Labour will hold the seat easily.
General Election 2024
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Labour will hold the seat easily.
It''s also worth considering that this company, as well as others completely tore into the government policies for PPE during the inquest.
We have compulsory voting, which is a great idea, so I have no problem if you show up and spoil your ballot.
I've just been for a lunchtime walk as I thought that there was a possibility some had gone up and I'd not noticed them, but no, nothing at all with Labour on it. A few houses with the WP candidate up though.
Great choice on Lily's - I'm off there tomorrow. It's dangerous having it on my doorstep!
The 2019 election saw Rayner/Labour's majority slashed by around 8,000 votes. In the end there were only 4,200 votes between her and the Torys. I wouldn't be surprised if that majority was eroded again in a couple of weeks.
We don't have pens/pencils or put x's in boxes - which could blow some peoples' minds on here. 
Any basis for that opinion?
I'd be surprised, MRP has her 40 points ahead of the Tories, which even if it is out by quite a bit has her increasing her majority significantly.
We will never get that in the UK. Because if you make it compulsory, you haver to have a 'none of the above' option.
And it would win in nearly every election, because we have a system that for 50+ years has been focused on voting against something rather than for something else. Starmer being the prime beneficiary right now.
No you don't.
Compulsory voting means turning up. Vote. Spoil your ballot with a cock and balls or leave it blank. All options. None of the above is entirely unneeded. In fact a terrible idea.
The betting stuff, usually on those novelty bets there is quite a low betting maximum like maybe €/£20 because bookies don't want to open themselves up on anything but legitimate sports generally.
I don't know what the odds of the date in question were but I can't imagine they were massive so you'd have politicians/their mates making these bets of £20 at odds of maybe 10/1? It seems so small.
I don't know what the odds of the date in question were but I can't imagine they were massive so you'd have politicians/their mates making these bets of £20 at odds of maybe 10/1? It seems so small.
They are not very good at picking out independents in those polls, and workers party is small enough that this is what they are. A bunch of indpendents using pooled resources to make things a little easier for them. Some independents are on a hiding to nothing, like the South African chap running against Starmer, be lucky to get his deposit back, but some are making in roads.
I think streeting, phillips and raynor anre all at risk. 2 of them are incredibly dislikable people in person, and having a local left leaning alternative will cut through, and there is a perception of raynor being a bit of a traitor to the left due to her remarks about corbyn, and that could cause trouble for her locally. The workers party candidate seems a really good person too, good speaker, knows her stuff.
The Lily's Samosa Chat is like crack....
Just had a haircut and the barbers voting reform. That was a bit awkward. To be fair he’s just very anti establishment and think Reform would look out for the little guy.
This is on the media. Farage is a public school educated former commodity trader.
Reform is a private company funded by some of the richest people in the world, the richest of them likes to spend his time in Singapore. They talk about immigration, but most of those involved live outside the UK.
They are the establishment, the walking, talking embodiment of money = power. But our media spend their time arguing whether it was terrible farage got milkshaked or not. Or that he has a point about boats.
The reason people keep thinking farage is the anti-establishment man is because he says it, and not one media outlet ever even attempts to explain why it is a lie.
Imagine the UK having a conversation about compulsory voting, and it being explained that it just means you MUST go to some school or village hall, just to draw a picture of a cock on a ballot paper.
They would have to present a reason to change.
Exactly this!
Think you're missing why he appeals to them and I don't think many are oblivious to his background, they just don't care.
The British public largely don't care about class or even wealth, they care about how 'down to earth' someone acts. Someone like Starmer will always be judged as more elitist no matter how much he bangs on about being the son of a tool maker. Farage isn't seen as the establishment as he isn't seen as a elitist that judges them, he can be the grifter and they'll not only accept it but think better of him for it. Not much different to Trump there.
As for immigration we all know these people have absolutely no issues with white migration., half of his voter base want to move to Spain and Portugal if they could.
By who?
Nah. Farage is who he is because even though he went to the same schools and made loads of money in an Apex Capitalism entity, his face didn’t fit. He wasn’t accepted into the places he felt should have opened their doors and membership. It’s why Coutts actually meant so much to him - despite him contorting the issue to his benefit.
He’s anti establishment. But only to his own ends. He doesn’t fight for the average bloke in a Spoons. But grifters find an audience there. He detests his base with regards to their lifestyles and intellect. He doesn’t try to help. He just wants their vote.
What he wants, is access to high society and to be welcomed into it. He is warring with the people he thinks are his peers
I’ve often pondered whether he’d just be a noisy nuisance if The Tories put him in the Lords. Right headed non Nazi folk would have to tolerate him popping up every now and again, but he wouldn’t be as loud as he is now.
This is not a defence of him. If I were an omnipotent force and had to press a button to decide the order of who died in this country, he’s the second name on the list.
I think anti-establishment to them is synonymous with someone proudly towing the line with bigoted rhetoric, i.e. the whole 'I'm just saying what most people are afraid to say' shtick, as well as flat out homophobia/transphobia. Like you've rightly suggested it has nothing to do with class. Its the same reason idiots worship cultish grifters like Trump and Musk despite them coming from billionaire stock, while adhering to the conspiracies behind other billionaires like Soros and Gates. If Farage had a complete personality transplant and started preaching about the benefits of immigration while urging environmental responsibility he'd quickly be thrown in with the 'establishment Liberal elite'.
Local sentiment. From living in her constituency.
Might be nothing, but we'll see how she fares on the 4th.
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It's a must have. Definitely.
Workers Party and (sadly) Reform seem to have a fair bit of support around here.
Why would they even take bets if it's such a sure thing?
Idiot deserves to be booted out on his ear. At first I thought he had made a bet that he would win which I could have felt some sympathy for (even if thinking he still needs to be subject to the rules) but betting against yourself has clear implications on fairness.
Labour should have let him stand. Perhaps the constituents would have voted him in out of spite.
Seems like it should be illegal, honestly.
Might have been a lot closer this time, on electoral calculus it was basically considered a toss-up due to the Tories collapse.
Heh, that makes his actions so much worse.
So impotent whining then
Yep, it's massively fecked up.
Oh, I was whining was I? Thanks for letting me know.
I thought I was just commenting on what it's like around here at the moment. Thought it might have been of general interest and that nobody could possibly take it personally.
I'd love to know the criteria by which you decide which posts are acceptable and which are just impotent whining. I'm sure before you hit post on yours, you're satisfied that they all fulfill the 'insightful commentary' category.
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Why are these idiots betting themselves
Strongly suspect this insider betting dates back to previous elections.
For those that don't know, this guy donated £100K to the party right before he was given a seat to run in.
Probably expected to be put soemwhere he could win. Starmer screws over everyone, and I mean everyone. He'll do it to the entire country too.
This seems to be a good representation of where I personally thought the electorate might be. He's in striking distance should the polling be out and his personal brand actually is stronger, but he should lose to the labour candidate simply based on the fact that parties vs personal brand is always in favour of the party (with very unique outliers).
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