2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

I have a feeling if things get worse the Dems will beg Biden to stand down. A 2nd Trump presidency would be too terrible to contemplate.

Michelle Obama throwing her hat into the ring would crush Trump but she just doesn't have the appetite for politics and isn't qualified (but still more qualified than Trump probably).
 
Raoul said:
An interesting addendum to all the gloom and doom about Biden's recent polling.

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GE polls for presidential elections are bizarre. It is not like the election is decided by popular votes only.

I don't know how reliable polls are nowadays. But if they are even close to being reliable, only those for swing states will matter. The rest are just a waste of time, at least for the presidential elections.
 
The United said:
GE polls for presidential elections are bizarre. It is not like the election is decided by popular votes only.

I don't know how reliable polls are nowadays. But if they are even close to being reliable, only those for swing states will matter. The rest are just a waste of time, at least for the presidential elections.
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I don't look at head to head polls as reliable this far out (although not insignificant given how nervous Dems suddenly are this week). What's more informtive is Biden's likability seems to have shot up after the attack on Israel last month. That's not likely to last very long though.
 
NV seems a tad off, such a poll would indicate the hospitality workers union (who are set to strike in a couple of days against three major casinos in Vegas) haven't thrown their weight behind Biden. I gather they may not have declared yet, but a poll would help showcase their traditional lean.
 
Beshear should be okay, i think, but long way to go before we are done.
 
Given Beshear's performance in rural Kentucky, I'm wondering if voters' racism overpowered their party loyalty. I remember hearing a number of rural NC voters mention how they'd always voted for Democrats until 2008.
 
Trump endorsed Cameron in the primaries, another one of his handpicked candidates goes down in flames.
 
This is what happens in Virginia, if Youngkin gets his legislature, forget about 15 weeks, he would sign anything the legislature puts at his desk, most likely.

Though, i think dems are pretty safe in the state senate regardless.
 
A Dem guy winning reelection is great in a deep red state. That's great, but I can't help thinking that if his opponent for the GOP is a white guy, the result probably would not turn out like that? It is not exactly an indication of anything meaningful to get from the state on the national stage, I would think.

And most of the polls looked wrong again?
 
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The United said:
A Dem guy winning reelection is great in a deep red state. That's great, but I can't help thinking that if his opponent for the GOP is a white guy, the result probably would not turn out like that? It is not exactly an indication of anything meaningful to get from the state on the national stage, I would think.
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He beat a white guy last time. Bashear has great name recognition since his dad was also a governor. Similar to Sarah Huckabee in Arkansas.
 
The United said:
A Dem guy winning reelection is great in a deep red state. That's great, but I can't help thinking that if his opponent for the GOP is a white guy, the result probably would not turn out like that? It is not exactly an indication of anything meaningful to get from the state on the national stage, I would think.
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You would imagine it would be closer, true, but Beshear would still have been very difficult to beat.

On the latter point, no, i agree, these governor races don't say much about national politics, i think Virginia is the race to follow for that.
 
Raoul said:
He beat a white guy last time. Bashear has great name recognition since his dad was also a governor. Similar to Sarah Huckabee in Arkansas.
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I am talking about this election cycle with all the things going on.
 
It seems like abortion is driving a lot of Dem turnout. Bashear is pro-choice plus the Ohio situation.
 
CNN projects: Beshear wins re-election in Kentucky, probably by a bigger margin than 4 years ago.

Abortion continues to be a good topic for the Dems. I also think that the country is in a better shape than the approval numbers of Biden indicate. Inflation has fallen under 4%, the unemployment rate is under 4%, the growth rate is above 4%, etc. The voters don't care about pundits, just like they didn't care a year ago.
 
Morty_ said:
You would imagine it would be closer, true, but Beshear would still have been very difficult to beat.

On the latter point, no, i agree, these governor races don't say much about national politics, i think Virginia is the race to follow for that.
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I am trying to figure out if the polls are relevant nowadays and/or if the GOP candidate being black had something to do with it.

Then I am trying to figure out if I should ignore all the polling for 2024 presidential elections.
 
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