Jeremy Corbyn - Not Not Labour Party(?), not a Communist (BBC)

If the Labour Party establishment chooses May/June as its moment to strike, you could find that the far-left throw their support behind Brexit in response. As a Eurosceptic i wholeheartedly encourage this action. ;)

On the other hand...a failed coup attempt might leave MPs with no choice but to breakaway or defect to the Lib Dems.

Personally, i would look upon the creation of a new centrist party with favour, albeit with an improved cast of characters.


Silva said:
I'd personally welcome the Green Party taking over the British left.
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They are not ready for that yet; support for some of the Green Party's ideals isn't the same as confidence in their policies.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
If the Labour Party establishment chooses May/June as its moment to strike, you could find that the far-left throw their support behind Brexit in response. As a Eurosceptic i wholeheartedly encourage this action. ;)

On the other hand...a failed coup attempt might leave MPs with no choice but to breakaway or defect to the Lib Dems.

Personally, i would look upon the creation of a new centrist party with favour, albeit with an improved cast of characters.




They are not ready for that yet; support for some of the Green Party's ideals isn't the same as confidence in their policies.
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Timeline for a Corbyn challenge I see as being around conference season
Get smashed in Scottish and local elections
Have the referendum
Then Trident maingate before the summer holidays then the infighting can properly kick off
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
If the Labour Party establishment chooses May/June as its moment to strike, you could find that the far-left throw their support behind Brexit in response. As a Eurosceptic i wholeheartedly encourage this action. ;)

On the other hand...a failed coup attempt might leave MPs with no choice but to breakaway or defect to the Lib Dems.

Personally, i would look upon the creation of a new centrist party with favour, albeit with an improved cast of characters.




They are not ready for that yet; support for some of the Green Party's ideals isn't the same as confidence in their policies.
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Article says the idea is to do it after June 23rd probably partly for the reason you give.

If the Greens would take Corbyn and McDonnell I'd be delighted. I wouldn't wish Burgon on anyone though.
 
Ubik said:
Article says the idea is to do it after June 23rd probably partly for the reason you give.

If the Greens would take Corbyn and McDonnell I'd be delighted. I wouldn't wish Burgon on anyone though.
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let momentum set up as a party with corbyn, mcdonnell, burgon, abbott. etc
Doubt it will happen but I think that when the challenge comes its going to be very fractious for the party and you may indeed end up with people leaving.
 
Is anyone that voted for Corbyn and thought Labour at the election were "Tory-lite" a bit annoyed that McDonnell's now got a remarkably similar fiscal policy to that of Balls?
 
Ubik said:
Is anyone that voted for Corbyn and thought Labour at the election were "Tory-lite" a bit annoyed that McDonnell's now got a remarkably similar fiscal policy to that of Balls?
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Odd question, It was never going to change substantially the only difference will be in how it's presented. Ed was caught half way being cautious and almost apologetic for wanting to invest.

The message going forward needs to be proudly investing for a better future. The ridiculous concept of the household budget needs to be buried rather than tolerated.

McDonnell can't do a worse job than Balls at trying to address that narrative.
 
Smores said:
Odd question, It was never going to change substantially the only difference will be in how it's presented. Ed was caught half way being cautious and almost apologetic for wanting to invest.

The message going forward needs to be proudly investing for a better future. The ridiculous concept of the household budget needs to be buried rather than tolerated.

McDonnell can't do a worse job than Balls at trying to address that narrative.
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It was criticised numerous times on here (after the general election, anyway) from supporters of Corbyn as having been austerity-lite, nothing to do with the messaging.
 
Ubik said:
It was criticised numerous times on here (after the general election, anyway) from supporters of Corbyn as having been austerity-lite, nothing to do with the messaging.
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The message surrounding such announcements is everything. Balls very much went along with the austerity line of paying down the debt with investment largely a hidden guilty pleasure. McDonnell is saying tight controls but championing investment and where the BoE can't boost the economy Labour will.

Are you saying you don't think the previous Labour regime went along with the austerity ideology? Or that the current one is?
 
Smores said:
The message surrounding such announcements is everything. Balls very much went along with the austerity line of paying down the debt with investment largely a hidden guilty pleasure. McDonnell is saying tight controls but championing investment and where the BoE can't boost the economy Labour will.

Are you saying you don't think the previous Labour regime went along with the austerity ideology? Or that the current one is?
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I don't even know what you mean by "austerity ideology", acknowledgement that spending cuts probably have to happen if you want to balance the current budget (as McDonnell has pledged to do) and bring down the debt/GDP ratio (as McDonnell has pledged to do)? You seem to be saying that austerity is really just a rhetorical device.

EDIT - and has for the "household budget" analogy you mentioned earlier, presumably you won't enjoy this from McDonnell:

If you’re putting the rent on the credit card month after month, things need to change
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Smores said:
McDonnell can't do a worse job than Balls at trying to address that narrative.
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you sure about that?
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It's fine as a policy, I'm more interested in seeing if voters who were excited for Corbyn's anti-austerity campaign message were happy that they'd reverted to Balls' plan. Apparently so, thus far.
 
Ubik said:
It's fine as a policy, I'm more interested in seeing if voters who were excited for Corbyn's anti-austerity campaign message were happy that they'd reverted to Balls' plan. Apparently so, thus far.
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It's better than Ball's plan though innit?
 
Ubik said:
In what way? It's the same.
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This is the Balls policy right?

  • We will cut the deficit every year with a surplus on the current budget and get the national debt falling as soon as possible in the next Parliament.
  • We will make fair and sensible spending decisions, including capping social security spending so that it is properly controlled, stopping the payment of the winter fuel allowance to the wealthiest five per cent of pensioners and capping child benefit rises for the next two years.
  • There is not a single policy in this manifesto that is funded by additional borrowing. There are tough decisions to be taken and we haven’t made any commitments that we can’t keep.+
 
Shamwow said:
This is the Balls policy right?

  • We will cut the deficit every year with a surplus on the current budget and get the national debt falling as soon as possible in the next Parliament.
  • We will make fair and sensible spending decisions, including capping social security spending so that it is properly controlled, stopping the payment of the winter fuel allowance to the wealthiest five per cent of pensioners and capping child benefit rises for the next two years.
  • There is not a single policy in this manifesto that is funded by additional borrowing. There are tough decisions to be taken and we haven’t made any commitments that we can’t keep.+
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Yeah, which all essentially means balancing the current budget, which is McDonnell's new policy. He unfortunately apparently left the press announcement before taking questions today so I'm not sure if there's any detail on what spending he plans to cut down on.
 
Ubik said:
Yeah, which all essentially means balancing the current budget, which is McDonnell's new policy. He unfortunately apparently left the press announcement before taking questions today so I'm not sure if there's any detail on what spending he plans to cut down on.
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McDonnell's policy wouldn't apply right now though would it due to the interest rate clause. That's not a small difference.

It's a very good policy in my opinion, much better thought out than Balls'.

And it doesn't just need to rely on spending cuts.

From JC's Leadership bid documents also, I don't see much backtracking here.

We all want the deficit closed on the current budget, but there was no need to try to do it within an artificial five years or even the extra five years George Osborne mapped out two weeks ago. As I said on the Sunday Politics, if the deficit has been closed by 2020 and the economy is growing, then Labour should not run a current budget deficit – but we should borrow to invest in our future prosperity. You don’t close the deficit fairly or sustainably through cuts. You close it through growing a balanced and sustainable economy that works for all And by asking those with income and wealth to spare to contribute more.
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Shamwow said:
McDonnell's policy wouldn't apply right now though would it due to the interest rate clause. That's not a small difference.

It's a very good policy in my opinion, much better thought out than Balls'.

And it doesn't just need to rely on spending cuts.

From JC's Leadership bid documents also, I don't see much backtracking here.
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From what I've read, the interest rate thing doesn't kick in unless they're at 0%. And they're currently slated to remain at 0.5% until 2019, when they're likely to rise.
 
Ubik said:
From what I've read, the interest rate thing doesn't kick in unless they're at 0%. And they're currently slated to remain at 0.5% until 2019, when they're likely to rise.
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Im pretty sure it's when it's close.
 
Shamwow said:
Im pretty sure it's when it's close.
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Looks like "close" is defined by there being a 50/50 chance of them falling to zero:

Portes and Wren-Lewis are clear: when the central bank thinks there’s a 50 per cent chance of interest rates falling to zero...

“The fiscal authority should cooperate with the central bank in devising a fiscal stimulus package that is expected to allow interest rates to rise above this lower bound. This will imply a significant increase in debt, and the fiscal authority will at the same time need to demonstrate how its fiscal rule will change once interest rates are expected to rise again.”
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http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...-john-mcdonnell-s-new-fiscal-credibility-rule
That's Paul Mason writing on it, using the report by Simon Wren-Lewis (Corbyn advisor) and Jonathan Portes (chief economist under New Labour). Given there's little chance of an interest rate fall, it doesn't fit the criteria.
 
Ubik said:
Looks like "close" is defined by there being a 50/50 chance of them falling to zero:


http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...-john-mcdonnell-s-new-fiscal-credibility-rule
That's Paul Mason writing on it, using the report by Simon Wren-Lewis (Corbyn advisor) and Jonathan Portes (chief economist under New Labour). Given there's little chance of an interest rate fall, it doesn't fit the criteria.
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That's a very good article.

I don't really know enough about the current situation it to argue with you but feck it... I thought things were looking at lot less rosy recently. Does the Bank of England publish its interest rate forecasts? Even if it doesn't apply now, I still think it's better than Ed's which is making promises for which there is a non-insignificant chance it can't keep.
 
Smores said:
Odd question, It was never going to change substantially the only difference will be in how it's presented. Ed was caught half way being cautious and almost apologetic for wanting to invest.

The message going forward needs to be proudly investing for a better future. The ridiculous concept of the household budget needs to be buried rather than tolerated.

McDonnell can't do a worse job than Balls at trying to address that narrative.
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I wouldn't underestimate McDonnell's ability in that respect.
 
Think he's quite a good presenter .Liked the interview he did with Peter Hitchens.
 
Ubik said:
Judging by this, I'm guessing Cameron got his line on Corbyn's dress sense straight from focus groups in ex-Labour marginals - http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/12/labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-2015-election
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I know this will reveal me for the left-wing, liberal elitist dickhead I am, but these focus groups always depress me at how dumb the electorate is. There was a similarly illuminating article for Buzzfeed following De Piero talking to young female non-voters.

But Corbyn clearly isn't connecting with those people and Labour needs to if it is to win.

As an aside: Britain is a strange country really. Although those on the left moan about our incredibly classist social structure there are clearly a huge amount of people who have been successfully convinced that a private school/Oxbridge education is a prerequisite for politicians. That they should be a certain sort of person rather than representative of us.

Cindy Faulkner, a children’s books illustrator, chips in: “And he didn’t even sing the national anthem, which I think is most disrespectful because it means he doesn’t give a tinker’s toss about the Queen or he doesn’t know the national anthem – and if he doesn’t know the national anthem, that is disgraceful.”

I'd happily bet £1000 that she cannot accurately sing the second verse
 
There is certain irony in you 'liberal elitist dickeads' bemoaning the stupidity of the electorate when you were warned by every man and his dog about the stupidity of backing Corbyn. If you really want to wrap yourself in high minded ideals then join the Green Party, or do they not have a big enough platform for you to wank off on?
 
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Classical Mechanic said:
There is certain irony in you 'liberal elitist dickeads' bemoaning the stupidity of the electorate when you were warned by every man and his dog about the stupidity of backing Corbyn. If you really want to wrap yourself in high minded ideals then join the Green Party, or do they not have a big enough platform for you to wank off on?
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Why is that ironic?
 
Shamwow said:
Why is that ironic?
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I'm calling the electorate dumb for being ill informed, myopic, self-interested, and basically stupid, when I was equally stupid backing a Labour leadership candidate who would never appeal to those people.

Classical Mechanic said:
There is certain irony in you 'liberal elitist dickeads' bemoaning the stupidity of the electorate when you were warned by every man and his dog about the stupidity of backing Corbyn. If you really want to wrap yourself in high minded ideals then join the Green Party, or do they not have a big enough platform for you to wank off on?
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If we had a fair electoral system then yes.
 
Untied said:
I'm calling the electorate dumb for being ill informed, myopic, self-interested, and basically stupid, when I was equally stupid backing a Labour leadership candidate who would never appeal to those people.
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Did you back him because you thought he would appeal to those people or because he represented your views?
 
Shamwow said:
Did you back him because you thought he would appeal to those people or because he represented your views?
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The latter, but with some idealistic hope that he could ignite some genuine (much needed) change.

Corbyn's first few months were particularly inept and have allowed a negative narrative to be set. He didn't manage the transition from appealing to 60% of Labour members to appealing to and addressing the general electorate well at all.
 
Untied said:
The latter, but with some idealistic hope that he could ignite some genuine (much needed) change.

Corbyn's first few months were particularly inept and have allowed a negative narrative to be set. He didn't manage the transition from appealing to 60% of Labour members to appealing to and addressing the general electorate well at all.
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His first few months were always going to be the most difficult, and the ones where he needed his party behind him most. Not sure anyone voted him for his PR-savvy ways and that was the tide he was facing.

Unfortunately the stage is set now and there is little that can be done. The fear his opponents will have had is that he quietly got on with things and then had his big moment that really brings him into the minds of the public in a positive light. The early efforts to set the narrative around him were partly to make sure this didn't happen. He certainly didn't help things but that's not why I wanted him.

I want the public to decide whether they want to discuss issues or to carry on with the same old CBB bollocks. It looks like we as a country are happy with the latter and so we will get the appropriate government.
 
Untied said:
The latter, but with some idealistic hope that he could ignite some genuine (much needed) change.

Corbyn's first few months were particularly inept and have allowed a negative narrative to be set. He didn't manage the transition from appealing to 60% of Labour members to appealing to and addressing the general electorate well at all.
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Do you have a preferred candidate that you'd have instead? I get the feeling that a good number of Corbyn voters would like someone on that side of the argument economically but without all the extra baggage.
 
Ubik said:
Do you have a preferred candidate that you'd have instead? I get the feeling that a good number of Corbyn voters would like someone on that side of the argument economically but without all the extra baggage.
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That would be the ideal but there doesn't seem to be an obvious candidate. I mean who actually is there? Clive Lewis? Rebecca Long-Bailey?
 
Untied said:
That would be the ideal but there doesn't seem to be an obvious candidate. I mean who actually is there? Clive Lewis? Rebecca Long-Bailey?
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I actually find Clive Lewis more annoying than I find Corbyn, but he's at least served in the army so would be less vulnerable on the defence side (although he's also unilateralist, but then maybe that's a good way of that argument being listened to?). Trouble is, there seems to be a large gap even between the soft-left and the Corbyn group. It highlights how annoying FPTP is, because there's clearly two different parties trying to operate under one banner.
 
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