Well that seems like a well-balanced and thoughtful site. I particularly like their non-leading name.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
30,000 school pupils according to ONS figures on October 2nd, according to PHE's COVID-19 epidemiology surveillance summary show that educational settings are attributable for 45% of the positive cases. No surprise really.
Yeah I kinda ignored the domain, but the data of outbreaks seems a little bit more factual.
But it doesn't tell you anything about the risk of having schools open. Yes, schools have closed because children or staff have tested positive. However, there's no data showing that those people contracted the virus at school, or that having those positive cases have led to further community transmission. All it says is that schools are taking a very cautious approach, with huge disruption to kids education.
I assume that a spreader is likely to be someone symptomatic which is why kids are less likely to spread it as they are predominantly asymptomatic? So the chance of being a spreader increases with the chances of being symptomatic which seems to broadly correlate with age?
Is it just a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since schools have been open?
Also. See my post above re secondary school age children and whether they are passing the virus on during school, or after school. We’ve no idea but seems likely the risk is much higher when away from prying eyes of teachers.
No, but your point around whether outbreaks on schools and being linked to more built up areas is supported by the data there is what I'm saying.
No one knows the actual risk of having schools open, you won't get that from the data. The fact that educational settings attribute to 45% of cases in the ONS would suggest it's having a significant impact at the minute, plus also you have the secondary school age group which opens a different discussion on whether it's coming from inside or outside of the school. Either way, contact is the issue. Areas which will increase close contact are higher risks than others, which still puts school at a higher risk bracket for me than areas of hospitality.
I’ve no idea. Lots of theories but nobody knows for certain. I can confirm that primary age kids are absolutely rubbish at social distancing so that’s definitely not protecting them.
I'm really struggling to find the logic behind this reasoning. Schools aren't creating cases they're multiplying what's in the community so density of the area is always a huge factor.
Over a very long period you're probably correct as it would even out but high densisty areas have a quicker rate of increase.
Surely the clue is in the number. Bars and household mixing have been allowed since July. Schools have been open since the start of September. It was two weeks after this that cases exploded. Nothing was stopping teenagers mixing before schools opened so why have they increased all of a sudden?
Thanks.
In what time frame is that 30.000, and how does it compare to total infections or uni cases.
Also that surveillance report seemed flawed at best, just had a quick look though.
In Finland we know where the infection came from around 40% of the time, and our positivity rate is about 1.5%. So our situation is about 4 times better than in UK, relative to positivity rate and numbers of infection per 100k. And we still don’t know where the infection came from 60% of the time. So I think in UK that number is probably over 80%. So it is not possible to only look at data from the known infections when they are only tiny part of all the infections.
I suspect you know that isn't the standard deviation. It might be the range, if the anecdotal evidence is accurate, but that's it. I figure you have some kind of stake in schools because you're making a very strong argument based on data we don't seem to have. If you think I'm doing the same then you've probably read into my words a bit too much.
A week's worth of data. Don't know university cases specifically.
How so? Not disputing an opinion, but curious as to why you think it's flawed.
This? It is easier if you provide a link
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ot/englandwalesandnorthernireland2october2020And figure 5? It shows the infections from age 2 to school year 6 in going down! And 6-7 times less than school year 12 to 24 years old. So absolutely no evidence to even consider closing schools for under 12 year olds.
Because if most cases are from un-known sources it is very easy to make wrong assumptions by just using known cases. That is of course bigger problem for people using that data, than for the ones that present it. But nonetheless I think the way they presented it was misleading. (Chance I read it wrong, since I didn't use that much time on it)
This? It is easier if you provide a link
And figure 5? It shows the infections from age 2 to school year 6 in going down! And 6-7 times less than school year 12 to 24 years old. So absolutely no evidence to even consider closing schools for under 12 year olds.
Because if most cases are from un-known sources it is very easy to make wrong assumptions by just using known cases. That is of course bigger problem for people using that data, than for the ones that present it. But nonetheless I think the way they presented it was misleading. (Chance I read it wrong, since I didn't use that much time on it)
The surveillance report is this one - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports
All the links you’ve shown give no indicator that primary schools are an issue, based on the age of people getting infected. Secondary schools could be a problem but rise in secondary school age is exactly matched by young adults just past school age, so makes you wonder how much is school and how much is socialising driven indoors now weather has deteriorated (what’s the weather been like in the uk? been miserable in Ireland for the last few weeks)
I know. And where in there is the 30k figure. You are making this harder than it needs to be, which page, which table/figure. You just looked at total in the age groups of 5-19? That doesn't tell the infections happened in school. And grouping of 5-12 year olds with 13-19 year olds is rather pointless.
Possibly, but the timing of schools going back attributes the rise in cases. The issue I see coming is you can't close one and not the other, if you're a parent with kids at primary and secondary, it brings a whole practical challenge around work. As I said two weeks ago, the reality of this is easier said than done sadly.
Really worried about the rapid increase in cases in Germany. Last week was the first time we crossed 3000 daily cases since April, and yesterday we crossed 4000. The rate of increase is going up in recent weeks.
Looking into the stats a bit deeper, it seems Berlin has become a hotspot in the last week and has played a large role in contributing to the increased cases. For Munich (where I am), the daily cases seem to have steadied after an initial increase.
Looking into the stats a bit deeper, it seems Berlin has become a hotspot in the last week and has played a large role in contributing to the increased cases. For Munich (where I am), the daily cases seem to have steadied after an initial increase.
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You're getting mixed up here, and making it harder for yourself. To clarify, the 30k figure comes from the ONS data.
You commented:
To which I asked:
I.e - why is the surveillance report flawed?
This? It is easier if you provide a link
To which you respond referencing the ONS report is flawed, not the Surveillance report from PHE.
Back to your point:
If you're looking at the absolute numbers of the data then yes, but the practicality of society having one section of education open, and the other closed, probably causes more challenges to parents than providing a solution. Back to the very original point in this discussion two weeks ago now, it was about educational settings being the elephant in the room at the minute. The government and general public consensus is that pubs/restaurant settings are the challenge for the spread of this virus, and the argument back then was that the elephant in the room that everyone is ignoring and not mentioning is that the education settings are a large contributor to what we're seeing in the UK right now. In reality, which we've seen so far, the 10pm curfew on pubs has done little to reduce case numbers, and has acted as a bit of a window dressing.
Yeah, the timing is hard to ignore. Plus, as you say, closing secondary schools while leaving primary schools open causes its own problems.
Just on our way from the airport now - the airline said nothing about it, but we were told by the border police to go get a test, which we did. Results came in half an hour (both negative).
I wouldn’t recommend the nasal swab unless you like having something shoved up as far as your eye socket (twice).
Edit - the police checked your result before you were allowed to leave, they were making sure no-one slipped in and out without the test.
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I didn't say ONS was flawed. It was separate paragraph to illustrate I was talking about surveillance report. I could have indeed made it more obvious.
I am still unsure which table or figure that 30k is coming from.
If practicalities dictate that it is impossible to close school just for over 13 years old (or 14/15/16 where ever one wants to put the line) then so be it. I don't have capabilities to comment on it. But the distinction between age groups should be made when others are having that conversation.
How far away do you think we are from Boris just saying ''Right everyone, i am not going to force restrictions on you now. You are all adults, and here are the risks. Over to you.''
Also as i understand the track and trace system it is pointless in its current form. I have not used it, as i dont see any benefit at all in knowing if i have been near someone who has tested positive..... If i know this, i am forced to isolate. If i am unaware i don't have to isolate. Ignorance is bliss and all. Or am i wrong here?
AND if it tells me i have been near somebody who has tested positive - should that person not be prosecuted for being out and about after a positive test?
Also as i understand the track and trace system it is pointless in its current form. I have not used it, as i dont see any benefit at all in knowing if i have been near someone who has tested positive..... If i know this, i am forced to isolate. If i am unaware i don't have to isolate. Ignorance is bliss and all. Or am i wrong here?
AND if it tells me i have been near somebody who has tested positive - should that person not be prosecuted for being out and about after a positive test?
I wonder if the young kids are not turning up in the positive test numbers because they’re much less likely to be symptomatic? Which in turn raises the possibility that they’re silent spreaders. So many unknowns still, even as we close in on 12 months living with this virus
The ONS random sampling takes that into account. They just are less infected.
Just on our way from the airport now - the airline said nothing about it, but we were told by the border police to go get a test, which we did. Results came in half an hour (both negative).
I wouldn’t recommend the nasal swab unless you like having something shoved up as far as your eye socket (twice).
Edit - the police checked your result before you were allowed to leave, they were making sure no-one slipped in and out without the test.
Yeah, i know lots of people who have had the swab and it doesn't sound pleasant.
Anyway, good to see the process is so efficient. Not so good to see the UK government website knows more about Italy's procedures than Italy.
Ah. Cool. Didn’t realise they did random sampling. That’s very reassuring. Absolutely no reason to close primary schools then.
I think Massi's pointing out that the sample of cases that they can trace back to a specific location is likely very low, and it won't be randomly distributed, it will have selection bias. So even if school cases account for 40% of all traced cases, it doesn't mean that it accounts for 40% of all cases.
Schools presumably have more stringent requirements on reporting, and they have better information on the people behind the cases. They know not only who had the first case but who they were alongside, so tracing is simpler. Pubs on the other hand have much more limited information on people and have to rely on the contact tracing network to identify folks they were in contact with, which as per the NYT reporting is very unsuccessful. At the same time, those who do contract the virus don't have to list all of the pubs they've been to, that's information they can choose not to disclose, and also in the case of some super spreader socialites, it may not even be information that they recall.
So the questions are what proportion of all cases were successfully traced, and how over represented are schools / under represented are hospitality. Massi's hypothesis that they represent a small proportion and schools are over represented seems logical. Especially with the overall case numbers for those age groups. Have to admit I didn't look into the report much beyond a quick glance at the numbers either so that to be misleading.
Any chance you Nordies could sort your shit out? We’re sharing a small island with you. Thanks.
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Border towns. You’re clearly causing problems for us up here.
Just spent a week in Germany and was really impressed with the general public and their use of masks absolutely everywhere indoors. Didn’t see a single person who wasn’t wearing one, and even outside in open areas many still wore them.
Everywhere was signed to show them as compulsory and there was hand sanitiser everywhere, menus all moved to QR codes to be accessed via your phone rather than handed out, and limits on how people were seated etc.
A lot of this is being done here (UK) too, but it all just felt like it was being taken more seriously there.
All of that is happening in Ireland too. Yet both Germany and Ireland are having a surge in cases too. It’s so frustrating. Feels like so much hard work from everyone to be compliant, all to no avail. My heart bleeds for pubs/restaurants who have go to so much effort to bring in a maximum of 25 - 30% of their usual income over the last few months and they’re still going to end up shuttered in the next few weeks.
Whilst that may be true, in terms of their current positions which countries are significantly better off? Everywhere in Europe we're seeing a resurgence of cases. Nobody has unlocked this, perhaps because, without a vaccine the stark reality is you can't supress or control a virus like this without completely shutting down and causing chaos.
People still keep mentioning Cummings even now. Where I live at least 50% of the people (if not more) will still have no idea who he is because they take no interest in politics. If they're flouting rules it's not because they've seen him doing it, it's because they are either no longer (or for whatever reason were never) scared of the virus and want to get on with their lives and do what they always do. Rightly or wrongly, that's how I believe it is.
New Zealand's course of action seems heavily dependent on suppressing until (and if) there is a vaccine because without, they've just kicked the can down the road. Their PM may be popular now but the tide can soon turn if there's an economic effect, or if there's an outbreak months after the rest of the world has seen the worst of it.
However charismatic you are, I personally don't believe you can convince a majority of people to put their lives on hold indefinitely. All over the world people are tiring of this. It's human nature. Forcing a change like that on people needs a threat behind it. History tells us that. The threat of the virus is now a normal part of life which many, many people are clearly prepared to accept.
Just been in Sainsburys. No sanitiser anywhere near the petrol station, either at the pumps or the shop entrance or in the shop. As for the main store there is some at the entrance, but none inside anywhere at all. Morrisons has hand gel everywhere, at the entrance, and the exit, the ends of the aisles, and outside the toilets. Sainsburys is rubbish nowadays.
One thing’s for certain. It looks as though all European countries opened back up too soon. Original lockdown should have been extended for several weeks longer to crush case numbers completely, so we’d have a chance of properly dealing with any clusters that arise in the future. Particularly frustrating living in Ireland where we did actually manage to get daily cases down to single digits but that was pissing in the wind with the virus still circulating in large numbers in countries with which we have open borders.
It seems to reinforce the suggestion that the spread is from elsewhere, with the PHE data seeming to support it being way more down to schools and workplaces.
Pubs/bars/restaurants are an easy scapegoat though and it’s easy for the DM etc to print pics of people sitting outside pubs and blame them for causing the spread when it doesn’t seem to be borne out by the data.