General Election 2024

[Grinner]

BBC is dull as feck

 

[Berbasbullet]

I'm torn by finding Nadine hilarious and thinking she's just ruining the show.

Serious eye candy though. Yes I said it.

God she needs to shut the feck up. Rest of them are sick of her.

 

[Dobba]

3 seats, 3 reform second place.

Reform+Tory combined wins Sunderland Central.

No spoilers for 2029!

 

[VP89]

BBC is dull as feck

Channel 4 is way better.

 

[Tyrion]

Brexit was more of a con to be fair. Reform has got these votes based of the Tories failing (repeatedly) to solve Reform issues. Labour is unlikely to resolve them either.

We might disagree how important or valid those issues are but it doesn't make them less applicable to Reforms voters.

Have to win the argument or fix the issues. Labour can't do the latter so they'll need to do the former rather than hide.

Immigration has been way higher the last few years as far as I know. Surely Labour can fix that at least.

 

[Hephaestus]

Exit Polls for your constituency if you can't to check - LINK

Frustrating to see my constituency has an 82% of staying with the Tories, would probably have switched if the Reform candidate didn't withdraw an hour before the deadline...

 

[Theon]

C4 is great TV

Nadine is awful but I can’t take my eyes away

 

[Grinner]

Channel 4 is way better.

I just flicked over to the Beeb and it was the same dull cnuts from 20 mins ago

 

[ThierryHenry]

There's two answers for this

There was a 40% vote for a solid left-wing manifesto and campaign in 2017- that potential is still there. If you transplant it into today's results, it's a substantially bigger landslide.


But would Corbyn, or anyone else sincerely campaigning on that platform, win this time, especially with these numbers? I don't think so, for several reasons.

The Tory downfall initially started in May 2020 when the press broke the lockdown-breaching stories. These stories eventually led to Boris' departure, and then to PM Truss, which left permanent hole in the party, which Sunak only slightly patched up. The role of the press in the Labour polling lead is massive. And I'm 100% absolutely confident that these stories would not have been front-page news if it was a left-wing Labour leader as the alternative. It's the status quo option that gave the press the space to have their fun with the Tories.

Second, based on vote share, Tory+Reform should be over 40%, while Labour are under it. In 2019, Farage stood down his candidates tactically to help the Tories. The Lib Dems did not. I believe Farage - with his class background - would do it again this time, if the alternative was a left-wing leader. So with a unified right, that 40% left Labour vote (the best case) still gets a tiny majority or hung parliament, not much more.

The economics is even more important. You can't have the Corbyn manifesto in this interest rate environment, as evidenced (clearly in a completely different way) by the Liz Truss mess.

 

[Balljy]

Why are the BBC treating it like Labour are losing to reform?

 

[Berbasbullet]

Why are the BBC treating it like Labour are losing to reform?

They are all at it, great result for Reform but Labour has come back from being 'dead' to winning more seats than everyone combined.

 

[FlawlessThaw]

Why are the BBC treating it like Labour are losing to reform?

Channel 4 are doing it as well, I think it's because everyone expected a Labour landslide but the switch in Labour voters to Reform in part was not as expected.

 

[WPMUFC]

Why are the BBC treating it like Labour are losing to reform?

Because Laura is trying to woo Farage for a weekly interview.

 

[altodevil]

Why are the BBC treating it like Labour are losing to reform?

Because at this stage you need to look at the vote share and the swings. The exit poll vote share for Labour was 4% less than what Corbyn achieved.

 

[Grinner]

haha they've told Nadine to feck off

 

[Balljy]

Because Laura is trying to woo Farage for a weekly interview.

I reckon Boris will go Reform after the election. That wouldn't be good.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Why are the BBC treating it like Labour are losing to reform?

I can't remember if elections are always like this (I assume so?), but it's a bizarre reaction, where the focus is on how and where the results are different to the polls, rather than what it means for the country over the new parliament. I guess an expected landslide just makes it less interesting TV.

Presumably that changes tomorrow, where the news is that Starmer is PM, who his cabinet is and what they're going to do.

 

[Dobba]

Mad that with this panel in place it took someone as batshit as Dorries to point out the hilarity of Alastair Campbell calling anyone else a liar.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Exit Polls for your constituency if you can't to check - LINK

99% gain.

 

[altodevil]

Mad that with this panel in place it took someone as batshit as Dorries to point out the hilarity of Alastair Campbell calling anyone else a liar.

Yeah I enjoyed that

 

[Grinner]

KamiKwasi got voted off the island too

 

[Smores]

I can't remember if elections are always like this (I assume so?), but it's a bizarre reaction, where the focus is on how and where the results are different to the polls, rather than what it means for the country over the new parliament. I guess an expected landslide just makes it less interesting TV.

Presumably that changes tomorrow, where the news is that Starmer is PM, who his cabinet is and what they're going to do.

This is always what the election coverage is like, they delight in the technicalities and reasoning. They don't tend to spend their time cheerleading the winner.

Reform vote share is currently a far bigger story than Labour winning. We've know Labour would win for months.

 

[Plant0x84]

I'm torn by finding Nadine hilarious and thinking she's just ruining the show.

Serious eye candy though. Yes I said it.

The woman is an absolute thundertwunt of the worst kind. Right up there with Liz Truss.
C4 have done well to get her on tonight considering how far she wedged herself up Boris Johnson’s anus.

 

[WPMUFC]

SWINDON GAIN

 

[Ekkie Thump]

If it's any consolation to those lamenting the Reform vote share, it means that so far the most accurate pollsters have been Electoral Calculus STM and Electoral Calculus MRP.

STM final prediction is:​

LAB: 469​

CON: 61​

LIB: 71​

SNP 15​

REF: 7​

GRN: 3​

MRP final prediction is:​

LAB: 449​

CON: 60​

LIB: 71​

SNP: 24​

REF: 18​

GRN: 4​

​

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

 

[macheda14]

Probably the first election in my life time where I’ll thank the lord we don’t have proportional representation.

 

[Grinner]

Why isn't swing talked about anymore?

 

[WPMUFC]

4-0 throw in the towel

 

[Dobba]

 

[DanH]

Bridget is a babe

The sheer message discipline there is from a lot of the Labour front bench is what stuck out to me.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Why isn't swing talked about anymore?

Too complicated when there are multiple directions swinging?

 

[Berbasbullet]

Probably the first election in my life time where I’ll thank the lord we don’t have proportional representation.

So true!

 

[Fully Fledged]

Sky are trying to push the Tories to Incorporate reform that's an awful take.

 

[Dobba]

Probably the first election in my life time where I’ll thank the lord we don’t have proportional representation.

Democracy, boo!

 

[Theon]

C4 coverage has nose dived. What the feck is this

 

[Berbasbullet]

C4 coverage has nose dived. What the feck is this

What part of a sausage does Kier look like?!

 

[Fully Fledged]

C4 coverage has nose dived. What the feck is this

So has Sky's. It's turned into a Tory pity party.

 

[Grinner]

C4 coverage has nose dived. What the feck is this

The face of Reform I think

 

[buchansleftleg]

I think the exit poll is wrong and tories will get far fewer seats.

Tory on Swindon count....was a hopeful sign for the future. Graceful in defeat and rejecting lurching to the right.

 

[Grinner]

I forgot about ITV but 8 seconds of Peston sent me right back to the Beeb