[calodo2003]

Which crosses?

In general I'd potentially agree - but I didn't see any crosses yesterday that any keeper, let alone DDG, is coming out and claiming comfortably.

There were a couple of crosses that were headed out by defenders a couple of yards inside the goal box. Not saying he could have cleanly handled the balls for a catch, but he certainly could have punched them away.

It's inside the goal box, especially goal post extended, where he should be dealing with crosses either via catch or punch, most likely the latter.

 

[largelyworried]

Its the eye test. The whole “the stats say this bro” crowd isn’t nearly as cool/smart as it thinks it is. Shock horror to a ton of people who have likely never played a sport in their life, there ARE actually things on a football field that stats won’t show you.

Stats/data has its place. So does just watching someone play with our own eyes still.

Its obvious you don't understand how some of these stats are collected. Many stats affecting a keeper like post-shot xG are collected by teams of people also using the eye test. Except they're not doing them as huge fans with a tonne of bias, they're using a consistent methodology to make like for like comparisons between games, and they're judging every shot that every keeper in the league faces all season. The system has all of the benefits of human appreciation of context, but with a methodology behind it to allow consistency across leagues and over the season. So yes, it is objectively better than your personal opinion.

 

[Smores]

Glad to see he's making some of the idiots in here look like right mugs. They still keep digging as well

 

[sullydnl]

I can't imagine how anyone would boast about this.

 

[NewYorkRed]

Its obvious you don't understand how some of these stats are collected. Many stats affecting a keeper like post-shot xG are collected by teams of people also using the eye test. Except they're not doing them as huge fans with a tonne of bias, they're using a consistent methodology to make like for like comparisons between games, and they're judging every shot that every keeper in the league faces all season. The system has all of the benefits of human appreciation of context, but with a methodology behind it to allow consistency across leagues and over the season. So yes, it is objectively better than your personal opinion.

Yawn. It may be, but it may not. There’s a reason moneyball failed. Stats have their place but so does human judgement (not specifically speaking to mine of course). There is a ton of stuff you have to factor into how you use this data (CL for example, in a knockout format, sample size is a lot smaller so you don’t have to be the best team to win so your underlying xABCD stats don’t matter, I could go on and on). I’ll ask you a question because I legit don’t know, are that Sanchez lad’s stats better than Dave’s this year? My guess is going to be yes since everyone loves him. I have SEEN him play, he has been pretty damned awful in big spots this year. If we had him instead of DDG, we would be in a worse position. Stats also can NOT measure how a keeper from a smaller team would adapt to having to do nothing for large parts of a game and then have to pull out a worldie out of the bag.

I am not anti data but to say that it is the be all and end all is just naive.

 

[sullydnl]

If you've watched De Gea over the last decade you will have seen with your own eyes his struggles under crosses, his lack of sweeping and the fact that he isn't all that great on the ball.

And if you've watched teams like City, Liverpool or indeed ETH's Ajax you'll have seen how central those aspects of their goalkeeper's game are to their team's style of play. They and countless other teams who play in a similar manner point blank wouldn't have been able to play the way they have as successfully as they have if they had a goalkeeper with De Gea's weaknesses. Which is a problem for us if we want to play that way.

Stats just put numbers on those facts, which should be fairly apparent through the eye test alone anyway. Or at least it should be apparent if you have actually comprehended what is occuring on the pitch. It's not about stats versus the eye test when both should be in agreement on this issue. Whichever way you approach it, De Gea has had weaknesses that those top teams don't carry in their goalkeepers.

 

[largelyworried]

Yawn. It may be, but it may not. There’s a reason moneyball failed. Stats have their place but so does human judgement (not specifically speaking to mine of course). There is a ton of stuff you have to factor into how you use this data (CL for example, in a knockout format, sample size is a lot smaller so you don’t have to be the best team to win so your underlying xABCD stats don’t matter, I could go on and on). I’ll ask you a question because I legit don’t know, are that Sanchez lad’s stats better than Dave’s this year? My guess is going to be yes since everyone loves him. I have SEEN him play, he has been pretty damned awful in big spots this year. If we had him instead of DDG, we would be in a worse position. Stats also can NOT measure how a keeper from a smaller team would adapt to having to do nothing for large parts of a game and then have to pull out a worldie out of the bag.

I am not anti data but to say that it is the be all and end all is just naive.

So if you think De Gea is among the better keepers in the league right now, how many of the 120 or so premier league games not featuring United have you watched this season? You know, in order to make that kind of comparison?

 

[KikiDaKats]

I have always said he is overrated and most of his saves are quite routine for most goalies when compared to others out there. Also, I have argued he made our defence nervous since Sir Alex retired but I’m starting to believe it’s always been the defenders that were shaky, eg it wasn’t his fault we looked nervous at the back 1st half yesterday.
He was solid enough playing behind Blind, Smalling and Carrick at some point. Bringing me to how much respect I’ve developed for the lad.
His position has always been under threat but for some reason he tends to win his spot against whoever the challenger somehow and that fighter spirit is invaluable. He is also the only player that has managed to adapt to every single manager we’ve had. Say what you want about his pay which was poor management but his attitude and respect for the club is admirable.

 

[NewYorkRed]

So if you think De Gea is among the better keepers in the league right now, how many of the 120 or so premier league games not featuring United have you watched this season? You know, in order to make that kind of comparison?

You didn’t answer my question, at all

I see what game you’re playing and I refuse to partake. Cya.

 

[largelyworried]

You didn’t answer my question, at all

I see what game you’re playing and I refuse to partake. Cya.

There's no game here, I'm just pointing out the obvious flaw in your argument. If you have no counter point to make, then I guess it was accurate.

 

[NewYorkRed]

There's no game here, I'm just pointing out the obvious flaw in your argument. If you have no counter point to make, then I guess it was accurate.

I pointed out the flaw in yours and asked you a question and brought up a few different points, you refuted none of them and didn’t answer my question as well; instead you answered my question and with an absurd question of your own. There’s a term for what you’re doing here Data Bro, make you can google it.

I’m done wasting my time here.

 

[largelyworried]

I pointed out the flaw in yours and asked you a question and brought up a few different points, you refuted none of them and didn’t answer my question as well; instead you answered my question and with an absurd question of your own. There’s a term for what you’re doing here Data Bro, make you can google it.

I’m done wasting my time here.

Let's tidy that up then. Your counter point was that there are intangibles in football, such as concentration in quiet games or adapting to a big club, and that these aren't captured by stats and can indicate good keepers. This is a simple false dichotomy - the best keepers cope at big clubs/have good concentration and have good underlying stats. One doesn't obviate the need for the other.

Sanchez is ranked 11th for shot stopping, 19th for passing completion, 5th at taking crosses and 20th for coming off his line. So better than Dave at shot stopping and taking crosses, equally as poor at the other things. I have no idea why you mentioned him, but you asked, so there you are.

With that done, if you care to respond to my point, go for it.

 

[Longshanks]

Which crosses?

In general I'd potentially agree - but I didn't see any crosses yesterday that any keeper, let alone DDG, is coming out and claiming comfortably.

The corner that got half cleared from the six yard box in the middle of the goal that led to the Zouma chance would probably be a good one. Very claimable.

 

[Annihilate Now!]

The corner that got half cleared from the six yard box in the middle of the goal that led to the Zouma chance would probably be a good one. Very claimable.

No way, it was on the six yard line and there was a bunch of players in front of him. Incredibly risky to try and claim that.

 

[Foxbatt]

This is crazy. Every keeper has his strength and weakness. DeGea it's the high balls. His strength is stopping those unbelievable shots. He was motm against West Ham and kept us in the game with unbelievable saves and people are talking about if he should have come out for a high ball?
He has saved us many a times. Is he infallible? Of course not. Is he the best? Of course not. But he is better than Sanchez for sure and on form he should have been in the WC squad.

 

[JB7]

This is crazy. Every keeper has his strength and weakness. DeGea it's the high balls. His strength is stopping those unbelievable shots. He was motm against West Ham and kept us in the game with unbelievable saves and people are talking about if he should have come out for a high ball?
He has saved us many a times. Is he infallible? Of course not. Is he the best? Of course not. But he is better than Sanchez for sure and on form he should have been in the WC squad.

The stats would suggest otherwise in fairness, even for Dave's major "strength" of shot stopping.

By the way, you've added an extra s on the end of "save". He made one exceptional save, he also made some other saves you'd expect a PL goalkeeper to make. He played well but let's not overstate the stops. I'm also not going to criticise him for not coming for crosses unlike some, it is clear that we are defending balls into the box differently to previous seasons and that he is not being asked or expected to deal with crosses, particularly on set pieces; everyone appears to know their jobs with balls into the box and it is working. I don't think it is an ideal long-term solution but while we have De Gea in goal it makes sense. Also that may be a factor with the Spanish national side as their three first choice goalkeepers clearly deal with a lot more crosses on average and as such their defence is most likely set up differently - just because a goalkeeper is deemed to be "better", it does not make them a better fit for the team. Just like comfortability on the ball is important for them, which, while he is improving, is still something De Gea is short on comparatively.

It's also a bonus for us that he's not going to the WC as it gives him a free 6 weeks of working with the current coaching set up and hopefully he will continue his improvement in terms of distribution and fitting into the current plan. It was interesting that Ten Hag was talking to him on the pitch after the game yesterday pointing at a couple of opportunities missed by him not distributing the ball quickly enough to wide areas - these are the types of things that 6 weeks of work can make a big difference on.

 

[arnie_ni]

Its the eye test. The whole “the stats say this bro” crowd isn’t nearly as cool/smart as it thinks it is. Shock horror to a ton of people who have likely never played a sport in their life, there ARE actually things on a football field that stats won’t show you.

Stats/data has its place. So does just watching someone play with our own eyes still.

He made an absolute howler or 2 in those first two games. I'd be interested to see those save stats since because I can't recall any chance since were I thought he should save that.

 

[largelyworried]

He made an absolute howler or 2 in those first two games. I'd be interested to see those save stats since because I can't recall any chance since were I thought he should save that.

His game by game stats are here. All PL keepers combined are here. For shot stopping, PSxG is essentially what on average goalkeeper would expect to concede. You can then compare that to the actual goals conceded to see what his overall performance was.

I think its important to remember that a keeper can let a goal in that another keeper might have saved, without it being a mistake. A good example would be the goal Iwobi scored. I think that was saveable, but it wasn't a mistake by the keeper. Most goals sort of sit in this space. They're not howlers by the keeper, and they're not unsaveable worldies.

 

[Alemar]

His game by game stats are here. All PL keepers combined are here.

It includes Brentford and Man City matches, though. 10 out of 16 goals conceded. Subtract them, and you have an entirely different set of performance stats

 

[largelyworried]

It includes Brentford and Man City matches, though. 10 out of 16 goals conceded. Subtract them, and you have an entirely different set of performance stats

I see what you're saying in that they both stand out as being much worse than usual. Equally, if you disregard the worst two performances by any keeper in the league their stats will look a lot better. Im not sure what the rationale for only applying this to De Gea would be.

 

[Sparky_Hughes]

I have to say, the willingness he has shown in working on his flaws, and making excellent progress makes me think really highly of him. It not only shows a great attitude but a desire as well.

 

[Annihilate Now!]

I see what you're saying in that they both stand out as being much worse than usual. Equally, if you disregard the worst two performances by any keeper in the league their stats will look a lot better. Im not sure what the rationale for only applying this to De Gea would be.

I guess that even if you subtracted every keepers two worst games, De Gea's stats would still compare very favourably.

 

[Alemar]

I see what you're saying in that they both stand out as being much worse than usual. Equally, if you disregard the worst two performances by any keeper in the league their stats will look a lot better. Im not sure what the rationale for only applying this to De Gea would be.

Well, Brentford was an absolute shit show, de Dea’s worst career performance and a match, after which ETH transformation really started. And City game… nothing was really saveable there, as Haaland et al just destroyed our defence completely. It’s not representative of de Gea form in the slightest, so for the purposes of Gk performance it’s rather be subtracted - otherwise you just double the amount of goals conceded.

Apart from 2 aforementioned games, de Gea played 15 more games this season, having managed 8 clean sheets, and only once conceding more than 1 goal (first game of the season, with Maguire and generally poor team mentality).

Without those 2 games, de Gea is so far averaging 0.5 clean sheets per game and 0.5 goals conceded per game - while also improving his distribution

 

[largelyworried]

I guess that even if you subtracted every keepers two worst games, De Gea's stats would still compare very favourably.

That was an interesting one, well thought of. So it turns out that if you knock off the two worst games from all keepers in the league, the worst keepers benefit the most. Which makes sense once you think about. If you look at Mark Travers for example, he had a whopping -5.1 PSxg-GA playing for Bournemouth in the 9-0 against Liverpool. Obviously, if you take that away, his overall stats improve a lot.

The top 6 keepers in the league (ie the only ones with positive PSxG-GA) all stay in the top 6, in mostly the same order. However further down the rankings, some players start to jump around.

What it seems is that there are two types of keepers in the middle of the pack. Some who are consistently bang average, like Leno, and some who are boom or bust, like Henderson.

Henderson has managed the 2nd and 6th best goalkeeping performances this season. He's also managed the 6th, 9th, 10th and 11th worst performances of the season. (A quick glance at the Henderson thread kind of backs this up - people alternating between praise and derision)

De Gea's performance against City is actually the 2nd worst out of all 290 odd performances this season. The performance against Brentford was the 12th worst. Fun fact - Henderson and De Gea make up 6 of the 12 worst goalkeeping performances in the league all season. Lucky us! De Gea hasn't had the same standout performances as Henderson, but has about 5 in the top 20%. This speaks to the inconsistency.

So just based on PSxG-GA, De Gea is ranked 16th. Take those two worst performances away and he jumps up to 7th. That's the biggest change of any keeper. The keeper who jumps up the second most is...Henderson. (I feel like those two are tied by threads of fate).

tldr - yes De Geas stats do look a lot better if you ignore the two worst performances, but the fact they change so much is a sign of a problem. Good keepers are consistently good, and their stats don't change much when you knock off a couple of games.

 

[Longshanks]

It includes Brentford and Man City matches, though. 10 out of 16 goals conceded. Subtract them, and you have an entirely different set of performance stats

So you want to take his two worst performances of the season so far out of the equation? Essentially making the stat compleatly and utterly pointless?

De Gea Fanboys are possibly the worst.

 

[NewYorkRed]

So you want to take his two worst performances of the season so far out of the equation? Essentially making the stat compleatly and utterly pointless?

De Gea Fanboys are possibly the worst.

What is this obsession with calling people who support our players fanboys? It doesn’t make sense to me. Since when is getting behind and supporting ManUtd players who have been largely immense for the club a bad thing? Ronaldo I still understand has his “own” fans if that make sense but there is nothing of the sort with DDG. I think part of being a fan is getting behind a player even if he’s not perfect and backing him instead of constantly trashing them on social media/fan forums.

PS not just directed at you alone, I’ve seen a ton of this from multiple people and am genuinely perplexed by all it.

 

[AdNani]

If people can't see a massive improvement in his distribution then i don't know what they're watching.

 

[Alemar]

If people can't see a massive improvement in his distribution then i don't know what they're watching.

- Massive improvement in distribution
- Visible improvement in sweeping

 

[Oranges038]

I honestly don’t care about the stats here, my eyes tell me he’s still great, we had this exact same argument over the summer too. You kept saying how he made the defenders infront of him worse, I told you it was the opposite and we’re already seeing that.

Is he perfect? Not be any means. Is it a massive, massive risk to replace him? Absolutely. GK is one of the hardest positions to fill, there is literally no guarantee that the next guy will just be an instant success. Dave is still an outstanding goalie and like I said in the summer, he’ll be here for a longggg time still.

Edit: yeah I went back and saw our posts on DDG from last season… I’m pretty ok with not taking anything you say about him seriously at all

Hasn't been great for a long time.

What you are seeing is two fold. The defence is playing better as a unit. Part of that seems due to DDG playing higher and pushing the defence higher. I can't find the stats to see if it is, but it looks like the defence is pushing higher more often.

So, it's not just that he has better players in front of him, he's also playing the way I said he wasn't playing and should have been playing. That is making a masisve difference to the players in front of him.

If he had stuck to playing the way he was the defence would look like it did against Brentford and Brigthon which was the same as last season. And look what happened in those games.

 

[NoPace]

He's playing much better, but he'll have to take a massive pay cut to stay, I think.

If it's true he's on 20M a year and wants say 15M a year with no bonus, we could replace him with a better sweeper and passing keeper for a 28M transfer fee and 8M in wages and come out even over 4 years. Maignan cost 15M so it should be possible to find a very good "modern" keeper for 30M who is 25 or 26.

 

[AdNani]

- Massive improvement in distribution
- Visible improvement in sweeping

Yeah pretty clear in both, If he keeps it up, along with his shot stopping ability. Id be happy to keep him.

He'd have to take a pay cut though

 

[Foxbatt]

What a lot of nonsense being spouted here. Do some people think that DeGea is playing the way he plays now just because he feels like he wants to play like that? Just because he feels like now I am not going to stand back but I am going to push myself outside of the box and going to play sweeper. That's not how it works. It works according to the tactics and the way the manager wants to play.

 

[Giggsy13]

We have a world class keeper already. Use the funds to get a centre forward, RB and more cover at CB and midfield and we should be set.

 

[UNITED ACADEMY]

He has shown some improvement on his ball playing in the recent matches. But it is bit too early, so I will wait until February to see if my view on DDG has changed or no.

 

[BEST No7]

Big Dave has been faultless, and improved were some say he can't. Not a priority, infact getting rid would be stupid

 

[Stobzilla]

Big Dave has been faultless, and improved were some say he can't. Not a priority, infact getting rid would be stupid

Since the first two games of the season, where he was atrocious.

 

[utdalltheway]

He’ll get a nice rest during the WC and come back even better than he already is.

 

[izak]

He has shown some improvement on his ball playing in the recent matches. But it is bit too early, so I will wait until February to see if my view on DDG has changed or no.

I am predicting he would only get better, no world cup for him so a lot more time to work with ETH and his coaching staff.

 

[arnie_ni]

Hasn't been great for a long time.

What you are seeing is two fold. The defence is playing better as a unit. Part of that seems due to DDG playing higher and pushing the defence higher. I can't find the stats to see if it is, but it looks like the defence is pushing higher more often.

So, it's not just that he has better players in front of him, he's also playing the way I said he wasn't playing and should have been playing. That is making a masisve difference to the players in front of him.

If he had stuck to playing the way he was the defence would look like it did against Brentford and Brigthon which was the same as last season. And look what happened in those games.

The defense is playing higher because Harry maguire isn't in it. Look how many times they almost got in behind at the weekend with maguire back in.

 

[Desert Eagle]

If he's willing to halve his salary then we can talk about a renewal. Anything over 200k is unacceptable to be paying a goalkeeper unless he's legit best in the world.