We know this:
1. His finishing is elite. Despite the lack of service he still performs better than half of his forward colleagues in the prem in terms of goals per minutes played. That’s because he converts more chances than nearly everyone else - more than half his shots are on target, one in four of his shots result in goals and he outperforms his XG.
2. He rarely gets a chance to pass the ball, but when he does he delivers. Especially his long passing is very good - top 10 % among forwards. He’s short passing is ok, but can improve even though he usually is under quite a lot of pressure when receiving the ball. He also has more key passes than most.
3. Contrary to what some seem to think he controls the ball well - he has fewer miscontrolled balls and gets dispossessed less than most.
4. Add to that his high rate of successful take ons and you have a striker who can do a lot more than just score goals.
5. His one very big problem is he’s not involved enough. He has fewer passes, shots and lower xg than 75 - 80 % of forwards.
It seems quite straight forward: Get him involved and put him in decent scoring positions more often and he will get a lot more goals and assists. How much that is up to him improving his positioning, his teammates passing to him more often or EtH changing things I don’t know. But I’ve seen enough to say that he has been in favorable positions numerous times without getting the ball.
I expect him to be more involved and get more chances so 20-25 goals and 5-10 assists shouldn’t be unrealistic. I think the club expects the same but it all depends on context - if we score a lot of goals where he contributes with good hold up play, lay offs and by keeping defenders busy that will count as well.
