Gotcha. Yeah I'd be curious to see more of those polls come out to see what parts are reliable.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
it's a poll by the same people who ran the kamala campaign.
They were just asking for a definition so that they can give a careful and considered answer.
Good post imo. The sad irony for the Democrats is that they had a strong young male contingent to rely on, but chose to deride them as "Bernie bros".
If you tell any group "I'm offering you nothing, and I utterly refuse to listen to the concerns you are putting forward. In fact you're an asshole for even putting those concerns forward" you can't really be surprised when they don't vote for you.
Yep, Bernie for all his flaws, I think had a feature that no other Democrat bigshot politician had. He was genuine, you can probably even believe that he cares about people, he looked almost one of us. Not like just another corrupted politician pontificating bullshit.
And then the Dems stole the nomination twice from him and are now surprised that not many people in the working class seem to connect with the party anymore.
She's correct.
You've never liked Harris so not sure we can confirm that.
My thoughts about her were based on her previous performance in 2019. She had improved somewhat since then but she simply wasn't the right candidate for the moment. It wasn't of course her fault that Biden left it so late to pull out.
I thought they ran this for a joke but they ran it especially for you
It has no meaning given that we don't know how a final 3 months of a Biden-Trump campaign would've gone down. In 2020, Biden finished very strong, so even an impaired 2024 Biden when juxtaposed against the alternative, would've fared much better than his debate performance. The best result however would've been for Biden to no run as he suggested he might not when he ran the first time.
We don't know what would have happened in the same way as we don't know what would have happened if they ran a AOC-Jimmy Carter ticket. We can however, make a pretty good guess of it. We would have seen red Virginia and a 60-seat GOP senate. This has nothing to do with the campaign or its final 3 months, which could have only fiddled around the edges of these numbers. It has to do with the presidency, and the fixed image of economic fecklessness and foreign policy weakness.
To re-iterate, he is the second worst rated president in history, the only one worse was the 2nd term of George W Bush, which ended with a war that was horribly unpopular, a hurricane that was shambolically managed, and the biggest economic collapse in 80 years. It ended at 30%. Your man Biden is at 38%. He was between 35-40 throughout his "campaign". Trump never dropped consistently below 40 -- and he *lost* re-election.
And yes, Biden should have dropped out, and someone untainted by his administration should have got it, but the timing meant that all alternatives were closed.
And another one...
If the tweet doesn't load fully, you'll have to scroll down to find his name, because Joe Biden is at the bottom. Dead last.
If the tweet doesn't load fully, you'll have to scroll down to find his name, because Joe Biden is at the bottom. Dead last.
Unfortunately, its a hypothetical for a scenario that doesn't exist, so the answers offer no more value than asking someone in 2022 if Oprah or Michelle Obama would make a better opponent to defeat Trump.
7% of people haven't heard of Donald Trump?
I guess "no opinion"? The strangest people in the world
btw bernie's number here has been brought down from +10ish in 2016. he wouldn't have won either.
Why don't the democrates instead of running for election just raise the money and then use it to lobby the republicans. How much does lobbeying cost and buying people in the senate, surely taking that 600m and just buying republicans for half a mil each would get more stuff done.
A one party state then ? I think its been tried before.
Does this mean anything? Trump crushed Harris with independents, so their favorability with them are not equal, independents approve of Trump very much, just don't want to admit it or something.
It wouldnt have to be out in the open or anything done through subsidiary compaines, think how much legisalation you could push through.
What a lot of people on here with all their fancy analysis and paragraphs of reasoning don't realize it's that's it's not about Harris. It was all about making sure that is wasn't trump who gets to call the shots. The fight was to ensure he never gets that power again. He's a tyrant and Harris might be weak but at least she's not trump. She might not end the genocide in Israel but the entire Jewish community in New York voted for trump. Makes you wonder why.
Most of the businesses in the diamond district are Jewish owned and they have posters of trump with his face photoshopped unto that Rambo first blood image holding that big machine gun. I guess he's their savior. Harris may have her faults but she was a far better option than trump. trump and his following are pure hate. They disguise it as caring for unborn babies and the well-being of trans children but it all just boils down to pure hate.
Everyone can keep yapping about Harris this and Harris that but at the end of the day the jokes on them.
I Envy those people.
Well, the difference between Kamala's -12 and Trump's -13 isn't a lot.
The difference between his -13 and Biden's -33, on the other hand...
He seems to have taken a backseat recently and especially over this election. You'd expect that would hurt his numbers, wouldn't it? Were there as many undecideds in 2016?I guess "no opinion"? The strangest people in the world
btw bernie's number here has been brought down from +10ish in 2016. he wouldn't have won either.
Kind of seems like a lot of the left did, though i guess thats natural, its would have been hard to maintain the momentum he built and he's obviously going to be slowing down.
@Morty_
now that the results are out, isn't this also pretty much a polling vindication (for non-Selzer polls)? All the other indicators (early vote, sepcial elections, washington primary, all that) were hopelessly wrong. Polling averages got pretty close. They were within 2 points of the result nationally and in most states, and caught the Latino and youth shift. Given that, is there a particular reason to distrust this stuff in the polls?
now that the results are out, isn't this also pretty much a polling vindication (for non-Selzer polls)? All the other indicators (early vote, sepcial elections, washington primary, all that) were hopelessly wrong. Polling averages got pretty close. They were within 2 points of the result nationally and in most states, and caught the Latino and youth shift. Given that, is there a particular reason to distrust this stuff in the polls?
He's older than Biden and Trump, even though he can speak more cogently. His time is up. And (I wrote a long post about this earlier), the winning coalition he could have had in a general is lost to Trump. The US isn't a leftist country, and the next chance won't come for a while. IMO.
Based on most exit-polls, 55% of Jewish community in New York voted for Harris. The Jewish community is not a mind hive who vote solely because of Israel. Heck, the only important politician in the US who heavily criticized Israel was Bernie Sanders, a Jewish.
I think what lots of people are still missing (of course, this is my opinion only and the feck do I know) is that just saying ‘Trump is bad’ is not a winning strategy and doesn’t resonate well with people. It worked in 2020, but that was purely because of covid, had there been no covid, Trump would have won easily. Harris was an awful candidate who stood for nothing, whom no one really liked, and who had the capital sin, was the VP of one of the most unpopular presidents in the history of the US. And her campaign was ‘Trump is bad’ and ‘Trump is a threat to democracy’ despite that herself was ‘chosen’ as nominee in basically the most undemocratic process in forever.
And no, I do not think the joke is on ‘them’ whoever they are cause them won. The joke, in my humble opinion, is in the people who pontificate and virtue signal and still do not get the point why Trump won (and why a Trump ideological heir be it JD, Vivek, De Santis or Don Junior will win the next election), if the Dems do not wake the feck up and try to connect again with people, and try to sell ‘hope’ rather than ‘fear’ and ‘victimization’.
Probably right. Maybe it highlights the mistake of not having a nomination election. Maybe someone else could step up to build that kind of energy and hand it off to the eventual winner as he did previously.