Lol
60 jobs lost due to not having left the eu yet
60 jobs lost due to not having left the eu yet
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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The uk seem confident that it will manage to get a cherry picking deal with the eu. I much doubt that it as that would be the end of the eu. I wonder what the uk would do if a year and a half after it activated article 50 it hasn't been able to come out with a decent deal for access in the single market. Would it reconsider it's strategy and remain in the eu? Would it sign every trade deal thrown to its way even if it's as bad/worse then ttip?
Its funny how they they think they can restrict immigration but still stay as part of the single market. Highly highly unlikely that will happen. What's more likely is that the EU takes us to the cleaners as they want (and should) use us as an example if other member states want to leave
I think they will use the same trick they used with tsipras. The eu will keep delaying throughout the 2 years of negotiations only to offer a take it or leave it deal by the end of it.
Oh no, we've been assured by brexiters that wont happen. Were too valuable and great.
Posturing before negotiations is understandable by the people involved but the rest of the people I hear talking like this are discontented left over EU/remainders. We will make a deal the best we can and live with the consequences given our 68 billion pound trade deficit with the EU having trade with the EU isn't cherries for the UK alone.
I can't see the point in being all negative now, it could all go tits up but that's life.
How long will the EU continue to have support when they start to lay off all the people who sell products and services into the UK just to make a point about how great the EU is? Its on pretty thin ice already. It would be a little ironic to see the EU crumble because it tried to spite the UK for leaving.
My view is we can't have a free trade deal with the EU without free movement. So pick a number for the tariff rate and lets get on with it. The UK will respond like for like on tariffs and thats that.
I think if the EU really plays it the way some on here want it too I would change my vote from remain to leave if there was a second referendum.
"Around 3,500 Irish people are employed in the mushroom industry and Tipperary TD Jackie Cahill of Fianna Fáil says all of those jobs could be at risk because 95% of Irish-grown mushrooms go to the UK."
Over to you Mr Junker as it seems that of the people who actually pick cherries for the UK 95% are from Turkey and Spain and its about Irish mushroom pickers as well.
Won't somebody think of the mushroom pickers?
The trade deficit thing is something that is constantly being misunderstood. Yes the UK runs with a trade deficit. There again its scattered throughout to a number of countries in the EU. The UK on the other hand exports 47% to the EU. Now lets keep it simple by using an example. The UK buys 25 from Germany, 20 from France, 10 from Sweden and 5 from Italy. However it sells 47 to the bloc. Who will tank that better? Now lets use the real percentages. About 44% of the UK’s exports go to other EU countries, while somewhere between 8-17% of exports from other EU countries go to the UK (depending on how you measure it). Who would end up suffering the most with tariffs? Especially considering that the right deal may see a big chunk of London's financial services moving to Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin. That would sweeten the blow
I also encourage you to see things from the other side of the barricade. The EU is a membership club and anyone whose not part of the club cant enjoy the benefits that club gives. If that was the case no one would be in the club in the first place. Also the EU and its citizens had been demonised for decades. The UK foreign secretary had likened the EU to a nazi project while EU immigrants had been blamed for everything under the sun from abusing on the NHS to clogging the M4. This situation had reached the ridiculous now with a number of EU citizens being abused and EU sympathisers/citizens are even killed (a Polish guy had been killed recently in Harlow, at the eve of the referendum Jo Cox was also killed). These sort of things doesn't allow negotiations to be conducted in a serene manner.
It seems that the UK thinks that it can do and say what it wants without suffer any consequences. It can leave the EU to get rid of the pesky immigrants but still retain its financial passport within the EU which is crucial for its financial services. It can bomb countries and sell weapons to dictators but then it expects the Southern EU states to nanny all the asylum seekers such actions had caused. It can insult the EU institutions but then it expects it to fully co-operate to give them the best deal ever. Well.......that sort of cherry picking doesn't really work in real life and the very existence of the EU lies in not allowing the UK to get that sort of cherry picking. This cherry picking/spoiled brat mentality wont help the UK in setting trade deals with other giants either especially those who can easily live without having a preferential trade with the UK (China, the US) etc. I shiver at the thought of Boris conducting trade deals with the crazy nurse.
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This is an excellent article from a non EU/UK source
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/europe/britain-brexit-eu.html?_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/europe/britain-brexit-eu.html?_r=0
I know we are not supposed to post Telegraph articles, but this is just a quote (fair use and all that) and a bit of a gem:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...back-strikes-now-are-deluded-children-living/
Errrmmm. I'm sorry, but didn't you write this earlier this week?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...back-strikes-now-are-deluded-children-living/
Errrmmm. I'm sorry, but didn't you write this earlier this week?
You sound very bitter about something
Just because a person says things as they are that doesn't make him bitter. The UK should stop playing the spoiled brat game only to cry foul whenever it doesn't get its way. The world won't bend over backwards to please the UK + its not how politics work
Funnily enough we did the same in the 60s and 70s and against the British too. It didn't work well for us and it won't work well for you. A small fish can never bully a bigger one irrespective of how smart it is (and lets face it Boris, Davis and Fox aren't smart)
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Well I don't see them playing the spoiled brat anywhere, I think its a figment of your imagination
Well its either that or that they think the EU is lead by a bunch of idiots who can't wait to get themselves screwed by the Brits. Either way, they are wrong.
The EU has appointed a seasoned negotiator who can rely on a proven team which has decades of experience in conducted trade deals.
The UK on the other hand had trusted this delicate role on two people ie a former London major guy who got screwed by his best mate and the other guy who only found out recently that his master plan (ie making trade deals with individual EU country) cant be done. Their respective teams are work on progress and its perfectly evident that prior to the referendum there had been no plans about Brexit whatsoever. That doesn't inspire me with alot of confidence.
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That does sum it all up nicely.
Well that much is true
The govmt has yet to put together a negotiating team, if you think they should go in there without one then fair enuff
Brexit without plans, course not, it hasn't been done before. Remind me what scotlands plans were if they gained independence, what currency they were going to use and what plans they had for all the businesses up there that said they would relocate to London. What genius plan did they have?
That is such a silly statement. The fact that it hasn't been done before is exactly why there should have been a plan. Scotland's lack of plan was equally stupid and they were rightly called out on it. It's a horrendous example to try to use. The fact that it hasn't been done before doesn't mean you can't plan for it. Infact it's the opposite. I can't believe people can honestly think that changing the course of our future without a plan is in any way intelligent. I don't think you can define that as anything but stupid.
Well its evident that you're pretty biased TBH which makes it difficult to discuss this issue with you.
It looks evident that the Brexit saga started out a pathetic Tory attempt to control Ukip's increasingly popularity and continued as a dick measuring contest between the two Etonian boys. Very few people in Westminster really wanted Brexit and those who did, had absolutely no clue what they were talking about (EU expert Davis didn't even know that a country cant even conduct ad hoc deals with individual EU countries). Hence the reason behind the resignations, the constant postponement in activating article 50 etc.
May seems to be a shrewd woman and she showed that by appointing three key Brexiteers in three key roles (Fox, Boris and Davis). By doing so, she made the leaver camp directly responsible of the impending feck ups ie a sort of giving you plenty of rope to hang yourself with it. Once again it seems that the Tory politicians is putting their own interest ahead of national interest, which is exactly what the country does not need. For example putting an insolent rookie like Boris as foreign secretary is almost diabolical. This guy has no idea of foreign politics (May herself said so) and had basically insulted most of the most influential politicians around. How can the UK hope that this guy would be able to seal a trade deal which would benefit the UK?
Not to forget that team UK seem divided (Between the remainers and the leavers), they lack experience in terms of conducted trade deals and had been caught completely unprepared for this eventuality. That screams of rookie and desperation.
Everything from the negotiator's experience in conducted trade deals to how article 50 is set, right to how big their respective markets are, seems heavily stacked in favour of the EU and against team GB. Not to forget that while the UK is desperate to sign trade deals (they may soon lose access to the single market + 50 trade deals conducted by the EU on the UK behalf) the EU is not. Dont take me wrong each faction will get hurt by Brexit including the EU. However while each EU country can rely on one another + the trade deals already being sealed, the UK have nothing. That's put the UK under clear disadvantage.
If the UK fails to get a decent deal with the single market then it will make it completely reliant on deals from somewhere else. That means that it will become reliant to China's, the US's and India's whims. The EU may also be in position to throw spanners in the UK works by offering a fast track deal to Scotland or force borders cheques/visas on people from Northern Ireland (to the ROI) and Gibraltar's citizens. I acknowledge that at this point in time it doesn't sound likely. But as they say, hostility from one side will emcourage hostility from the other side and the EU's patience does have its limits.
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this
Has this been posted? Supposedly a Brexit brainstorm
Looks like the pieces of paper that come with a brand new folder.
Maybe he was handed the folder to look better for a photo op, but it doesn't look very good does it?
Looks like the pieces of paper that come with a brand new folder.
Maybe he was handed the folder to look better for a photo op, but it doesn't look very good does it?
Not sure whether it's the contents of Boris' file or the vision of Toriness that is Theresa but it's certainly getting David Davis hot.Has this been posted? Supposedly a Brexit brainstorm
Looks like the pieces of paper that come with a brand new folder.
Maybe he was handed the folder to look better for a photo op, but it doesn't look very good does it?
Has this been posted? Supposedly a Brexit brainstorm
?
i thought brainstorm had been branded politically incorrect and they were now "thought showers"
anyway if the best we can come up with several months after the vote is a brain storm then I suggest that the negotiations are not likely to be swift or effective
LOL
Course its only normal to take your time and build a team, What plans have the EU got in place for Brexit? None I imagine. They don't even have a plane for if a country like Greece left the EU and Eurozone. they said as much, so they are equally stupid in your opinion right?
You paint a really shitty picture of the EU in most your posts. Tit for tat, is that what they're about? Nice bunch, we should join
Not really. Let us turn the thing in the opposite direction. Do you think the UK will accept a deal were they have to pay a huge contribution to the EU, they would have to accept freedom of movement and they won't be able to access the single market? You know the answer. That doesn't mean that the British are nasty bunch who wants to spoil the EU people's day. They are simply not idiots.
Also the UK is already part of the EU and no one is forcing it to stay or leave. If they want to keep enjoying the benefits of the single market then they are rules they have to abide to. If they want to leave then it must leave the single market, then we'll survive either way. The EU's only (and I think reasonable) request is for the UK to activate article 50 as soon as possible to start the dances. If the UK wants a deal with the EU then it must formulate what they want for everyone to understand. Such requests may or may not be granted.
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You are mixing up taking your time and building a team, with having a plan. I'm not sure if you're doing it deliberately or not to divert attention away from the fact that it's clear there is no plan in place.
Whether the EU have a plan for Greece to leave the EU or not has nothing to do with whether we have a plan to leave the EU. Two wrongs don't make a right, I'm not sure why you're trying to say that it's okay for us to mess with our future with no plan whatsoever because hey look, the EU are the same. Yes they are both equally as stupid. They are also separate issues that should be dealt with separately.
I'd like to believe that you're more intelligent than to suggest that there's any way at all to make out that making massive changes to our futures and our childrens futures without having a plan in place is in any way a good idea. Because that is actually mental.
You edited your post
I expect UK will say "we want all this" and The EU will say "Well you cant". Then I expect lengthy negotiations that will see both sides claiming a victory and the UK ending up with something better than Camerons deal
In all honesty I don't really care I live in an EU country and stuff in the UK has become cheaper for me which is nice. What probably makes me appear biased is when I read garbage about how things are really fecked up / will be fecked up / certain famine, I don't hear any of this from friends and family back home that voted to remain, maybe its an internet thing.
Companies lay people off all the time but from now and till forever, each layoff will be because of Brexit and that's madness.
The timing of when it is triggered is perhaps the best leverage the UK has... a 2 year timeframe is going to be difficult to stick to to achieve a comprehensive exit arrangement - and whilst its an understandable negotiating tactic from the EU to say no negotiations till article 50 is triggered its equally valid from the UK point of view to say we could trigger it in the middle of a french / german election - or we could not trigger it for years and veto legiatlation in the meantime
I think it was a good first step that we did not take up the rotating presidency and hopefully wilst formal negotiations wont start till article 50 is triggered we can have good will on both sides and enter informal talks in good faith.
Personally Id rather we stayed but if we are going to go our best leverage in the negotiation is that we control the timing so I dont see us giving that up.
It may well be however that political pressure internally to be seen to be acting on the referendum result becomes impossible to ignore and we will see article 50 triggered sooner rather than later - but certainly not because it suits external interests
I suspect we will adopt most EU standards, remain part of the arrest warrent system etc - I would not be surprised to see us loose access to the EU for certain sectors (fisheries / agriculture for example) but we will fight pretty hard for services to be included ( even if we have to pay a bit more for that) - freedom of movement will be the big sticking point but I suspect something will be fudged together with a points type system but being from an EU country scores a fek load of points
Well the point I'm making is that people in everywhere rarely make contingency plans.
While Greek issue not connected to your exit vote, it'd make your current situation seem like fun. And there's no plan for it
That doesn't mean it's okay to be stupid because other people do it too. That's a really terrible argument.
Common sense would say that's entirely down to the fact that we haven't left yet.
I'm not making an argument, you seem to be doing that with yourself
Common sense would say it's rational thinking, their lives haven't changed at all in recent months
Which is because we haven't left the EU yet. Like I said it's common sense. Why would anything change, when nothing has changed yet?
Then consider me confused by your replies. Since I made a statement and you started to question it.
I understand your point and in many ways I share your views. For example I agree that time of when to activate article 50 is probably the best leverage the UK has. I also agree that the UK can become nasty (ie using the VETO) although that would play right in the hands of those who wants the UK screwed (the French right wing parties will use this as an excuse to scrap the Touquet treaty, Spain will make the Gibraltar's people life difficult, and Sturgeon might find new friends in Brussels). Not to forget that other countries whom the UK wants a trade deal with would be watching. The last thing the UK wants is giving the impression of being aholes with its trade mates especially since it already being perceived as a bit of a turncoat, which is also home for many xenophobics (whether that perception is correct or not isn't the issue here).
I also agree that both camps are doing their very best to be nice to one another. However I wonder how long that will last. Its evident that the EU have already made its line on the sand. Its ok to give the UK, some months, to come out with a plan (although that does frustrate the EU who cant believe that someone will do such choice without planning ahead) but its not ok to start any form of talks until article 50 is activated. The EU had also stated that the UK won't enjoy the benefits of the single market unless it also accept freedom of movement. It may sound mean but that's a cornerstone of the EU principles and the EU cant afford looking weak at this point.
What type of deal will the UK ends with? God only knows. The stakes here are ridiculously high. From one side there's alot of political careers on the line (May, Davis, Boris, Fox) and by the looks of it the Tories puts their own career ahead of national interest. On the other side the EU's very existence is on the line. Allies like the US and Canada had failed to get the deal they wanted with the EU and they have never turned their back towards Europe.
I suspect that the EU will try to use the same tactic they used with Tsipras ie they will delay the negotiations till the very end only to deliver a take it or leave deal to the UK which will be heavily staked towards Brussels. Considering that the UK is not Greece then I suspect it will refuse that deal and a hard Brexit will occur. Both the EU and the UK will sign stupid trade deals with other countries (US, Canada etc) to compensate to the loss (the EU will end up less screwed because of its bigger market which gives it more leverage) and the working class will suffer because of it. One thing is for certain. Both the EU and the UK will end up weaker out of this shitstorm.
The only winner here will be Farage who can now enjoy his generous MEP pension while making extra cash by being the populist parties poster boy (he's already whored himself for Trump). If shit hits fan in the UK he will simply move to Germany as his wife's citizenship is enough to provide him with freedom of movement. Considering he doesnt even have a tertiary education that quite an achievement for him
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I tend to edit my post because I tend to think in my language which is much more direct and lacks the Political correctness that the the English language provides. Hence I may sound like a cnut because of it which is clearly not what I want.
Both camps had lied throughout the campaign (the leaver camp being the underdog had lied more then the remain camp). I dont share some of the remain's camp tales of doom and gloom either. However as I said to sun_tzu what is certain is that both the EU and the UK will come out of this weaker. Bridges will be burnt, the EU will lose the 5th biggest economy in the world and the UK will lose unrestricted access to the biggest markets in the world. Some may say that the EU/UK will fudge a deal that will work for both. I doubt it. There's too much at stake for anyone of them to yield at this point. The UK doesn't want to lose face by backtracking and the EU seem fed up of the UK constant drama and reminder of how great the UK is and how important it is for the EU. As Tywin Lannister would say "Any man (ie nation) who must say, "I am the king" (ie Im important) is no true king". You don't hear the US saying that the EU must sign TTIP because the US is the largest economy in the world and the world's only super power left.
As I said the only winner here will be Farage who can now enjoy his generous MEP pension while making extra cash by being the populist parties poster boy (he's already whored himself for Trump). If shit hits fan in the UK he will simply move to Germany as his wife's citizenship is enough to provide him with freedom of movement. Considering he doesnt even have a tertiary education that quite an achievement for him
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1, Its not being misunderstood, you are trying to ignore the most important statistic given out in the whole debate by making spurious points about percentages of trade with various EU members states. The UK pays 8 billion a year to lose 68 billion a year in trade. The size of the market you could sell into isn't of any value in and of itself if you are clearly not selling into it. Now if the UK were not already inside the EU then you might be able to sell possible future growth in sales but the UK has been in the thing for over forty years.
2, So my view is the EU would because they sell more to the UK than the UK does to the EU and sales are price sensitive. The biggest problem in the negotiations will land straight in the EU negotiators lap once article 50 is triggered. Since the UK is quite happy with the status quo trade wise and can propose that and from an economic point of view in generating wealth right across Europe its the best way to go for both sides and all the people who live in the EU. Thats a strong argument and one the EU, if your thinking about it is correct, is on the wrong side of.
The EU unless I missed it doesn't have a position on what level of tariffs it wants to bring in yet. Once it suggests a rate and the sectors it plans to impose them on, then those sectors, businesses and industries will lobby their govt's to stop the bullshit and make a deal. In that sense the current stand off suits both sides but it won't hold.
3, Also, I think your view on world history corrupts your thinking on this matter as does your obsession with cherries and things some politicians say while campaigning.
This is total nonsense, along with the rest of your argument.
I did some digging on this. Eurotunnel is a french company. It will make the french govt pee its pants if UK threatened to close the tunnel due to illegal immigration.
In the worst case scenario the 6k illegals living in the calais jungle will come over to the UK. Big deal... we have 1.5m illegals in the UK right now. 6k will be a drop in the ocean. UK has practically nothing to lose from a french withdrawal from that treaty. While france has all to lose.
I don't understand what the counter proposal is compared to the current operation most of which the UK pays for?
It is a bilateral agreement not an EU one and it benefits both sides. The problem is they don't want to live in France but they have no claim to live in the UK and the French are falling down in dealing with it.