Edited my post a bit above.
Anyway, I just don’t buy FL voting 10 points to the right of Texas as they are showing, that day will come, but not this cycle.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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Edited my post a bit above.
Anyway, I just don’t buy FL voting 10 points to the right of Texas as they are showing, that day will come, but not this cycle.
How on earth is Trump leading in some polls and has even got a sniff of a victory? It's ridiculous, the man is a lunatic.
Florida went off the deep end a while ago.
Texas has been trending bluer...ish
Surely makes sense?
10 points is too much, i agree, but i wouldn't be surprised if Texas votes to the left of Florida this cycle, by a couple of points.
Clinton lost by 1.2% and Biden by 3.4% despite a dismal ground game. Now we’ve seen that big a swing before like Ohio 2012-16 when it went from D+3 to R+8, but it’s also a smaller and much less diverse state.
Too much is made of De Santis 20 points margin in 2022, if we follow the same logic then PA isn’t in play this year as Shapiro won it by 15. I’ve never thought FL was ever really in play this cycle but that kind of cratering in such a big and diverse state in a presidential year is unheard of, and if true portents a lot of troubles elsewhere. Nate Silver was confident enough to take a 100k bet on FL margin <8, I reckon Cohn is sweating bullets trying to make sense of these numbers
It's truly depressing. It's been said over and over, but it's a huge indictment of America. The fact that so many people can't see he is a complete charlatan that doesn't know anything and only wants what's best for himself, is crazy. It's so incredibly obvious.
On the contrary, i'd say its great news for Harris, Florida electorate is a bit "special", so what they do there may not be representative of much for the rest of the country, they were really the only state that fell for the whole "anti-woke"-thing, hook, line and sinker, rest of the US didn't really care.
Sure, Trump may not win it by 13, but i don't doubt that this state in particular went off the deep-end.
There appears to be in the US millions who are all 'out of step' just like him...... 'it takes one to know one' is a popular saying.
Now, its behind NYT paywall, but Cohn is not making excuses for Florida poll, he sticks by it, for what it is worth.
Seems to undermine the Ukraine messaging about putler too.
Not Russia or China but fecking Iran, talk about being a puppet for Israel's interest.
That’s a no go, but can’t say the possibility of backing Israel to the hill for a protracted all out conflict in Lebanon isn’t there.
Tbh though after Trump wiped his arse with Obama’s deal, there’s no trust on either side for a diplomatic solution.
China in her second term. Go big or go home; set the whole thing on fire.
Doing interviews is only of use if you have good answers.
She faced some tough questions....
Whitaker said border crossing tripled under Biden/Harris - she didn't have an answer for it.
How are you going to pay for your spending plans? No clear answer.
And I thought the question Whitaker asked along the lines of "You have said Trump is a racist. So how do you explain half of the country voting for him?". That is a real gotcha question where there is no great answer.
Glad that 60 Mins made it very clear that Trump chickened out.
Where is that info coming from?
Looked here and the returns are around even...
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Full overtime
She's saying all the right things from a foreign policy perspective to win an American election, that's for sure.
I think anti-China sentiment is a lot higher than anti-Iran sentiment, especially in states which have lost manufacturing jobs. I also think anti-Russia sentiment is very unifying among the party base.
Anti-Iran sentiment is steadily high among pro-Israel Americans. The only reason it isn't as high as China and Russia is because Trump spent his entire time in office making China the pantomime villain of American trade and foreign policy.
I don't disagree with you that Americans love Israel, love killing Palestinians, and wouldn't mind wiping Iran off the map if it came at no human and material cost.
But the question was about greatest addversary, not about who to kill next.
The question is about American national security, so the two superpowers would rightfully be the main concerns.
But not to Harris.
Harris will fall in line with standard US policy. Iran is now more than ever, in the crosshairs, especially if Trump wins.
My point was that it was a stupid answer not reflecting, at all, what voters think of as the greatest adversary.
Dick Cheney did endorse her after all.
No one has a clue who is going to win because no one knows what polling errors will be for this cycle.
I really don't think an 'overtime' question (that in my view was answered purely looking at Iran, not the voters as an attempt at showing how serious she is) is going to make any difference.
Hope she keeps in the spotlight, and really needs her surrogates to get out there more too.
Hope she keeps in the spotlight, and really needs her surrogates to get out there more too.
Its not going to make a difference, but it does put her on public record about Iran, such that if she's elected and has to deal with a military decision about the region, her being anti-Iranian regime won't come as a surprise to anyone.
Kamala is killing it on The View.
Is she getting any tough questions from Whoopie and Sonny Hostin ?
Getting grilled by Joy Behar.
Finally a good answer on the "how are you going to pay for it" question.
With another huge hurricane inbound and Trump being a known climate change denier, who welcomes the prospect of rising sea levels, on the count of it making more beachfront properties. One would think there was a political opportunity to reach people in Florida, Georgia, The Carolinas etc and inform them there is only one party that wants face the challenge of climate change.
One would think the environment would be a top issue for Floridians who are getting bombarded by catastrophic weather events every year.
The science on climate change is as definitive as that smoking is to lung cancer. Yet the Florida Gov doesn't want to believe it....
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/17/1252...ll-that-deletes-climate-change-from-state-law
Are these people really just burying their head in the sand on the issue? Their insurance policies are skyrocketing in Florida to a point where places may be uninhabitable in years to come.
One would think the environment would be a top issue for Floridians who are getting bombarded by catastrophic weather events every year.
The science on climate change is as definitive as that smoking is to lung cancer. Yet the Florida Gov doesn't want to believe it....
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/17/1252...ll-that-deletes-climate-change-from-state-law
Are these people really just burying their head in the sand on the issue? Their insurance policies are skyrocketing in Florida to a point where places may be uninhabitable in years to come.
General thoughts on Harris' 60 minutes interview? Can't say she impressed me.