Do you disagree with the notion that it will take a long-term electoral threat for US policy to change on Israel? As in, if unconditional support to Israel is increasingly hurting electoral chances.
Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less
- Thread starter esmufc07
- Start date
I think it's necessary but not sufficient, and also, neither the change in electoral chances nor the actual change in policy are likely to happen while we're alive, if ever.
Why wouldn't it be sufficient?
I don't follow the bolded, can you elaborate?
Muslim Americans are concentrated in swing states and might be more open to voting Republican if the Republicans get pragmatic on this and don't call for Muslim bans and whatnot.
And Muslim Americans are united on Gaza.
Because issues aren't decided by referenda, but by representatives, who also need to respond to things like donors and media, all of which are overwhelmingly pro-Israel.
Well, I'm not sure if this is more an Arab or Muslim issue, but yes, I can see an anti-woke Muslim vote... But I don't see any trajectory where the GOP moderates either on their anti-immigrant stance (their best issue nationally right now), or on Israel itself*, given that the GOP leader recently openly boasted that service to Israel in the form of donations is worth more and rewarded better than US soldiers' lives, and was met by applause from his American right-wing base.
On the numbers side, while there are a lot of Arabs concentrated in Michigan, there are also other swing states or faintly purple with similar blocs- Penn has 300k Jewish citizens, Nevada has 2.6%, Virginia has endless foreign policy think tanks and MIC companies. Even Michigan, with 250k Muslims, has more than 100k Jews.
And this is the * from the above bit.
The groypers are anti-semitic neo-Nazis, very anti-Israel, who have an outsider/marginal influence. But the GOP, unlike the Democrats, has been susceptible to these outsider campaigns (Tea Party, Trump, the MAGA pretenders). If Nazis gain prominence in the party, that's the only way GOP policy on Israel might change.
Last edited:
@VorZakone
Going down from a theoretical future to the real world - what do you think Israel might do, short of exterminating all 2 mil in Gaza and 3 mil in the WB, that would alienate US public opinion further? In my view, they're doing a war about as cruelly as they can right now. We can see what American public opinion and political response are.
If they do successfully exterminate them, and that turns out to be the US public's red line... well, then the Palestinian question has been resolved already. Hardly seems like the aftermath of a genocide would be an electoral issue, apart from whether the terrorists/survivors of the genocide should be allowed as refugees or thrown out like the MS St Louis.
Going down from a theoretical future to the real world - what do you think Israel might do, short of exterminating all 2 mil in Gaza and 3 mil in the WB, that would alienate US public opinion further? In my view, they're doing a war about as cruelly as they can right now. We can see what American public opinion and political response are.
If they do successfully exterminate them, and that turns out to be the US public's red line... well, then the Palestinian question has been resolved already. Hardly seems like the aftermath of a genocide would be an electoral issue, apart from whether the terrorists/survivors of the genocide should be allowed as refugees or thrown out like the MS St Louis.
Something like annexing Gaza, perhaps. But it's also besides the point.
Public opinion is shifting against Israel but to what extent does that translate into an electoral threat for the Dems? And then there is Trump. Many decent people don't like what Israel is doing but that doesn't mean they're gonna vote Trump. Then there is this thing that whether we like it or not, there are Americans who don't like what Israel is doing but they also think Hamas started it and should release the hostages.
In a situation where the Republicans can get rid of Trump and moderate a bit on their views, I am open to the argument that Muslim Americans can become open to voting Republican and increase their electoral leverage. The Republicans are indeed extremely pro-Israel but if that is going to weigh heavy on their electoral chances, then they might moderate a bit.
All of the above may or may not happen. Time will tell. Much of what you say is accurate as of today but will that status quo remain? I am sceptical. Things can change and we are seeing that already in public opinion. That shift is already happening. Now the question is if that translates to shifts in electoral calculus.
I think the majority of Americans are going to vote because they either want Trump or don't want Trump. For the undecided who pay attention and the Israel/Palestine issue was a factor of who to vote for, Trump's recent acceptance of a huge $100 million donation and sucking up to Adelson has just helped them as they were clear on the Dems and Harris stance but unclear on Trumps. Now they know so their choice is clearer. However, I think ultimately issues at home will factor far more in the voters minds.
Abortion, taxes & the economy, immigration etc. It's not that people don't care about the situation in Gaza, more that many feel issues at home are more important. Obviously, some truly don't care and for others it's something they either feel powerless about or it's happening so far away that it's none of their business.
I've seen many staunch Republicans, many of which are Christians who are disgusted by what is going on but it's certainly not enough to make them change their vote to the side of the baby killers that is the Socialist, Communist, Marxist party.
The fact neither party are mentioning it much and the media coverage has almost disappeared aside from on social media also means it's not being used by either side who I feel are trying their best to ignore it as much as possible.
Ideally it would matter, but sadly it really doesn't seem to, certainly not more or enough for the majority. And the best hope would be Harris secretly either ignoring or sidestepping it and appearing to toe the party line to get elected then after doing so come out in staunch defence of Palestine or strongly against Israel and Netanyahu and then use her position and influence at the very least to do whatever she could to stop it and even better, hold Israel accountable.
Sadly, it seems that just won't happen and it will just be the same as it is now, that being slightly better than Trump but of absolutely no help or comfort to the Palestinians and more strong words but absolutely no push back or consequences or serious concerted effort to put an end to it and ultimately help the Palestiams or to hold Israel accountable and punish them as they absolutely deserve to be.
Abortion, taxes & the economy, immigration etc. It's not that people don't care about the situation in Gaza, more that many feel issues at home are more important. Obviously, some truly don't care and for others it's something they either feel powerless about or it's happening so far away that it's none of their business.
I've seen many staunch Republicans, many of which are Christians who are disgusted by what is going on but it's certainly not enough to make them change their vote to the side of the baby killers that is the Socialist, Communist, Marxist party.
The fact neither party are mentioning it much and the media coverage has almost disappeared aside from on social media also means it's not being used by either side who I feel are trying their best to ignore it as much as possible.
Ideally it would matter, but sadly it really doesn't seem to, certainly not more or enough for the majority. And the best hope would be Harris secretly either ignoring or sidestepping it and appearing to toe the party line to get elected then after doing so come out in staunch defence of Palestine or strongly against Israel and Netanyahu and then use her position and influence at the very least to do whatever she could to stop it and even better, hold Israel accountable.
Sadly, it seems that just won't happen and it will just be the same as it is now, that being slightly better than Trump but of absolutely no help or comfort to the Palestinians and more strong words but absolutely no push back or consequences or serious concerted effort to put an end to it and ultimately help the Palestiams or to hold Israel accountable and punish them as they absolutely deserve to be.
There are around 4.5 million Muslims in the United States. There are 7.5 million Jews and over 80 million Evangelical Christians.
And yet Reagan felt it was necessary to put some pressure on Begin in the 80s. Point being that the Republicans in the past have not always given Israel 100% leeway.
There are limits to framing this type of discussion solely in terms of demographic groups with fixed preferences, which is what seems to be happening in the last page.
Dems will be losing a chunk of their loyal Muslim votes for sure, I don't know the American political scene well enough on whether this will result in any significant loss of seats.
In the UK the Labour Muslim vote collapsed and they lost a few big majorities and a number of seats held on by the skin of their teeth due to this issue. As a result we also seen a number of independents win seats and contribute to some greens to win seats. Whilst it didn't matter in the grand scheme of things as Labour won (was an open goal anyway) in a local/regional level it was significant.
Don't know if America have independents but I would think a lot of Muslims will vote that way or not vote at all.
In the UK the Labour Muslim vote collapsed and they lost a few big majorities and a number of seats held on by the skin of their teeth due to this issue. As a result we also seen a number of independents win seats and contribute to some greens to win seats. Whilst it didn't matter in the grand scheme of things as Labour won (was an open goal anyway) in a local/regional level it was significant.
Don't know if America have independents but I would think a lot of Muslims will vote that way or not vote at all.
And neither have Democrats, but the Party of Reagan is well and truly dead and buried.
There are limits, but we aren’t talking about splitting hairs here. The current GOP isn’t going to about face on policy to gain 1-2 million votes at the risk of tens of millions.
You're seeing this from the view of 2024 Israel and the 2024 parties. Israel was a progressive cause for the mid-20th century west. Lot of support, not just from the mainstream Dems, but from the outsider/progressive wing too. It partly explains why Reagan pulling up Begin wasn't as shocking as it would be to see Trump do the same. And what lineage Biden is coming from.
The other is the lobby. While it was always strong (see the screenshot from 1948 and the pressure on Truman), they now do have to face some pro-Palestine US domestic sentiment, which is why their open spending on politicians and successfully applying pressure on all institutions, etc, has gone up even more. The last president who publicly condemned the lobby's demands was HW.
Just today:
I'm talking less about GOP and more broadly. One could also say that there aren't that many gay people, that the GOP did not court them or tone down their homophobia, and that there are many more conservative or homophobic voters. This might lead to the conclusion that gay people couldn't get rights in the U.S., when they very much did.
Last edited:
Yep, that's the crux of the issue that certain sections interested in American politics like to ignore. The influence of the Israeli lobby has increased significantly because they started to lose the consensus they used to have in public. Also, Trump moving further to the right made the Democrats comfortable with their genocidal tendencies.
We're just discussing the Americans putting a red line for not terminating a population. Giving said population some basic rights has rarely been on the table. There's a reason this is the perfect time for zionists to deliver their final solution.
What's your point? That today's status quo will be the status quo in 50 years?
This is a good discussion, great points on both sides. Only thing I'd add that largely hasn't been mentioned is the uphill battle - particularly vis-a-vis the right - that Muslims face in the electorate after 20 years of vilification after 9/11. The terrorist savage is an image sadly well cultivated in the US across media, and rhe actions of Oct 7th largest fit that like a glove.
Wheras the thought of those kindly Jewish folk butchering children causes far more cognitive dissonance.
Wheras the thought of those kindly Jewish folk butchering children causes far more cognitive dissonance.
It doesn't even necessarily have to be an anti-woke only Muslim-American vote. It could be pro-small business, with a bit of anti-woke sprinkled over it.
The Republicans just don't have to call for Muslim bans. A "strong border" immigration stance might be just fine.
As for donors, yes those are gonna remain a powerful influence.
Last edited:
If the conclusion is that the pro-Palestinian vote can be electorally disregarded on the long term, then I tend to disagree for now.
But if that is the case, then I don't expect the US' stance to seriously change on Israel unless there are genuine consequences imposed on the US by the international community which seems unlikely so far.
But if that is the case, then I don't expect the US' stance to seriously change on Israel unless there are genuine consequences imposed on the US by the international community which seems unlikely so far.
I'm not sure how or why the leap was made from 'meaningful restraint of Israel' to 'pro-Palestinian sentiment.'
The Israel/Gaza war has relatively low approval ratings in the U.S., not because of some large degree of pro-Palestinian sentiment, but because many people are opposed to murder and brutality.
People have a collection of values and positions, these are often contradictory but can hold together in a fragile equilibrium, at least temporarily, but eventually something has to give.
The Israel/Gaza war has relatively low approval ratings in the U.S., not because of some large degree of pro-Palestinian sentiment, but because many people are opposed to murder and brutality.
People have a collection of values and positions, these are often contradictory but can hold together in a fragile equilibrium, at least temporarily, but eventually something has to give.
Last edited:
In your view, what would it take for the US to show meaningful restraint?
Reduced public support for Israel, increasing Dem/Rep polarization on the issue, different conditions (an election year in which Democrats are running is a particularly bad condition for example), bunch of other things. I don't think it's a linear thing where we can easily say "we are getting closer" or "we are getting further."
But for example it's not hard to imagine the U.S. showing a bit more restraint if the White House were not currently occupied by a mentally deficient racist.
I would agree that it isn't necessarily a linear thing and circumstances matter and the particular conditions like whether there's an election year or not.
They did, but that was largely done through Supreme Court decisions, and I’m not sure that there’s a way for SCOTUS to do the same for Palestine.
Supreme Court decisions which changed over time, as they were influencing and being influenced by popular opinion.
Wikipedia:
"From 2004 through to 2015, as the tide of public opinion continued to move towards support of same-sex marriage, various state court rulings, state legislation, direct popular votes (referendums and initiatives), and federal court rulings established same-sex marriage in thirty-six of the fifty states."
Gallup:
The point is that these political changes happen despite demographics not shifting much; people within those demographics simply change their views due to many complex factors.
Since we're talking complex factors and Evangelical Christians were mentioned, it's worth noting that there is some evidence that support for Israel among young Evangelicals has been falling for a while now. Here are some excerpts from an article in The Bulwark:
Netanyahu is such a great guy - he's thinking of a truce to allow for a polio vaccination campaign to take place. As if polio was the greatest threat to young Palestinians.
I know exactly what you mean...
And this is the reality. The college Hillel president reacts to the reading of names of dead babies.
And you expect these people to create a coherent voting bloc in the foreseeable future
Cmon man. Literally, they will be given less than nothing, and be happy with it. What lessons do you think the party is taking here?
e - this is about as good as the persuasion is going to get. it gets zero reflection among those in power, because it's not a defining issue.
Last edited:
And you expect these people to create a coherent voting bloc in the foreseeable future
Cmon man. Literally, they will be given less than nothing, and be happy with it. What lessons do you think the party is taking here?
e - this is about as good as the persuasion is going to get. it gets zero reflection among those in power, because it's not a defining issue.
"this is about as good as the persuasion is going to get."
It's a poll that suggests something about public opinion but does it translate to an electoral threat for Dems ? It's ofcourse an interesting poll to share but I wouldn't say it's as good as the persuasion will get.
As for what lessons the Dems will take, my guess is that they might calculate they can get away with it this time. Doesn't mean the same will be in 50 years.
It won't translate into much imo. Its being taken as a standalone issue among a sea of other, mostly domestic issues that poll more importantly for Dems. Ultimately, if they saw this as a decisive losing issue for them they would take action. The fact that Harris is largely following Biden's template on Israel should tell you all you need to know.
By persuasion, I mean, how the general public feels about the issue. 60% for a step that's endorsed by about 10% of Congress and 0% of the executive is pretty strong. 77% among the party base is quite astounding. The fact that politicians don't feel compelled to change their stance shows that:
1. Other factors (the lobby's money and media power) are more important to their voting behaviour.
2. This a vague belief, not backed up by a disciplined voting coalition.
Biden, who is heavily pro-Israel, was doing increasingly worse in election polling (a threat for November) and some donors adjusted by withholding funding if he remained on the ticket. Do you rule out a scenario where unconditional support to Israel is increasingly perceived as a politically dangerous stance and thereby some donors make adjustments in whom they fund?
Last edited: