Hasn't she gone yet.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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I think even the Tories would struggle to spin their way out of the chaos of a no deal brexit.
The EU have negotiated, we have a deal. It's us, rejecting it. I just can't see how a government survives the chaos. The government can bluster as much as they want, we are already too late to start getting ready for No deal.
Not sure. EU citizens get 'visa free travel' to Canada but I'd err on the side of no. There are some special arrangements for investors but that's it.
Smart move by Gove. There is zero possibility of her losing a confidence vote at this stage.
As stupid idle threat is all it was, and she then undermined it yesterday in her press conference q and a by saying we would leave the EU march next year when questioned about the very wording of her Thursday statement.
I'd love to see this undone, but she is adamant about leaving, she's just massively rubbish at posturing for effect.
My understanding is this
If the Bill is defeated then yes labour can call a motion of no confidence
(I am not clear though if May allows a free vote on the deal and its voted down then Im not sure that counts as a government defeat?)
If they are successful in the no confidence motion then there is a 14 day period in which the conservatives can try to form a new government (eg a deal with the libs - a new supply and confidence deal with the DUP for example - perhaps based on a change of leadership)
If at the end of those 14 days they cant command a majority then yes at that point we get an election
but to my mind the free vote might be a way out of that process starting
and even if it happens they have 2 weeks to strike a deal (which if they say right now its no deal and may will go I think the DUP would probably get back on board)
So the odds of an election Id say are still pretty slim
I think logically going with a free vote is politically the inteligent move - if labour dont correspond they are painted as playing party politics - if its a free vote then her best chance of getting it through is labour votes rather than hardline conservative
overall it probably still fails to pass but as I say it could be painted as not a government defeat (not sure aboyt the legalities of that) - and it might avoid the confidence vote in the commons ...
Ok, so how to reconcile that then with NI? Any arrangement is likely to enrage either Brexiteers, DUP (who represent the opposite of what NI actually voted for) or remainers. How do you reconcile those who want nothing to do with the EU anymore with the thousands of people who cross the border to work every day currently? Border in the sea? DUP collapse the government. Border on the land? An international peace treaty is violated.
I wasn't being entirely serious although I'd be quite happy for the EU to adopt the role of a nation with countries adopting more of a state role - more like the Australian model than the US one.
I think there is a bi latteral agreement between Iraland and the UK that superceeds that - so basically we keep free movement with Ireland based on a bi latteral treaty but not with the EU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area
common travel area since 1922
presumably its the irish responsibility to stop no uk / irish people going to UK (and the same on the UK to stop people going to ireland - Im not sure how this happens without boarder checks - I think nobody thought it would actually come to this)
This is part of the solution. I think the idea that there can't be a special arrangement for Ireland and NI is a ridiculous lack of imagination. If preventing violence really is that high a priority for the EU, they can afford to talk in good faith.
some truth in this
As I said before, I'm all ears. It's not just Ireland and NI, by the way - we're on the EU team and NI is on the UK team.
Well there's legalities and then the convention, i can't see how they can avoid the convention of passing to a no confidence vote over such a critical matter by using the PR spin of a free vote.
This whole thing is going to cause such public anger if they worm their way out of it.
She's just a Tory.
Ding ding ding.
So there are still some people who thought that we would be getting a better deal from the collective member states than those member states themselves?
This is why I have absolutely no time for the "don't call them stupid" narrative. People need to stop trying to be virtuously reasonable in matters like this and call it as it is. "It's not their fault they were ignorant or mislead or xenophobic or insert excuse here".
The "best deal" is a bad deal and a worse deal than we already have/had and then levels of even worse deals on that spectrum. There is no argument aside from those who will say "not all leavers are x,y,z". Which is entirely irrelevant in the end because all leavers are leavers and they chose to be leavers for any number of reasons ranging from the incorrect to the foolish.
But no let us focus on making sure we have a "nice discussion" because that is what matters most here.
This is why I have absolutely no time for the "don't call them stupid" narrative. People need to stop trying to be virtuously reasonable in matters like this and call it as it is. "It's not their fault they were ignorant or mislead or xenophobic or insert excuse here".
The "best deal" is a bad deal and a worse deal than we already have/had and then levels of even worse deals on that spectrum. There is no argument aside from those who will say "not all leavers are x,y,z". Which is entirely irrelevant in the end because all leavers are leavers and they chose to be leavers for any number of reasons ranging from the incorrect to the foolish.
But no let us focus on making sure we have a "nice discussion" because that is what matters most here.
Would you trust the people who voted us into this mess to vote in a general election? Just think the country is now going to stumble from one disaster to another.
Melvyn Bragg in fine form.
There's a certain irony in thinking you can change minds by saying 'you're stupid'.
yes, that was also because of EU disagreements within the party
Agreed. This is the government's principal piece of legislation, essentially its entire raison d'être; if she fails to get it through the commons (which is obviously now inevitable), she can't possibly survive.
May will go, then it will be a no deal Brexit, with one of the wankers who got us into this mess, at the helm.
Did you vote Brexit by any chance?
This this...this. The only way to counter this problem is educate educate...educate .
It's depressing hearing Labour MPs talking about ending FoM like it's the best all and end all. Why admit to a problem when there isn't one just because you want to lander to ignorant people.
Half the people who bleat on about immigration come from places where there are no migrants. We need to contact front this ignorance. It's getting us nowhere.
Womp womp.
Even though it makes his department just a big waste of money.
Jacob Rees Mogg can't even organise a coup properly.
Yes.
Shock horror! The no deal talk was a bluff. The problem is the only people who believed it are the ERG.
No deal and we're fecked.
What would happen if there is no deal? Should I say what is the worst that could happen, or is even the best that could happen the worst?
Good luck changing people's minds like that. I'm sure some just don't care what happens to the country but 17m people, some will have believed what they were told. An get should be directed at those who misled people, not those who fell for a con.
So, when's the re-vote since you all fecked up the first one? 
I saw one of the top comments earlier on the Mail - saying that they'd rather be free even if it means we're poor.
Really??
Bloody hell! Things weren't that bad for goodness sake. It bit irritating at times, but that was it. What is wrong with these people?