Looks like we are quitting the single market.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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All this over an illusion that, immigration is running the country into the ground.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...proach-is-not-muddled-at-all-says-theresa-may
So it's not muddled - people are expecting that the UK can select bits of the EU, she says, no we're leaving (but we still want the trade deals).
You cannot discuss trade deals until you've left, my dear and we know what the cost of the single market is. You got one thing right, there was no plan, as we all knew.
She looks totally unconvinced that she knows what she's doing. Now it's her plan...
So it's not muddled - people are expecting that the UK can select bits of the EU, she says, no we're leaving (but we still want the trade deals).
You cannot discuss trade deals until you've left, my dear and we know what the cost of the single market is. You got one thing right, there was no plan, as we all knew.
She looks totally unconvinced that she knows what she's doing. Now it's her plan...
Captain Obvious says hello.
UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show
UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...e-for-further-brexit-price-rises-surveys-show
She does not have a choice. The EU doesn't seem keen to any cherry picking.
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The only alternative to that was an EEA membership
Or a bespoke deal...
I suspect this is most likely but probably a pretty shitty deal all round probably some consessions for eu skilled migration (especially NHS and infra construction) for some limited service market access (plus probably a fairly large fee)
Did anyone see the report that, Theresa May plans to contest the next GE on the UK quitting the European Convention on Human Rights?
I find that very very unlikely. A mixed trade deal takes too much time to negotiate with every country or region having to agree with it. Most European countries have alot on their plate at the moment including GE in key countries, Putin and Trump to worry about Brexit.
The proposition of allowing the UK to leave the EU without a deal only to suffer from the consequences of not having any trade deals in place is quite tempting. The UK economy will suffer, businesses might move to the continent, Scotland, Northern Ireland and co might threaten to leave and the UK will have to negotiate from a weaker position to what they are is now. There's also the incentive that a disastrious Brexit might see the Tory party ending greatly weakened or even losing the next GE. I strongly believe that most EU negotiators will just love to negotiate with other people rather then Davis, Fox and Boris
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It's an absolute fetish of hers.
The problem is it should be a death sentence for her, but the right wing press will whip up a jingoistic storm about how we don't like none of those foreigners (conveniently forgetting our role in it) writing down our rights and stuff and it will be popular as feck.
Its said that a country gets the government it deserves, and if the country wants a police state run by the Führerin then good on them. But I know I won't stick around to see it.
The pound is holding up nicely this morning
Where you gonna go?
Potentially... it will be one of the strangest trade negotiations as typically it's about taking barriers away and achieving harmonisation of standards... here we have harmonised standards and no barriers to start with so as I say it's a different thing... it should in theory be simpler though the flip side it will almost certainly be more confrontational as it will be imposing not removing barriers.
I personally doubt a good deal will be negotiated on the time frame but I think some fudge will go through...
I mean plenty of European companies want access to the capital markets of London tarriff free and just like getting a good trade deal will take years the practicalities of putting a financial services infrastructure in place beyond simple passporting will also take years.
As I say some fudge... not a good deal for any party and probably a lot of bad feeling / blame
I am no expert so I really don’t know what’s going to happen. However I did work in politics, I have friends who work in Brussels and that include MEPs. I find it very hard to believe that all EU countries + regions will be able to formulate a deal, in 2 years, while there’s so many general elections going on. Canada wasn’t able to do so and it’s a country whom everybody loves in Europe and who had never insulted anybody.
The signs don’t look great either. May mentioned the word ‘cannot’ which, in my opinion, is quite revealing. Also there’s plenty of signs that the EU are closing the ranks against the Brexiters. UK allies like Ireland, Denmark and Malta remain silent. Many countries had sent envoys in London to try to lure business back home and Beppe Grillo whose quite a dunce is cutting ties with Ukip. As said I am no expert and while I did work in politics, I hated it and it was quite a minor role (although I did work very close to a minister). However from my limited experience I can assure you that those aren’t encouraging signs.
I can see the EU offering a way out to the UK. They can’t just slam the door or else they will look bad. However I believe that it would be nothing more than a membership to the EEA with maybe some cosmetic changes which were also offered to Cameron. The UK will of course refuse and the two unions will part ways ‘amicable’ with the promise that new negotiations will set place once the UK is out of the EU. In reality both will be hoping that the other one will burn to the ground which will make it easier for them to get a better deal.
Not if she says that she doesn't want freedom of movement, as seems clear, therefore no single market.
As the Uk is part of the EU until they leave, they cannot negotiate a deal with the EU as in effect they would be negotiating with themselves. As they are part of the EU they'll have to go under WTO as a separate nation so again after they leave or be part of the EEA which they'll have to do after they leave.
What about Passport rights for banking, presume they don't want that either
As the EU said, the negotiations are purely about the divorce of the Uk from the EU, not about trade deals. Thus the talks will be quite short.
Basically just 2 items on the agenda:
1. What happens to the EU citizens living and working in the UK and vice versa
2. When will the Uk pay the EU what they owe them
Pounds dropping again as off to Limboland they go.
Seems parliament is the only hope.
Basically the Cake and Eat It Plan.
Expecting a few announcements from the financial institutions over the coming weeks.
If May accepted the EEA option then the UK will implode, Ukip will get ridiculously strong and she will be out of her job. I think its pretty obvious by now that national interest is waaaayyy down in the Tory Party agenda.
Seems the national interest seems way down on every politician's agenda
Would they...
Eea seems a pretty good option
I would have thought the 48% who voted remain would feel ok about that
A good chunk of those that didn't vote
And even those who voted to leave on the repeated promise that leaving the eu didn't mean leaving the single market
Full deal in 2 years I agree is very unlikely... a transition agreement on key industries (finance, car manufacturers, food, immigration etc) I could see that with non agreed items going to wto rules whilst the rest of a deal completed over several tranches.
That would seem in the interest of both sides and even though it would be tough it's far more realistic than a full deal...
Though who knows right at the end of the article 50 process we might say f you all we are staying and blocking all legislation till you give us a deal... hopefully not but it's in nobody's interest for it to become too acrimonious though some conflict is inevitable I thnk
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/09/brexit-may-single-market-scotland-fears
Thought there was an odd comment in the article:
British exporters would face having tariffs worth £5bn imposed on their goods, Civitas said. But it said the government would raise £13bn from tariffs on imports which could fund an industrial strategy that would boost the manufacturing sector.
So British goods will be more expensive, yes apart from the reduction because of drop of sterling.
But the £13bn that would boost the manufacturing sector also does not take into account the exchange rate thus more than that but more importantly who pays the £13bn - the importers and thus the consumers.
Thought there was an odd comment in the article:
British exporters would face having tariffs worth £5bn imposed on their goods, Civitas said. But it said the government would raise £13bn from tariffs on imports which could fund an industrial strategy that would boost the manufacturing sector.
So British goods will be more expensive, yes apart from the reduction because of drop of sterling.
But the £13bn that would boost the manufacturing sector also does not take into account the exchange rate thus more than that but more importantly who pays the £13bn - the importers and thus the consumers.
This is a pretty correct how we, mainlanders, see this whole situation I guess. Found it rather funny. Asked my colleagues if they knew the difference between the UK and GB, none of them knew. The Olympics, football points have puzzled me too in the past.
I think it is and the EU won't be offering a stupid deal either. They don't want the whole world to think that the EU is a place were no one can get a good deal from especially after the horrible Canada deal PR.
Having said that I can see the UK refusing it and that's exactly what the EU will be banking on as they want the UK to leave and re-negotiate from a weaker position. Control over freedom of movement is of paramount importance to the UK and if they refuse a deal with Europe because of it, then it will be the UK who will look as the villain in the story not the EU.
That's true. Hence why this 'politicians won't dare risking recession by kicking the UK out without a deal' idea is stupid. Brexit gave the EU leaders a reason why the voters stick to the EU (ie if Brexit prove disastrous) and a culprit if their own economy goes tits up.
I'm not sure about this alternative. I take it from various articles (Guardian, Independent and others) that at least four individuals have filed law suits to seek clarification if the UK were to become automatically an EEA member if they drop out of the EU without a deal in place. They are convinced that this is the case and a separate resignation (which is 12 months) to leave the EEA is necessary.
OTOH, EEA rules forsee that any new member must be approved also by current EEA members (Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein). Some Norwegian politicians have already expressed they don't want the UK to become a EEA member. The situation is legally and politically very unclear.
Also, with respect to a WTO deal, to my knowledge WTO tarrifs do not apply automatically if there's no deal in place after end of March 2019. The UK and the UK must still 'approve' that WTO tariffs will apply. Theoretically, one or both parties can still oppose.
I doubt it.
As a EEA member, you pay into the EU budget; for the UK, the Cameron government calculated that to be around 70-80% of what the UK currently pay (in summer, I linked to the report in this thread).
More importantly, freedom of movement is the very same as for EEA as for EU members. Also importantly, >50% of EU regulations and directives of the EU must still be implemented in national legislation - but contrary to being a EU member, you are nowhere represented around the negotiating table and have no vote, neither in the EU concil nor in EU parliament. You can lobby for your interests, but that's it.
The EU can't afford to let the UK leave empty handed without offering some sort of deal. Else they will look like a vindictive group who wants to punish the UK which would make it look bad with both the business and the politician's community. I think that an EEA will be the deal they will offer. The UK will find it difficult to refuse that and then ask for an alternative as the only reason to say no will be freedom of movement, which, lets face it, does sound a bit of a xenophobic argument.
Therefore a hard Brexit will occur with the EU coming out looking like the ones who tried to accomodate the British (+ the business community) and were actually turned down by the Tory government whose too fixated in stripping the rights of EU workers to negotiate anything sensible. Its naive to think that further negotiations won't occur but it would be with the UK being outside the EU, with the former in a much weaker position (no trade deals in place, still negotiating with the WTO etc) and with the business community (+ probably Scotland and Northern Ireland) furious with them.
Yeah, I can only see us heading for hard brexit now. I suspect the EU will ask for more than this anyway, otherwise they would be allowing us to bypass free movement with no signifcant extra cost.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-may-media-is-misrepresenting-my-brexit-views
Theresa May has suggested the media are responsible for a slump in the value of the pound by wrongly claiming her views about Britain leaving the EU equate to a hard Brexit.
The prime minister was responding to a question about the negative market reaction to her comments on Sunday when she hinted that the UK would not be able to remain a full member of the European single market, but would instead have to negotiate a new trade deal.
Asked if the markets were getting her vision of Brexit wrong, or if she was getting it wrong, May replied: “I am tempted to say that the people who are getting it wrong are those who print things saying I’m talking about a hard Brexit, it is absolutely inevitable it is a hard Brexit. I don’t accept the terms soft and hard Brexit,” she said.
“What we are doing is going to get an ambitious, good and best possible deal for the United Kingdom in terms of trading with and operating within the European single market.”
May stressed it would have to be a “new relationship” because Britain would no longer be a member of the EU.
“We will be outside the European Union and therefore we will be negotiating a new relationship across not just trading but other areas with the European Union.”
I'd plump for this one
Theresa May has suggested the media are responsible for a slump in the value of the pound by wrongly claiming her views about Britain leaving the EU equate to a hard Brexit.
The prime minister was responding to a question about the negative market reaction to her comments on Sunday when she hinted that the UK would not be able to remain a full member of the European single market, but would instead have to negotiate a new trade deal.
Asked if the markets were getting her vision of Brexit wrong, or if she was getting it wrong, May replied: “I am tempted to say that the people who are getting it wrong are those who print things saying I’m talking about a hard Brexit, it is absolutely inevitable it is a hard Brexit. I don’t accept the terms soft and hard Brexit,” she said.
“What we are doing is going to get an ambitious, good and best possible deal for the United Kingdom in terms of trading with and operating within the European single market.”
May stressed it would have to be a “new relationship” because Britain would no longer be a member of the EU.
“We will be outside the European Union and therefore we will be negotiating a new relationship across not just trading but other areas with the European Union.”
I'd plump for this one
I would love to have a new 'relationship' with Emilia Clarke and Nathalie Dormer then that of just a fan but it ain't gonna happen. I hope the PM know what she's doing because if she doesn't than the UK will be in big trouble.
With Davis and Boris giving her advice as well - looks pretty safe to assume, she doesn't know what she's doing
I can't understand why she's blaming the media now. She said that the UK is leaving the EU, that it will have complete control over immigration etc. That is hard brexit. The rest is wishful thinking, something the UK have no control
It's the Cake and Eat It Plan. Seems to think she's going to remain in the single market and stop immigration from the EU as per her "new relationship". Oh well.
Seems the markets probably think she doesn't know what she's doing either, every time she opens her mouth , the pound drops.
Pound at lowest against USD $1.216 , lowest since referendum and just dipped under €1.15 - lowest since 10 November
Pound at lowest against USD $1.216 , lowest since referendum and just dipped under €1.15 - lowest since 10 November
Angela Merkel vows to block full single market access without free movement after Theresa May interview
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...arket-free-movement-theresa-may-a7517951.html
Brexit: UK will be 'front of line' for US trade deal, Donald Trump's team reassures Boris Johnson
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hnson-reassurance-front-of-line-a7518131.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hnson-reassurance-front-of-line-a7518131.html
That's not what I had suggested, perhaps I didn't make that clear enough.
I intended to point out the uncertainties and duties of an EEA member status. That it is not even legally clarified if the UK are automatically in it after dropping out of the EU; that if not, Norway could and might veto; that the idea that if no deal is struck on time, it's automatically WTO standards.
Superficially, things might look clear when in fact they are not (yet). They need to be addressed and that will need further time to clarify and agree upon.
Thanks. Id rather have a solid debate then someone going personal. At least it gives me something to think
Your argument is pretty popular with Brexiters. However I feel its a bit flawed in this circumstances
a- The EU is not a single entity but various countries and regions, some of whom do make loads of business with the UK but most do not. All of them are armed with a Veto. Why would, lets say, Romania, vote in favour of a good deal with the UK when they barely do any business with them? After all they barely do any business with the UK at all + freedom of movement is very important to them and the UK threatens it.
There are shitloads of Romanians in the UK, it's leverage.
b- A substantial chunk of the EU truly believe in the EU project and see Brexit as a threat. These people are most likely to vote according to their ideology rather then what business say. Which leads us to c
Are they stupid enough to vote for something that will ultimately feck them up, maybe?
c- Brexit gave these people the perfect excuse to justify crisis. Every crisis happening in the next 10 years will be attributed to Brexit. Its not our fault but its because of Brexit
Yep, people are that stupid, but as many fecked up countries already blame the EU, it's difficult to see where they will go with this.
d- The British politicians hasn't really covered themselves in glory. Time and time again Westminster blamed anything under the sun to foreigners (Eastern European workers, Romanian criminals, Brussels being inefficient etc). This tactic will be used more once its evident that the UK wont be allowed to get the deal it wanted which, in turn, will polarise the other side too.
Weird, gov
e- There will be plenty of vultures circling around the UK to try and exploit any sign of vulnerability to bring jobs to their own country. If a hard Brexit means the UK losing a chunk of its financial services to lets say Luxembourg then why would Luxembourg vote in favour of a good deal for the UK especially if it barely makes any business with the UK at all.
I am not portraying a doom and gloom scenario. England is prosperous enough to live without a deal with the EU or anybody really. Also islanders are resilient people, I can testify to that...
However I can see the UK getting greatly weakened out of this. It will lose unrestricted access to the single market and any influence it had on the continent which it (and other allies such as the US) relied heavily upon. I can see the UK shifting from an economic power with a strong political say on the world scene to simply a prosperous country. Will the Brits be happy about that? I don't know. They do seem to like having a say (ex the EU army) so if they are told to shut up because that doesn't concern them might hurt their ego and feelings
I think you are wrong, the £ound tanked today, basically as it looks like a harder Brexit, or much more likely a game of brinkmanship.I don't think May has ever made out that she can have zero tariff access to the single market, and controlled immigration. As much as your constant narrative about how fecked the UK is, can you at some point out that the UK has the ability to plunge the Eurozone into serious recession, and that's not something that anyone wants, EU, UK, or global players.
akaBrexit: UK will be 'front of line' for US trade deal, Donald Trump's team reassures Boris Johnson
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hnson-reassurance-front-of-line-a7518131.html
Brexit: UK will be 'front of line' for US trade deal, Donald Trump's team reassures Boris Johnson
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hnson-reassurance-front-of-line-a7518131.html
Knowing Boris he misunderstood , they actually said he'll be in the front line when the USA attack the UK
Firstly the press, the markets and Merkel amongst many took what she said yesterday and today that either it's a hard brexit or she thinks she can have both single market and controlled immigration.
There's nothing in between even if she might think so. In or out - Single market and immigration or not, no cherry picking.
The Eurozone can plunge the UK into recession and the EU can live without the UK, not the other way round, but neither scenario is desired by anyone.