Makes sense given Gallego is hispanic and Maricopa county is 1/3 hispanic and growing. Sinema can go back to wherever the hell she came from.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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Makes sense given Gallego is hispanic and Maricopa county is 1/3 hispanic and growing. Sinema can go back to wherever the hell she came from.
I would hope they would just abstain rather than voting for someone who candidly states that he is going to kick out a considerable majority of them immediately after taking office. The myopic shortsightedness of such a potential move is what made me chortle.
I am fairly sure they won't vote Trump, unless they gain financially from it but they won't vote for Biden either.
Even just abstaining could be a huge problem for Biden, right? To my knowledge Arab Americans were part of the coalitation that won him the crucial swing states in 2020, but I could be wrong.
In any case, the Gaza situation is a headache for Biden, and I don't think there is a perfect way to play it. Either you lose support from Arab Americans, or you provide the Republicans with a massive stick to beat you with by not getting fully behind Israel, which would be bad for the moderate votes. It's a lose-lose for him.
I could be wrong but recent polling showed most Americans favour at ceasefire. The Dems only have themselves to blame as they are as insanely pro Israel as the republicans(The Dem press sec compared anti Israeli protesters to neo Nazis).
The poll clearly shows that the vast majority of these people are not going from Biden to Trump.
The people who are, are probably just conservatives.
I mean thats what the poll shows no? All it really tells us is that Biden has pretty much lost the Arab vote (59% down to 17%), but support for Trump has only gone up by 5%, most of whom I'd wager are Arab conservatives who probably thought feck it, Biden isn't doing anything for them so they'd vote for their 'values'. Looks like most are undecided, abstaining or voting third party.
Yeah, I saw that statement from the press secretary. I thought it was wild.
I think I have seen those poll numbers as well, and in general you can read a lot into recent polling. There are also polls showing a lot more support for Israelis than Palestinians among Americans. I just think it could be a disaster for Biden to be seen as not fully behind Israel, which is why he has chosen this strategy.
There's no political win here for Biden imo. The spending bill actually has broadly similar values for Israel and Gazan aid, not that you'd know it from the reporting. That's somewhat sensible.
The real issue is that I don't believe Biden can stop Netanyahu and his cronies. People say Israel is just a puppet to its paymasters but that narrative is far too simplistic. Netanyahu is going to peform these atrocities in spite of worldwide condemnation.
Biden has to show support for Israel because the October 7th attacks were horrendous. He flew all the way over there to force the Israeli's to at least say they had SOMETHING planned for the day after any action. And they didn't apparently.
I 100% do not believe that Joe Biden the person is looking at what is happening in Gaza and supporting it. I'm just not convinced he has the ability to stop it. You can see Blinken desperately trying too.
Imo Israel's current leadership has gone rogue.
The real issue is that I don't believe Biden can stop Netanyahu and his cronies. People say Israel is just a puppet to its paymasters but that narrative is far too simplistic. Netanyahu is going to peform these atrocities in spite of worldwide condemnation.
Biden has to show support for Israel because the October 7th attacks were horrendous. He flew all the way over there to force the Israeli's to at least say they had SOMETHING planned for the day after any action. And they didn't apparently.
I 100% do not believe that Joe Biden the person is looking at what is happening in Gaza and supporting it. I'm just not convinced he has the ability to stop it. You can see Blinken desperately trying too.
Imo Israel's current leadership has gone rogue.
Fair enough.
Majorities of Democratic voters dislike Netanyahu. A poll from earlier this year found that only 25% of conservative and moderate Democrats and 10% of liberal democrats had a positive view of him.
It is political malpractice for Biden to be seen as a suck-up to such a widely disliked figure. Might as well give a blowjob to Trump on live television.
It is political malpractice for Biden to be seen as a suck-up to such a widely disliked figure. Might as well give a blowjob to Trump on live television.
He's also unpopular inside Israel, but that hasn't stopped most Israelis from supporting military action to get rid of Hamas. The US public will be largely supportive of Israel as well, irrespective who the current PM is.
Trump moved the american embassy from tel aviv to Jerusalem, so jew votters might have something to say there too.
This the IDF full kit wanker?
He should just throw himself into the frontlines already.
That's the guy!
To be fair to him, something he would likely never do for me, he did lose both of his legs to an IED while in Afghanistan so he might not be combat ready.
Joseph Overton is rolling in his grave.
RFK Jr. in town this Saturday AM right around the corner from me in Savannah. My 'bleeding heart conservative' sponsor wants to check him out; I am not keen on the prospect. Might take a recon by the theater to see the crazies though.
Expect dems to win that one, but still a good poll, you would expect that Biden would drag down the ballot at this point, but it doesn't really look like it, senate dems are consistently polling quite well.
Kennedy takes more from Trump than Biden, which is good, unfortunately(for dems this time), third parties always poll better when the election is far away than when its close, so a lot of disgruntled republicans will come home next year.
Was a poll from Ohio recently that has Brown in the lead, and i actually wish the lead was far smaller, strange as that sound.
Poll that has Brown up by 15 something points in Ohio is just not something i can look at with any sincerity, its in the same realm as outliers that has Trump winning with young voters and so on.
I like good polls for democrats, but polls within actual reality are nice.
Poll that has Brown up by 15 something points in Ohio is just not something i can look at with any sincerity, its in the same realm as outliers that has Trump winning with young voters and so on.
I like good polls for democrats, but polls within actual reality are nice.
Get what you are saying, but Brown being up low double digits is far less mentally perplexing than Trump winning with young voters. It's probably more like high single digits, but he could possibly be the safest Dem hold in the Senate.
Jesus fecking christ...
Their plan to increase the birthrate for whites seems to be rape. "Grab em by the pussy" can be their campaign slogan. Right wingers are fecking scum and add absolutely nothing to society.
This. Everything that comes out of the GOP's mouths is beyond disgusting.
Da fuq?
Its a good thing it won't be held today then.
The trend is terrible though. With Palestine meaning the Muslim American vote is split. Trump may well pull this off if he isn't in jail, and the world and the US will be in even worse shit than today.
Anything is possible in the US. The general issue with these polls is they are part name recognition and part recency bias - ie., Trump isn't in power and can't be blamed for the various ongoing things in the news, whereas Biden obviously can, which will affect the outcomes of polls an entire year out.
On the Israel-Palestine issue, its mostly younger American voters who are taking the pro-Palestine position and they have historically not shown up at the polls.
This was taken last year, and if correct, illustrates an inverse relationship between young Americans who are notoriously loud in demonstrations, but then don't end up voting.
Also, it appears the 7 Oct attacks have made the US public more, not less sympathetic to Israel, which might appear to be the other way around if one saw the protests in various US cities.
In the Nov a year before the election, Obama had a ~1.5 point lead over Romney.
In Nov 2019, Biden had a 10 point lead over Trump.
The only one to buck the trend is of course Trump-Clinton (4 point lead for Clinton), which featured a famous late vote switch and bad polling data.
The difference is massively obvious when you just glance at both these graphs
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
This is roughly the 10th time I've heard you say these polls reflect name recognition, which is a bit of a joke, because Biden and Trump are two people with close to 100% name recognition in the US. There is no likely voter wondering who these two are.
That doesn't negate the name recognition factor in hypothetical fantasy questions about who someone would vote for in non-existent elections right now.
But none of these are hypothetical fantasies, this is Trump v Biden.
For the second point, every poll is framed as "if this election was held today..." or "in 2024, are you planning to vote for ...". The only thing Biden has on his side is time to the election (though generally time is not on his side, given that his biggest weakness is age).
If we're using criteria like that then age isn't on Trump's side either as he's only a couple of years Biden's junior, nor is the fact that he could be walking around in an orange jump suit by next November (something a lot of his voters aren't considering at the moment).
Brown is certified in Ohio.