That analysis was done in November. I'd like to see some more recent data to see how much more he's improved.
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) look forward to a new life under Ruben Amorim. What system will we be playing? What players will impress? and how will it all go? We also say goodbye to Ruud Van Nistelrooy and review United's 3-0 win at home against Leicester City.
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That analysis was done in November. I'd like to see some more recent data to see how much more he's improved.
Come on John Harrison. Quit gold bricking and give us some up to date data, damn it.
Another point I would make is that if we do replace De Gea and the other keeper can't handle the pressure, do we really want to jeopardise this teams progress by throwing an unknown into the mix?
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Yep! A lot of it was coaching and I think his development was hurt a ton. When he first came his passing was seen as a strength but it wasn't developed at all. Unfortunately it's definitely not a strength, just not quite as bad. But you can tell that his passing out from the back leaves a lot to be desired compared to the best.
The sweeping never bothered me too much.
My biggest concern with him always has been his aerial weakness... Claiming crosses, knowing when to punch/catch and having the ability to do it is the biggest one where he's just very weak at and it's a big problem in the prem. Probably the biggest reason we are as bad at defending set pieces as we are.
As @bosnian_red explained, De Gea is "average" over the course of the season. He is VERY GOOD currently. This is the problem, people in general tend to remember his last few games and then they read that he's "average shot stopper".
Just a few weeks ago he was on PSxG -0,1 and now he's aleady -0,05, what means if he continues on current form he is likely to get into top5 shot stoppers in the league - sounds about right?
PSxG is a nasty parameter because a few bad games (City, Brentford) make you look very, very bad as a goalkeeper. Now he's getting back to the "average" line but with clearly positive trend.
See this:
But De Gea had a lot of very good games in the last 1-2 months, so he might be reaching the top 5 shot stoppers in the league already if it wasn't for Brighton and Brentford. But why would we be excluding those games to calculate the average? This is the moment his experience was needed, he and the team failed and this will be reflected in overall season stats. Being great on one day and poor on another is exactly what "average" means, it doesn't mean he's average every game.
Now getting to those tables shared by John Harrison:
There's a couple months difference but you can still see the same names on on top 5-7 and the same for bottom 5-7, what would indicate those models are not that far off each other.
You're referring to tweet from June 22'. In November Harrison labeled De Gea "average". Again, he clearly improved after World Cup.
Exactly.
Anyway, the point is not to prove he's average shotstopper. Considering De Gea is clearly poor at preventing shots and distribution (whatever data, eye test or any other method you use to judge that), he really needs to be TOP shot stopper for United to make it worth sticking with him next season.
To be honest there has been plenty of reasons and evidence presented here and in other threads to support the claim that De Gea should be replaced in the summer, while the only reasonable contr argument is that we might end up getting worse GK than him. That doesn't convince me at all. Not if we are aiming high. And definitely not if we're looking long term.
That is actually my biggest worry. A new GK who cannot handle the pressures of being United's #1, because no other keeper has to deal with this level of scrutiny. I admit that De Gea has flaws, but I rarely engage in discussion of who should replace him, because I do not know who has that level of mental resilience. That's for ten Hag and the scouts to figure out.
John Harrison, the most pretentious man on the internet.
As @bosnian_red explained, De Gea is "average" over the course of the season. He is VERY GOOD currently. This is the problem, people in general tend to remember his last few games and then they read that he's "average shot stopper".
Just a few weeks ago he was on PSxG -0,1 and now he's aleady -0,05, what means if he continues on current form he is likely to get into top5 shot stoppers in the league - sounds about right?
PSxG is a nasty parameter because a few bad games (City, Brentford) make you look very, very bad as a goalkeeper. Now he's getting back to the "average" line but with clearly positive trend.
See this:
But De Gea had a lot of very good games in the last 1-2 months, so he might be reaching the top 5 shot stoppers in the league already if it wasn't for Brighton and Brentford. But why would we be excluding those games to calculate the average? This is the moment his experience was needed, he and the team failed and this will be reflected in overall season stats. Being great on one day and poor on another is exactly what "average" means, it doesn't mean he's average every game.
Now getting to those tables shared by John Harrison:
There's a couple months difference but you can still see the same names on on top 5-7 and the same for bottom 5-7, what would indicate those models are not that far off each other.
You're referring to tweet from June 22'. In November Harrison labeled De Gea "average". Again, he clearly improved after World Cup.
Exactly.
Anyway, the point is not to prove he's average shotstopper. Considering De Gea is clearly poor at preventing shots and distribution (whatever data, eye test or any other method you use to judge that), he really needs to be TOP shot stopper for United to make it worth sticking with him next season.
To be honest there has been plenty of reasons and evidence presented here and in other threads to support the claim that De Gea should be replaced in the summer, while the only reasonable contr argument is that we might end up getting worse GK than him. That doesn't convince me at all. Not if we are aiming high. And definitely not if we're looking long term.
A very good post but I have some questions for you.
If De Gea does make it into the top 5 would you still want to get rid and if so for who?
Where did he rank in the same metric last year?
As recently as June, John Harrison was describing him as an awesome shot stopper. Shouldn't we take last year's performance into consideration especially considering the same analyst has also described him as an above average sweeper and distributor this season?
Do you think we should risk this teams progress by getting in an unknown, a potential Karius/Bravo for example rather than sticking with the "awesome shot stopper/above average sweeper/distributor" we know? Shaky goalies have a tendency to destabilise an entire team.
Would the Ederson error midweek show in these stats?
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Well this is probably the first time in about 5 years someone has tried to explain something to me with the inclination that I'm overrated him. I say one positive thing about the guy and get jumped on, christ
I'm well aware of what "average" means and why you are trying to use it to suit the argument, I have used it too in the past to show why his levels are nowhere near where people think they are. His statistics season on season tend to be relatively "average" I agree, but the reality is that his own levels on a game by game (or even a month by month) basis however are very rarely at that level of "average", he is a goalkeeper who tends to perform at one extreme level or the other. As such I wouldn't label him an "average shot stopper".
IF he continues this form and gets in top 5 then we're on title winning form. TBH even now I would be OK with sticking to De Gea, but under some conditions. To put it very simple, if we can only afford a CF and CM (Casemiro backup), let's stick to De Gea. If we can get a top CB, or maybe two strikers (if we bin Sancho) - I can give you many scenarios.
-0,03, 3rd after Alisson and Sa. Looks like pretty shite season for GKs.
This is one thing that doesn't add up with the stats I checked, and what I see. I don't rate his passing ability high, he's still bottom of the league on catching high balls etc. Would you agree with that judgment? I thought we started this season trying to play from the back, got hurt and then he was told to just launch it. This is what he still does usually when under pressure. Sometimes he gets the pass right, sometimes not. There is staggering difference to elite GKs. I think this is next step for us and we're not making it with De Gea.
Well we are risking the team progress either way, don't we?
Stick with De Gea? For how long? One season? He is also getting older, and big part of his saving ability is based on athletism.
Replace De Gea? Obviously we take a risk. But we have to take it either now, or after a year or so. But if we can agree that De Gea has improved under Ten Hag, why can't we assume any new goalkeeper will not improve as well? Safe to assume this is De Gea "final form" . Especially if we are to move to possession based football, high line etc.
Why now? Basically because our defensive line is at it's peak. I would rather stick to them for another season, get a new GK now and chase CB next summer. It doesn't get much better than current Varane and Casemiro. Again, there are scenarios where I would be OK with not replacing him, but "we're not getting anyone better" isn't something I can agree with.
The most ridiculous statement I read multiple times this season is we will replace De Gea with a better-all round keeper but much worse shot stopping ability. It's like there is nothing between Ronaldo and Weghorst. And again it is possible he ends up this season as one of the top shot-stoppers, but I don't think it's very likely. A lot of catching up to do. If he manages that - we will be in heaven.
I don't know. Why is it relevant? He's not having a good season. I think Pep prioritized ball playing GK over any other ability, which worked so far, but this season they already conceded as many goals as total last season.
That was unintended. Reading your previous post I only realized that calling De Gea "average" shotstopper might be misunderstood. Your explanation is better, inconsistency is the key. GKs on the positive extreme end don't need to make super saves every game, because PSxG model still values those shots highly. It's enough if they keep all the low-medium quality shots out consistently over the season. A couple of bad scorelines and they go back to negative. Which is what happened to De Gea early this season and now he's coming back, flying high.Well this is probably the first time in about 5 years someone has tried to explain something to me with the inclination that I'm overrated him. I say one positive thing about the guy and get jumped on, christ
I'm well aware of what "average" means and why you are trying to use it to suit the argument, I have used it too in the past to show why his levels are nowhere near where people think they are. His statistics season on season tend to be relatively "average" I agree, but the reality is that his own levels on a game by game (or even a month by month) basis however are very rarely at that level of "average", he is a goalkeeper who tends to perform at one extreme level or the other. As such I wouldn't label him an "average shot stopper".
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OK so he was 3rd last year and if he continues his current form he'll be top 5 this year, so as far as I can see only Allison really stands out as a superior keeper over the past 2 years in this metric, supposing De Gea does continue his current form. (Fingers crossed)
I got the quote about his sweeping and distribution from our good friend John Harrison. It was in the stuff bosnian_red sent me. Harrison said he was above average in the Premier League this season. My eye test says both have really improved this year.
I was asking the question about Ederson because I wanted to know how these stats on crossing work. Do the stats acknowledge the mistake Ederson made getting caught under the ball and leaving an open goal? Or do they just say he collects 4 times more crosses than De Gea and that's better?
All in all, I fully accept that Allison is a better keeper, after that I don't see an obvious upgrade but will happily listen to bids.
I got the quote about his sweeping and distribution from our good friend John Harrison. It was in the stuff bosnian_red sent me. Harrison said he was above average in the Premier League this season. My eye test says both have really improved this year.
I was asking the question about Ederson because I wanted to know how these stats on crossing work. Do the stats acknowledge the mistake Ederson made getting caught under the ball and leaving an open goal? Or do they just say he collects 4 times more crosses than De Gea and that's better?
All in all, I fully accept that Allison is a better keeper, after that I don't see an obvious upgrade but will happily listen to bids.
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But De Gea wasn't that good shot stopper in previous years. Especially when we were doing good as a team. A few players stand out this season in EPL alone and we should probably take a look at them. I won't speculate about this season, because I don't think it's reasonable to expect him making saves like recently. If he ends up with PSxG=0, he still would have a good season in my eyes. And still I think we should move on.
I think you're reading too much into that. What does it mean he's above average in ball playing? Is he 9th, 5th or 2nd? How is that even measured? Tbh I would expect nothing less than being in top half in that aspect even if we took random EPL keeper to play for United, we are after all a good team now. It's far more impressive if keepers playing for mid table (or lower) teams are doing good job passing from the back. I assume they would only do better at team like United, would you disagree?
But what would it tell you? It's one extreme or the other. We're entering the Wout vs Ronaldo area again. This is why we need to look for a balanced goalkeeper.
I agree he was terrible in previous years. 3 years ago I wanted him gone. Now I think he's playing well enough to get a new contract.
I don't know about the sweeping/distribution stat but he's better than most this year according to Harrison. He definitely has been working on it.
I was just asking about the crossing stat because I want to know how comprehensive these stats are. Sometimes it pays off to stay on your line. If somebody cost his team 3 or 4 goals over the course of the season, then that would negate any good they did by relieving pressure throughout the season.
He's doing well in shot stopping (on current form, even if still nothing more than average over the course of the season in EPL). He's doing better in terms of distribution, although like I said before, the team setup is better and he's encouraged to do so by Ten Hag. Still bottom of the league in terms of % of crosses stopped (he also faces a lot of them, for example Martinez who tops that metric faces 22% less crosses - seems like a tactic used against De Gea).
Honestly I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to improve significantly on his weaknessess, not at this stage of his career. But we should definitely expect any new GK to improve when training under Ten Hag, so I don't understand why are people NOT excited to bring in a new, modern keeper.
I definitely prefer when De Gea stays on the line because he's not good at defending crosses. This always makes me nervous.
At the end of the day, we need to look what stand out ability he brings to the team, because being overall average keeper and sometimes poor, sometimes great shot stoppper I think is not enough to stick with him. If he continues on current form, we might have this discussion again in 2,5 months.
For me it’s because I can see a new goalkeeper being world class at sweeping and playing passes but ultimately I don’t think anyone would provide the saves that De Gea does even with coaching.
I see this with Allison the most - absolutely beast at everything but can let some easy goals in.
De Gea has improved in sweeping and playing passes and improving some but not all cross punches - but his shotstopping is easily the best in the world.
That save where he literally picked the ball out of the net recently with his right hand whilst diving in to the right post was an example of this.
No one can provide that for us.
I’d get a good young goalkeeper that provides what De Gea doesn’t and ask him to be our no 2 until De Gea makes mistakes/needs to be dropped and then can prove himself to us - rather than selling De Gea or instantly dropping De Gea for a new Sweeping toy.
But Alisson has been the best shot stopper over the course of this season and over the last 3 seasons... I mean, looking at the numbers he's having amazing season in terms of making saves.
I understand people just "see" how amazing De Gea is at making saves and will not change their mind. Personally I DO THINK he's very good at it, but at the same time overrated compared to "the rest". I will no longer take part in this debate on shot stopping ability though. I rest my case at this point.
That's just not true.
For every wonder save vs Leceister you can easily point to the Alonso goal v Barca where he just let it bounce past him on the post. Similar situations and he let the easier chance to save go in.
He's just too inconsistent in his shot stopping. Which is why he ends up with an average overall save % compared to every other keeper in the league despite making these world class saves that no one else can every other game.
This season he's not been outstanding overall but last season his shot stopping was world class.
The problem with those stats is the weighting, it gives an average amount of weight to each different metric whereas in the real world we know that accuracy of long balls isn't as important as shot stopping for example and I'd wager the thing's he is poor at aren't as important as the things he is good at which does reflect negatively on him on these averagely weighted combined metrics.
Disclaimer: That's not to say the thing's he isn't good at such as defending corners or passing isn't important but your bread and butter is making saves.
Disclaimer: That's not to say the thing's he isn't good at such as defending corners or passing isn't important but your bread and butter is making saves.
Again he makes great saves but lets other more saveable shots in. Last season he got beat at his near post more times than I care to remember.
Stats and the eye test don't add up to what you are claiming.
Well John Harrison stats say his shot stopping saved us 10.14 goals last season
In June he called him an awesome shot stopper
The stats do back up what I'm saying
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Ok John Harrison but De Gea didn't kick the ball to Real Madrid player to make it 2-2 via OG and boosted their morale so the team ended up losing 5-2.
Funny you mentioned that. Didn't De Gea kick the ball straight to Barca player when we were a goal down last game?
Interesting stats from last year when every player was shit under Ole.
Ten Hag has improved De Gea.
Also the Raphinha goal was a cross/curve shot.
Lewandowski had every ability to tap it in or it was going in through the shot alone.
De Gea clearly stays rooted to the spot to stop Lewandowski potentially tapping it in whilst Lewandowski completely misses it and the ball rolls in to the net.
Ive always been a critic of De Gea in past seasons but I will never call Raphinha’s goal a goalkeeping mistake.
Lewandowski had every ability to tap it in or it was going in through the shot alone.
De Gea clearly stays rooted to the spot to stop Lewandowski potentially tapping it in whilst Lewandowski completely misses it and the ball rolls in to the net.
Ive always been a critic of De Gea in past seasons but I will never call Raphinha’s goal a goalkeeping mistake.
Aye, the gospel according to John.
Who does highlight good stuff.
He says he was worth 10 goals. I could give you 10 he should have done better on. He finished the season with just about a positive psxg according to other stats. Overall JH has him on +2.96. So who's right? John or the other guys?
If you are going down that route.
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7 mistakes, 6 of which resulted in a goal.
Thank god De Gea never makes mistakes that can be found on YouTube easily.
TBH neither of those two is error-prone gk. Also, I don't think this kind of arguments make De Gea any favor.
No matter! Let Ten Hag decide!
Happy with both a new option and the old option this year.
The fact he loaned Butland makes me feel a bit more confident that De Gea isn’t going anywhere even if he turns to our No 2
Happy with both a new option and the old option this year.
The fact he loaned Butland makes me feel a bit more confident that De Gea isn’t going anywhere even if he turns to our No 2
Beautiful stuff from last year! Just like your stats
Stats don't lie.
He's just an average PL keeper now.
Could very easily be replaced. Henderson already proved that.
Again shit from last year!
Rashford was shit with shit stats last year! Stats lie a lot of the time
Lets see how many trophies we can win and finish of in the league in Ten Hag’s first season with us and him!
Plenty of compliments from the manager all the time so what your thoughts are make shit all difference to me
First half of the season he certainly was. Second half he dropped right off and was nowhere near as good. So that first half of last season is the only time in the last five years that he's had world class shot-stopping.
So what are Allison's xG stats like now his defence and team have turned to shit? Basically what De Gea has had to work with throughout most of his tenure in the PL?
This kind of analysis is idiotic when performed on a single player and ignoring all context.
Can’t wait until he signs the contract, questioned him a lot recently and rightly so as his form was terrible but wasn’t everybody’s? He has been brilliant this season, the players love him, manager loves him and I hope he gets many more years here winning trophies and smashing records.
Exactly.
Again shit from last year!
Rashford was shit with shit stats last year! Stats lie a lot of the time
Lets see how many trophies we can win and finish of in the league in Ten Hag’s first season with us and him!
Plenty of compliments from the manager all the time so what your thoughts are make shit all difference to me
Too many emojis there for me.
Learn to use your words and form your own opinions then maybe you might make a valid point.
He's having his best season in terms of PSxG. He conceded the same number of goals as De Gea this season (28) despite the model expected him to concede about 35 (+7). That is massive. For comparison, De Gea overall is expected to concede 26 (so he's on -2). His best season (17/18) he overperformed his PSxG by a record +10 goals (conceded 28, was expected to concede 38,5).
Obviously since then the model has been re-designed to make De Gea look bad.
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