seem harsh to put such strict restrictions on the hospitality sector when the issues are elsewhere. It’s obviously the most politically palatable scapegoat.
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Which begs the question, how many people are governments willing to let die for kids to be in school. I can well understand that people would be able to put forward a case that that number is not zero (I understand that this is essentially the sort of calculation that health services make on a micro scale all the time), but I bet the public appetite for death is a lot lower than the actual number would be.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I think you’re right, unfortunately. I saw a Twitter thread from a public health physician in Israel. He was absolutely convinced that it was their schools which drove their outbreak. Right the way into a second full lockdown.

Maybe less of an issue for very young kids (creches opened in the UK ages before surge started) but secondary schools seem to be riddled with the virus. Looks as though one of the biggest factor in keeping things under control over summer was keeping the kids out of school. Everywhere we look, shit starts going south within weeks of them starting up again.

It does seem harsh to put such strict restrictions on the hospitality sector when the issues are elsewhere. It’s obviously the most politically palatable scapegoat.
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Schools are always a driver with viruses so it would be very surprising if they weren't involved in this pandemic, even if younger kids seem to possibly get infected less often, certainly get far less severe or no symptoms, albeit with it still seeming largely unknown how much they can transmit once infected. Secondary schools are surely a concern as it is the U9's that are least effected.
 
I don’t fully understand why schools have to be kept open at all costs. Except of course that the Government just want the parents in work. I understand that people want their kids to be educated and have the social interaction that goes with it but what’s the point when those same kids futures are being destroyed?
 
Solius said:
Reading NZ beat Covid again. God I miss that place.
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NZ has eradicated again. Victoria continues to tread downwards towards zero even if there is still some community transmission occurring. NSW went 11 days without a case of community transmission but frustratingly 3 cases popped up yesterday, which may reset the clock on opening the border with QLD which was due in November.

Given how hard it has been for AU to get back to very low levels of infection you wonder what it would now take in most countries to massively reduce infections especially given the northern winter is coming, which can't help. The world really fecked this one up even though some countries fecked it up worse than others.
 
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There seems to be a few in my work place who have got it, the frustrating thing is no one is telling us about it, we are hearing someone in our area from the other shift has it, we weren't told but other rooms were told.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
My personal preference would be to close pubs before stopping sports (with no fans watching, obviously) I’m not 100% sure of relative risks but it seems obvious that drunk people crammed into indoor spaces is considerably higher risk than sober people playing football together, outdoors. Indoor sports more risky but with good ventilation and sensible precautions they’re probably ok. The problem with pubs is that people get drunk and drunk people are terrible at implementing sensible precautions. That’s why they’re not allowed to drive cars.
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What measures are taken to ensure safe opening of pubs? Here you have to electronically register prior to entry, apply hand sanitiser (some even take your temperature), most remove or close about 50% of tables (there is a customer per sqm rule I think) and you aren't allowed to stand other than to go to the bar to order (all seating). Each pub must also have a specific identified covid marshall to enforce the rules and you often see the cops dropping in to check. The fines for getting it wrong are big and a few places have had their licences suspended for a period of time for not complying. I'm guessing the UK and Ireland aren't requlating to this extent.
 
Wibble said:
Schools are always a driver with viruses so it would be very surprising if they weren't involved in this pandemic, even if younger kids seem to possibly get infected less often, certainly get far less severe or no symptoms, albeit with it still seeming largely unknown how much they can transmit once infected. Secondary schools are surely a concern as it is the U9's that are least effected.
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My wife works in a large primary school. On average I'd say they are made aware of one positive test per week. Dozens of children are off on a weekly basis whilst they wait for test results after having symptoms
The most frustrating thing is that she is now off work and isolating for the second time after parents had their child tested, sent them into school BEFORE they have had the results of the test, only for them to subsequently test positive.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Am I losing my mind?

This is the PHE data most recently released:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Figure 19 and 20 clearly show that workplaces and education settings are driving the wave and that hospitality has an absolutely negligible effect on it.

So why are we clambering over ourselves to argue about exactly how strict things should be, and not addressing the elephant in the room that it is simply not possible to teach kids safely and that employers have failed to make workplaces "covid secure".

I'm sure my moaning comes from a selfish place (hell, I know it does), but I simply cannot for the life of me understand why we're diverting all our attention to making miniscule changes to people's ability to actually do anything remotely fun over the next six months when it's such a tiny sticking plaster on the absolutely huge gaping wound that is education and workplaces.
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I think most people would argue it makes sense to prioritise the wider economy and education over fun, and so what they're doing is whittling away at the at the stuff around the edges until the only thing left is those two. They foreshadowed this with public health experts saying they may have to close pubs to keep schools open in August, and the majority accepted it. I wouldn't rule out those two being on the horizon as well as, rather than instead of, these restrictions.

I do think the scale of transmission in schools changes that equation somewhat though. It was suggested that young kids aren't much of a concern back in August, but primary schools have 10x as many clusters as universities, and education is the source of 5x as many cases vs. restaurants, pubs, and seemingly every other leisure activity. Those figures don't seem to fit with their projections, so surely they should at least be revising the model.

If it was put to the public that you could stop the surge in transmission entirely by taking kids out of school, and all other recent restrictions could be removed, how many people would agree? I'd guess it would be a majority. Especially if they provided real figures for how many jobs will be lost in hospitality because of it.

The problem with the education system is it's less flexible. A couple of months of no school means the entire school year is fecked, the curriculum is very rigid in that way. Whereas a couple of months without pubs means nothing when people go straight back to normal routines afterwards.

The other thing is about mental health. People are quick to point to pubs being important for people's mental health, which is true to a point, but I'd imagine it's more true for schools. Some affluent and like minded families have found the extra time with their kids a net benefit but loads were close to breaking point being teacher, carer and worker all day long. On balance I'd say it's much more of a risk to long term mental health.
 
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christy87 said:
There seems to be a few in my work place who have got it, the frustrating thing is no one is telling us about it, we are hearing someone in our area from the other shift has it, we weren't told but other rooms were told.
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The White House is no place to work these days.
 
Drifter said:
council-to-reopen-america.jpg

Oh dear.
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There must be a suitable collective noun.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Am I losing my mind?

This is the PHE data most recently released:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Figure 19 and 20 clearly show that workplaces and education settings are driving the wave and that hospitality has an absolutely negligible effect on it.

So why are we clambering over ourselves to argue about exactly how strict things should be, and not addressing the elephant in the room that it is simply not possible to teach kids safely and that employers have failed to make workplaces "covid secure".

I'm sure my moaning comes from a selfish place (hell, I know it does), but I simply cannot for the life of me understand why we're diverting all our attention to making miniscule changes to people's ability to actually do anything remotely fun over the next six months when it's such a tiny sticking plaster on the absolutely huge gaping wound that is education and workplaces.
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Big money trumps leisure. The greater economy takes precedence. That's the sad fact of the broken world we live in. In order to survive, we must sacrifice lives to make rich people richer.

Anyways, I think you made a good observation about schools. One thing many governments realized is what people call "super spreader" events. Any situation where large groups of people congregate and social distancing is difficult can potentially lead to that. Especially if it is in closed spaces. Schools, construction sites and religious events are examples of this. School children have no concern for hygiene in their behavior and they can hardly social distance in the closed environment of their classes.

Some countries actually implemented measures to combat this. E.g. Mandatory testing of school teachers and students before reopening. Rostered classrooms where classes take turns between studying from home and studying in school. Priority given to classes facing national exams, like O levels. Regular surveillance testing to catch outbreaks before they get out of control. I'm not sure if the UK has had any of these measures.

It's a crime to see how europe did so well to contain the virus only to cock it up with overly aggressive reopenings. Was there a lack of social distancing/testing/surevillance testing protocols? UK and EU even opened borders early without even a concern for checking respective country 7 day infection rate averages, right? UK was still at ~1000 cases a day when they reopened with Spain and Italy who were down to ~100 cases a day, IIRC.
 
calodo2003 said:
The White House is no place to work these days.
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:lol: :lol: , seriously though I was sitting down at lunch and overheard 2 women talk about COVID in the factory, they mentioned that one room was the talk of the factory and then they mentioned my area has a confirmed case, point of all this is you miss out on a lot of what’s going on when you don’t have a talkative smoker working in your area, we’d heard nothing off no one, in fact the buddies misses had heard about it before we had and she’s out on maternity.
 
christy87 said:
:lol: :lol: , seriously though I was sitting down at lunch and overheard 2 women talk about COVID in the factory, they mentioned that one room was the talk of the factory and then they mentioned my area has a confirmed case, point of all this is you miss out on a lot of what’s going on when you don’t have a talkative smoker working in your area, we’d heard nothing off no one, in fact the buddies misses had heard about it before we had and she’s out on maternity.
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Where is this if you don’t mind me asking? Location on earth, not specific name of factory.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Video called my dad and his wife in Australia and had to politely end the call quickly before I exploded. They're apparently going to pop down to the beach even though it's closed because she "can't walk near our house as the hills are too steep" and they've had family over for coffee but it's ok because they were six feet apart on the veranda, none of them have colds, all the usual bullshit. I told them that just because the curve is going down doesn't mean it can't come back to hit them in the arse so stay indoors and stop having people over, but it fell on deaf ears because apparently their health service is a million times better than ours.

My dad has fecking Parkinson's and he's in his seventies ffs. Told them "don't have anyone over, make the smart choices and stay safe" and ended the call.
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Where are they?
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Video called my dad and his wife in Australia and had to politely end the call quickly before I exploded. They're apparently going to pop down to the beach even though it's closed because she "can't walk near our house as the hills are too steep" and they've had family over for coffee but it's ok because they were six feet apart on the veranda, none of them have colds, all the usual bullshit. I told them that just because the curve is going down doesn't mean it can't come back to hit them in the arse so stay indoors and stop having people over, but it fell on deaf ears because apparently their health service is a million times better than ours.

My dad has fecking Parkinson's and he's in his seventies ffs. Told them "don't have anyone over, make the smart choices and stay safe" and ended the call.
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Isn't it something to cherish that even at their age, in their condition and in these circumstances, they're still willing and able to live freely (within a broad spectrum of responsible choices)? You value their lives more than their freedom, which most people can relate to, but should they?
 
Wibble said:
Where are they?
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Brwned said:
Isn't it something to cherish that even at their age, in their condition and in these circumstances, they're still willing and able to live freely (within a broad spectrum of responsible choices)? You value their lives more than their freedom, which most people can relate to, but should they?
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Wait, why are you both quoting something from April? :lol:
 
Wibble said:
What measures are taken to ensure safe opening of pubs? Here you have to electronically register prior to entry, apply hand sanitiser (some even take your temperature), most remove or close about 50% of tables (there is a customer per sqm rule I think) and you aren't allowed to stand other than to go to the bar to order (all seating). Each pub must also have a specific identified covid marshall to enforce the rules and you often see the cops dropping in to check. The fines for getting it wrong are big and a few places have had their licences suspended for a period of time for not complying. I'm guessing the UK and Ireland aren't requlating to this extent.
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Pretty much all of the above is what was happening in Ireland in the pubs I've visited before they closed them again. The only difference is that yes you've to book in advance but it doesn't have to be electronic and we don't have marshalls as far as I'm aware.

It's baffling, at the beginning they decided the pubs would be the last places to open but we didn't have a huge amount of evidence of anything at that stage.


The govt won't budge on it now but haven't really provided any evidence to back up the idea that pubs/restaurants are responsible for the spread of covid.

The only evidence I've seen is that American study of 314 people where they found those infected were twice as likely to have visited a bar/restaurant. It's a very small sample size and we don't know anything about the measures implemented in these places. They did say that those infected were less likely to have reported others wearing masks and social distancing.

Even in the summary it says that bars/restaurants might be important risk factors.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a5.htm

In Ireland we aren't actually gathering information about where the disease came from. I get that the contact tracers are more concerned with finding out who you could have given it to and there are limited budgets/time constraints but it seems a wasted opportunity.
 
Wibble said:
What measures are taken to ensure safe opening of pubs? Here you have to electronically register prior to entry, apply hand sanitiser (some even take your temperature), most remove or close about 50% of tables (there is a customer per sqm rule I think) and you aren't allowed to stand other than to go to the bar to order (all seating). Each pub must also have a specific identified covid marshall to enforce the rules and you often see the cops dropping in to check. The fines for getting it wrong are big and a few places have had their licences suspended for a period of time for not complying. I'm guessing the UK and Ireland aren't requlating to this extent.
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Nah, we have basically the same measures here.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Am I losing my mind?

This is the PHE data most recently released:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Figure 19 and 20 clearly show that workplaces and education settings are driving the wave and that hospitality has an absolutely negligible effect on it.

So why are we clambering over ourselves to argue about exactly how strict things should be, and not addressing the elephant in the room that it is simply not possible to teach kids safely and that employers have failed to make workplaces "covid secure".

I'm sure my moaning comes from a selfish place (hell, I know it does), but I simply cannot for the life of me understand why we're diverting all our attention to making miniscule changes to people's ability to actually do anything remotely fun over the next six months when it's such a tiny sticking plaster on the absolutely huge gaping wound that is education and workplaces.
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I mentioned this about two weeks ago, in that educational settings is the biggest elephant in the room at the minute.

F-Red said:
I think the elephant in the room is the re-opening of schools & universities. Going on nights and out and visiting will pale into insignificance compared to the impact that schools will have on the transmission of the virus. It's a necessary evil as children need some form of normality, but with the increased contact that setting provides, the government need to balance against restricting others. Easier said than done sadly.
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The workplace increases is less down to covid secure measures, but more about children at school passing it onto parents, and then transmission coming into the workplace environment. There's been no real fluctuation in their incidents until the kids have gone back to school.

The problem with the pubs & restaurants angle is that it's an easy target for public critics, as the sheer aspect of social enjoyment in those places at a time where there is great frustration around restriction of movement, is enough to highlight it as a problem. It's probably one of the more controlled environments that you could perhaps visit currently.
 
Wibble said:
That is good. Is the UK similar because some of the posting on here made is sound like a free for all?
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the pubs I’ve been to have been fine and you’re not even allowed to go to the bar to order drinks it’s table service only with mandatory track and trace details when you arrive. The issue will be with the pubs and bars that don’t really give a shit
 
In Ireland our pubs aren’t even open. Most of them anyway. Restaurants were allowed open so any pub that could serve a “substantial meal” was allowed reopen. They had to comply with strict regulations as described by @Wibble above, plus nobody was allowed to stay more than two hours. There’s been some piss-taking about what constitutes a meal and lots of anecdotes about people finding ways to outstay their allocated slot but generally they’ve done their best to be fully compliant. With hundreds of pubs up and down the country shuttered since March.

It’s starting to feel very harsh the way they remain such a focus of the restrictions when transmission is so rife in other workplaces and schools and people are still hosting piss ups in their homes.

And don’t get me fecking started on communion parties...
 
Pogue Mahone said:
In Ireland our pubs aren’t even open. Most of them anyway. Restaurants were allowed open so any pub that could serve a “substantial meal” was allowed reopen. They had to comply with strict regulations as described by @Wibble above, plus nobody was allowed to stay more than two hours. There’s been some piss-taking about what constitutes a meal and lots of anecdotes about people finding ways to outstay their allocated slot but generally they’ve done their best to be fully compliant. With hundreds of pubs up and down the country shuttered since March.

It’s starting to feel very harsh the way they remain such a focus of the restrictions when transmission is so rife in other workplaces and schools and people are still hosting piss ups in their homes.

And don’t get me fecking started on communion parties...
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"Starting to"? It's always been a load of bollox. Especially having Dublin in level 3 yet somehow all the pubs are closed, but the rest of the country is fine. It's already been proven that pubs being open has had pretty much no impact on cases either.
 
Massive Spanner said:
"Starting to"? It's always been a load of bollox. Especially having Dublin in level 3 yet somehow all the pubs are closed, but the rest of the country is fine. It's already been proven that pubs being open has had pretty much no impact on cases either.
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Seeing as pubs still haven’t opened, I would say that is pretty difficult to prove!
 
Brwned said:
One thing to add is that they might have a good (and also terrible) reason for not being transparent: they're handling it very badly, and being more open would only lead to more civil disobedience (not less) among those who are fed up, while panicking those who already worry.

For example, if they were to talk about the contact tracing system openly, many more people would get this message:



So while a lot of the talk on here about contact tracing failures has been about the system, it has more to do with poor cooperation from society in part because they don't trust the entire government response. All it does is impose additional burdens on people without providing appropriate support, and it doesn't even work anyway, so why bother.

Side note: cooperation is even worse in France, the US, Germany.
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I agree. Although, whilst other Governments have evidently done a better job, (as much as it pains me to say it, being very firmly left on centre) I'm not sure anyone has really done all that much better. Certainly, post-lockdowns, nobody has really got this cracked and we're all awaiting a vaccine to get back to any semblance of normality.

The contact tracing issue is a big one and if people don't co-operate then how can we expect it to succeed?

My opinion, as a society, we were largely willing to co-operate at the start in the face of an unprecedented threat, with warnings that half a million could die and stadiums being turned into hospitals with death on an industrial scale. The reality is, that (for whatever reason, and clearly locking down had a major impact) that never came to pass and I believe most (and especially the young) have no fear of the virus anymore since statistically they think they're very unlikely to suffer. The fear factor is gone, there is no force of will and without that you're into having to enforce with neither the resources, nor the mandate to do it. I suspect that is now the same the world over.
 
Massive Spanner said:
"Starting to"? It's always been a load of bollox. Especially having Dublin in level 3 yet somehow all the pubs are closed, but the rest of the country is fine. It's already been proven that pubs being open has had pretty much no impact on cases either.
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Pubs are seen in Belgium as one of the major infection hubs. Weird how it's different from country to country.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Am I losing my mind?

This is the PHE data most recently released:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Figure 19 and 20 clearly show that workplaces and education settings are driving the wave and that hospitality has an absolutely negligible effect on it.

So why are we clambering over ourselves to argue about exactly how strict things should be, and not addressing the elephant in the room that it is simply not possible to teach kids safely and that employers have failed to make workplaces "covid secure".

I'm sure my moaning comes from a selfish place (hell, I know it does), but I simply cannot for the life of me understand why we're diverting all our attention to making miniscule changes to people's ability to actually do anything remotely fun over the next six months when it's such a tiny sticking plaster on the absolutely huge gaping wound that is education and workplaces.
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This might very well be true (and for the record, I don't think hospitality should be forced to close either) but what's the solution? The economy needs to function and kids need to be educated. Without both we cause far reaching damage well in excess of anything the virus will do.

I seem to be slowly coming to the view that without a vaccine, there appears little that can be done to prevent infection other than a further lockdown which is itself a disaster.
 
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