2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Raoul said:
There's been a bit of a buzz about Texas lately. I wouldn't get my hopes up though.
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It would be a surprise if TX didn't stay red at Presidential level, but would it be if Cruz lost the Senate gig?
 
Laurencio said:
I don't think it's even possible without Florida and Texas.
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Impossible. I think Harris might perform slightly better than Biden in Florida but it's not a state the Dems can realistically win imo and the campaign spending there reflects that.
 
As long as Harris gets 270 votes of three electoral college I'm pleased. Every additional vote is just a bonus.
 
Looks good. Anything but a thumping win for Harris would be an embarrassment for the US. I hope it comes off.
 
Tom Van Persie said:
https://virtualtout.com/




No idea how they can win by anything close to 447 but still interesting that his model is predicting a clear win for Harris.
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I've been following this site and it always fills me with hope! I fully expect (and wish/pray for etc) a Harris win with some Maga shennanigans, but I can't see how she ever reaches the electoral college numbers these guys are predicting.
 
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/17/trump-drug-prices-gop-concerns

GOP trying to remove the cap on drug prices that dems set with the IRA, they sure have their priority set straight.

  • Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) said the IRA drug pricing provisions are "the worst legislation I've ever witnessed in 10 years in Congress and 10 years in the state legislature" and he "absolutely" wants to repeal them.
  • Asked about Trump's criticism of pharma, Carter said "that's OK, pharma needs to be criticized," but it should not be done in a way that is "destroying research and development."
  • Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said he "100%" wants to repeal the negotiation provisions, while other drug pricing sections of the law would need to be evaluated based on whether they have "a positive impact on business."

Party of death, imagine actually hating your own voters this much.
 
Morty_ said:
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/17/trump-drug-prices-gop-concerns

GOP trying to remove the cap on drug prices that dems set with the IRA, they sure have their priority set straight.

  • Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) said the IRA drug pricing provisions are "the worst legislation I've ever witnessed in 10 years in Congress and 10 years in the state legislature" and he "absolutely" wants to repeal them.
  • Asked about Trump's criticism of pharma, Carter said "that's OK, pharma needs to be criticized," but it should not be done in a way that is "destroying research and development."
  • Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said he "100%" wants to repeal the negotiation provisions, while other drug pricing sections of the law would need to be evaluated based on whether they have "a positive impact on business."

Party of death, imagine actually hating your own voters this much.
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Yet Trump is out there promising free IVF and a limit of 10% apr on credit cards. Is anyone dumb enough to believe that his promises would ever get votes of Republicans in the house?
 
B. Munich said:
As long as Harris gets 270 votes of three electoral college I'm pleased. Every additional vote is just a bonus.
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We desperately need a landslide win for her, that's the only way to free the GOP and the US from MAGA, they have to see that Trump and his followers are losers and can never win again.

If it's close MAGA just keeps on going. Don't get me wrong I'd take a close fought win for Harris as anything is better than a second term for Trump, but MAGA need to be destroyed and the only way to do that is an absolute thrashing at the ballot box.
 
gaffs said:
Yet Trump is out there promising free IVF and a limit of 10% apr on credit cards. Is anyone dumb enough to believe that his promises would ever get votes of Republicans in the house?
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Furthermore, does anybody actually believe Trump wouldn't drop these issues the moment he was in the white house again?

Still waiting for his healthcare plan, that was going to be amazing and all, turns out, he just wanted to repeal ACA, and replace it with nothing.
 
The Boy said:
I've been following this site and it always fills me with hope! I fully expect (and wish/pray for etc) a Harris win with some Maga shennanigans, but I can't see how she ever reaches the electoral college numbers these guys are predicting.
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Laurencio said:
I don't think it's even possible without Florida and Texas.
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This prediction is lunacy.

Harris would need to win all the swing states plus Texas, Florida, Ohio. That "only" gets her to around 410, so she would need to win states like TN, KY, IN, SC, or just win every state West of the Mississippi River.

More change of United winning the Premier League this season than this happening.
 
The Boy said:
We desperately need a landslide win for her, that's the only way to free the GOP and the US from MAGA, they have to see that Trump and his followers are losers and can never win again.

If it's close MAGA just keeps on going. Don't get me wrong I'd take a close fought win for Harris as anything is better than a second term for Trump, but MAGA need to be destroyed and the only way to do that is an absolute thrashing at the ballot box.
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That would be nice, but a landslide is probably beyond the realm of what is possible this election, Harris would have to flip Texas, she would have to flip Florida.

2020 map+NC would be very good, but i'd take 276 EC votes in a heartbeat too, the easiest path, the rustbelt+Nevada delivers that, in the end, its about winning.
 
Morty_ said:
Furthermore, does anybody actually believe Trump wouldn't drop these issues the moment he was in the white house again?

Still waiting for his healthcare plan, that was going to be amazing and all, turns out, he just wanted to repeal ACA, and replace it with nothing.
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He will forget about his promises just like he will forget who Mark Robinson is when next asked by the press.

It takes a special kind of cruelty to promise IVF and a reduction in credit card interest, as there will be people out there struggling with conceiving or with debt that may be suckered into voting for him because of these "policies".

I expect that in the coming weeks, he will start promising even more that cannot be delivered.
 
Morty_ said:
That would be nice, but a landslide is probably beyond the realm of what is possible this election, Harris would have to flip Texas, she would have to flip Florida.

2020 map+NC would be very good, but i'd take 276 EC votes in a heartbeat too, the easiest path, the rustbelt+Nevada delivers that, in the end, its about winning.
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I'd take 270!
 
gaffs said:
This prediction is lunacy.

Harris would need to win all the swing states plus Texas, Florida, Ohio. That "only" gets her to around 410, so she would need to win states like TN, KY, IN, SC, or just win every state West of the Mississippi River.

More change of United winning the Premier League this season than this happening.
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More chance of United winning the domestic treble + EL this season, and Rashford Garnacho Amad all finish top 3 BdO than that happening.


The Boy said:
We desperately need a landslide win for her, that's the only way to free the GOP and the US from MAGA, they have to see that Trump and his followers are losers and can never win again.

If it's close MAGA just keeps on going. Don't get me wrong I'd take a close fought win for Harris as anything is better than a second term for Trump, but MAGA need to be destroyed and the only way to do that is an absolute thrashing at the ballot box.
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306-232, 7 million votes, and MAGA still going strong.

The Reagan/Bush/Romney Republican Party is dead, there's no breaking the fever, they will keep getting more extreme, as long as Heritage, SC and the donors are still there to egg them on.
 
The Boy said:
We desperately need a landslide win for her, that's the only way to free the GOP and the US from MAGA, they have to see that Trump and his followers are losers and can never win again.

If it's close MAGA just keeps on going. Don't get me wrong I'd take a close fought win for Harris as anything is better than a second term for Trump, but MAGA need to be destroyed and the only way to do that is an absolute thrashing at the ballot box.
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Why do we want to free the GOP or the US from MAGA?

For what reason do we want a "normal" Republican party? They allowed themselves to be co-opted by Trump and MAGA. They had their chance to rid themselves of Trump after Jan 6th. They did the math and they realise they need Trumps base in order to be electoraly viable. They won't rip the bandaid off because they are scared that he will send nasty "Truths" about leadership and scupper future elections if they kick him out.

They are literally waiting for him to die, as they wont do anything until then.

Let them continue to lose elections. Let Trump keep backing candidates like Kari Lake, Herschel Walker, Dr Oz and Mark Robinson.

My own opinion is that if he loses, he will cause chaos, forcing the GOP to back him and his falsehoods again, thus repeating the same cycle. I think he runs again in 2028, if he is not dead by then. And i suspect he will announce early so he can keep dipping into campaign funds and donations to enrich him and his family as well as pay his legal fees.
 
The Boy said:
We desperately need a landslide win for her, that's the only way to free the GOP and the US from MAGA, they have to see that Trump and his followers are losers and can never win again.

If it's close MAGA just keeps on going. Don't get me wrong I'd take a close fought win for Harris as anything is better than a second term for Trump, but MAGA need to be destroyed and the only way to do that is an absolute thrashing at the ballot box.
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There are no landslides in the US anymore. 319-219 would be the absolute best case scenario for Dems involving a sweep of both the rust and sunbelt states. In either case, losing would be the end of Trump and MAGA, since the latter is merely a marketing term for the former, and once he's done, the GOP will be forced to revert to ordinary politics or else risk getting marginalized into irrelevance and obscurity.
 
Morty_ said:
Another reason to secure Nevada, which should be the most likely state after rustbelt.

Now, why is it not too late for them to change the electoral process in Nebraska, but it is in Maine?
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I think any change must happens before the 90 days period before the Electoral College vote, so if they ratfeck successfully with, say, 1 or 2 days left then Maine cant convene their legislature fast enough to push the vote through.

Very much a doomsday scenario though, but an avenue they are surreptiously pushing. Lindsey Graham cancelled events to go to Nebraska for this.
 
The Boy said:
We desperately need a landslide win for her, that's the only way to free the GOP and the US from MAGA, they have to see that Trump and his followers are losers and can never win again.

If it's close MAGA just keeps on going. Don't get me wrong I'd take a close fought win for Harris as anything is better than a second term for Trump, but MAGA need to be destroyed and the only way to do that is an absolute thrashing at the ballot box.
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Why would we want that? The best thing for the US would be for the GOP to self destruct and never stand a chance of winning a general election again.
 
SirAF said:
Why would we want that? The best thing for the US would be for the GOP to self destruct and never stand a chance of winning a general election again.
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Because my nerves can not handle the run up to every US election, 2020 left me shredded, this one before Biden dropped out kept me awake at night. I need an election where even if the dems lose I don't see the end of the world!

I want those fascist cnuts gone.
 
nimic said:
Maybe, but the danger is that they keep radicalizing and then win another election. And then you're Germany in 1933.
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Their extremism is hurting them in some very important states though, look no further than Texas, once that stat flips, they will have to adapt, or be kept out of the white house indefinitely.
 
nimic said:
Maybe, but the danger is that they keep radicalizing and then win another election. And then you're Germany in 1933.
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Absolutely - that wouldn't be good!
The Boy said:
Because my nerves can not handle the run up to every US election, 2020 left me shredded, this one before Biden dropped out kept me awake at night. I need an election where even if the dems lose I don't see the end of the world!

I want those fascist cnuts gone.
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So do I, but the Dems dominating for a couple of decades would do the US a world of good compared to swapping back and forth between themselves and whatever iteration of the GOP you'd get. So I'd love for them to really feck themselves into irrelevance if that is an option.

That said, your point is clearly a good one. The old GOP of Romney, Bush, McCain et al is obviously preferable to today's version.
 
nimic said:
Maybe, but the danger is that they keep radicalizing and then win another election. And then you're Germany in 1933.
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The thing is, has there ever been a fascistic movement as big as this that withered and died after electoral failure? We are kinda in uncharted territory but there are much more reasons to believe that they will keep getting more extreme and resort to extralegal/illegal means to get into power rather than go away quietly.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:


Jesus Christ this is scary. I don’t care that it’s not loaded, why do idiots treat guns like this?
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Americans aren't required to do any serious learning to own guns, unless they want a concealed carry permit. And even that probably varies from state to state.

Here in Canada we have to do one or two courses to get licensed. The two fundamental concepts we learn are ACTS and PROVE.

ACTS is basically that you assume every gun is loaded, control the muzzle direction at all times and keep your finger off the trigger until you're ready to shoot, real basic safety shit. PROVE is a series of steps to check the gun is not loaded or obstructed in any way. It does involve pointing the barrel at your face (E = examine the bore) but by that point it is safe to do so.

Watching that clip it's very clear Roseanne doesn't have much experience or training handling guns. Sadly this is also true for a ton of Americans. There's a ton of cognitive dissonance at work down there when it comes to firearm safety.
 
nimic said:
Maybe, but the danger is that they keep radicalizing and then win another election. And then you're Germany in 1933.
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Yup, they can become more desperate. But, fortunately, the next bad guy they hyped up in GOP was totally shit in national stage so far - Ron DeSantis. Hope he and others like him stay that way.
 
The United said:
Yup, they can become more desperate. But, fortunately, the next bad guy they hyped up in GOP was totally shit in national stage so far - Ron DeSantis. Hope he and others like him stay that way.
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The extremely swift national fall of Ron DeSantis was thoroughly enjoyable to watch. And it's not like J.D Vance is turning out to be such a star either. Then again, few thought Trump was going to be as successful as he was. Hell, every indication is that Trump himself didn't expect to win, and wasn't actually in it to become President. It's so unpredictable, and if it turns bad it turns really bad.
 
Dr. Dwayne said:
Americans aren't required to do any serious learning to own guns, unless they want a concealed carry permit. And even that probably varies from state to state.

Here in Canada we have to do one or two courses to get licensed. The two fundamental concepts we learn are ACTS and PROVE.

ACTS is basically that you assume every gun is loaded, control the muzzle direction at all times and keep your finger off the trigger until you're ready to shoot, real basic safety shit. PROVE is a series of steps to check the gun is not loaded or obstructed in any way. It does involve pointing the barrel at your face (E = examine the bore) but by that point it is safe to do so.

Watching that clip it's very clear Roseanne doesn't have much experience or training handling guns. Sadly this is also true for a ton of Americans. There's a ton of cognitive dissonance at work down there when it comes to firearm safety.
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That really tickled me. Obviously I know there will be a bunch of checks to ensure it’s empty. But the child in me saw a bunch of gun nuts in a room just DEMANDING that they simply must be allowed to look into the barrel of a gun at some point.

The finger on the trigger thing is wild though. Hollywood taught me that and on hearing it I thought ‘Well nobody would ever need to be TOLD that’. Evidently not.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
That really tickled me. Obviously I know there will be a bunch of checks to ensure it’s empty. But the child in me saw a bunch of gun nuts in a room just DEMANDING that they simply must be allowed to look into the barrel of a gun at some point.

The finger on the trigger thing is wild though. Hollywood taught me that and on hearing it I thought ‘Well nobody would ever need to be TOLD that’. Evidently not.
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Interestingly, most people I spoke with didn't like looking in the barrel but a club level instructor mentioned that by the time you get there you know there aren't any bullets in the thing and you're just looking to make sure nothing is lodged in the barrel, after that it made more sense.

Re triggers, you'd think so but like I said, cognitive dissonance abounds. A large number of American gun owners refuse to acknowledge the destructive power of their weapons. It's like they believe if they did then they'd have no other choice but to agree to implement some form of gun control.
 
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