Max hasn’t finished outside of the top 5 practically all season, so that should be your starting point for what might happen the remaining races. Norris has floated around the top 3 with two race wins all season.
I’m not saying Norris hasn’t got a great chance, Lewis would probably cut down this gap, as shown previously. But the reason Max is still a big favourite in the betting markets is the overall package. Current Car performance favours Norris, but history, experience, driver skill, lack of margin for error, points already in the bank…it all favours Max.