First time?
Life after ETH — the next United manager
- Thread starter Red Star One
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I voted Tuchel because he seems like a realistic option. Not because he'd be my choice in an ideal scenario.
In any case, whether anyone makes sense - ultimately - depends entirely on who's hiring him and with what in mind.
(Yeah, that's a terrible sentence.)
In any case, whether anyone makes sense - ultimately - depends entirely on who's hiring him and with what in mind.
(Yeah, that's a terrible sentence.)
Could see the potential for Tuchel being a perfect fit for United. Definitely not risk free though. The fact he’s been successful with a Premier League cup is a big advantage.
Oh yeah there's no doubt he has risks but would rather that than Erik ruining my support for rest of the season which could well happen
Thanks for this.So I don't know if this is a good methodology for picking managers given that its still very early in the new season (small sample size), there is still a lot of difference in the relative difficulty of the fixture list for different teams, and all said and done, I don't actually know if xPts is a metric that reflects anything at all (I don't want to reopen the debate about whether our xG being roughly the same as Liverpool's in our 3-0 thrashing tells us if we've been unlucky, or if xG leaves out a lot of context) but I thought I'd figure out which teams have started the best in terms of underlying numbers and use this as a way of figuring out which teams have the most interesting managers. So, I went to Understat and got the xPts numbers for every team in Europe's top 5 leagues (England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy) and since different leagues have had different number of matchdays so far, I converted xPts into xPts/Match and then ranked the teams according to xPts/Match. I've listed the top 10 here (expected rank in their league is based on xPts) -
Team PTS xPTS xPTS/Match Actual Rank in Their League Expected Rank in Their League Manager Paris Saint Germain Luis Enrique Liverpool Arne Slot Bayern Munich Vincent Kompany Barcelona Hansi Flick Monaco Adolf Hutter Lazio Marco Baroni AC Milan Paulo Fonseca Inter Simone Inzaghi VfB Stuttgart Sebastian Hoeness Fulham Marco Silva
Unsurprisingly, most teams at the top of xPts are also near the top of actual points in the league so far. Also unsurprisingly, we see the usual contenders at the top of this table - PSG, Bayern, Barcelona. Also shows how well Liverpool have started under Slot - even if their fixture list to start has been kind, their xG numbers show they've been sweeping aside 'lesser' teams without any hitches. But then we get to the surprising names (which might offer up names for us to consider?) -
1. Monaco - They are top of the table in Ligue 1 this season, 2 clear of PSG. I can't say I know much about Hutter beyond his spell at Borussia Monchengladbach, which was quite underwhelming overall. They finished midtable in the league (10th, google tells me). But they had a memorable result where they beat Nagelsman's Bayern 5-0 in the cup. Not sure if he is any good, if they've just had an easy start, or if this is a Jardim type perfect storm situation and they'll surprise everyone this season. Worth noting they've also beaten Barcelona in the Champions League.
2. Lazio - Haven't watched them at all this season. Have never heard of Marco Baroni. Haven't even heard anyone mention them as a team to watch early in the season. I am completely baffled by them apparently leading Serie A in expected points so far. I guess this is just a quirk of xG models and an easier start to the season. They are top of the standings in the Europa League after 2 games so they might be actually good?
3. AC Milan - Also surprised at them apparently being the second best team in Serie A on xPts so far. Not really a big fan of Paulo Fonseca and they had tension with the fans to start the season. Notable results - lost to both Liverpool and Leverkusen in the Champions League, beat Inter in the league. Not an option for us I don't think.
4. Inter - Look a bit sluggish to start the season, especially compared to last season. Only 2 points behind leaders Napoli in the league (Napoli are 6th in the league on xPts, for the record) and played very well in the Champions League against City, I thought. Unsurprising to see them on the list - genuinely one of the best teams in Europe with genuinely one of the best managers in Europe. Simone Inzaghi might be gettable and would probably be a great choice.
5. Stuttgart - We get to the reason I made up this whole list in the first place. Stuttgart lost 2 of their starting back 4 (Anton went to Dortmund and Ito went to Bayern) and their top goal scorer (Guirassy went to Dortmund), and made really only two big singings (one of which - Undav - was already on loan from Brighton last season, they just made the transfer permanent) but continue to show good performances. The losses are showing an impact though. They look slightly suspect defensively, and have been made to pay for defensive errors. Attack continues to be great, though. Hence, underlying numbers continue to be great but they've not converted underlying metrics to actual points and they languish in 8th in the table. Also, worth pointing out that they've only barely made it onto this list. Their xPts are 11.97 - marginally ahead of Leverkusen at 11.87 (5th in the league), Freiburg at 11.54 (who are currently 4th in the league and beat Stuttgart 3-1 on the opening weekend, punishing their defensive errors on the counter) and Eintracht Frankfurt (3rd in the league) have 11.35. There is then a gap and Dortmund is next at 9.86. Which tells you a bit about the Bundesliga so far - Bayern are ahead and by far the most dominant, then there is a bunch of good teams all playing well. But Stuttgart's underlying number don't match their results so far. They've also created the second most xG in the league - 15.18, marginally behind Kompany's all conquering Bayern at 15.31 - and scored 15 goals (compared to 20 for Bayern, and 16 for Leverkusen from an xG of 14.47). Defense as I said is suspect - xGA of 9.56 is only the 10th best in the league, well behind Bayern's xGA of 4.93 - but they've actually underperformed their xGA and conceded 11 in the league. As I said, losing 2 of the starting back 4 has hurt them and they've made poor mistakes in defense. I would love to see what he could do with a higher caliber of talent in the playing squad. At any rate, I am a Sebastian Hoeness partisan here and would like for United to appoint him. Planning to spend the rest of the season being for Hoeness what Amadeus was for Pochettino
6. Fulham - Was also completely surprised to see them so high. Apparently the second best team in the Premier League on xPts so far. Marco Silva has done a brilliant job with them. Fulham are 6th in the league for xG and have actually underperformed their xG numbers - 10 scored for an xG of 13.86. Also second in the table for xGA, but defense roughly reflects that - 7.37 xGA and 8 goals conceded. Have only seen them twice this season - against us (thought they were terrible, got caught out by our press multiple times playing out from the back and didn't really create anything. We only won 1-0 but if Bruno had converted any of the chances in the first half and Garnacho not missed an empty net, it could have been much more.), and against City last week (lost 3-2 but I thought they were brilliant. Fully deserved to win the game based on quality of chances created). Not really sure what to make of them, to be honest. But people in this thread have been suggesting him and Duncan Castles has been saying he's a top target for Ineos. Already knows the league but his record is mixed (started well at Everton and Watford but ended badly at both). May be a good appointment but I'm not sure.
Also ranked the managers in the poll based on xPts this season (excluded any managers not in the top 5 leagues (so no Amorim or Carrick) because I can't find data on Understat for them but I'm sure Amorim's numbers are great. For any managers not currently working because obviously they don't have any numbers for this season, so I've used numbers from their last working season (not sure if it's fair to compare across seasons though. Inzaghi/Alonso's numbers must have been better last season). Here's how the rest match up (ranked on xPts/Match) -
Manager Team xPts/Match Actual Rank Expected Rank Julian Nagelsmann Bayern Munich Thomas Tuchel Bayern Munich Xavi Barcelona Simone Inzaghi Inter Sebastian Hoeneß VfB Stuttgart Marco Silva Fulham Thiago Motta Juventus Xabi Alonso Bayer Leverkusen Massimiliano Allegri Juventus Unai Emery Aston Villa Andoni Iraola Bournemouth Graham Potter Chelsea (results only from his time at Chelsea) Ruud van Nistelrooy Manchester United Roberto de Zerbi Marseille Thomas Frank Brentford Eddie Howe Newcastle United Kieran McKenna Ipswich
For Ruud, I used the results this season as I was not sure what to do. Also on the note of comparing across seasons, Inzaghi's xPts/Match last season was 2.18 - the highest on the list.
It also underlines what an astounding job Iraola is doing at Bournemouth. I think we should seriously consider going for him.
We need to forget about which manager plays the best football at his current club but rather who is most likely to get results with our squad
We simply don’t have the personnel to replicate high octane, attractive football and need to forget about that for a couple of years while we fix the squad.
We simply don’t have the personnel to replicate high octane, attractive football and need to forget about that for a couple of years while we fix the squad.
Even if the point about personnel were true (I don't think it is, teams with much worse squads in terms of inddividual quality play high octane football), what then? We work with a manager who is NOT striving towards this kind of football those couple of years while trying to 'fix the squad' for it?
Yeah, gradually build while we steady the ship with someone who is pragmatic in charge and then find the right manager later - otherwise we’ll continue in this spiral
The only time we have ever not been shit in the past five years is when we’ve played pragmatic counter attacking football. That’s just where we’re at and it’s deluded and borderline arrogant to think otherwise.
The signings we’ve moved have not moved us any further away from this scenario
Our squad is vastly overrated, and riddled with holes. I’d struggle to name one of our players who gets into City, Liverpool or Arsenal’s first eleven.
Tuchels the obvious one. He’ll get a tune out this squad. They’ll respect him and he’ll probably come in, win us the Europa and get us closer to top 4.
Well his captain has learnt well from him then.
I think you’re right. I'd be happy with Iraola or whoever, but the new set of coaches realistically need another year or two on their records, and all of them would be expensive or impossible to get mid-season. Tuchel can come in now and give us a chance of something this season while improving the football.
He’s still a young coach as well. There’s people on here who make out he’d be like hiring Sam Allardyce or Tony Pulis, all on the back of one mediocre season with Bayern!
Not gonna happen because INEOS are happy to continue swimming in a pool of mediocrity
Give it a rest and grow up ffs.
We all want the same thing but whining on about it like a child all the time won’t achieve anything other than making yourself look ridiculous.
You have said repeatedly you don’t care anymore and hope the club keeps losing until he goes so why are you still here? Log off for a bit and sort yourself for everyone’s sake, including you own.
That would be Carrick. He did drop both during his interim period in one of the matches.
Picked up 4 out of a possible 6 points too, think it was Arsenal home and Chelsea away if memory serves me right. Didn't Sancho score the goal at Stamford Bridge
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Tuchel played with a back 4 in Mainz / Dortmund / PSG / Bayern.
It was only in Chelsea that he shifted to a back 3.
Not a fan of Tuchel but even if he does play with a back 3 for United , what's wrong in that ?
He's not my top target, however none of those four are obtainable until next summer, after World Cup or just plain unrealistic (can guess who that is)
I'm bulish on Tuchel. Primarily because he's not a long term appointment.
But he's probably the best manager after (Pep/Klopp). His in-game management and tactics are elite level.
I’m probably in a similiar mind.
I think the mistake we’ve repeatedly made is to look at ‘the next manager’ as a 3 year cycle.
When in actuality, based on Berada’s 2028 vision; winning the league is the 3 year cycle.
Within that cycle the squad and manager are independent.
1. The squad is built and managed over a period of time to be at its peak between 2027-2028.
2. The next manager or manager has to meet basic requirements and is assessed during short intervals.
Regarding the next manager, we need to factor in being able to cut our loses if it clearly isn’t work.
I think it was against Chelsea.
Yeah has been a long time since we had someone with that level of in game management
There is no 'life after EtH'
Ineos know bald is best.
Brailsford.
Ineos know bald is best.
Brailsford.
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Much like in the summer, not much has changed. Tuchel seems like the likely choice, and he still doesn't excite me. He'd be an improvement in the short term.
I don’t think we should ever be getting excited over managers. These days they are literally head coaches. All we should be concerned about is brining in a head coach that can identify the best starting 11, formation and playing style. There’s enough coaches out their cable of that. Graham Potter included.
They just need to stop p’footing and decide who it is.
I don't know if I end up in the "posters who ruined their reputation in one post" for this, but I would rate Tuchel as a better hire for us if we had a title challenging squad. I know his league record isn't steller but I think he'd keep a challenging team in the title picture. Whereas United still need a manager who can build us up again. Same way I think a 50 year old David Moyes fresh out of Everton would be a better hire for 2024 United than he was for 2013 United who needed a manager to keep them in the title picture. (I think he'd still fail, but not as spectacularly)
Tuchel is the most proven option, insofar as he's a CL-winning coach with PL experience. But his limitations are also fairly established at this point too.
I'd be fine if we ended up hiring him, as long as he agrees to a dynamic where he doesn't have undue control over transfers. But with the CEO citing 27/28 as the year they're aiming to win the title by, my money would be on Tuchel not being here at that point, even if we see success in terms of top four finishes and/or European cup runs in that period.
Given that, if the club can indentify a young manager who has yet to take charge of a superclub who they think fits the profile in terms of style and potential then I would be more inclined to go down that route. Alonso, Amorim, Iraola, Hoeness, McKenna, whoever.
There might not be a generational talent among that cohort of managers, but it would be surprising if there wasn't someone who will ultimately prove to be at Tuchel's level. Or at the level of Arteta, Slot, Maresca, Emery, Ange, etc. Who, Pep aside, are the relevant competition.
I'd be fine if we ended up hiring him, as long as he agrees to a dynamic where he doesn't have undue control over transfers. But with the CEO citing 27/28 as the year they're aiming to win the title by, my money would be on Tuchel not being here at that point, even if we see success in terms of top four finishes and/or European cup runs in that period.
Given that, if the club can indentify a young manager who has yet to take charge of a superclub who they think fits the profile in terms of style and potential then I would be more inclined to go down that route. Alonso, Amorim, Iraola, Hoeness, McKenna, whoever.
There might not be a generational talent among that cohort of managers, but it would be surprising if there wasn't someone who will ultimately prove to be at Tuchel's level. Or at the level of Arteta, Slot, Maresca, Emery, Ange, etc. Who, Pep aside, are the relevant competition.
I do not agree with the bolded part even though it is reasonable to think so, there is a chance it could work with Tuchel as long term manager, I acknowledge his issues, but I really like his no nonsense attitude towards the players and how strict he is in terms of what he expects of his players, I also think his tactical flexibility is an advantage, he can look at this squad and find a way to make it work, I am not saying we have a top level squad here, I just think he can make use of their best attributes somehow with his tactical flexibility.
If Tuchel and Ashworth & Co can work together, I do not see why Tuchel can't be a long term appointment, again, I know Tuchel falls out with his bosses, but I am hopeful Ashworth can make it work with him.
If Jose with all his shitty demands could make it work here until he actually destroyed himself (fell out with himself). I don't see how Tuchel cannot. Haven't you seen how the club operate? the people in it will never clash with anybody. We're 14th and they ARE STILL not clashing with the manager! If Tuchel told someone to put on a tutu they probably will, as long as the manager can get the best out of the team.
His odds have shortened further
Yeah really thought we might go back and hire him in this international break, alas not to be
https://www.transfermarkt.com/thomas-tuchel/spielertransfers/trainer/7471#/
Tuchel has some really bad transfer history except hyped ones like Mbappe & Dembele.
Tuchel has some really bad transfer history except hyped ones like Mbappe & Dembele.
There was another club (I think Dortmund) that he played both a back 3 and a back 4 at different periods. Or it may have been PSG. I went through his clubs to look at what he played about 6 months ago, so can't quite remember which club it was. But from memory he started off almost exclusively with a back three, then later changed to almost exclusively a back 4, then seemed to start using both quite a bit.
But yes, while we have historically been a club that plays a back 4, there's nothing intrinsically wrong with a back 3. It gets a bad wrap due to largely being a more defensive formation in the past, but in the modern game a lot of the upcoming managers seem to be utilising it with a more attacking style.
I would actually be happy with Michael Carrick. I’m fed up with foreign managers.
His win rate at Middlesbrough is decent, not a million miles away from McKenna’s at Ipswich and I think he’s a much stronger character who would be more respected by the players.
His win rate at Middlesbrough is decent, not a million miles away from McKenna’s at Ipswich and I think he’s a much stronger character who would be more respected by the players.
But he would be OK with having less say on transfers, he is fine with DoF and other structure doing transfer works
What the hell? Why?
I'm all for a manager that will make us compact and solid. Allegri, Tuchel and Carrick all fit the bill.
I would take anyone of these 3 in no particular order.
I would take anyone of these 3 in no particular order.
For me, we should have taken Carrick after Ole when he was Interim.
1. Midfielders tend to be better managers imo because as footballers they normally dictate play or focus on setting up other team mates: ie Guardiola, Arteta, Conte, Xabi Alonso, Rijkaard, Zidane, Mancini, Simeone, Xavi, Ancelotti - Carrick could have really been our option.
I wonder if it's too late for Carrick to come in now after being average at Middlesbrough who are no doubt an average team of players.
We played some really good football under Carrick's short spell but many believed it was just a good manager bounce.
Shame. I wonder if going for him mid-season post Ten Hag is possible because I would have Carrick as manager over RVN any day of the week because Midfielders simply tend to be better managers.
I’m now in the camp where I don’t care. Anyone could get a better tune out of us at the moment. It’s always nice starting a new job when the person before you was rubbish as it’s easier to look good quickly. Oh except Southgate.
What was nice about Ole in hindsight is that we had Ole to front but pretty clear now a lot of the play was dictated by Carrick & McKenna.
because they keep stealing our jobs.