What is the highest priority for the DUP, to leave the EU or to maintain the GFA?
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What is the highest priority for the DUP, to leave the EU or to maintain the GFA?
This is the same dup who walked out of the talks that lead to the gfa right...
To leave the EU without a border.
They have to play to the gallery over this, we will not be seperated etc, but they would snatch any chance they could to bluff their way out if imo.
It's why they're always backing the no border / future technology rabbit hole. They're already blaming Ireland and the EU for the border going up. That's not posturing in my opinion, that's how they genuinely feel.
Plus the DUP were the only party that campaigned for people to vote against the GFA.
Hmm.
Well the only way to leave the EU and not have a border is to stay in the customs union, but they don't want this either.
The DUP and ERG have stabbed her in the back. She's a gonna in any case. Normal politics is fecked. Why would she want to be a part of it one moment after she gets her deal thru? If she does that she can say she's delivered Brexit.
She can give the ERG/DUP both the finger by offering Labour a GE for votes on her deal. From Labour's standpoint they get a tilt at becoming a government. Plus the WA is NOT the final destination - albeit a subservient route to it - and they will get to shape the future relationship (if they win). May could take that chance.
Her best outcome would be that Labour grab the opportunity, vote her deal over the line then lose the GE. She's going to be pariah in all scenarios so why not sell her soul to the devil to deliver her raison d'etre.
The DUP would love a hard border in the North. They are a far right unionist party who are shitting it that the North will soon be a Catholic majority. Once a border a goes up its very hard to take down again.
I'd love to know what will happen if one of the countries reject an extension
And we're really left with:-
No deal
Mays deal
Cancel article 50 (no time for a 2nd ref)
And we're really left with:-
No deal
Mays deal
Cancel article 50 (no time for a 2nd ref)
That's exactly how I see it.
As I have said the EU would happily live with 2 out of three of those choices. They might take that chance and ensure the request is refused. People like Orban may block it anyway.
Depending on the reason for the extension rejection, the UK could make a last adjustment in May's deal that would be followed by an emergency EU council summit. It's difficult to tell without more information about the reasons behind the extension and the related rejection.
I agree she's a goner when the final decision occurs.
As you say the WA is not the final destination but it seems to be lost on parliament, the future relationship afterwards can be moulded if the deal gets over the line. Going against it is only for remainers or no dealers.
she will announce her departure pretty quickly though I suspect she will serve out the time whilst Gove, Johnson, Mogg and probably another handful (Javid, Hunt, Rudd etc) have a big bun fight probably ending with with theor appointment at the conservative conference in september / October... at which point we will probably start saber rattling over the actual free trade deal before inevitably gashing it all up
May's deal still needs an extension, if only a short technical one to pass legislation, if there is no extension of any kind its;
No Deal
or
Cancel A50
Which is where we came in with the original referendum, Leave or Remain!!
It's the fecking delay thats infuriating, there's just no need for another several days to pass without any progress.
Shambles...
We've got plenty of time!
I really think that if it ends up being No Deal then an extension is a must.
It'd at least allow the UK & the EU to get things in place so that it can sort of work. If it happens this month I can see a fairly chaotic transition and scenes similar to Fyre Festival taking place.
It'd need to be at least a 12 month extension imo but at least the UK can begin to arrange some trade deals and maybe even a trading arrangement with the EU.
It'd at least allow the UK & the EU to get things in place so that it can sort of work. If it happens this month I can see a fairly chaotic transition and scenes similar to Fyre Festival taking place.
It'd need to be at least a 12 month extension imo but at least the UK can begin to arrange some trade deals and maybe even a trading arrangement with the EU.
All going well then...
That would likely be impossible for her to deliver. The fixed term parliament act provides for only two ways in which an early general election can be called. Either the government has to lose a 'no confidence' vote and Corbyn has already tried that and lost or two thirds of the members have to agree to dissolving parliament and its unlikely that a couple of hundred conservative MPs are going to agree to that.
Given that the talk seems to be that if a deal such as May is trying to get through can be struck then our dear Mr Hammond could well have 30 billion plus to give away in the budget I cannot see the conservatives letting go of that juicy morsel without a fight.
That's what the transition is about which only happens if the UK sign the withdrawal agreement. The trading arrangement with the UK/EU will take many years.
2/3 of 650mp's would be 433
Except there are 7 sinn Fein and therefore 429 MP's required
Presuming all the opposition parties except the dup vote for the election that gives 322 votes so in reality they need just over 100 conservatives to vote for the election... And if may calls the election I think she would have over a third of her party at least back it.
If she and the party feel they can increase their majority they might decide it's a dice worth rolling... And if they do I think the 2/3 is pretty much a formality
I can't imagine any of them leading trade talks which will take years. But it's not only with EU they've got to negotiate. Where are they going to find all these hundreds of skilled negotiators?
Presumably they will be paying skilled negotiators signifigantly over 30k a year so we should bring some of the EU team over ... They seem to be doing a far better job than our lot
I certainly haven't seen any recently in the HoC.
The fixed term parliament act is a load of bollocks. No PM ever called an election without a reason, and all they need is a portion of their own party to agree with them, and if they didn't have support they wouldn't be party leader in the first place.
Oh dear do I really have to spell everything out in 'Jack and Jill' format. I suppose I must. To begin with I was only responding to Honest Johns idea that all May needs to do is to say to Corbyn that she will call a GE providing that Labour support her WA. Now that would be irrespective of standings in the polls etc. Under those circumstances I cannot see how the heck she would get in excess of 100 of her side to support her. Yes PMs call elections when they have a reason that goes without saying and the reason is always that they think they can win.
And just as an aside 434 members have to call for parliament to be dissolved for it to happen. All seats (650) are counted towards the 2/3rds majority irrespective of whether any of them are vacant or not taken up. 2/3rds is actually 433 and a bit but the bit is rounded up thus making 434.
Time for me to go back to sleep again until things calm down in another 2 or more years.
Looks like you slept through the last general election too then.
Do I really have to
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...g-intention-conservatives-40-labour-31-3-4-ma
I mean show me a recent important whipped vote where a government hasn't managed to get at least a hundred votes... On second thought yawn off for a couple of years
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One thing that the last few months has told us is that we are not ready to make an orderly exit from the EU.
On that basis and assuming the EU agree then delaying the leaving date is the only thing that makes sense at the moment.
I do believe that a couple of months delay may well not be long enough as I believe that the Tories will want to replace TM.
I have no idea who should be the next leader and to be honest I don't really care.
Leaving the EU was never going to be even remotely as easy as we were lead to believe which actually should not be a surprise.
No one has ever done this before. That coupled with the total lack of forethought or planning has resulted in the terribly chaotic shambles.
We don't need a 2nd referendum and we certainly don't need a GA.
What we need is a new leader who is able to organise proper cross party unity and established a common purpose built on a clearly defined and planned exit.
Instead of a big bang type exit, maybe a staged exit would be less problematic.
On that basis and assuming the EU agree then delaying the leaving date is the only thing that makes sense at the moment.
I do believe that a couple of months delay may well not be long enough as I believe that the Tories will want to replace TM.
I have no idea who should be the next leader and to be honest I don't really care.
Leaving the EU was never going to be even remotely as easy as we were lead to believe which actually should not be a surprise.
No one has ever done this before. That coupled with the total lack of forethought or planning has resulted in the terribly chaotic shambles.
We don't need a 2nd referendum and we certainly don't need a GA.
What we need is a new leader who is able to organise proper cross party unity and established a common purpose built on a clearly defined and planned exit.
Instead of a big bang type exit, maybe a staged exit would be less problematic.
A new leader like Boris eh?
Long extension, like 10 years, and just forget the whole thing!
The obvious way to solve this is to have a second referendum with the same choices: 1 Remain 2 Leave (out of everything).
It's the same choice we were given 2 1/2 years ago, but parliament doesn't want to exercise the will of the people.
Personally i think that this time around remain might win just, but parliament would be shitting themselves praying for a remain vote.
It's the same choice we were given 2 1/2 years ago, but parliament doesn't want to exercise the will of the people.
Personally i think that this time around remain might win just, but parliament would be shitting themselves praying for a remain vote.
Why can Mrs May and the government have 3 goes trying to win her deal and a 2nd referendum would be anti-democratic?
That's the question we're all asking. It's madness.
I'm pretty sure our pocket dictator doesn't care about the UK. He has zero reason to block an extension. With the EPP seriously considering kicking Fidesz out, they'll probably go along with whatever the Germans want in this particular matter.
Not really.
There is a complete difference between a vote in the HoC and the whole country voting in a referendum.
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