Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Maticmaker said:
Oh dear who's nuancing now?
I did give an answer, relating to immigration, ... but glad you managed to understand the example I didn't give. :)
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You didn't give me an example of nuance, you elaborated on something else which allowed me to understand your initial point which isn't about nuance.
 
JPRouve said:
You didn't give me an example of nuance, you elaborated on something else which allowed me to understand your initial point which isn't about nuance.
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I believe in the context of political messaging that politicians of all persuasions rely on nuance, especially in sensitive areas like immigration, where they know that commentators and the general public will scrutinise their statements and outputs and seek to nuance/shade of meaning of the political expressions that fits their beliefs. As much as anything this is to ensure politicians stay on the right side of the law!
 
Maticmaker said:
I believe in the context of political messaging that politicians of all persuasions rely on nuance, especially in sensitive areas like immigration, where they know that commentators and the general public will scrutinise their statements and outputs and seek to nuance/shade of meaning of the political expressions that fits their beliefs. As much as anything this is to ensure politicians stay on the right side of the law!
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Politiicans do not like nuance because nuance often prevent cleavage or limits its effects, political parties rely on ideological schisms, that's how they convince people to vote for them regardless of people's personal interests. That's why sometimes people will use terms like loony left, that's why when talking about immigration they will often put entire populations against each others for example EU citizens against the rest, that's why instead of making an accurate point about immigration laws they will claim that they are not sovereign and that they don't have control of their immigration laws, that's why they will sometimes have on one side scandinavian countries and on the other side shithole countries.

And that's particularly true when you have a bipartisan context.
 
JPRouve said:
Politiicans do not like nuance
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No they don't like it when it works against them, but many do seek to make use of a nuance approach especially when dealing with sensitive issues, virtue signalling is a particular good one at the present time and occurs in all sorts of areas, where politicians rely on the nuance factor.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
For an extra year? If they ever allow it in, it's over for steel.
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Yeah, I don’t see much future for UK steel manufacturing. Especially if the UK is serious about hitting its climate targets. The Cumbria coal mine - intended for the steel industry - was a complete debacle.
 
Cheimoon said:
But you said nothing cause you're not a Haribo?
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After coming off booze I had a horrific Haribo habit for a few weeks, trying to replace the sugar from umpteen pints. I was at least 40% Haribo then.

golden_blunder said:
Good. You should be encouraging your children to have a good old fashioned British fry instead. Down with sugar and up with cholesterol
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I didn't realise Werther's is German. Thought that was a quintessentially (creepy) English brand.
 
Jippy said:
After coming off booze I had a horrific Haribo habit for a few weeks, trying to replace the sugar from umpteen pints. I was at least 40% Haribo then.
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That sounds like these bios of North American people. "Through his mother's ancestry, Jippy is 40% Haribo, but he also has Scottish, Kazach, Italian, and pretzel origins."
 
Cheimoon said:
That sounds like these bios of North American people. "Through his mother's ancestry, Jippy is 40% Haribo, but he also has Scottish, Kazach, Italian, and pretzel origins."
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:lol:Would be far more interesting than my actual lineage.
 
Jippy said:
After coming off booze I had a horrific Haribo habit for a few weeks, trying to replace the sugar from umpteen pints. I was at least 40% Haribo then.


I didn't realise Werther's is German. Thought that was a quintessentially (creepy) English brand.
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They can keep them.
 
Something weird is going on with the UK/EU trade balance at the moment. UK exports to the EU have basically recovered from the big drop after the Brexit deal earlier this year (and are in-line with non-EU exports). But UK imports from the EU are still way down on pre-Brexit.





As far as I can tell, no one really knows why this is happening yet.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
Something weird is going on with the UK/EU trade balance at the moment. UK exports to the EU have basically recovered from the big drop after the Brexit deal earlier this year (and are in-line with non-EU exports). But UK imports from the EU are still way down on pre-Brexit.





As far as I can tell, no one really knows why this is happening yet.
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https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum...P-EN.pdf/62804a63-f4c6-2425-0e48-739e984c9bfe

To end March, according to these figures exports to the UK are down 14.3% and Imports from the UK down 35.4% year on year
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Hmm, not sure with their explanation.
Here is April for the EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum...P-FR.pdf/ac857a2b-88f4-0b78-0f11-1c7bfe675f60
Year on year exports to the UK are down 3.3% and Imports from the UK down 27.1%

Assuming ONS get their data from HMRC, no confidence in HMRC at all.
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The EU seems to agree with the ONS explanation if you read the Methodology section in the document you posted. A google translate:
Since the introduction of Intrastat on 1 January 1993 in intra-EU trade, the value of intra-EU exports has been consistently higher than that of intra-EU imports. In theory, since exports are declared FOB and arrivals CIF, the value of the corresponding imports should be slightly higher than that of the exports. Eurostat considers intra-EU exports to be the most reliable indicator of total intra-EU trade, since at aggregate level total intra-EU exports have better coverage than total intra-EU imports. Due to this divergence in intra-EU trade and difficulties in interpreting figures in absolute terms at Member State level, Member State trade balances should be interpreted with caution. The same caution should be applied for the euro zone's trade balance, which includes some intra-EU trade.

Dutch trade flows are overestimated due to the so-called “Rotterdam Effect” (or quasi-transit trade): goods destined for other EU countries arrive at Dutch ports and, in accordance with EU rules, are registered as extra-EU imports by the Netherlands (country where goods are released for free circulation). It also increases intra-EU flows from the Netherlands to the Member States to which the goods are re-exported. Although to a lesser extent, the trade figures of other Member States such as Belgium or Luxembourg may also be overestimated due to near-transit.

The UK is considered an extra-EU partner country for the EU for the reporting period covered by this press release. However, the UK was still part of the internal market until the end of the transition period (31 December 2020), which means that trade data with the UK for reference periods up to December 2020 were based on statistical concepts applicable to trade between EU Member States. So the end of the transition period has had an impact on trade flows between the UK and EU member states.

As of January 2021, trade data with UK is based on a mixed concept. In application of the Withdrawal Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, the statistical concepts applicable for trade with Northern Ireland are the same as those for trade between Member States while for trade with the Kingdom United (excluding Northern Ireland) the same statistical concepts for trade with another extra-EU partner country apply.

For these reasons, data on trade with the UK are not fully comparable with data on trade with other extra-EU trading partners, and for reference periods before and after the end of 2020.

National concepts may differ from the harmonized methodology used by Eurostat, leading to differences between the figures in this release and those published at national level, both for raw data and for seasonally adjusted series.
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There's not much point looking at the EU data on EU-UK trade at the moment as it's comparing apples with oranges. Not that the intra-EU trade figures were ever reliable, as per the first paragraph.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
The EU seems to agree with the ONS explanation if you read the Methodology section in the document you posted. A google translate:

There's not much point looking at the EU data on EU-UK trade at the moment as it's comparing apples with oranges. Not that the intra-EU trade figures were ever reliable, as per the first paragraph.
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Yes plus the NI/Ire situation but declarations should always be based on FOB and if the comparisons are like for like then they should be comparable .

PS Thinking about it further, has this guy from ONS misunderstood the 'Rotterdam Effect' and it's unclear from his example whether the goods from China were imported into the UK , duties and freight paid etc or did it go direct to NL and the UK company just add £100 profit on the goods and invoiced it to an NL company.
Also when he's talking about cars - if the UK company is only finishing it off, as it were, it depends where the bulk of the car was made and if the UK part doesn't meet the minimum %age for Rules of Origin for duties purposes etc.
 
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