General Election 2024

[Rado_N]

there are greens, lib dems, independents. one candidate will at least have some of your major issues as their major issues. you just have to vote for them. it’s happened a lot this time around, smaller parties have never had so many votes, which shows how pathetic both major parties are as prospects for the country. not voting in a binary system is the same as voting in one. if you don’t like it, do something about it with your vote.

I fully agree with the sentiment about the other parties, what I dislike is this idea that people should by default be over the moon to vote for Labour just because the Tories are scum.

I’m delighted to see them in the gutter today, don’t get me wrong, but this Labour Party is not an exciting prospect in itself.

 

[SilentWitness]

Labour won hugely in my area but glad that Greens who I voted for were 2nd.

 

[DoubleDinhos]

There's more chance of me becoming PM in 2029 than Farage.

Maybe not Prime Minister but possibly the man pulling the strings all the same. Farage has been the most successful political operator in the last 20 years of British politics. The idea that he's just some petty grifter who will fall away eventually feels naive, at this point.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Wes streeting coming within 500 votes of losing to an independent is probably going to get lost because labour should rightly be celebrated for the win.
But I think its an important one. She wasn't a Corbyn with 40 years of service already, just a local woman, self funded and with no real media coverage bar places like Novara. If streeting does what he keeps saying, and ramps up privatisation of the NHS, she'll win next election.

There are a lot of those kind of results around the country. But the danger is many of those poised to take advantage if labour are as poor as they seem, are reform candidates.

 

[Plant0x84]

You love to see it!

 

[Andy_Cole]

There's more chance of me becoming PM in 2029 than Farage.

I don’t think so. Yes only 4 seats but the amount of votes they received is concerning. All they need to do is convert Tory voters.

 

[Drainy]

The result for Labour, as in votes received, hasn't changed much.

1997: 43.2 % vote share, 71.3 % turnout -> 30.8 % of registered voters voted for Labour.

2019: 32.1 % vote share, 67.3 % turnout -> 21.6 % of registered voters voted for Labour.

2024, approximate numbers: 35 % vote share, 60 % turnout -> 21 % of registered voters voted for Labour.

Among those who actually voted, Starmer did a little bit better than Corbyn. Among registered voters, he did marginally worse. It's pretty clear that this Labour landslide is because of the Conservative collapse, and has very little in common with other big victories like 1997. Labour's tactic of moving to the right has either not been attractive to many potential voters, or it has but at the same time been around equally off-putting to other voters.

The question in a FPTP system is where are the voters he won and lost.

Being in opposition to win you always need the government to be failing in some way, but if the point is that it was a referendum on the Tories, I completely agree and Labour positioned themselves to benefit from that within the system we have

 

[Solius]

Waking up to see Truss, JRM, Gullis and the rest of those cnuts voted out

Good Morning!

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I just think the evidence is there in the size of the lib dem result although we will need to see seat by seat how it played out to be sure.

In absolute terms the number of votes for the Lib Dems is also down from 2019 - it's just that millions fewer people bothered to turn up at all which is...sad.

 

[decorativeed]

That a massive landslide can come from such a relatively minor change in vote share reflects the ultimate vulnerability of Labour's position though, no?
It just as easily shift the other way next time.

I don't think the veneer of looking competent and being "adults in the room" will protect their already fragile popularity if all they do over the next five years is relatively more of the same neoliberal managerialism. You've got multiple Tories on tele this morning saying the party should be receptive to making deals with Farage next time around.

Exactly. The result in terms of seats masks what's actually happening in homes and at the polling stations. Engagement in the process is at an all time low and that leaves every landslide victory at risk of turning into a landslide loss next time around.

 

[F-Red]

Wes streeting coming within 500 votes of losing to an independent is probably going to get lost because labour should rightly be celebrated for the win.
But I think its an important one. She wasn't a Corbyn with 40 years of service already, just a local woman, self funded and with no real media coverage bar places like Novara. If streeting does what he keeps saying, and ramps up privatisation of the NHS, she'll win next election.

There are a lot of those kind of results around the country. But the danger is many of those poised to take advantage if labour are as poor as they seem, are reform candidates.

I think the result in Ilford North is one of those very few seats where the foreign policy in the Middle East dominated the local constituents, not about the NHS. If that dies down in the next years, then I don't think we'll see anything as close in the next general election.

 

[Andy_Cole]

Who the hell votes for Lib Dem, such a nothing party.

I did. Because I didn’t want to vote Labour.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Possibly. I could definitely be proven wrong. But I worry that Labour basically have no vision for a political landscape that's shifting rapidly around them. And I think people are fed up of being told austerity is the sensible adult option while inequality continues to grow.

Basically it needs to be producing tangible benefits within the five years. I don't think they have the goodwill to forestall in 2029 by saying it will get better after the next election we promise.

In my view, it's all going to come down to the economy. Can they get growth going again in this parliament?

Without growth, it's so much harder for wages to rise, living standards to improve, and public services to heal.

The quickest way to get growth going again is probably a massive liberalisation of the planning laws. We need to be able to build stuff — houses, infrastructure, industrial developments — without drowning in endless red tape. I know for a fact that huge amounts of business investment is being put off by our inability as a country to put shovels in the fecking ground.

Approving a load of development over the objections of local people (NIMBYs) is going to cause a lot of anger, including on Labour's backbenches. But it needs to be done.

 

[Parma Dewol]

Conservatives hold in my area. Plus a big rise for Reform. Oh the shame.

 

[Buster15]

Good, my mortgage went up directly due to her. We still have to ensure her getting her PM expenses allowance and turning up to other events but she deserves this.

She was running off after being kicked out so she could get in her car surrounded by security guards so she can go off to count her money as a consolation. Poor thing.

 

[Wilt]

George Galloway loses his seat in Rochdale.

Loathsome turd didn’t even turn up for the result

 

[Revan]

So in the end Reform gets 4 seats, not 13. That’s good.

And Liz Truss loses her seat. That’s even better.

 

[decorativeed]

Wes streeting coming within 500 votes of losing to an independent is probably going to get lost because labour should rightly be celebrated for the win.
But I think its an important one. She wasn't a Corbyn with 40 years of service already, just a local woman, self funded and with no real media coverage bar places like Novara. If streeting does what he keeps saying, and ramps up privatisation of the NHS, she'll win next election.

There are a lot of those kind of results around the country. But the danger is many of those poised to take advantage if labour are as poor as they seem, are reform candidates.

It's a shame they couldn't have had her on the ballot for the Greens. That would have been enough to take Streeting down.

 

[Infra-red]

The talk was she wasn't even going to enter the hall so at least she did that, then.

Yes, Truss did at least show up. Unlike that dickhead George Galloway who hid in a hotel lobby watching the results on TV and refused to show up to the count to hear that he lost his seat to Labour’s Paul Waugh. The BBC tracked him down but he declined to respond to any questions.

 

[Revan]

• David Cameron's seat of Witney to the Lib Dems
• Theresa May's seat of Maidenhead to the Lib Dems
• Boris Johnson's seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip to Labour
• Liz Truss's seat of South West Norfolk to Labour

Cameron and May were not running, right? Cameron is now in the upper house as a Lord.

 

[nickm]

Labour's tactic of moving to the right has either not been attractive to many potential voters, or it has but at the same time been around equally off-putting to other voters.

I think that is very much not proven and misses the point of which voters in which seats, so it's not been equal. This was a kick out the Tories vote. I would guess that labour won because they flipped a load of previously Tory voters in the seats they were 2nd in. Labour voters in seats labour could not win, went to the lib Dems, which explains the change to vote share. Reform hit the Tory vote in some core Tory areas. While Labour lost some of its Corbyn vote to the greens.

Anyway, we will see.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Anyone nitpicking Labour's performance has lost all perspective. No one would have believed it was remotely possible for Labour to win in a landslide back in 2019 after the Corbyn disaster. It's a stunning turnaround in five years.

I hope the party can deliver in office. It won't be easy.

 

[TwoSheds]

Some competent technocracy is arguably exactly what we need right now. There isn't much money to spend but there is a lot of value to be had in getting into the weeds and simplifying the broken tax system, digitising the NHS, streamlining the planning laws etc.

If we are going to restart growth as a country, it's probably going to come from making sensible, boring long-term decisions, rather than blowing a load of cash on the government's favourite pet projects.

We need sensible, boring long term decisions (because we haven't had any for 14 years now) and some major undertakings. We won't solve by climate change or get green investment going by making it marginally easier for renewable energy firms to file their tax returns.

We absolutely need to do boring things like unfeck HMRC, electrify our railways (how do we still have diesel ones in such a tiny country FFS?), simplify planning laws... but we also need to actually set aside money to invest in infrastructure, public services, and support small businesses. We've spent 14 years trashing everything and meanwhile the problems have only been accelerating away from us. Just going back to where we were is not even close to enough.

 

[Frosty]

Labour win Hendon by 15 votes.

 

[NotThatSoph]

The question in a FPTP system is where are the voters he won and lost.

Being in opposition to win you always need the government to be failing in some way, but if the point is that it was a referendum on the Tories, I completely agree and Labour positioned themselves to benefit from that within the system we have

Sure, in the UK system it's good for Labour to gain some Tory voters, even if it makes a similar number of previous Labour voters stay home or vote Green. However, if Corbyn was such a disaster and Labour such a tarnished brand, then a well-run campaign shouldn't have much difficulty in actually gaining votes as well. They haven't really done that.

A huge amount of Tory voters stayed home or defected to Reform, that is what actually made Labour win in a landslide. Then you likely had some minor movement, where a low single digit percentage of right wingers turned to Labour.

 

[decorativeed]

Cameron and May were not running, right? Cameron is now in the upper house as a Lord.

Exactly. Only Truss out of that lot was running.

 

[Frosty]

Cameron and May were not running, right? Cameron is now in the upper house as a Lord.

The point is normally ex-PM's seats are super safe. Having so many change hands in one election is unprecedented.

 

[Traub]

Christ those worrying about voter share in five years time need to have their heads checked. Labour are in power now - if they fix things, they will remain in power in 5 years. If they don't fix things, they're out. Simple equation.

 

[Pexbo]

Anyone nitpicking Labour's performance has lost all perspective. No one would have believed it was remotely possible for Labour to win in a landslide back in 2019 after the Corbyn disaster. It's a stunning turnaround in five years.

I hope the party can deliver in office. It won't be easy.

The point is that Labour have literally only won because of the emergence of Reform. The majority they have won is indicative of how preposterous FPTP is and if you look at voting percentages around the country and compare only that, which is a much clearer indication of public sentiment and public support and they are show to be woefully lacking.

 

[TwoSheds]

I think that is very much not proven and misses the point of which voters in which seats, so it's not been equal. This was a kick out the Tories vote. I would guess that labour won because they flipped a load of previously Tory voters in the seats they were 2nd in. Labour voters in seats labour could not win, went to the lib Dems, which explains the change to vote share. Reform hit the Tory vote in some core Tory areas. While Labour lost some of its Corbyn vote to the greens.

Anyway, we will see.

I would say they lost some of their Corbyn vote to the Lib Dems, independents, and "too depressed to vote" as well tbf. But yes I agree with your overall assessment.

They need to avoid more missteps like the Gaza stuff and actually do something to make people's lives significantly better in the next 5 years though or I think they're fecked. Or at least it will be a hung parliament.

 

[decorativeed]

Anyone nitpicking Labour's performance has lost all perspective. No one would have believed it was remotely possible for Labour to win in a landslide back in 2019 after the Corbyn disaster. It's a stunning turnaround in five years.

I hope the party can deliver in office. It won't be easy.

I know you may mean the type of stuff I've been posting in here, but I think I'd classify it more as analysis than nit-picking. Behind the headline figure, it's not all rosy. The 'Corbyn diaaster' actually saw more people vote for Labour than have done this time around. The change has been massively influenced by how shit Johnson, Truss and Sunak have been, rather than how Labour have changed.

 

[SalfordRed18]

Chelsea and Fulham labour gain. Use to work in Chelsea and the people there that would typically vote are staunch tories. Well we're at least. Big result, don't think it's ever been a labour seat.

 

[SilentWitness]

Anyone nitpicking Labour's performance has lost all perspective. No one would have believed it was remotely possible for Labour to win in a landslide back in 2019 after the Corbyn disaster. It's a stunning turnaround in five years.

I hope the party can deliver in office. It won't be easy.

I mean that turnaround isn't because of Labour.

 

[Buster15]

Cameron and May were not running, right? Cameron is now in the upper house as a Lord.

Wonder whether he will still be anything to do with the Tory shadow cabinet. If not, good riddance.

 

[decorativeed]

Christ those worrying about voter share in five years time need to have their heads checked. Labour are in power now - if they fix things, they will remain in power in 5 years. If they don't fix things, they're out. Simple equation.

Well that was kind of my point. You're exactly right.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The point is that Labour have literally only won because of the emergence of Reform. The majority they have won is indicative of how preposterous FPTP is and if you look at voting percentages around the country and compare only that, which is a much clearer indication of public sentiment and public support and they are show to be woefully lacking.

In this very thread you have people explaining the importance of tactical voting and using FPTP to get rid of the Tories. The people voted for change and gave Labour a massive majority. This is a ringing endorsement of their campaign, which was based around exactly that goal. Wibbling about voting percentages really is missing the point.

 

[Buster15]

Anyone nitpicking Labour's performance has lost all perspective. No one would have believed it was remotely possible for Labour to win in a landslide back in 2019 after the Corbyn disaster. It's a stunning turnaround in five years.

I hope the party can deliver in office. It won't be easy.

Great post.

 

[Smores]

Sure, in the UK system it's good for Labour to gain some Tory voters, even if it makes a similar number of previous Labour voters stay home or vote Green. However, if Corbyn was such a disaster and Labour such a tarnished brand, then a well-run campaign shouldn't have much difficulty in actually gaining votes as well. They haven't really done that.

A huge amount of Tory voters stayed home or defected to Reform, that is what actually made Labour win in a landslide. Then you likely had some minor movement, where a low single digit percentage of right wingers turned to Labour.

Labour got out of the way whilst the Tories defeated themselves, that was always the plan really. We'll see some better analysis shortly but I think you're right in where the swing will be.

I think the data will say if Reform hadn't gained so much popularity in the last few months it would have been a small Labour win. Hard to say in retrospect whether those votes would have definitely stayed Tory though, they could have gone Lib Dems or non vote.

People can spin or hide it all they want but the Labour vote share is shite. Even with the SNP and Tories in crisis they've not won a huge amount of new voters. That means it'll be an unpopular government from the start and will need to prove itself over the next 4-5 years.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Christ those worrying about voter share in five years time need to have their heads checked. Labour are in power now - if they fix things, they will remain in power in 5 years. If they don't fix things, they're out. Simple equation.

To do that is to ignore the second biggest story of this election. reform. They have 15% of the vote, and are second in many northern seats. Farage and Conservative alliance, as happened in 2019, would mean a genuine far right government in this country next time out, just on today's numbers.

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

I am stunned that Labour in 2024 have won 410+ seats after the horror showing of 2019 and yet people are using every thing possible to tell us that they didn’t actually win this election.

On a side note why in this world was this on a Thursday night. How am I supposed to work after this