[Lentwood]

True, though you could point to Ederson who is also average on 1v1s as per that analysis, except in his case it's for the exact opposite reason as he's too quick to rush out:



What's probably key there is the fact that despite being in such an attacking side, Ederson faced the fifth fewest 1v1s of goalkeepers on that list. Whereas someone like Alison was pretty significantly busier, facing 54 versus Ederson's 31. If your team protects you more a lot flies under the radar...

Depending on how many De Gea faces, it's probably less of a problem than him not being able to claim crosses or whatever.

Champions League final vs Chelsea a good example of a finish he actually made easier with a poorly-timed engagement with Havertz.

That's why I never mentioned Ederson in my example, because even visually I think you can see he is a flawed goalkeeper (obviously Pep feels he is +EV overall)

EDIT | Sorry realised that post IS about the CL final. I am on my phone and the tweet hadnt loaded properly

 

[largelyworried]

Interesting but we really are getting into the realms of the highly theoretical/subjective use of statistics and Data there!

I think I mentioned elsewhere, I do tonnes of statistical analysis on horse races using sectional times - if you only ever bet on the horses who simply post the fastest times or even fastest sectional times, you'll go bust fast!

Still...as I said, interesting. Better to have it and apply it selectively or with caveats than not at all

To be fair there's no real difference between post-shot xG and regular xG. Same basic principle, you're just judging a different moment in the attack.

On your other point, it boils down to whether you're analysing the past or forecasting the future. We can rank performances with a pretty solid level of consistency these days. But while past performance remains a great indicator of future performance, its far from the only indicator.

 

[Oranges038]

Wouldn't it be because Ole and Mourinho were counter attacking managers and our tactics didn't really need a sweeping keeper

Given the massive leaps in tactical decisions by some of our other players (ie Dalot) I'd also suggest there's a strong influence of ETH developing their positioning and triggers of when to move.

Doesn't really make sense because there were loads of instances under both where he should have swept but didn't. Take Pope as an exmaple at Burnley, they played deep and on the counter yet he was one of the top sweeper keeper in the league there.

Goalkeeper starting position should be around the penalty spot 90% of the time when the ball is in those positions where it will be clipped over the defence. That's just very basic goalkeeping.

 

[Lentwood]

To be fair there's no real difference between post-shot xG and regular xG. Same basic principle, you're just judging a different moment in the attack.

On your other point, it boils down to whether you're analysing the past or forecasting the future. We can rank performances with a pretty solid level of consistency these days. But while past performance remains a great indicator of future performance, its far from the only indicator.

Agree with the above. My main contention with xS is that it ignores the impact a GK can have on affecting the difficulty of the chance/save - which is one of the conversations bubbling away in this thread.

My personal take is goalkeepers like De Gea and Lloris might outperform xS/xG but then you have to ask does their style by nature lend itself to making shots more difficult for them to save?

If so...then really it's a misleading statistic

 

[Alemar]

Another clean sheet and a very good double save in the first half.

 

[Based Adnan]

Made a meal of the parry but good recovery

 

[mu4c_20le]

just de gea things

 

[Olecurls99]

I don't think the selection of De Gea means he fancies him. I think neither are his cup of tea and Henderson is just easier to shift and eager to move. De Gea has no realistic options unless he wants a huge salary cut and to play for a smaller team.

ETH will presumably try and get De Gea to be a lot more proactive as a keeper, but remember, a large part of De Geas strengths as a keeper come from the fact that he stays on his line all the time. Even if he tries to change his game at this late stage in his career, I would say it's as likely that asking him to change would disrupt his strengths as much as mitigate his weaknesses.

Any change in your opinion?

Pinged a ball to Bruno for the goal. Been doing it all season. It doesn't take a Juninho.

He also has been off his line a lot more. Amazing what a bit of simple instruction can do.

 

[Passitlikescholes]

Doesn't really make sense because there were loads of instances under both where he should have swept but didn't. Take Pope as an exmaple at Burnley, they played deep and on the counter yet he was one of the top sweeper keeper in the league there.

Goalkeeper starting position should be around the penalty spot 90% of the time when the ball is in those positions where it will be clipped over the defence. That's just very basic goalkeeping.

I get that and you'd expect some goalkeepers have a natural tendency to sweep those up. But for a keeper who doesn't (which is what de Gea is), he has to be instructed by the coaching team of what triggers to look for, of reading the play/defence/opposition attack. I just don't think Mourinho or Ole's coaching teams instructed that in him, which is why he stuck to his tendency of staying where he was.

But we see now, with ETH coaching him, De Gea is being told when to go and sweep.

 

[Reapersoul20]

How quickly opinions change, I was being eviscerated for defending him last season

 

[largelyworried]

Any change in your opinion?

Pinged a ball to Bruno for the goal. Been doing it all season. It doesn't take a Juninho.

He also has been off his line a lot more. Amazing what a bit of simple instruction can do.

Last season De Gea finished the season ranked 3rd for shot-stopping in the league. Currently he's ranked 17th. So who knows how the season will pan out, but let's just say my comment hasn't been proven wrong just yet.

 

[Greck]

I no longer believe he will even be replaced for a sweeper. His kicking and coming out have jumped massively. That was a blazing quick adaptation. He was an excellent kicker when he first got here but I thought that talent was long gone.

 

[Olecurls99]

Last season De Gea finished the season ranked 3rd for shot-stopping in the league. Currently he's ranked 17th. So who knows how the season will pan out, but let's just say my comment hasn't been proven wrong just yet.

You think his willingness to pick out players is somehow affecting his shot stopping ability ? Interesting theory

 

[Olecurls99]

Last season De Gea finished the season ranked 3rd for shot-stopping in the league. Currently he's ranked 17th. So who knows how the season will pan out, but let's just say my comment hasn't been proven wrong just yet.

He conceded 10 goals in 2 shocking team performances. He's conceded 6 in the other 10. And he's able to pass which was deemed impossible by some.

 

[sullydnl]

just de gea things

Minor point but I like the on-the-pitch vibe of our defence at the moment. They seem to encouraging each other a lot and celebrating saves/blocks/clean sheets with extra intensity. Seems like morale and communication is good within the back five.

 

[CloneMC16]

How quickly opinions change, I was being eviscerated for defending him last season

The discussion on De Gea has been polarising for ages now. There are some of us that want to see him replaced and others that think you must be crazy to want to replace him.

I definitely think he's improved this season. Full credit to him. I never thought I would see him flying out of goal and sweeping for us. I would still replace him with a keeper with a wider skillset. Unless he improves on his cross claiming and close range 1v1's. If he does that, I will be all in on keeping him here.

 

[MUFC OK]

Time to move on and get a goalkeeper who can get 2 assist a season.

Ive just read Alex Turks tweets and I’m convinced. Utter helmet.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

How quickly opinions change, I was being eviscerated for defending him last season

Well who could argue now you’ve got u/chudlydudly on your side?!

 

[Adnan]

Allisson is a better 'shot-stopper' than DDG too. His style of goalkeeping might not be as flashy as DDG but the number of blocks he makes in one vs one situations by charging out and closing the angle quickly is insane.

Again, people miss this because they see a 'good save' as a save in which a goalkeeper makes a full-length dive and/or flying save. I checked out the xG of the saves DDG made at the weekend and the Zouma header was 0.02 and the Rice shot was 0.02*. In simple terms, those were both difficult chances and unlikely to result in a goal.

Allisson regularly makes less flashy saves but from shots with much higher xG. One-vs-one's, shots from close range, shots from central areas...all saved because he charges at the ball like a man possessed and throws himself at the attacker. DDG would stay on his line, be beaten by the shot and the pundits would say 'nothing the GK would do'. Well there is something he can do...leave his line and affect the situation!

* I understand an 'expected goal' and an 'expected save' are not the same thing....i.e. a long-range shot might have a 0.02xG but it might be powerful and right in the top corner and become a 0.25xS, for example. However....my point is...I'd rather my goalkeeper be good at saving high-xG efforts than making flashy stops from the odd improbable effort

Again....I caveat all of this by saying DDG was, in my opinion, one of the best GKs in the World for a period of time...I feel that hasn't now been the case since Jose's final season

I agree, Allison is comfortably a better keeper at all 4 disciplines and has been crucial in Liverpool winning the league and champions league. And it's no surprise a manager like Luis Enrique who has a proven record of coaching a team to success in the modern era has completely sidelined DdG..

There's much better keepers in the game who enhance the build up play and are naturally more proactive in nature.. Which is very important for a head coach who wants to implement zonal and positional control starting from the defensive third.

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

He must be close to as many clean sheets this season already as he had the whole of last season.

 

[Isotope]

I no longer believe he will even be replaced for a sweeper. His kicking and coming out have jumped massively. That was a blazing quick adaptation. He was an excellent kicker when he first got here but I thought that talent was long gone.

Just make you think, what the feck was the level of coaching in all those 8 years prior?

 

[Reapersoul20]

Well who could argue now you’ve got u/chudlydudly on your side?!

/u/chudlydudly has never steered me wrong on these matters before, that's a fact.

 

[Jeppers7]

He’s turning back the clock this season, quite surprising to be fair, I thought these type of performances were long gone.

 

[RopersReturn]

He’s come to the rescue so many times with a number of acrobatic saves that have ensured victory, in fact he’s been superb lately and long may it continue.

 

[Vault Dweller]

Keep doing DDG things, DDG as well as a tremendous double save the pick out to Bruno for the goal was excellent. Distribution is really so much better.

 

[largelyworried]

He conceded 10 goals in 2 shocking team performances. He's conceded 6 in the other 10. And he's able to pass which was deemed impossible by some.

Yeah this was discussed at length in the previous few pages. Even if you just ignore those two performances he still isn't top 6 for shot stopping.

As for his long passing (like the goal yesterday), that was never the problem. He still isn't very accurate (he ranks 19th in the league) but where he struggled was short and mid range passing under pressure, stopping us from building up play and inviting the press.

Personally I always thought he would be able to improve on that up, to a point. After the Liverpool game (in which I think he didn't make a single short pass) I said we could still build from the back with De Gea. At that point some people were suggesting we give trying entirely and play long. But the guy can obviously kick a football at some level, simply continuing to do it safely would always show some improvement.

One benefit of his better passing is that more fans are realising what an asset it is to have a keeper that can pass. A lot of the arguments around De Gea were saying that a passing goalkeeper didn't matter, all that mattered was shot stopping. Its a bit like saying that passing centre backs don't matter as long as you can tackle, and then you get you a Martinez that can do both, and the penny drops.

There's still a huge difference between what De Gea does on the ball and what keepers like Ter Stegen, Courtois, Neuer, Allison and the rest can do. Watch a lot of Spanish and German football and its eye opening just how much pressure they can take and how accurate their passing can still be, and what that permits the rest of the team to do.

 

[tenpoless]

Need to come out of his box more like this guy

 

[Amar__]

It was a good goal, but I would like to know how many direct free kick goals has he conceeded in the premierleague, if there is somewhere stat like that.

 

[criticalanalysis]

It was a good goal, but I would like to know how many direct free kick goals has he conceeded in the premierleague, if there is somewhere stat like that.

I keep saying it but I think his positioning was off for that free kick..

 

[a_devil_inside]

He does seem to get beat quite easily for freekicks

 

[Desert Eagle]

I thought he could have saved both of the first two. Some people still maintain he's an incredible shotstopper though.

 

[Longshanks]

I thought he could have saved both of the first two. Some people still maintain he's an incredible shotstopper though.

I agree, he didn't seem to have a huge amount of ground to make up for the free kick which is neither high or actually that close to the corner. And the first is a classic De Gea why try and rush the player when you can just stand back and hope he hits it at your feet. For me as soon as bailey gets away from Martinez he should be coming out and closing the angle IMO. He just stands of and allows was bailey to pick his spot.

 

[Telsim]

My MOTM. Garnacho scored the winning goal, but De Gea kept us in long enough for that to matter.

 

[Kag]

My wider views on De Gea are fixed at this point, but he’s really good at the moment. Certainly more proactive, too.

 

[RedOrange]

He is looking more and more comfortable sweeping and distributing as the season goes on. I don't know what the numbers look like but his deficiencies in those areas aren't noticeably hindering the team the way they were at the start of the season.

He was very solid stopping the ball today as well.

 

[Jev]

To think many people on here think our first priority should be to replace this guy. Saving our bottoms week after week.

 

[Stadjer]

Another good game from him. He really isnt a problem that needs to be fixed ASAP like some people here seem to claim. He also seems to be coming off his line a bit more.

 

[Cabin Clown]

Anyone who thinks we should be replacing David is crazy.

 

[Longshanks]

Made some decent saves, nothing that you wouldnt expect him to mind.

But the goal, yet another goal conceded from a ball across the six yard box that could of been stopped by him. Most GK's in the league stop that without a shadow of doubt.

 

[Idxomer]

He's infuriating even when he's having a good game.

There was one ball in the air that he could've easily picked. He stood there watching while Dan James of all players wins a header right in front of him.