Yes jail can make a difference.
But on age perception matters more than the numerical age. And polls are clear about the perception of old Biden, including the poll you just posted:
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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Yes jail can make a difference.
But on age perception matters more than the numerical age. And polls are clear about the perception of old Biden, including the poll you just posted:
I've seen this poll as well. As suggested above, Biden's numbers are going to skew more negative in the present because he's actually in office. If people are upset about Israel policy, inflation, and the cost of living right now, the the guy in office will always be blamed. If however, the guy in office is compared to the prospects of another Trump presidency, then sentiment will probably change again, just as it did in 20 when Biden finished with the most votes ever despite being comparably "old". Its therefore not realistic to compare the two in the present, since circumstances are likely to radically change between now and a year from now.
I was bringing up one election cycle where the incumbent was behind in the November preceeding the election. Every incumbent since Carter bar the Bushes has been behind at this stage - no doubt the Bushes would have been as well if they weren't wartime Presidents. The metrics of this election might be only germane to itself (they certainly are unique), but historical trends show that the glidepath the campaigns are on fits the historical trend.
That's simply not true.
By late 1983, Reagan had recovered (1). As you said, HW was ahead because of the war -- the only case where there was a reversal of the polling from one year out. Clinton was ahead all the way through (2). Bush was ahead because of war and would stay ahead. Obama was ahead, as I showed. Trump was behind, and he lost.
Finally, wealso have approval ratings, which turned out to be very significant in 2016, and are historically off-the-scale bad for Biden:
(1) - while it is hard to get 1v1 polling, his approval had recovered at this point from a low of under 40 earlier in 1983, to approaching 55: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/ronald-reagan-public-approval
(2) - wiki : "Clinton maintained a consistent polling edge over Dole, and he won re-election with a substantial margin in the popular vote and the Electoral College. " Individual poll from Dec 1995: " 50 percent of respondents said they would support Bill Clinton, just 32 percent Bob Dole. The average of recent polls has Clinton ahead by 10-12 points. "
A little earlier in July...
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/1995/jun/11/dole-edges-clinton-in-newsweek-poll/
I've picked averages wherever I could, you keep picking individual polls...
...
Ok I just realized he is running WORSE than KAMALA HARRIS. The POLLING KRYPTONITE of 2020.
Genuinely did not think this was possible. (Of course, generic Dem is to be expected, but Harris???)
e - on RCP, Harris' approval is much worse than Biden's and slightly worse than Trump's. Which means this slight polling advantange for her is probably because of his age and nothing else.
Stand corrected re: Reagan...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...l-shows/6c7b2ecd-5c9c-4aea-946c-408eef6b61a6/
I still can't see Trump getting enough votes overall to edge the EC to him but perhaps a couple swing states go red again and it happens, despite losing the GE vote by 3-5 million.
Is it panic buy time? Time for Joe to step aside and let the primaries elect a Dem nominee?
Let Harris run for the nomination against Newsom, Warren, Whitmer, et al.
It was mentioned on Real Time that the primary nominee cannot have a VP pick from that same state, which eliminates a Harris/Newsom combo (which wouldn't be either nominee's selection of course). I was not aware this clause exists.
How would a Newsom/Whitmer ticket fare?
Is it panic buy time? Time for Joe to step aside and let the primaries elect a Dem nominee?
Let Harris run for the nomination against Newsom, Warren, Whitmer, et al.
It was mentioned on Real Time that the primary nominee cannot have a VP pick from that same state, which eliminates a Harris/Newsom combo (which wouldn't be either nominee's selection of course). I was not aware this clause exists.
How would a Newsom/Whitmer ticket fare?
I think Trump could win, but it would take a nearly perfect storm, which wouldn't seem likely as it takes independents to win the presidency and they have long since abandoned Trump. Last time, he had to rely on an unprecedented MAGA and traditional GOP turnout to make it a close race in the few swing states (despite getting trounced in the popular vote).
Would be a good combination imo. Unfortunately, Biden seems hellbent on running again and time is running out for any alternatives if he choose to improbably change his mind.
Wow, those are extremely terrible polls for Biden, except for Wisconsin, for some reason, makes little sense why that one should be any different.
It is too far out to draw conclusion, but right now it seems like Biden is tanking, while downballot dems are doing sort of fine, may i entertain you all with the seemingly absurd scenario where Trump wins, but dems take back the house AND hold on to the senate?
Now, the latter isn't really happening, 50/50 is the best dems can do, which gives GOP the senate if they take the WH, if dems just had won Wisconsin in the mid-terms, this scenario wouldn't actually be too crazy.
Now, the latter isn't really happening, 50/50 is the best dems can do, which gives GOP the senate if they take the WH, if dems just had won Wisconsin in the mid-terms, this scenario wouldn't actually be too crazy.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Dem’s special election momentum will continue this week in Virginia.
Absolutely, there are other important elections as well, but governor elections in Kentucky and Mississippi are kind of their own thing, how Virginia goes should at least be a decent indicator for next year.
Forgot about KY & MS.
Definitely races to follow, Kentucky i will be disappointed if Beshear doesn't hold on, Mississippi i don't have high expectations, but an upset is possible, i suppose.
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Imagine if you feckers elect Trump.
If Trump gets re-elected, I swear the US would definitely enter my list of "must avoid" countries in cases of travelling.
Not that big of a surprise from the outside looking in. Biden looks like a barely sentient old man at this point. I know Trump isn't much older, but Biden looks like he doesn't know where he is during most of his screen time.
A generic unnamed democrat actually sounds like a better candidate than most...
A generic unnamed democrat actually sounds like a better candidate than most...
Would getting Biden to stand down and electing a new candidate not make the Dems appear rudderless and weak at this stage?
Beholden to an old man?
I know the GOP are too of course but the Dems are spectacularly bad at messaging.
Beholden to an old man?
I know the GOP are too of course but the Dems are spectacularly bad at messaging.
The Muslim ban would be back, that I can tell you. He would probably also deploy the military to the southern border.
I’m convinced it’ll happen. Just to underscore the absurdity of project America.
He'd invoke the Insurrection Act & suspect Posse Comitatus. He'd go after perceived enemies with the military.
Didn't realize the same poll asked this question too
I would love to be a person who is waiting for a Trump conviction before I make my mind up.
And yet Trump got elected whilst saying the same thing on tape, that wasn't just right wingers voting for him
The final poll for the Kentucky Governor race.
Cameron is a dangerous cnut.
He probably loses, which is good, but then he probably comes back as senator in 2026 when Mitch is gone.
This would be probably the least concerning version of Trump. The Trump you are probably going to get if he is reelected is the one where loyal troops are arresting the head of the DOJ and the other agencies in their homes, and the government is purged under some kind of emergency conditions.
Yeah, i'm just not buying this at all.
People are still voting for Trump despite everything he has already said and done, why would a court sentence change anything at this point?
They will just say its a deep state plot, Trump was persecuted etc. and continue to support him.
There cant be that many voters who are on the fence when it comes to Trump.
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Michelle Obama is the only one that beats Biden
Democrats voters are just as insane as Republican voters.
Hopefully senior dem party members can talk sense into Biden to take one for the team and invent a reason not to stand for re-election.
I don’t know who could take his place but surely there has to be someone out there that can take on and beat trump.
I don’t know who could take his place but surely there has to be someone out there that can take on and beat trump.
I havent kept track, is Trump elected candidate from the Republicans or the vote on that is still on?
No vote counted yet. It's only about polls before the first primary takes place in mid-January, which would be the Iowa Caucuses.
An interesting addendum to all the gloom and doom about Biden's recent polling.
Michelle Obama is the only one that beats Biden
An M Obama H Clinton ticket would make so many heads explode that in some way id love to see it.