2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Raoul said:
Not particularly. He was ahead in most polls going in. People were just in disbelief that a Dem could win consecutive governorships in a state where Trump routed Biden by 26 points.
Click to expand...
The late polls were essentially tied right before the election.
 
Raoul said:
Not particularly. He was ahead in most polls going in. People were just in disbelief that a Dem could win consecutive governorships in a state where Trump routed Biden by 26 points.
Click to expand...
Dems do better in the ballot box than in the polls... and not for the first time. 2022 was a good example. That's why I'm not looking at the current 2024 polling.
 
The United said:
The late polls were essentially tied right before the election.
Click to expand...

They weren't tied at all. Bashear was up by a few and as much as 8 and 16 in some polls. Cameron was only up by 1 point in one poll. So collectively, Bashear was leading by a few points if you average them out.
 
Raoul said:
They weren't tied at all. Bashear was up by a few and as much as 8 and 16 in some polls. Cameron was only up by 1 point in one poll. So collectively, Bashear was leading by a few points if you average them out.
Click to expand...
I read on the weekends that some polls were getting tighter. For instance, "A new poll from Emerson College Polling, released Friday, shows Cameron, who has trailed in every public survey thus far, crawling to a tie with Beshear at 47% each, with 4% of voters undecided and 2% supporting someone else." USA today.
 
The United said:
I read on the weekends that some polls were getting tighter. For instance, "A new poll from Emerson College Polling, released Friday, shows Cameron, who has trailed in every public survey thus far, crawling to a tie with Beshear at 47% each, with 4% of voters undecided and 2% supporting someone else." USA today.
Click to expand...

Early voting begins in the the 2nd week of October, so the polls in the final couple of days wouldn't be as informative given that a significant swath of the population may have already voted by then. If anything, you can take all polls between 1 Oct to 6 Nov and make an average of them, which should provide a bit more context of what happened.
 
calodo2003 said:
Click to expand...

This is probably the first time that she has said something of reason.

I honestly don't understand the whole drama about the polls this week. The suburbs are gone for the the GOP, and that process started well before Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022. I live in Suburban America, and I see how suburban counties are changing every cycle.
 
This is why I don't get all crazy about these year out from election doomsday polls. Abortion rights has proven time and time again when its been on the ballot since the end of Roe v Wade that it is a get out the vote issue. Unlike other wedge issues, this actually motivates voters even in red states. GOP has constantly been on the wrong side of this issue with their messaging and archaic tactics.

It won't "go away" or fade into the background. Every politician will have to answer for their abortion rights stances. People can not be "excited" about Biden/Harris all they want too. But, he isn't on trial for multiple indictments. And he isn't leading a party that barely can keep a speaker of the House.
 
Hamnat said:
This is why I don't get all crazy about these year out from election doomsday polls. Abortion rights has proven time and time again when its been on the ballot since the end of Roe v Wade that it is a get out the vote issue. Unlike other wedge issues, this actually motivates voters even in red states. GOP has constantly been on the wrong side of this issue with their messaging and archaic tactics.

It won't "go away" or fade into the background. Every politician will have to answer for their abortion rights stances. People can not be "excited" about Biden/Harris all they want too. But, he isn't on trial for multiple indictments. And he isn't leading a party that barely can keep a speaker of the House.
Click to expand...
Pretty much this, especially the bold parts.
 
From what i have seen, it looks like Presley could run it close, but likely won't be enough.
 
Hamnat said:
This is why I don't get all crazy about these year out from election doomsday polls. Abortion rights has proven time and time again when its been on the ballot since the end of Roe v Wade that it is a get out the vote issue. Unlike other wedge issues, this actually motivates voters even in red states. GOP has constantly been on the wrong side of this issue with their messaging and archaic tactics.

It won't "go away" or fade into the background. Every politician will have to answer for their abortion rights stances. People can not be "excited" about Biden/Harris all they want too. But, he isn't on trial for multiple indictments. And he isn't leading a party that barely can keep a speaker of the House.
Click to expand...
There was someone on here who was adamant it was just a one cycle issue & it would fade into background noise soon after. Mindboggling.
 
Morty_ said:
I don't think pollsters are doing it on purpose, but how can they still have a good amount of them showing things like Trump actually winning with young voters? It boggles the mind, clearly they are doing something wrong when they get completely wild results like that.
Click to expand...
Just don't think the methodology is sound enough for a clear representation of voters in today's technology-driven age. Not calling cell phones for cost savings or rule avoidance simply will not generate enough consistency in modern polling imo.
 
calodo2003 said:
Click to expand...


A clear byproduct of Trumpism. Elections where Trump runs, he does well in (he got the 2nd highest popular vote in history last time despite losing). Elections where Trump isn't running, Republicans are almost consistently losing. This is why you don't turn your party into a cult of one.
 
Last edited:
Even though Presley likely will lose, Mississippi is probably the least movable state in the US, if you look at statewide elections over the last few cycles.

It appears very difficult to get any real shift there, and then you take into account classic voter suppression acts, no surprise it is where it is.
 
Morty_ said:
Even though Presley likely will lose, Mississippi is probably the least movable state in the US, if you look at statewide elections over the last few cycles.

It appears very difficult to get any real shift there, and then you take into account classic voter suppression acts, no surprise it is where it is.
Click to expand...

I can't think of the last good thing that came out of Mississippi
 
Hey, CNN. Please stop talking about Biden's polls, at least for tonight. Biden has a good change to win re-election. When Democrats show up, they win.
 
Yeah....considering dems are still overperforming almost every election, so excuse me for not believing that Trump will win Nevada by 10 points or whatever.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Hey, CNN. Please stop talking about Biden's polls, at least for tonight. Biden has a good change to win re-election. When Democrats show up, they win.
Click to expand...

But how else will MSNs drive engagement and views other than scaring the shit out of Democrats?

The United said:
I read it as "VAR". Goddam, PTSD from our games.
Click to expand...

I get this thing where my brain sees VAR for a second and then I realize, oh that's VRA. What does this mean?
 


Unfortunately it went the way as expected, still, overall a good election for dems.
 
adexkola said:
What I don't understand is how Youngkin won a state that's been blue in presidential elections since 2008.
Click to expand...

Because 2021 was a bad year for dems, and Youngkin appeaering as a bland, likable chap, perfect storm.
 
So, all in all, a terrible election for GOP, where the only saving grace is barely holding the governorship in Mississippi.
 
adexkola said:
What I don't understand is how Youngkin won a state that's been blue in presidential elections since 2008.
Click to expand...
He was running against someone that Virginia, our neighbors, have been tired of. And VA is weird: for governor, it votes for the opposing party of the president almost all the time.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.