So I don't know if this is a good methodology for picking managers given that its still very early in the new season (small sample size), there is still a lot of difference in the relative difficulty of the fixture list for different teams, and all said and done, I don't actually know if xPts is a metric that reflects anything at all (I don't want to reopen the debate about whether our xG being roughly the same as Liverpool's in our 3-0 thrashing tells us if we've been unlucky, or if xG leaves out a lot of context) but I thought I'd figure out which teams have started the best in terms of underlying numbers and use this as a way of figuring out which teams have the most interesting managers. So, I went to Understat and got the xPts numbers for every team in Europe's top 5 leagues (England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy) and since different leagues have had different number of matchdays so far, I converted xPts into xPts/Match and then ranked the teams according to xPts/Match. I've listed the top 10 here (expected rank in their league is based on xPts) -
Team | PTS | xPTS | xPTS/Match | Actual Rank in Their League | Expected Rank in Their League | Manager |
Paris Saint Germain | 17 | 17.15 | 2.45 | 2 | 1 | Luis Enrique |
Liverpool | 18 | 16.32 | 2.33 | 1 | 1 | Arne Slot |
Bayern Munich | 14 | 13.93 | 2.32 | 1 | 1 | Vincent Kompany |
Barcelona | 24 | 20.14 | 2.24 | 1 | 1 | Hansi Flick |
Monaco | 19 | 15.57 | 2.22 | 1 | 2 | Adolf Hutter |
Lazio | 13 | 14.21 | 2.03 | 4 | 1 | Marco Baroni |
AC Milan | 11 | 14.03 | 2.00 | 6 | 2 | Paulo Fonseca |
Inter | 14 | 14 | 2.00 | 2 | 3 | Simone Inzaghi |
VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 11.97 | 2.00 | 8 | 2 | Sebastian Hoeness |
Fulham | 11 | 13.95 | 1.99 | 8 | 2 | Marco Silva |
Unsurprisingly, most teams at the top of xPts are also near the top of actual points in the league so far. Also unsurprisingly, we see the usual contenders at the top of this table - PSG, Bayern, Barcelona. Also shows how well Liverpool have started under Slot - even if their fixture list to start has been kind, their xG numbers show they've been sweeping aside 'lesser' teams without any hitches. But then we get to the surprising names (which might offer up names for us to consider?) -
1. Monaco - They are top of the table in Ligue 1 this season, 2 clear of PSG. I can't say I know much about Hutter beyond his spell at Borussia Monchengladbach, which was quite underwhelming overall. They finished midtable in the league (10th, google tells me). But they had a memorable result where they beat Nagelsman's Bayern 5-0 in the cup. Not sure if he is any good, if they've just had an easy start, or if this is a Jardim type perfect storm situation and they'll surprise everyone this season. Worth noting they've also beaten Barcelona in the Champions League.
2. Lazio - Haven't watched them at all this season. Have never heard of Marco Baroni. Haven't even heard anyone mention them as a team to watch early in the season. I am completely baffled by them apparently leading Serie A in expected points so far. I guess this is just a quirk of xG models and an easier start to the season. They are top of the standings in the Europa League after 2 games so they might be actually good?
3. AC Milan - Also surprised at them apparently being the second best team in Serie A on xPts so far. Not really a big fan of Paulo Fonseca and they had tension with the fans to start the season. Notable results - lost to both Liverpool and Leverkusen in the Champions League, beat Inter in the league. Not an option for us I don't think.
4. Inter - Look a bit sluggish to start the season, especially compared to last season. Only 2 points behind leaders Napoli in the league (Napoli are 6th in the league on xPts, for the record) and played very well in the Champions League against City, I thought. Unsurprising to see them on the list - genuinely one of the best teams in Europe with genuinely one of the best managers in Europe. Simone Inzaghi might be gettable and would probably be a great choice.
5. Stuttgart - We get to the reason I made up this whole list in the first place. Stuttgart lost 2 of their starting back 4 (Anton went to Dortmund and Ito went to Bayern) and their top goal scorer (Guirassy went to Dortmund), and made really only two big singings (one of which - Undav - was already on loan from Brighton last season, they just made the transfer permanent) but continue to show good performances. The losses are showing an impact though. They look slightly suspect defensively, and have been made to pay for defensive errors. Attack continues to be great, though. Hence, underlying numbers continue to be great but they've not converted underlying metrics to actual points and they languish in 8th in the table. Also, worth pointing out that they've only barely made it onto this list. Their xPts are 11.97 - marginally ahead of Leverkusen at 11.87 (5th in the league), Freiburg at 11.54 (who are currently 4th in the league and beat Stuttgart 3-1 on the opening weekend, punishing their defensive errors on the counter) and Eintracht Frankfurt (3rd in the league) have 11.35. There is then a gap and Dortmund is next at 9.86. Which tells you a bit about the Bundesliga so far - Bayern are ahead and by far the most dominant, then there is a bunch of good teams all playing well. But Stuttgart's underlying number don't match their results so far. They've also created the second most xG in the league - 15.18, marginally behind Kompany's all conquering Bayern at 15.31 - and scored 15 goals (compared to 20 for Bayern, and 16 for Leverkusen from an xG of 14.47). Defense as I said is suspect - xGA of 9.56 is only the 10th best in the league, well behind Bayern's xGA of 4.93 - but they've actually underperformed their xGA and conceded 11 in the league. As I said, losing 2 of the starting back 4 has hurt them and they've made poor mistakes in defense. I would love to see what he could do with a higher caliber of talent in the playing squad. At any rate, I am a Sebastian Hoeness partisan here and would like for United to appoint him. Planning to spend the rest of the season being for Hoeness what Amadeus was for Pochettino
6. Fulham - Was also completely surprised to see them so high. Apparently the second best team in the Premier League on xPts so far. Marco Silva has done a brilliant job with them. Fulham are 6th in the league for xG and have actually underperformed their xG numbers - 10 scored for an xG of 13.86. Also second in the table for xGA, but defense roughly reflects that - 7.37 xGA and 8 goals conceded. Have only seen them twice this season - against us (thought they were terrible, got caught out by our press multiple times playing out from the back and didn't really create anything. We only won 1-0 but if Bruno had converted any of the chances in the first half and Garnacho not missed an empty net, it could have been much more.), and against City last week (lost 3-2 but I thought they were brilliant. Fully deserved to win the game based on quality of chances created). Not really sure what to make of them, to be honest. But people in this thread have been suggesting him and Duncan Castles has been saying he's a top target for Ineos. Already knows the league but his record is mixed (started well at Everton and Watford but ended badly at both). May be a good appointment but I'm not sure.
Also ranked the managers in the poll based on xPts this season (excluded any managers not in the top 5 leagues (so no Amorim or Carrick) because I can't find data on Understat for them but I'm sure Amorim's numbers are great. For any managers not currently working because obviously they don't have any numbers for this season, so I've used numbers from their last working season (not sure if it's fair to compare across seasons though. Inzaghi/Alonso's numbers must have been better last season). Here's how the rest match up (ranked on xPts/Match) -
Manager | Team | xPts/Match | Actual Rank | Expected Rank |
Julian Nagelsmann | Bayern Munich | 2.0536 | 2 | 1 |
Thomas Tuchel | Bayern Munich | 2.025789 | 3 | 1 |
Xavi | Barcelona | 2.025263 | 2 | 2 |
Simone Inzaghi | Inter | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Sebastian Hoeneß | VfB Stuttgart | 1.995 | 8 | 2 |
Marco Silva | Fulham | 1.992857 | 8 | 2 |
Thiago Motta | Juventus | 1.984286 | 3 | 4 |
Xabi Alonso | Bayer Leverkusen | 1.978333 | 5 | 3 |
Massimiliano Allegri | Juventus | 1.964211 | 3 | 2 |
Unai Emery | Aston Villa | 1.794286 | 5 | 7 |
Andoni Iraola | Bournemouth | 1.752857 | 13 | 8 |
Graham Potter | Chelsea (results only from his time at Chelsea) | 1.483182 | 11 | 8 |
Ruud van Nistelrooy | Manchester United | 1.402857 | 14 | 10 |
Roberto de Zerbi | Marseille | 1.374286 | 3 | 11 |
Thomas Frank | Brentford | 1.314286 | 11 | 11 |
Eddie Howe | Newcastle United | 1.132857 | 7 | 14 |
Kieran McKenna | Ipswich | 0.584286 | 17 | 20 |
For Ruud, I used the results this season as I was not sure what to do. Also on the note of comparing across seasons, Inzaghi's xPts/Match last season was 2.18 - the highest on the list.