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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I would count yourself lucky (or unlucky) if even one of the promises are fulfilled

I was being generous but you're right. Immigration might fall though as the economy gets hit. :angel:

I might be being slightly optimistic, but I can defiantly see us not leaving the EU as we are still in the EU for at least 2 years and as more things happen like this, things change.

I don't care. I honestly hope Boris becomes PM. I want a giant bright light shone on his incompetence. I want him, Gove and Farage to go to the EU and try and get everything they asked for and get rejected out of hand. I want Boris to pass and defend budgets and have to explain why the NHS is losing funding and immigration isn't reducing as much as he promised. I want every populist in Europe to have their ridicolous claims tested.
 
I don't care. I honestly hope Boris becomes PM. I want a giant bright light shone on his incompetence. I want him, Gove and Farage to go to the EU and try and get everything they asked for and get rejected out of hand. I want Boris to pass and defend budgets and have to explain why the NHS is losing funding and immigration isn't reducing as much as he promised. I want every populist in Europe to have their ridicolous claims tested.

To be honest, this would be poetic justice.
 
I was being generous but you're right. Immigration might fall though as the economy gets hit. :angel:



I don't care. I honestly hope Boris becomes PM. I want a giant bright light shone on his incompetence. I want him, Gove and Farage to go to the EU and try and get everything they asked for and get rejected out of hand. I want Boris to pass and defend budgets and have to explain why the NHS is losing funding and immigration isn't reducing as much as he promised. I want every populist in Europe to have their ridicolous claims tested.

There will be a new boogeyman to blame unfortunately which will let the likes of Boris get off scot free.
 
I don't care. I honestly hope Boris becomes PM. I want a giant bright light shone on his incompetence. I want him, Gove and Farage to go to the EU and try and get everything they asked for and get rejected out of hand. I want Boris to pass and defend budgets and have to explain why the NHS is losing funding and immigration isn't reducing as much as he promised. I want every populist in Europe to have their ridicolous claims tested.
That sounds pretty shitty. I hope that doesn't happen.
 
Slight correction from your perspective - Vote remain and feck up thousands of small business owners who pullute the environment and not adhere to standards provided by European firms.
You can't expect people that have certain personal interest to vote the other way. It makes no sense. Of course you'll put your family first. You are fighting a losing battle if you try to overturn those voters.

I don't know this case but I have many other examples of other country not UK that had to fill a lot of papers and needless bureaucracy to fit into EU regulations. And believe me those papers doesn't improve the quality of the final product one bit.
 
So vote remain and feck up thousands of small business owner lives? Where does it end?

I'm sure you're being honest but...

BT-AJ210A_SMALL_16U_20160612172706.jpg

http://www.wsj.com/articles/small-british-companies-are-less-wary-of-an-exit-from-eu-1465783020
 
Wow. This is some serious bullshit. How are they going to know under what regulations all their food is grown or what standards were maintained in building their car? It's hard enough with the regulations!

And when matey boy's shitty business pours his motor oil into the drains to save a few pennies, is he then going to buy bottled water so his kids don't have to drink from the taps while he smokes his cigar and laughs at everyone else?

If you genuinely believe what you just said you're a terrible person with no understanding of society.

I'm a leftist precisely because of what I described in that post.
If his family's business didn't take advantage of lax regulations, their competitors will, and the family will suffer.
 
I was being generous but you're right. Immigration might fall though as the economy gets hit. :angel:
.

Nothing is going to change with regard immigration until at least 2019 when and if the divorce is sorted, and as the Uk need the EU to trade it's likely the immigration laws will probably remain unchanged anyway.
At least in the short term the economy is going to suffer, during that time until 2019 there could be hordes of immigrants coming in to beat the doors being locked behind them - plus a stream of panicking ageing expats returning to the UK. So the immigration Brexit was trying to reduce could easily increase because they "won"
 
You can't expect people that have certain personal interest to vote the other way. It makes no sense. Of course you'll put your family first. You are fighting a losing battle if you try to overturn those voters.

I don't know this case but I have many other examples of other country not UK that had to fill a lot of papers and needless bureaucracy to fit into EU regulations. And believe me those papers doesn't improve the quality of the final product one bit.

Well then you're argument becomes whether or not a referendum is appropriate or not. Seeing as most would put their own selfish point of view ahead of the greater good. I mean it would be great not have regulations, but they're there for a purpose. If they're not, it's up to our representative democracy to overturn it.
 
I'm a leftist precisely because of what I described in that post.
If his family's business didn't take advantage of lax regulations, their competitors will, and the family will suffer.

Eh? You don't want to protect people from dangerous or unfit products because otherwise they'll what, move to China and get poisoned there? I really have no idea what you think you're saying.

You know even the Chinese are fed up with polluted air, shit products and corrupt business practices and are massively regulating now right? China's next diesel vehicle emissions legislation is set to be similarly strict to Euro 4 or 5 as it stands (we're currently on Euro 6 in Europe). Quite possibly it will even overtake Europe's in terms of strictness within a couple of decades, just as the American ones already are doing.

If we start deregulating everything we'll be flying in the face of what pretty much every other nation on earth is doing right now.
 
Well then you're argument becomes whether or not a referendum is appropriate or not. Seeing as most would put their own selfish point of view ahead of the greater good. I mean it would be great not have regulations, but they're there for a purpose. If they're not, it's up to our representative democracy to overturn it.

It depends what kind of regulations are there and what is the law that issues them. It's normal when you have a union of many cultures and different nations to have issues with a universal law. Some regulations are issued because of bad practices in other countries but generally are an obstacle for others if you know what I mean.

Otherwise the bolded one is certainly true. However the issue would be - which political party will disregard the vote of the nation and turn against the majority. It's basically a political suicide in a democratic country.
 
Eh? You don't want to protect people from dangerous or unfit products because otherwise they'll what, move to China and get poisoned there? I really have no idea what you think you're saying.

You know even the Chinese are fed up with polluted air, shit products and corrupt business practices and are massively regulating now right? China's next diesel vehicle emissions legislation is set to be similarly strict to Euro 4 or 5 as it stands (we're currently on Euro 6 in Europe). Quite possibly it will even overtake Europe's in terms of strictness within a couple of decades, just as the American ones already are doing.

If we start deregulating everything we'll be flying in the face of what pretty much every other nation on earth is doing right now.

I do want stronger regulations for exactly all these reasons. But while we live in a capitalist world, it's important to acknowledge that "right" and "wrong" have different meanings for businesses and other people.
For example, let's remove the complication of children and say I'm a lone adult who owns an oil company. Say I'm 50 years old. The worst effects of global warming will take place after I die. Lobbying is legal in most countries, and lobbying influence is directly proportional to the money I put in. Why shouldn't I lobby for barriers for renewable energy, for lower taxes and better subsidies for my company? Why shouldn't I donate to politicians who say climate science is bogus and that no more money needs to be put into research on climate change?
 
It depends what kind of regulations are there and what is the law that issues them. It's normal when you have a union of many cultures and different nations to have issues with a universal law. Some regulations are issued because of bad practices in other countries but generally are an obstacle for others if you know what I mean.

Otherwise the bolded one is certainly true. However the issue would be - which political party will disregard the vote of the nation and turn against the majority. It's basically a political suicide in a democratic country.

You think something that makes a business more profitable in one country wouldn't be done in another if it was permitted? All regulatory bodies pass bad regulations from time to time, usually because of unintended consequences but having universal agreement across the EU almost always makes the regulation stronger as it is reviewed and agreed by more people.

It may be that it takes slightly longer to react to change with this process I suppose, but then at least the right decision is usually eventually made. This is often not the case in somewhere like the US where lobby groups and politicians can hold things up for years or even block them completely if big business wants them to. The European consumer protection legislation is infinitely better than most of its American counterpart.

Then of course there is the really obvious benefit of having only one lot of civil servants to pay, not 28, and only one set of regulations to follow, not 28.
 
Watching some of the US Satirical shows and man are we the greatest embarassment in the world right now.
 
I do want stronger regulations for exactly all these reasons. But while we live in a capitalist world, it's important to acknowledge that "right" and "wrong" have different meanings for businesses and other people.
For example, let's remove the complication of children and say I'm a lone adult who owns an oil company. Say I'm 50 years old. The worst effects of global warming will take place after I die. Lobbying is legal in most countries, and lobbying influence is directly proportional to the money I put in. Why shouldn't I lobby for barriers for renewable energy, for lower taxes and better subsidies for my company? Why shouldn't I donate to politicians who say climate science is bogus and that no more money needs to be put into research on climate change?

Because you're not a cnut?

I really don't see how that's relevant though, it's clear that society has advanced by regulation over the millennia, even if it also sometimes gets in the way. Deregulating is not a good reason to vote for leaving the EU.

1. Leaving the EU would only result in more complicated legislation.

2. Deregulation is shit for society and the environment, and hence ultimately the economy. If an individual doesn't accept this, it doesn't mean he should be allowed to - for the good of everyone else.
This is, incidentally the same reason that pandering to financiers and privatisation is such a bad idea. If you take money from the poor they won't spend and the economy suffers. Eventually nobody wins.
 
Say I'm 50 years old. The worst effects of global warming will take place after I die. Lobbying is legal in most countries, and lobbying influence is directly proportional to the money I put in. Why shouldn't I lobby for barriers for renewable energy, for lower taxes and better subsidies for my company? Why shouldn't I donate to politicians who say climate science is bogus and that no more money needs to be put into research on climate change?

I genuinely struggle to see where you're coming from. Are you looking for a purely material (economic) reason why that person should think about something beyond his own, personal interests?

It doesn't exist – there is no such reason.

But what on earth does that prove? If the same person was given the opportunity to hold slaves, legally, why should he not do that? It would be lucrative for him.

It may be that you're trying to make a subtle point here, one that I'm missing – but, well, I'm missing it.
 
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I was being generous but you're right. Immigration might fall though as the economy gets hit. :angel:



I don't care. I honestly hope Boris becomes PM. I want a giant bright light shone on his incompetence. I want him, Gove and Farage to go to the EU and try and get everything they asked for and get rejected out of hand. I want Boris to pass and defend budgets and have to explain why the NHS is losing funding and immigration isn't reducing as much as he promised. I want every populist in Europe to have their ridicolous claims tested.

The hope that this will actually happen is the only positive crumb I can find from this whole debacle, although I suspect a lot the spearheads of the leave campaign will publically be keeping a low profile during the coming years (although possibly not Johnson and Farrage to be fair).

What I also find striking has been the retraction of promises made by the leave campaign, as well as the denial of the immediate negative effects on sterling, on the financial markets, financial institutions, UK's credit rating, the popularity & standing of the United Kingdom in the world, etc etc.
Probably the most worrying thing is the political crisis the referendum result has created in the UK. (Not to mention the likely break up of the United Kingdom Brexit is likely to cause.) Furthermore, I think its absolutely disgusting that the government or leave campaigners made no contingency plans or strategies what so ever before the referendum for the scenario that Britain voted to leave. This also is another indication of the pack of lies sold by the leave campaign and a complete lack of foresight shown by the government.
And to put the cherry on the cake, the referendum result also seems to be judged as an approval of racist behavior by parts of the British public.

But, apart from that, it hasn't been a bad few days for the United Kingdom... :wenger:
 
Because you're not a cnut?

I really don't see how that's relevant though, it's clear that society has advanced by regulation over the millennia, even if it also sometimes gets in the way. Deregulating is not a good reason to vote for leaving the EU.

1. Leaving the EU would only result in more complicated legislation.

2. Deregulation is shit for society and the environment, and hence ultimately the economy. If an individual doesn't accept this, it doesn't mean he should be allowed to - for the good of everyone else.
This is, incidentally the same reason that pandering to financiers and privatisation is such a bad idea. If you take money from the poor they won't spend and the economy suffers. Eventually nobody wins.


You're preaching to the converted. I agree on all of this.
But "you're not a cnut" isn't a good enough reason, and for this to work, everyone* has to decide not to be a cnut or affected by money, which is unrealistic. If people did help think of consequences to everyone, especially future generations, in all their decisions, it would be a quite different world.

*Competitors not taking advantage of loopholes and putting less unethical firms out of business, for example.

I genuinely struggle to see where you're coming from. Are you looking for a purely material (economic) reason why that person should think about something beyond his own, personal interests?

It doesn't exist – there is no such reason.

But what on earth does that prove? If the same person was given the opportunity to hold slaves, legally, why should he not do that? It would be lucrative for him.

It may be that you're trying to make a subtle point here, one that I'm missing – but, well, I'm missing it.

All I'm saying is that genuine democracy in a capitalistic world will always have contradictions.
I don't claim to know the solution to them.
 
You think something that makes a business more profitable in one country wouldn't be done in another if it was permitted? All regulatory bodies pass bad regulations from time to time, usually because of unintended consequences but having universal agreement across the EU almost always makes the regulation stronger as it is reviewed and agreed by more people.

It may be that it takes slightly longer to react to change with this process I suppose, but then at least the right decision is usually eventually made. This is often not the case in somewhere like the US where lobby groups and politicians can hold things up for years or even block them completely if big business wants them to. The European consumer protection legislation is infinitely better than most of its American counterpart.

Then of course there is the really obvious benefit of having only one lot of civil servants to pay, not 28, and only one set of regulations to follow, not 28.
It depends mate. Look at Switzerland. You still might have all the benefits of the free trade, free moving of people and so forth even adopt some laws but have your own legislature.

You don't have universal solutions because each local market is different. Some cost of goods or manufacturers are not competitive within the local market simply because the cost of production is higher when you take into consideration the labor force and the standard of living. So it's tough to draw the line especially if you try to enforce universal laws and regulations.

Sometimes as a local manufacturer you pass regulations that you have already fulfilled by local regulators with different name. Sure it is fixed after some time and generally mistakes are made and fixed, but during that time it's a disadvantage for locals who already have high quality products and goods.

No system is perfect, I can understand where some are going when it comes to fulfilling EU regulations and generally most of them are not a bad thing, but still that is valid point in some case so many voters that have this personal interest is perfectly normal to go behind that campaign.

The problem is - most that do vote for Leave are not educated to the effects of the vote, don't really care, or are mislead by unrealistic expectations.

However it is still democratic if you are an idiot to vote, so unless the referendum is rigged you really can't do anything about it.
 
They are a business that don't trade within the EU (except the UK itself) yet have to adhere to EU legislation on stuff like waste management and have to stick to strict rules on the way things are produced etc. It costs them more than it should have to basically.
They are a business that don't trade within the EU (except the UK itself) yet have to adhere to EU legislation on stuff like waste management and have to stick to strict rules on the way things are produced etc. It costs them more than it should have to basically.

Regulations only cripple if your competitors have lower standards to follow. The EU creates a level playing field.
 
But "you're not a cnut" isn't a good enough reason, and for this to work, everyone has to decide not to be a cnut or affected by money, which is unrealistic.

Well, in a sense the history of laws and civil rights is - precisely - the institutionalization of various “don't be a cnut” principles.

Democracy in a capitalistic world, as you put it, can't stop every cnut out there - but that's hardly an argument against trying.
 
It depends mate. Look at Switzerland. You still might have all the benefits of the free trade, free moving of people and so forth even adopt some laws but have your own legislature.

You don't have universal solutions because each local market is different. Some cost of goods or manufacturers are not competitive within the local market simply because the cost of production is higher when you take into consideration the labor force and the standard of living. So it's tough to draw the line especially if you try to enforce universal laws and regulations.

Sometimes as a local manufacturer you pass regulations that you have already fulfilled by local regulators with different name. Sure it is fixed after some time and generally mistakes are made and fixed, but during that time it's a disadvantage for locals who already have high quality products and goods.

No system is perfect, I can understand where some are going when it comes to fulfilling EU regulations and generally most of them are not a bad thing, but still that is valid point in some case so many voters that have this personal interest is perfectly normal to go behind that campaign.

The problem is - most that do vote for Leave are not educated to the effects of the vote, don't really care, or are mislead by unrealistic expectations.

However it is still democratic if you are an idiot to vote, so unless the referendum is rigged you really can't do anything about it.

I'm really no expert but I'd hazard a guess that there are very few EU manufacturing or farming regulations that Switzerland doesn't follow. There may well be a whole load of banking ones and the like that are different as their economy is fundamentally based on being an opaque tax haven. Presumably this is the vague direction Farage has or had in his head for us.

You must also take into account the fact that their laws and regulations have evolved alongside the EU's since the 70s, ours would have to be entirely rewritten in 2 years! Madness.
 
I'm really no expert but I'd hazard a guess that there are very few EU manufacturing or farming regulations that Switzerland doesn't follow. There may well be a whole load of banking ones and the like that are different as their economy is fundamentally based on being an opaque tax haven. Presumably this is the vague direction Farage has or had in his head for us.

You must also take into account the fact that their laws and regulations have evolved alongside the EU's since the 70s, ours would have to be entirely rewritten in 2 years! Madness.

Nah I don't think all terms will be renegotiated with the EU for 2 years. You'll have the next elections, probably couple of months before negotiations even start. I doubt the EU would want a fast resolution as other countries might follow suit. They'd like to keep it as a precedent.

For the short term there will be a lot of problems and the economy will take a hit(EU as well as it's losing like 15% of it), but it doesn't necessary mean that it will all be doom and gloom. It really depends on how the relationship will develop.
 
Nah I don't think all terms will be renegotiated with the EU for 2 years. You'll have the next elections, probably couple of months before negotiations even start. I doubt the EU would want a fast resolution as other countries might follow suit. They'd like to keep it as a precedent.

For the short term there will be a lot of problems and the economy will take a hit(EU as well as it's losing like 15% of it), but it doesn't necessary mean that it will all be doom and gloom. It really depends on how the relationship will develop.

What won't be doom and gloom in the short term?
 
When did the UK morph into the third reich? Only matter of time before I get some racial abuse on public transport :lol:
 
What won't be doom and gloom in the short term?
I mean overall, after the effects of the vote die down a bit. In the short term the currency will take a hit and some foreign companies will rethink their position there, unemployment will go up so yeah there will be a lot of negative results off that vote, but it's normal with a significant change like that.
 
I mean overall, after the effects of the vote die down a bit. In the short term the currency will take a hit and some foreign companies will rethink their position there, unemployment will go up so yeah there will be a lot of negative results off that vote, but it's normal with a significant change like that.

So in the short term, all we have is doom and gloom and "MAYBE" overall after the effects of the vote die down, there might not be some doom and gloom. Great.
 
So in the short term, all we have is doom and gloom and "MAYBE" overall after the effects of the vote die down, there might not be some doom and gloom. Great.

Exactly, it's all so fecking needless. As I said before, playing Russian roulette with the economy after only just slightly recovering from a global recession. It's insanity, sheer lunacy. I don't think I will ever understand it, ever.
 
I mean overall, after the effects of the vote die down a bit. In the short term the currency will take a hit and some foreign companies will rethink their position there, unemployment will go up so yeah there will be a lot of negative results off that vote, but it's normal with a significant change like that.

Only, that. And not to forget the political turmoil. Oh, the break up of the U.K. And the negative impact on how the rest of the World views the U.K. And the impact on the financial markets. The distraction caused to the government and civil services. And on the list goes.

But apart from that I've never felt so optimistic about the state of the U.K.! :wenger:
 
So in the short term, all we have is doom and gloom and "MAYBE" overall after the effects of the vote die down, there might not be some doom and gloom. Great.
Nothing is given might be for the good of the economy might be bad in the long term, in the short term it won't be good that is for sure. Not going to lie, going out at this point for me is a bad idea. But then I can understand some of the valid points that the other camp is making(a month ago I was struggling to find any, mind).

The populist ones are crap tho indeed. Controlling the immigration - good luck with that.

The worst thing is you won't know for sure the effects of going out before you actually do that. I fully expect to be another referendum in 3-4 years time after you renegotiate the terms with the EU and after the vote is enforced leading to probably different results.

The way I see it is to have another populist vote for the next election and the winning party to overturn the results of the vote. I don't see it happening tho.
 
I can't believe that anyone can be so deluded to say that so far the referendum result has been nothing else but a disaster. I cannot remember the country being in such a crisis in my living memory.
 
I think once art 50 is triggered then you're out and going to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
A general election where certain parties make it clear that a vote for them means ignoring/overturning the vote might work in theory, but the next ones are scheduled for 2020, aren't they? I can't see anyone waiting that long, because of the effect that this uncertainty seems to have on investments and because the remaining EU is probably going to try to pressure Britain to resolve this mess one way or the other.
 
Only, that. And not to forget the political turmoil. Oh, the break up of the U.K. And the negative impact on how the rest of the World views the U.K. And the impact on the financial markets. The distraction caused to the government and civil services. And on the list goes.

But apart from that I've never felt so optimistic about the state of the U.K.! :wenger:

2 years ago the Swiss voted for immigration quotas which caused immediate clash with the EU and even with some bilateral agreements between the Swiss and the EU. Talks are still ongoing. It's too early to predict the exact consequences and it will be a long process. The financial markets will take a hit naturally and there will be a political crisis that's a given, however it's still one of the biggest economies that we're talking about here.

I think once art 50 is triggered then you're out and going to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
A general election where certain parties make it clear that a vote for them means ignoring/overturning the vote might work in theory, but the next ones are scheduled for 2020, aren't they? I can't see anyone waiting that long, because of the effect that this uncertainty seems to have on investments and because the remaining EU is probably going to try to pressure Britain to resolve this mess one way or the other.

Cameron resigned. There will be new elections in couple of months time. It's up to the new party to decide if the country will follow suit or go against the vote. After that if they decide to trigger article 50 it will be a long negotiation process before they are out and during that time everything will be on hold in terms of actual resolutions.

If someone is looking for positives in the next couple of years that simply won't happen. If there will be positives of the UK leaving the union it's not for the short term.
 
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but the next ones are scheduled for 2020, aren't they?
PM has resigned, Labour and Conservatives undergoing their biggest crises in memorable history. At this rate, there could be a general election by the end of the week.
 
PM has resigned, Labour and Conservatives undergoing their biggest crises in memorable history. At this rate, there could be a general election by the end of the week.


Isn't that precisely the reason why they wouldn't want a GE right now?