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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
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Well that virtually guarantees the backstop (or whatever they agree) will remain indefinitely as there is no way Sinn Fein and DUP will agree on anything. It certainly is a better idea than letting the DUP hold all the power as they seem determined to do everything they can to destroy Northern Ireland with a no-deal Brexit.

My view is that anything that makes the DUP furious is generally the right thing to do.

It's a masterstroke counter offer, the government can't legitimately criticize the nationalist veto without confirming their offer is a unionist one. Why not make the "landing zone" of a deal a straight NI only in/out referendum on an NI only backstop every 5 years?
 
So 500k is some help but 400k leaves them destitute?

That's not what I said.

In this scenario you're dead you're not being taxed further your children would be on a windfall income quite rightly. Just because you may pay a lot of tax in your lifetime doesn't mean your children pay less tax, same principle, there is no family tax everyone pays tax on money in and unearned income should be taxed more as it is.

Losing a parent or family member should NOT incur taxes. Sorry, I just don't agree with IHT below current levels.

Virtually my sole driving force has been to provide for my children in life and in death, so my aspiration to work hard through my whole life, buy a property and save and sacrifice to pass on my estate to my children should all be in vain? My aim is to leave them both enough to buy a small property of their own outright. As the owner of this relatively modest and paid for estate I should able to give them this gift on my death without them paying any tax on it, otherwise, why have I bothered striving all these years?

My children will be paying tax on everything they earn and do themselves, just as I have. What I wan't to do isn't ensuring they pay less tax at all.
 
It's a masterstroke counter offer, the government can't legitimately criticize the nationalist veto without confirming their offer is a unionist one. Why not make the "landing zone" of a deal a straight NI only in/out referendum on an NI only backstop every 5 years?

It is a great move by the EU - looks like a concession but in reality it strengthens their position. Fingers crossed this forces Boris to finally throw the DUP under a bus.
 
Are you saying you wouldn't bother working upwards if you can't as a couple pass on more than 250k to your children? You think that passes the sniff test?

It's nothing to do with aspiration. People against IHT fall into two categories the offspring of well off parents (greed) or those who despise their money being taken by the state (hoarders).
Under Labours proposed policies I can’t use my earnings to provide my children the best education I can afford because they’d shut down all private education, and after that, my limited and self earned, and already taxed life savings will again be massively taxed before I can give that to them. So exactly what should I spend my wage on???

(BTW: am I allowed to provide private home tuition for my kids under labaour’s scourge of privately funded education?)

So why would I put myself through the life of struggle and hard work? Maybe they should just get by with what the state gives them and I’ll just get by? Well done Labour for destroying the aspiration to progress.

This entire range of policies makes no sense because they lack empathy for the core life purpose of a massive vote bank. It will cost Corbyn his majority.
 
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That's not what I said.

Losing a parent or family member should NOT incur taxes. Sorry, I just don't agree with IHT below current levels.

Virtually my sole driving force has been to provide for my children in life and in death, so my aspiration to work hard through my whole life, buy a property and save and sacrifice to pass on my estate to my children should all be in vain? My aim is to leave them both enough to buy a small property of their own outright. As the owner of this relatively modest and paid for estate I should able to give them this gift on my death without them paying any tax on it, otherwise, why have I bothered striving all these years?

My children will be paying tax on everything they earn and do themselves, just as I have. What I wan't to do isn't ensuring they pay less tax at all.

Again 400k rather than 500k and your answer becomes why would i bother? Because you're still leaving money to them that's why. Because you want to give them what they need whilst they're alive to make them happy?

It's fairer to tax that unearned income than it is to put taxes up on those who are still alive.
 
Again 400k rather than 500k and your answer becomes why would i bother?

I'm not differentiating between 400 and 500k. Whatever I leave them will have been taxed at various points throughout my life. Why should they be taxed on this 'already taxed' money? A government should have NO hand on money left to children in death.

It's fairer to tax that unearned income than it is to put taxes up on those who are still alive.

Again, that 'income' as you put it (I call it a goodbye gift from their father) has already been taxed. I see it as unfair to tax it again, no argument will change my view on this.
 
Under Labours new policies I can’t use my earnings to provide my children the best education I can afford because they’d shut down all private education, and my limited life savings will be massively taxed before I can give that to them. So what do I spend my wage on???

(BTW: am I allowed to provide private home tuition for my kids under labaour’s scourge of privately funded education?)

So why would I put myself through the life of struggle and hard work? Maybe they should just get by with what the state gives them and I’ll just get by? Well done Labour for destroying motivation to progress.

This entire range of policies makes no sense because they lack empathy for the core human motivations of a massive core vote bank. It will cost Corbyn his majority.

This is a good post and sums up my current view of what the labour party have sadly become. I was brought up in a labour house and voted Labour for a long time as it represented what I felt I was.

I can't afford private education for my two. But nor am I so ideologically opposed to it (or jealous of it) that I would see the dismantlement of private schools. Basically, if I could afford it, I would do it.
 
On a lighter note, it looks like the Scottish Indy Ref campaign is starting to build up momentum again. Saw this belter earlier.

FB-IMG-1570613059966.jpg
 
It's a masterstroke counter offer, the government can't legitimately criticize the nationalist veto without confirming their offer is a unionist one. Why not make the "landing zone" of a deal a straight NI only in/out referendum on an NI only backstop every 5 years?
The irony is that an NI only customs union would probably turn out to be a massive economic advantage for the province. I would say that it would ultimately be the EU who were desperate to get them out of the backstop. As long as no moves were made in the direction of reunification, it could actually be win win for the people of NI including the DUP. Imagine the number of businesses that would like to benefit from that unique position.
 


DUP rejects new deal offer because all other parties and majority of people in Northern Ireland are in complete disagreement with them. DUP should be able to do what they want even without the support of most people because... they are the DUP.

'The double majority arrangement is designed to ensure we can never get out of customs union, given all the other parties are supportive of staying in the EU'

Nice one Sammy! Yes nobody wants this apart from you so to hell with everybody else!
 
DUP rejects new deal offer because all other parties and majority of people in Northern Ireland are in complete disagreement with them. DUP should be able to do what they want even without the support of most people because... they are the DUP.

'The double majority arrangement is designed to ensure we can never get out of customs union, given all the other parties are supportive of staying in the EU'

Nice one Sammy! Yes nobody wants this apart from you so to hell with everybody else!

Incredible isn't it, you think they're unable to get that concept or just wilful liars? I'd assume the latter. Knowing the DUP i hope there's a very thorough investigation into their accounts.
 
How they've got the gall to have Democratic in their party name is beyond me.

Are the Tories going to continue to kowtow to these hypocrites given that they've lost the majority of the House anyway?
 
DUP rejects new deal offer because all other parties and majority of people in Northern Ireland are in complete disagreement with them. DUP should be able to do what they want even without the support of most people because... they are the DUP.

'The double majority arrangement is designed to ensure we can never get out of customs union, given all the other parties are supportive of staying in the EU'

Nice one Sammy! Yes nobody wants this apart from you so to hell with everybody else!

The irony here is he is pretty much describing Democracy here yet the so called Democratic Unionist Party wont accept it.

Couldnt make it up.
 
yes... because it plays into the narrative of blaming the EU for rejecting the UK's (self titled) fair and reasonable proposals
This strategically curated narrative is only as good as the amount of people who will believe it...
 
Literally not a single bit of your post relates to what i actually put. Again as i don't think some understand IHT Labours proposal is as a couple that you can gain 250k tax free (oh no just 250k). Anything above 250k becomes income and you pay 40% tax.

So 500k becomes 400k, that's a fundamental attack on the instinct to want to look after your children to you? You'd be concerned how they'll get by on 400k instead of 500k? Yeah right

For people like me the problem is more that that money has already been taxed. If I leave 500k I will already have paid over 500k on taxes on that. Take half of that again and your up to 75%. Add in politicians like BOJO who will gladly fcuck away 5 Billion to look good for 15 minutes and you might understand why not everyone is on board with this. (and I generally consider myself on the left).
 
its probably about 45% good then...
pretty shit in a two horse race... probably a 50-100 seat majority on a FPTP election... so 45% is probably good enough
It was 34% of those eligible to vote in the last referendum. I think it goes down considerably from that in any future referendum.

Of course just my opinion!
 
For people like me the problem is more that that money has already been taxed. If I leave 500k I will already have paid over 500k on taxes on that. Take half of that again and your up to 75%. Add in politicians like BOJO who will gladly fcuck away 5 Billion to look good for 15 minutes and you might understand why not everyone is on board with this. (and I generally consider myself on the left).

Last comment on this as feel like I'm diverting the thread.

Yes it has already been taxed but money is not only taxed once it's taxed at every stage of redistribution (which is to simplify spend then earn repeated across people). The difference here is that people feel redistribution within a family is somehow different, if you employed a family member you'd expect earnings to be taxed why because it's no longer your money yet unearned gifts are felt as "my money" so untaxed? You're dead it's not your money and it's an income.
 
Last comment on this as feel like I'm diverting the thread.

Yes it has already been taxed but money is not only taxed once it's taxed at every stage of redistribution (which is to simplify spend then earn repeated across people). The difference here is that people feel redistribution within a family is somehow different, if you employed a family member you'd expect earnings to be taxed why because it's no longer your money yet unearned gifts are felt as "my money" so untaxed? You're dead it's not your money and it's an income.
It’s very badly conceived bollox, and will cost Labour many votes that they once had.

PS: you’ve yet to tell me what to spend my wages on when I can’t pay to educate my children or leave them untaxed inheritance. Should I just piss it away down the pub then?

You’re right, let’s leave it there.
 
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It was 34% of those eligible to vote in the last referendum. I think it goes down considerably from that in any future referendum.

Of course just my opinion!
Its an interesting point... I think the vast majority of those that voted remain before would do so again, the vast majority who voted leave would do so again... some small shifts and of course demographically more of an advantage to remain as probably more young (generally remain) voters and fewer old (generally leave) voters... the three real drivers of success would be
1. Who can vote (eg lowering age to 16 like in indy ref, or allowing eu citizens resident in the uk to vote)
2. what the question was (it probably wouldnt be the same as it didnt resolve anything before)
3. that approx 33% of the population that didnt vote - there will be remain and leave people in that and energizing those would seem to be the best way for either side to get the vote up.

I have to say an appeal to base emotions probably is better at energising people than pragmatic arguments of economics

But in all of that the real thing to consider is will a GE or a referendum come first ... if its a GE then forget about all of the above because with a brexit/conservative alliance being the leave option, the remain vote split between several parties and a FPTP system there is a very good chance that there is a WTO commitment in a manifesto and a big enough majority in parliament to force it through

basically unless corbyn changes his mind on 2 things (backing somebody else to lead a GNU and a second referendum before a general election) I think leave on WTO rules is odds on (with as you say only a small % of the population actually voting for it)

I am positive that in the long term the libs will probably become the european democrats and eventually (10 years or so) we might get to rejoin having had a decade of lost growth and having to accept the Euro, no veto and a European Army - but in truth im ok with all those things and if my son gets freedom of movement back and European Citizenship around his 18th Birthday then im more than ok with that - Id rather win the war than win the battle and after the smug we got our country back and hoopla a decade of econnomic difficulties, a growing demographic in favour of being in Europe and not to mention us remoaners continuing to remoan with a good dose of told you so with each economic problem Im confident we ultimatley end up back where I think we belong and back in Europe ... but as for this particular battle - unless there is a referendum before a GE i think its probably going to be lost
 
Just breaking now: Saturday 19th October is Brexit D-Day.

If a deal is presented, parliament will vote on it. If not "a range of options will be explored".


Brexit: Special sitting for MPs to decide UK's future
MPs will be called to Parliament for a special Saturday sitting in a decisive day for the future of Brexit.
Parliament will meet on 19 October after a crunch EU summit - seen as the last chance for the UK and EU to agree a deal ahead of 31 October deadline.
If agreed, the additional day would coincide with an anti-Brexit march run by the People's Vote campaign, which could see thousands of protesters heading to Westminster.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49984367

Order in the popcorn now!

Given its also a planned Anti Brexit Saturday protest march as well, is that the day we might also see some good old fashioned civil disorder too?

So to watch on TV, or join the masses on the streets?! Maybe we can all meet up as a Cafe Anti Brexit clan?
 
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Yeah. It’s very badly conceived bollox, and will cost Labour many votes that they once had.

PS: you’ve yet to tell me what to spend my wages on when I can’t pay to educate my children or leave them untaxed inheritance. Should I just piss it away down the pub then?

You’re right, let’s leave it there.

I don't know why you're expecting me to direct you how to spend your money, for one i know nothing about you and secondly i wouldn't if i did. There's a gap between discussing societal mechanisms and individuals.

There's plenty of ways you can enrich your kids lives/happiness/prospects with money or time apart from those two things and the pub.
 
Some speculation that Johnson might declare a state of emergency on the 19th, to avoid the Benn Act stuff.
 
Order in the popcorn now! Given its a Saturday, is that the day we might also see some good old fashioned civil disorder too?
will be interesting to see what happens

I could see several options being offered for indicative votes if no deal agreed with the eu - and all being rejected

Leave with no deal - loose
Mays Deal - Loose
Boris deal even though rejected by the EU - loose
Norway deal - loose (though this might have the best shot of going through)
remain - loose

At which point boris says there is no point in writing a letter to the eu as I cant give them a reason to give us an extension because parliament wont say what it wants and it wont vote for a general election
 
You're dead it's not your money and it's an income.

It isn't income, however you slice it. An income is money received in exchange for work/service/goods or through investment dividends. It's a essentially a quid-pro-quo financial transaction. Money you receive from family, whether that is pocket money for kids or inheritance for adults, does not fall into the definition of an income. An inheritance is a posthumous donation, the deceased gets nothing for it.

But we can argue, on a different thread, about what constitutes acceptable level of taxation for inheritances because there is merit on redistribution of accrued, generational family wealth.
 
I could see several options being offered for indicative votes if no deal agreed with the eu - and all being rejected

Leave with no deal - loose
Mays Deal - Loose
Boris deal even though rejected by the EU - loose
Norway deal - loose (though this might have the best shot of going through)
remain - loose

At which point Boris says there is no point in writing a letter to the eu as I cant give them a reason to give us an extension because parliament wont say what it wants and it wont vote for a general election

He'd be right in that case. So what happens then?

(polite PS: lose not loose)
 
Some speculation that Johnson might declare a state of emergency on the 19th, to avoid the Benn Act stuff.
you know what - there is a bunch of "crusties" around westminister for cummings to let the brownshirts brexit mob loose on
call for protests on saturday - boris showboats in the commons and refuses to sign the surrender letter of the vermin romoaners... few heads get cracked open outside and state of emergency is declared - parliament is shut down and then see if the courts can force him to ask for an extension - I assume as a mimimum thats going to take a week or so and then even if they say he has to write the letter he can resign ...

yeah I could see them trying that
 
you know what - there is a bunch of "crusties" around westminister for cummings to let the brownshirts brexit mob loose on
call for protests on saturday - boris showboats in the commons and refuses to sign the surrender letter of the vermin romoaners... few heads get cracked open outside and state of emergency is declared - parliament is shut down and then see if the courts can force him to ask for an extension - I assume as a mimimum thats going to take a week or so and then even if they say he has to write the letter he can resign ...

yeah I could see them trying that
There is already an anti-Brexit march run by the People's Vote campaign planned for that day. Lets all go!