Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
jackofalltrades said:
Should the UK refuse to pay up, what could the EU do ? Presumably they would look for arbitration but could they impose a veto/boycott/ban on imports from the UK, which would I imagine lead to the danger of an all out trade war ?
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A trade war which the EU would comfortably win. There's little doubt that the EU will suffer if the UK falls out onto WTO rules without an agreement, but the point is that the UK will suffer a great deal more. I believe people in recent weeks have somewhat underestimated the incentive that exists to make leaving the institution as painful and unenviable as possible and the role that will play in the coming months.

On the divorce bill itself, it wouldn't surprise me if Davis' loose lips leads to an insistence that it's paid for in its entirety before anything is concluded, dashing the sweetener to the back-benchers that it may well be incremental payments over a number of years. Indeed I wouldn't be terribly shocked if the EU now successfully pin down the government to such a pledge before even initiating 'phase 2' talks.
 
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jackofalltrades said:
Should the UK refuse to pay up, what could the EU do ? Presumably they would look for arbitration but could they impose a veto/boycott/ban on imports from the UK, which would I imagine lead to the danger of an all out trade war ?
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The UK will be paying the bulk of the brexit bill within the proposed transitional period, both because that will help placate the uk voters that they are paying for something tangible, and because that's what a lot of the brexit bill is for anyway (EU membership).

The answer, therefore, is self contained. If we came to agreements with the EU, then refused to pay, they'd potentially void the transitional agreement, and the future deep and comprehensive free trade agreements.

There is however, another word for countries that refuse to pay their debts; defaulting. Argentina recently wanted to selectively repay it's debts and were placed a restricted default category.

Subsequently, though Argentina wanted to repay some creditors, the judgment prevented Argentina from doing so, because being forced to repay all creditors, including the holdouts, would have totaled around $100 billion. The country was therefore categorized as being in selective default by Standard & Poor's and in restricted default by Fitch.[9][10]The ruling affected New York law Argentine bonds; Argentine bonds issued under Buenos Aires and European law were not affected.[11][12]

Proposed solutions include seeking waivers of the RUFO clause from bondholders, or waiting for the RUFO clause to expire at the end of 2014.[8] The dilemma raised concerns internationally about the ability of a small minority to forestall an otherwise-agreed debt restructuring of an insolvent country,[8] and the ruling that led to it was widely criticized both within the United States and internationally. Although the media widely reported that the default ended with payments to the principal bondholders in early 2016, during the presidency of Mauricio Macri, several hundred million dollars in outstanding defaulted bonds remained unpaid, which resulted in continuation of litigation. In November 2016 Argentina announced that it had settled with additional creditors for US$475 million. [13]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring#Argentina_2014_"selective_default"
 
rcoobc said:
The UK will be paying the bulk of the brexit bill within the proposed transitional period, both because that will help placate the uk voters that they are paying for something tangible, and because that's what a lot of the brexit bill is for anyway (EU membership).

The answer, therefore, is self contained. If we came to agreements with the EU, then refused to pay, they'd potentially void the transitional agreement, and the future deep and comprehensive free trade agreements.

There is however, another word for countries that refuse to pay their debts; defaulting. Argentina recently wanted to selectively repay it's debts and were placed a restricted default category.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring#Argentina_2014_"selective_default"
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I dont think the comparison with Argentina is particularly helpful. Defaulting on government debt is quite different to not making budget contributions.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
I dont think the comparison with Argentina is particularly helpful. Defaulting on government debt is quite different to not making budget contributions.
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You are probably right. Then we are back to the first option. Legal consequences and being eventually ejected from the transitional agreement and any future trade deal.
 
Rightnr said:
I like the fact the EU are showing up Davis for the idiot that he is. You cannot just go off spouting like that when the situation is so finely poised.

I find it rather ironic how British people think the whole world should speak English but don't realise that also means nothing you say goes unnoticed abroad.

Davis would have been sacked in any other job by now or in any other UK parliament.
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At this stage I would not trust David Davis to run a whist drive at the British Legion never mind a position within government.

He'd probably invite Gerry Adams and a retired Argentine General, forget the cards and spend the night trying to pull the barmaid by telling her about his departmental Jaguar, not noticing it had been set on fire by local kids.
 
If the UK fails to pay its dues after agreeing to it then it won't get a transition period nor a trade deal with the EU. The EU will probably use its power within the WTO to make it hard for the UK to get a WTO deal as well.
 
Can't believe some of these Labour idiots voted with the Tories. Especially Frank Field who always seems on his high moral horse. I thought Brexit was to bring back control yet these nincompoops are voting against Parliament's right to be sovereign.
 
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Oscie said:
A trade war which the EU would comfortably win. There's little doubt that the EU will suffer if the UK falls out onto WTO rules without an agreement, but the point is that the UK will suffer a great deal more. I believe people in recent weeks have somewhat underestimated the incentive that exists to make leaving the institution as painful and unenviable as possible and the role that will play in the coming months.

On the divorce bill itself, it wouldn't surprise me if Davis' loose lips leads to an insistence that it's paid for in its entirety before anything is concluded, dashing the sweetener to the back-benchers that it may well be incremental payments over a number of years. Indeed I wouldn't be terribly shocked if the EU now successfully pin down the government to such a pledge before even initiating 'phase 2' talks.
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Seems that the EU will make any payment deal binding before trade talks can begin. Davis said it's not necessary to be clever to do his job. He's a perfect fit then, isn't he ?
 
Rightnr said:
Can't believe some of these Labour idiots voted with the Tories. Especially Frank Field who always seems on his high moral horse. I thought Brexit was to bring back control yet these nincompoops are voting against Parliamnent's right to be sovereign.
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Is this a troll account?
 
Rightnr said:
Can't believe some of these Labour idiots voted with the Tories. Especially Frank Field who always seems on his high moral horse. I thought Brexit was to bring back control yet these nincompoops are voting against Parliament's right to be sovereign.
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Because they are well Brexit.
 
Don't know enough about Field but Hoey comes across as someone who'd be better suited to UKIP than Labour with her views.
 
The Outsider said:
6 of the Tory rebels went against their constituencies, I suspect very unwise.
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Bit unexpected sure. Nothing unwise about it necessarily (assume they don’t want to be MPs just for the sake of it). People are stupid - we send them there to think for us.
 
buchansleftleg said:
Singling out MP's for scorn, when you know you have a lot of "Britain first" readers, one of whom has actually already killed an MP - Shameful headline from the Daily Mail - one to rank alongside their support for Blackshirts in the 30's

A new low, whatever your politics!
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They know what their 'journalism' does to some of their readers.
 
Dobba said:
They know what their 'journalism' does to some of their readers.
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Daily Mail and BBC comments honestly make me hope there’s Russian bots spamming comments because otherwise I’m a bit scared for this country. Some vile, moronic people out there.
 
Any vote that parliament has after October 2018 on the Exit deal of the UK will only be a yes or no vote, it can't be a vote of we don't like this bit or we don't like that bit, go back and try again. There will be no trade agreement, only a possible transition period and a framework of how the future relationship will look.

What the UK parliament needs is a say on the progress of the negotiations before the deal is agreed, not afterwards.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Any vote that parliament has after October 2018 on the Exit deal of the UK will only be a yes or no vote, it can't be a vote of we don't like this bit or we don't like that bit, go back and try again.
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If parliament wants to it will. That's the point of last night's vote; to ensure a meaningful, statutory vote which Parliament can amend as it chooses, including rejecting a deal and telling govt to go back to negotiating table.
 
Oscie said:
If parliament wants to it will. That's the point of last night's vote; to ensure a meaningful, statutory vote which Parliament can amend as it chooses, including rejecting a deal and telling govt to go back to negotiating table.
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The deal has to be agreed by the end of October 2018 and then is put to the 27 other parliaments and to the UK parliament if they are allowed. If the UK parliament say go back and try again it's a hard brexit. The point of last nights vote is that it's pointless as is next week's vote about the date.
More smoke and mirrors.

Imagine if each of the 27 other parliaments objected to one part. It has to be agreed in the timeframe.
 
Have a smile for Ken Clarke, he's hung on long enough
Paul the Wolf said:
The deal has to be agreed by the end of October 2018 and then is put to the 27 other parliaments and to the UK parliament if they are allowed. If the UK parliament say go back and try again it's a hard brexit. The point of last nights vote is that it's pointless as is next week's vote about the date.
More smoke and mirrors.

Imagine if each of the 27 other parliaments objected to one part. It has to be agreed in the timeframe.
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The UK parliament simply can not tell the EU to re-negotiate, I've no idea why so many people think they can. So I agree with you, except for the timeframe, which could be altered if both sides thought it worthwhile.
 
712 said:
Have a smile for Ken Clarke, he's hung on long enough

The UK parliament simply can not tell the EU to re-negotiate, I've no idea why so many people think they can. So I agree with you, except for the timeframe, which could be altered if both sides thought it worthwhile.
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He must be coming up to 50 years as an MP.

I don't see how the timeframe can be altered much either, the EU elections are in May 2019 so with lead time the UK have to have gone by April at the latest (or stay if Brexit is cancelled completely) which means the last meaningful vote other than yes or no would be November 2018 and even then it would be minor changes at best.
 
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