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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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wow - thanks BBC for visiting another city that voted to leave and doing more vox pops with people wandering around at a time when most people are at work.

They need to visit a town like Manchester that had a massive pro remain stance, is outward and progressive and not riven with artificial paranoia about immigration.

There is definitely a pro-leave bias in the news reporting....endlessly having Farage and Francois onscreen rather than Caroline Lucas who actually has achieved getting a seat in parliament, unlike Farage. The BBC and the judiciary are the last bulwark we have against the reactionary forces that I refuse to classify as "populist" - another euphemism for dangerous right wingers that somehow has become acceptable. I'm at the point where I am actually making contingency plans to leave the country...if these fanatics maintain or increase their hold on the country.
I noticed that yesterday too. BBC is not only biased, but dangerously so.
 
Just before Johnson walked out of the commons..



So after Cox et al saying the government will uphold the law, Boris is now saying he won’t. Jesus Christ..
 
Thought this was interesting...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit-research

English people living in Wales tilted it towards Brexit, research finds

Areas of Wales with big English communities had larger leave vote in 2016, according to study

The question of why Wales voted to leave the EU can in large part be answered by the number of English retired people who have moved across the border, research has found.

Despite being one of the biggest beneficiaries of EU funding, Wales voted leave by a majority of 52% to 48% in the 2016 referendum – a result that took some analysts by surprise. However, work by Danny Dorling, a professor of geography at Oxford, found that the result could in part be attributed to the influence of English voters.

“If you look at the more genuinely Welsh areas, especially the Welsh-speaking ones, they did not want to leave the EU,” Dorling told the Sunday Times. “Wales was made to look like a Brexit-supporting nation by its English settlers.”

About 21% (650,000) of people living in Wales were born in England, with nearly a quarter aged over 65. The country voted for Brexit by a majority of just 82,000.

Border towns and areas of central Wales with large English communities, such as Wrexham and Powys, recorded a higher proportion of leave votes, whereas Welsh-speaking areas such as Gwynedd and Ceredigion had high remain votes.

Dorling’s research, which was presented at the British Science Association’s annual meeting at Warwick University, also suggested that most of the UK’s leave votes did come not from the north of England but the south, with the highest numbers in areas populated with affluent older people, such as Hampshire, Cornwall and Devon.

“The Welsh did not want to quit the EU, but that is one of many false beliefs about Brexit. The biggest is that the pro-leave vote was due to northerners,” he said. “It’s true some northern areas were strongly pro-Brexit, but the population there is too small to swing the vote.

“The real support for Brexit, in terms of numbers of votes, was in places like Cornwall, which was 57% for leave, Hampshire with 54%, Essex with 62% and Norfolk with 57%. It is those southern English voters that are dragging Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland unwillingly out of Europe.

“Everyone blames Wigan and Stoke for Brexit but we should really be blaming Cornwall and Devon.”
 
I haven't checked, but it wouldn't surprise me if the TV programmes showing the workings of Parliament might be topping the viewer ratings. All 'knock-about' stuff yesterday, can't be the same today...can it?

Never before have so many been so interested in watching live Politics unfold, perhaps there is an up-side to Brexit after all?
 
So when extension day comes and Johnson says no to doing it, what punishment can parliament dish onto him?
 
So when extension day comes and Johnson says no to doing it, what punishment can parliament dish onto him?

Whatever it might be nothing seems to deter him.

Boris is perhaps above all else a Glory Hunter or in football parlance a 'plastic', he knows one way or another he will go down in history as; the man who took us out of the EU, or, the shortest serving PM ever, or the first PM to be incarcerated in the Tower of London... or maybe all three, and he has his personal 'Machiavelli', that is one Dominic Cummings, to thank for his legacy.

There are comparisons with Trump and its true. Trumps Political enemies don't get him, they just don't get him, what they go after him with is 'grits to his mill' and his base lap it up. Similarly our politicians don't get Boris either, and are also serving up soft balls for Boris to slam out of Court (forgive the pun).

God help us all 'fruitcake leaders' and dumb arse politicians... mind you they do say you get the politicians you deserve and there is probably some truth in that!
 
Whatever it might be nothing seems to deter him.

Boris is perhaps above all else a Glory Hunter or in football parlance a 'plastic', he knows one way or another he will go down in history as; the man who took us out of the EU, or, the shortest serving PM ever, or the first PM to be incarcerated in the Tower of London... or maybe all three, and he has his personal 'Machiavelli', that is one Dominic Cummings, to thank for his legacy.

There are comparisons with Trump and its true. Trumps Political enemies don't get him, they just don't get him, what they go after him with is 'grits to his mill' and his base lap it up. Similarly our politicians don't get Boris either, and are also serving up soft balls for Boris to slam out of Court (forgive the pun).

God help us all 'fruitcake leaders' and dumb arse politicians... mind you they do say you get the politicians you deserve and there is probably some truth in that!

I think they get him. Judging by whats been said in Parliament today they know hes just playing up to his base. But how do you argue against someone who just doesnt give a shit what you say?

They talked policy and he just replied with sound bites and didnt answer their questions. They talked about being found by court to have acted illegally and he brushed it off, again without answering to the questions put to him. They raised the issue of funds when mayor going to his 'friend' and again he just brushed it off with angry rhetoric.

Not sure how you debate someone who will just brazenly lie to your face, and doesnt care if you know hes doing it?
 
Not sure how you debate someone who will just brazenly lie to your face, and doesnt care if you know hes doing it?

You don't!.. throwing insults (even those that are true) doesn't work with such as Boris, he is on a suicide mission and he knows some MP's cannot contain themselves and in amongst the truths they hurl at him are many insults and they try to take the p**s, they can't help it and when they do this they are on his ground... 'gotcha'!

Boris believes the ace up his sleeve is the electorate, he knows that the prospect of a GE now frightens the opposition who (lets be honest) really don't haven't the courage of their convictions and are unwilling to test public opinion with the only Ballot that now counts which is a GE. Asking for a second referendum is a nonsense and everyone knows it is. Referendums and the results, as such, are in terms of Brexit dead in the water as has been proved, they mean nothing, parliament has demonstrated that over the last 3+ years.

All this has tested our Constitution to the limits and beyond. Boris is the first serving PM to have been found guilty of breaking the law whilst in office; but as the Attorney General has argued he committed an offence that until Tuesday was not recognised/defined legally as an offence, it may have been seen as, 'bad form' or lying, or being economical with the truth, all previously acceptable if not welcomed in political circles, it was hitherto unchallenged. Now such behaviour is deemed unlawful and will forever more be so, under our unwritten (precedent- led) constitution, as defined by the Supreme Court .

The only way to prevent Boris achieving his goal and/or becoming the first Brexit martyr is to call his bluff with a VONC; however the opposition is divided and as such Boris can see his place in history lying ahead of him.
 
John Major says bj can get an Order in Council by the Pirvy Council (whatever that means) and ignore the Benn Act, therefore take us out of the EU with No Deal on October 31st.

Anyone in the know care to expand?

@owlo @sun_tzu
 
Order of council is a prerogative power. Would be struck down by the courts within hours.

Civil contingencies act. Not happening.
 
John Major says bj can get an Order in Council by the Pirvy Council (whatever that means) and ignore the Benn Act, therefore take us out of the EU with No Deal on October 31st.

Anyone in the know care to expand?

@owlo @sun_tzu
These are the "Henry the 8th" powers that nominally the Privy council has. The Privy council pre-dates the modern constitutional Monarchy (think Game of thrones small council type idea) and has these powers to use to suspend or amend any particular act without question by parliament.

First ascribed into written law in 1539 under Henry the 8th, when later on the constitutional Monarchy was set up these powers remained with the Privy Council as ironically a sort of "backstop" for in the event of their being a conflict between the sovereign and Parliament or parliament had become deadlocked on an issue.

Given Parliament has not been "deadlocked" on what to do and has given the Prime Minister specific instructions for how to proceed in the event of not securing a deal, if they try and do this it will be struck out by the courts immediately. This was also essentially how the government initially planned to get Brexit legislation though parliament back at the start of the process and Gina Miller's first case fought and won against this, meaning Parliament had to agree the primary legislation.

The Supreme courts unprecedented unanimous verdict was probably partly due to them wanting to send an unequivocal message about not trying this sort of stuff. If Boris tries to do it it will be declared unlawful and again will be declared void.

So the week of the 21st October will see a flurry of legal battles and calls for censure from parliament. If he went down that route I would expect there to be a Government of National Unity setup for a few weeks to secure an extension, and based on the length of the extension for their to either be a referendum vote or an election.
 
John Major says bj can get an Order in Council by the Pirvy Council (whatever that means) and ignore the Benn Act, therefore take us out of the EU with No Deal on October 31st.

Anyone in the know care to expand?

@owlo @sun_tzu
Genuinley I have no idea... Im pretty sure that the Benn Act was written with the help of at least 1 and i think 2 former Atourney Generals plus of course Im sure they had further legal advice.

That said Boris will have recieved his own advice and to be saying what he is (i.e. I will respect the law but i wont submit the letter) tells me that he must feel there is a mechanism that allows him to do both (or hes just that confident that a withdrawal agreement will pass)

There seems to be a lot of talk about submitting a second letter - I dunno is it possible he could write something along the lines of
"I was legall required to write the first letter but the UK government under my leadership will not negotiate further and therefore an extension serves no purpose other than to destabalise the govenrment and seek regime change and we would take any extension as an attempt to overthrow the democratically elected government and therefore an act of war"
its crazy... but its boris so honestly i have no idea what he thinks his way round it is...

Perhaps as simple as resign on 19th? knowing that it leaves a very limited time for a GNU to be formed and act (possibly we go out on 31st but if not almost certainly an election very soon and the whole remoaners stole brexit... I believe in brexit so much I quit... parliament vs the people etc)
 
but its boris so honestly i have no idea what he thinks his way round it is...

Boris is on a suicide mission and all aspects of our unwritten constitution, especially the three-way balance of power between parliament/executive/ Judiciary are being altered significantly either by Boris's own actions, or on the countermeasures taken by parliament/speaker and the Judiciary.

Regardless of the fate of Brexit or of Boris himself, all gloves are off now. New precedents are being set almost everyday and the least of the MP's worries should be the language being used, its the actions being taken that will reverberate down the ages, long after the current 'honourable members' have been forgotten.

The phrase 'consent of the losers' is vitally important if a democracy (representative or otherwise) is to function. We haven't got that and are unlikely to achieve that now, winner takes all.
 
Interesting on Sky news, Dover is only the 9th biggest port for trade with Europe. Grimsby/Immingham tops the list. I'm not suggesting that knowledge changes anything, it's more a comment on how lazy the press have been just bogging down to Dover all the time.
 
Really good post and I agree with every letter.

Boris is on a suicide mission and all aspects of our unwritten constitution, especially the three-way balance of power between parliament/executive/ Judiciary are being altered significantly either by Boris's own actions, or on the countermeasures taken by parliament/speaker and the Judiciary.

I don't think even Boris's biggest sceptic's envisaged quite how destructive, and suicidal as you put it, he was going to be. It's been one of the most astonishing few weeks I've ever witnessed politically and that is saying something considering the previous 3 years. But in another thread I likened the current political situation to nuclear fission. Each side is fuelling each other to what is likely (or very nearly already is) a massive and damaging explosion.

Regardless of the fate of Brexit or of Boris himself, all gloves are off now. New precedents are being set almost everyday and the least of the MP's worries should be the language being used, its the actions being taken that will reverberate down the ages, long after the current 'honourable members' have been forgotten.

Perfectly put. The main issue is being buried beneath other layers of vitriol that are burying the problems that actually need solving. I don't see any politician coming out of this with an enhanced reputation long term and the precedents being set will now be used for MP's for generations to come as a new way of politics. Totally scary, which leads to your below comment ...

The phrase 'consent of the losers' is vitally important if a democracy (representative or otherwise) is to function. We haven't got that and are unlikely to achieve that now, winner takes all.

... consent of the losers! Without it there can be no democracy. This is the compromise we all have to make when your opinion is not in the majority and the reason why, as a remainer myself, I find the remain side just as damaging in this situation as the hard-line brexiteers.
 

Glad someone is looking at the southern counties and the huge population in the south. Said it since the vote after looking through the results.

Ultimately though, after looking at all the areas there's not much you can point to, 40% percent voting leave in one area is still a huge proportion voting leave. Many areas are quite evenly split but people fall for this tagging of remain vs leave areas.

I wonder if the Guardian would feel like looking into how many Welsh NI and Scottish voted remain living in England.
 
Interesting on Sky news, Dover is only the 9th biggest port for trade with Europe. Grimsby/Immingham tops the list. I'm not suggesting that knowledge changes anything, it's more a comment on how lazy the press have been just bogging down to Dover all the time.

It's a great way of distorting facts- Grimsby/Immingham are no.1 for all imports/exports and Dover no.9.
With Europe it's 1 Immingham 2. London just ahead of 3. Dover

This is based on tonnage, then you look closer at what the products are - where Immingham is based on Bulk Liquid/Oil/Iron Ore/Steel etc which aren't going to shipped on a lorry.
 
Interesting on Sky news, Dover is only the 9th biggest port for trade with Europe. Grimsby/Immingham tops the list. I'm not suggesting that knowledge changes anything, it's more a comment on how lazy the press have been just bogging down to Dover all the time.
I think its more the fact that the others are container ports - which have quite a different logistics / supply chain set up than roro ports
i.e. the normal artics that drive backwards and forwards cant go on a container boat so may get backed up in kent as they need roro facilities
 
I think its more the fact that the others are container ports - which have quite a different logistics / supply chain set up than roro ports
i.e. the normal artics that drive backwards and forwards cant go on a container boat so may get backed up in kent as they need roro facilities
Yes, Sky did say that to be fair to them. I still found it an interesting visit though.
 
Yes, Sky did say that to be fair to them. I still found it an interesting visit though.
supermarkets for example are not set up to mass unload containers into their supply chain... their entire model is built around unloading artics...
Container handlers are pretty pricey, need a lot of room and there is nowhere close to their being enough of them to plug the gap to switch fresh food onto container solutions
 
It's a great way of distorting facts- Grimsby/Immingham are no.1 for all imports/exports and Dover no.9.
With Europe it's 1 Immingham 2. London just ahead of 3. Dover

This is based on tonnage, then you look closer at what the products are - where Immingham is based on Bulk Liquid/Oil/Iron Ore/Steel etc which aren't going to shipped on a lorry.
I don't think anyone had set out to distort facts Paul, don't get paranoid! More likely my duff interpretation.
 
supermarkets for example are not set up to mass unload containers into their supply chain... their entire model is built around unloading artics...
Container handlers are pretty pricey, need a lot of room and there is nowhere close to their being enough of them to plug the gap to switch fresh food onto container solutions
It's mostly beer and crisps for me, although I do eat a lot of oranges pretending to be healthy. Lucky there's plenty of vitamin C in crisps really.
 
I don't think anyone had set out to distort facts Paul, don't get paranoid! More likely my duff interpretation.

I'm not talking about you. But if the media are trying to start making out that the Dover/Folkestone-Calais is not the most vital link to Europe then it's more misinformation. But if you've developed a doubt imagine how many less informed people than you will take that information.
 
I'm not talking about you. But if the media are trying to start making out that the Dover/Folkestone-Calais is not the most vital link to Europe then it's more misinformation. But if you've developed a doubt imagine how many less informed people than you will take that information.
That is paranoia. They weren't 'starting to make out' anything, they were just going somewhere different for variety, you're reading too much into it.
 
So. Boris Johnson tells us that he is still working hard to get an acceptable WA.
Really. Yet another lie.
Why is he not attending the meeting today with Mr Barnier.
Because he doesn't have the slightest interest in that.
He is only interested in campaigning for the forthcoming GE. For Boris, it is all about power. And if he can convince enough of the electorate that it is he who is on their side against parliament instead of reality then that is his primary objective
 
Brendan O'Neill believes victims of Jimmy Savile should shut up; opposes efforts to combat racism in football; calls Greta Thunberg a "millenarian weirdo". So, naturally, he's invited on the BBC. Here, he encourages the poor to riot on behalf of billionaire disaster capitalists:
https://mobile.twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1177550449425227777

David Lammy said:
Right wing commentator Brendan O’Neill calling for riots over Brexit is the height of irresponsibility. Lost lives, broken families, burnt out homes, looted shops and damaged businesses are not some cheap talking point
 
Forgotten? It's hard to forget about them when they're on the telly every ten minutes.
 
@buchansleftleg orders of council are not Henry viii powers. Henry viii powers are those granted to the government to amend legislation. You are correct that both are a no go though.
 
Contrasting updates from Jess Phillips MP:
My office is closed to public today but my constituents can still ring & email for help. I want to thank those who sent lovely messages, today we have had lots of leave voters and conservative voters contacting with love as well as obviously those with other views.
Unfortunately, as well as receiving support (see previous post), the Labour MP, Jess Phillips, has also received more threats overnight.

From Sky News:

It reads, “Unless you change your attitude, be afraid, be very afraid... wherever you are, keep looking over your shoulder. The person standing behind you may not be friendly. You and your Remain friends have been warned.”

Ms Phillips said: “The other thing that happened yesterday is that all day the phones in my Westminster office had to eventually be switched off because the line was being jammed with people.

“I won’t say what they were shouting because I’m not sure it’s fit for the television, but using words like ‘traitor’,” the Labour MP added.

Asked if she’s had death threats she said, “Yeah, lots.”