2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Raoul said:
Gavin is the top Dem for 2028 among the bookies right now. Harris is tied with her but I think we can safely eliminate her after two consecutive calamitous failures culminating in the Dems actually losing the popular vote to an orange traffic cone.

It will probably wind up a contest between Gavin, Pete, Josh Shapiro, and someone like Andy Bashear. I'd like to say Whittmer would also be an option but given the PTSD of having watched Hillary and Harris crash and burn badly, I think they will stick with a male candidate.

Unsurprisingly, Vance is leading the odds for the Rs in 28, with the likes of DeSantis, Haley, and Youngkin probably also in the mix.
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The dems should run a mile from Gavin, unless Trump really fecks the US up by 2028.

Californians are seen overwhelmingly as out of touch which resonates with the majority of working class voters hence why I suspect this Harris result across the country.
 
The United said:
Gavin must be rubbing his hands although there is a possible that Dems leadership will rig it because they think he was too "out" there before all of these.
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Which Gavin? Newsom? Haha. Might be the biggest republican landslide ever if that happens. California is not the US.
 
Adisa said:
Don’t know why we are over analysing this result when the evidence is right before our eyes. People feel worse off. Their pockets are leaner. They take their anger out on the administration when that happens. It’s the same thing that happened here and in every other functioning democracy.
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Because people have a very short memory. The have voted for the bloke who played an huge part in the terrible handling of the pandemic, which eventually led to high inflation.
 
B. Munich said:
If true, that would be even worse!
If the US officially leaves NATO, the remaining countries at least will know what they will be up against.
If the US stays, but if an attack happens, won't honor article 5 that's leaving their allies in a false security. This would be betrayal.
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Third option will never happen. If there is an attack on a NATO member and they invoke article 5 there's no viable reason for a veto from another member.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
The dems should run a mile from Gavin, unless Trump really fecks the US up by 2028.

Californians are seen overwhelmingly as out of touch which resonates with the majority of working class voters hence why I suspect this Harris result across the country.
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Kamala didn't lose because she's Californian, she lost because she can't communicate well and didn't have answers to the border/immigration, the economy, and trans issues that were satisfactory (and maybe some misogyny when it comes to macho cultures like Latino males). This type of thinking you have here is really a fallacy and something that will hurt the Democrats more than help because 1) Democrats need to energize their base and some middle of America centrist Dem won't do that and 2) Reps are going to call any Dem candidate a leftist Marxist woke crazy person so by eliminating your strongest candidates, you're just falling into the Republican trap.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
As much as I like Pete, he won't stand a chance, based on what we say America won't elect a gay man. As much as I dislike Shapiro, he won't stand a chance either with his overly rehearsed copycat Obama speaking pattern. It's going to be either Newsom or someone rising up, maybe Beshear, I haven't heard him speak enough to know if he has a chance. The Dems can't afford to put anyone but their best male orator up at this point and that's clearly Newsom followed by Pete. Newsom/Whitmer is likely their strongest ticket at the moment but things can change.
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Agreed on Newsom/Whitmer . Probably the mosts viable ticket. I do think Shapiro will make a case as well and suspect it may come down to him or Gavin to lead the ticket. As for Pete, he's simply too good a communicator to not be in the mix.
 
The United said:
But I wonder if it’s actually the Democrats who might need to rethink their approach—perhaps by moving slightly more right? The reality is, the country has shown strong support for the right-wing populist figure.
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It's the usual problem of all left-leaning parties everywhere. Apparently representing actual leftist values makes you unelectable - but by moving to the right, you accept that the opponent dictates the terms. And if you move right, what exactly makes you different from that right-wing populist? He's better at being right-wing.
 
I see all this talk about the democratic party needing to move to the right, but that completely ignores that when offered Dem vs. Rep policies on key topics the country, including a large portion of Rep, chose the dem policies. In my mind it has almost nothing to do with actual policies and everything to do with who and how the messaging is conducted. Most people are not political junkies and consume their candidate news, if at all, in short clips on social media. If the dems don't adjust to this new paradigm, and it is only going to shift further that way, then 2024 is going to be repeated in 26 and 28 and so on.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
The dems should run a mile from Gavin, unless Trump really fecks the US up by 2028.

Californians are seen overwhelmingly as out of touch which resonates with the majority of working class voters hence why I suspect this Harris result across the country.
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Harris didn't lose because she's from California. She lost because she was simply never a viable candidate, which has been born out by the results of 2019 and now 2024. When you lose badly twice in a row, it has nothing to do with which state you're from and everything to do with simply not being good enough to win.
 
Morning after and I still don't get it.
Voting for a right leaning populist candidate in today's world I can reasonably understand.

Voting for a guy with the long, long, long list of assault on the very fabric of democracy and everyone under it is something I will never ever understand.
 
Sky1981 said:
Maybe they agree with that sentiment? It's like saying the Westerners are coloniat and slave trader? It's not politically correct but i dont many Europeans would stop voting because of it. As it showns from the elections

While Harris talks a good talk but forgets about them past the elections.

If Trump called Indonesian is full of stupid people i bet he'd get more vote from Indonesian american immigrants than the other way around.

Some might agree and they dont think of it ae an insult because they don't see the description as aimed towards them.

Funny i know but votes dont lie
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Latinos went overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton and she lost. They certainly didn't like it back then, but those rhetorics activated just enough low propensity wwc voters for Trump to sneak it with Comey's help.

The point is these post-mortem or autopsy are hardly ever correct. If there's an actual political consultant who can predict trends and come up with effective messaging strategy, certainly it would be a lightning in a bottle type of event. There's really scant evidence that whatever Dems come up with will be the correct strategy in the aftermath of this loss, their best shot is still hoping for an economic downturn that coincides with the next election and/or voters getting fed up of Trump once he's ever present in their life again (which is unlikely to happen, since he probably win reelection last time but for Covid)
 
Sky1981 said:
Nope. But you dont need much. There are multipliers. A pissed off voters would be more likely to influence, debate, argue with others to join him.

1 angry deplorables would meant his preaching to his buddies and so on

When the margin are slim every bit counts.
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Sure, but the actual effect of that is not really verifiable and you could make an argument, just as hypothetical, that walking on eggshells around conservatives just emboldens their rhetoric and deenergises the base.
I find the standards that Democrats get at times with messaging are a bit weird when pseudonymous posts on redcafe or comments of a retired politician nearly 10 years ago are supposed to be relevant. Meanwhile Republican campaign can be filled with nothing but contempt for democratic voters and constant insane comments on the candidates and that disappears after few days every, single time and seemingly moves precisely nobody.
Civility is itself valuable, but constant framing it in electoral calculus feels like getting the worst of both worlds every single time.
 
Raoul said:
Harris didn't lose because she's from California. She lost because she was simply never a viable candidate, which has been born out by the results of 2019 and now 2024. When you lose badly twice in a row, it has nothing to do with which state you're from and everything to do with simply not being good enough to win.
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Because she's a woman?
 
Raoul said:
Agreed on Newsom/Whitmer . Probably the mosts viable ticket. I do think Shapiro will make a case as well and suspect it may come down to him or Gavin to lead the ticket. As for Pete, he's simply too good a communicator to not be in the mix.
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Shapiro just comes off as so fake to me with his Obama schtick, I can't imagine he performs well overall because he feels like the type of centrist Dem that has no real passion and just tries to play the polls which is a losing strategy imo. Pete is a good communicator but sadly I just don't see America ready to elect a gay man after last night.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
How does it affect you or anyone how someone actually identifies though? If they feel comfortable within themselves then why not let them. They're not hurting anyone so it's difficult to understand the rage.
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RedC said:
People voting based on stuff like private company DEI initiatives are beyond saving. The Republicans spend way more time going on about this stuff than anyone does implementing it also.
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erikcred said:
I see pronouns on email signatures all the time. Takes a grand total of zero additional seconds out of my day. Can't be just because I'm a fast reader.

As for the sky subscription, you're worried that a chatbot (hope you know that that's all it is) is just doing what a bot does?

It's so easy to ignore if you wanted. It's no different from a paragraph saying "thank you for messaging me, would you like to sign up for a free jetski, select yes or no while I locate the correct customer service rep for you". At the same time, it's easy to get offended if you're looking to be offended all the time.

As to the doctor's form, again, there's an option "no label" or "not sure". Costs you more time and energy to fret about it, screenshot it and complain to your friends or upload it online, than to click either of these options and move on with your life.
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To be clear, I'm not fussed about any of this. Nor will it let me influence how I vote. I'm just showing ways in which ordinary people get exposed to identity politics, whether they're interested in them or not.

And when they're being force fed a narrative on social media about the Dems only caring about this stuff, while Trump wants to tear it all up and concentrate on what really matters (MAGA) you can see why they buy into it. Or at least enough of them buy into it to move the needle from the Dems to the Republicans.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Kamala didn't lose because she's Californian, she lost because she can't communicate well and didn't have answers to the border/immigration, the economy, and trans issues that were satisfactory. This type of thinking you have here is really a fallacy and something that will hurt the Democrats more than help because 1) Democrats need to energize their base and some middle of America centrist Dem won't do that and 2) Reps are going to call any Dem candidate a leftist Marxist woke crazy person so by eliminating your strongest candidates, you're just falling into the Republican trap.
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Raoul said:
Harris didn't lose because she's from California. She lost because she was simply never a viable candidate, which has been born out by the results of 2019 and now 2024. When you lose badly twice in a row, it has nothing to do with which state you're from and everything to do with simply not being good enough to win.
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The only people falling into the republican trap were the Democrats for choosing an unrepresentative candidate which tried to deliver a message that people didn't care about.

I suspect Harris lost everywhere because people didn't resonate with her as a candidate. The working class blue wall does not see themselves represented by an official from California with their hollywood lifestyles and fintech money.
 
Redplane said:
Morning after and I still don't get it.
Voting for a right leaning populist candidate in today's world I can reasonably understand.

Voting for a guy with the long, long, long list of assault on the very fabric of democracy and everyone under it is something I will never ever understand.
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Is not about America anymore. It's all about trumpistan and their ideology which seems like we're back in the 1900's.
 
B. Munich said:
If true, that would be even worse!
If the US officially leaves NATO, the remaining countries at least will know what they will be up against.
If the US stays, but if an attack happens, won't honor article 5 that's leaving their allies in a false security. This would be betrayal.
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I am not sure who said it but I believe it was General Camporini. He said that during his first termTrump had privately told NATO partners that in case of an attack then they'll be on their own.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
The only people falling into the republican trap were the Democrats for choosing an unrepresentative candidate which tried to deliver a message that people didn't care about.

I suspect Harris lost everywhere because people didn't resonate with her as a candidate. The working class blue wall does not see themselves represented by an official from California with their hollywood lifestyles and fintech money.
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You could almost say the same thing about Trump, only by swapping California with New York/Florida. It just highlights the cognitive dissonance when the working class see someone like Trump as their savior and representative.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
The only people falling into the republican trap were the Democrats for choosing an unrepresentative candidate which tried to deliver a message that people didn't care about.

I suspect Harris lost everywhere because people didn't resonate with her as a candidate. The working class blue wall does not see themselves represented by an official from California with their hollywood lifestyles and fintech money.
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Spend a few hours listening to Harris and Newsom back to back and the difference in oratory skill becomes so apparent, they are miles apart. What state they are from would have no bearing on electability, that's honestly a complete myth. How they can communicate and how they strategize their campaign will and its clear Newsom also has the strongest team behind him.
 
Sarni said:
Would be so remarkable for Harris to run in 2028. :lol: But then again no one expected Biden to try to run again at 81.
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She will be the first one to drop out if she does. You do understand if there was a democratic primary she wouldn’t have gone far similar to 2020?
 
africanspur said:
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2024/politics/2020-2016-exit-polls-2024-dg/

For those who would seek to blame minorities , honestly piss off with that shit.

This is on white men and women in America and seemingly Latino men as well.

These charts really do bare just how badly Harris did here. She has done so much worse in almost every single demographic compared to both Clinton and Biden. A pretty incredible performance.
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Blaming anyone doesn't really make sense, Trump improved with virtually everyone. This was a landslide.

America has spoken pretty clearly, they have seen what Trump is and what he offers, and they want that. If we are going to be serious about this whole defense of democracy thing, then we have to accept it when countries want to go a different direction too. This might be the US stepping into authoritarianism, but if so it is by popular demand.
 
Dannn411 said:
Which Gavin? Newsom? Haha. Might be the biggest republican landslide ever if that happens. California is not the US.
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A commonly parroted fallacy. California is the 5th biggest economy in the world and a critical component of the US economy. To glibly sneer at this fundamental reality is simply politically counterproductive.

Further, the yellow bits (counties) of the below map account for over 50% of America's population. Most Americans live in coastal or border states and most of the middle of the country is largely uninhabited.

dRvg6tS.png
 
Laurencio said:
Blaming anyone doesn't really make sense, Trump improved with virtually everyone. This was a landslide.

America has spoken pretty clearly, they have seen what Trump is and what he offers, and they want that. If we are going to be serious about this whole defense of democracy thing, then we have to accept it when countries want to go a different direction too. This might be the US stepping into authoritarianism, but if so it is by popular demand.
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So basically, would this shut up so called leftist or liberal groups that want the Dems to go further left?
 
Ultimate Grib said:
The only people falling into the republican trap were the Democrats for choosing an unrepresentative candidate which tried to deliver a message that people didn't care about.

I suspect Harris lost everywhere because people didn't resonate with her as a candidate. The working class blue wall does not see themselves represented by an official from California with their hollywood lifestyles and fintech money.
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This doesn't make sense. Trump is anything but working class, so it has nothing to do with any of it.
 
Scarlett Dracarys said:
feck all of them. Hope they all suffer.
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Absolutely. You can *sort of* forgive these people for 2016 and rolling the dice against the establishment - but after witnessing everything that has come after, and culminating with J6? Get fecked, they've made their own bed.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
The dems should run a mile from Gavin, unless Trump really fecks the US up by 2028.

Californians are seen overwhelmingly as out of touch which resonates with the majority of working class voters hence why I suspect this Harris result across the country.
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Wildly early take is that this hurts Newsom (California) and helps Whitmer and Shapiro (Dems easiest path is Michigan/Penn/Wisconsin, especially if latino men have moved to Republicans, which has to hurt Arizona/Nevada) and I guess anyone who looks very strong in Georgia/North Carolina if that person exists. Gallego is beating Lake, he's a Latino man, don't know much about him. Buttigeig hard to say. Also hard to say if there will be a serious left candidate this time or not.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
The only people falling into the republican trap were the Democrats for choosing an unrepresentative candidate which tried to deliver a message that people didn't care about.

I suspect Harris lost everywhere because people didn't resonate with her as a candidate. The working class blue wall does not see themselves represented by an official from California with their hollywood lifestyles and fintech money.
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The likes of Trump, Vance, Musk etc. look like they represent them.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Spend a few hours listening to Harris and Newsom back to back and the difference in oratory skill becomes so apparent, they are miles apart. What state they are from would have no bearing on electability, that's honestly a complete myth. How they can communicate and how they strategize their campaign will and its clear Newsom also has the strongest team behind him.
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He could be the next best thing since slice bread but in todays social media age the republicans will maul him like they did Harris in this election.

The republicans know how to win elections and they use every trick in the book. They know how to get the message out there to stick in your mind.

When you think about Joe Biden what comes to mind, Sleepy Joe and Bidenomics. That's what voters will remember.
 
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