Agreed. The hope is we see a lot more battleground state polls now that the debate is done and there aren't any other big events scheduled.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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Agreed. The hope is we see a lot more battleground state polls now that the debate is done and there aren't any other big events scheduled.
To what extent does favorability matter?
Harris around zero, Trump is around -10, Hillary was not as disliked as Trump, but she wasn't far off his ratings either, solid in the negatives, i can't find the numbers, but i think Biden had positive approvals leading up to 2020 election.
Can the cult and the EC alone carry you, when you are trailing your opponent by 10% in approvals?
Harris around zero, Trump is around -10, Hillary was not as disliked as Trump, but she wasn't far off his ratings either, solid in the negatives, i can't find the numbers, but i think Biden had positive approvals leading up to 2020 election.
Can the cult and the EC alone carry you, when you are trailing your opponent by 10% in approvals?
I am don't know anything on how is counted but could it be very simplified
------------------------------ Harris----------------Trump
1,000,000 ---Approve 100%------Approve 0% -------Will end voting Harris
1,000,000 ---Approve 20%--------Approve 100% ---Will end voting Trump
You have a 10% more approval of Harris but 50/50 votes
But again, I dont know how the approval and disapproval numbers works
In 2020 PA was Biden 4.7% (538) vs 1.2 (Election night). Current averaging Harris 0.7%. Hopefully the new polls after the debate are like this last one to have a bit more margin. Looking towards a toss up with the margin of error
The same old debate, you, and most others, believe this election is like 2020, and Trump will be underestimated by a rather big margin, i simply don't.
I believe 2022 is more representative, dems being underestimated this time around, but, i don't have the energy to go through this again.
So you dont think is a toss up?
Also is funny that you believe that Fetterman, one of the Biggest underdog wins in PA is very representative. Do you know who they were in the ballot in 2020? Trump and Harris as VP. Which elections are more similar?
Again, you are convinced this is like 2020, i'm not, we have gone through this before, i just don't have the energy for it, you have your opinion, i have mine.
It is what it is, we will find out in less than two months.
It is what it is, we will find out in less than two months.
Agreed
It wasn't a big underdog win at all though, if you just disregarded all the garbage polls that dropped in October, it very much made sense that Fetterman won.
But we are discussing two different elections, and pre-dobbs and post-dobbs, so you stick to your theory, i stick to mine.
Ones a horrible, demented old cnut chasing his last few synapses down the plughole, and the other is a traumatised, horrible old cnut forever in the sights of the next unhinged gun nut. This election cycle has wrought some karmic justice.
I hope they both live long drawn out lives.
I hope they both live long drawn out lives.
Well, i guess the models have their out, to keep Trump as favorite.
Given the general 48 hours of news cycles, I hope to hear a lot from Harris today. Don't even care on what, she needs to get back to pushing an agenda and getting that as the focus. She's too damn quiet at the moment.
538 has this pollster ranked 95th. Matt Towery runs the poll, he's a former Republican Georgia representative and appears on radio shows likes Sean Hannity and goes on Fox News often, recently on the Ingraham Angle bigging up Trump. I'm giving this poll a decent dose of bias.
Does anyone know of sources for an electoral college map based on the recent polling?
270towin.com
Is that Nate Silver from 538 (which has now been bought by the Washington Post or someone)?
A spectre is haunting the United States
Yea we won’t stand by while an aggressor invades its neighbour with impunity, except for when we do of course.
Right, because Russian foreign policy has changed all that much from the Soviet Union right?
Ukrainian war is just classic brezhnev doctrine but citing different reasons rather than maintaining socialism.
Deplorable people doing deplorable things.
I'm not sure the substance of calling him a "communist" in the ad was because of a thorough assessment of Brezhnev doctrine.
538 got bought by ABC, and I don't think Silver has anything to do with 270towin.
It's a good page to get an overview and to play around with different scenarios on their map.
Looks like a pretty good ad for a candidate seeking independent votes in the middle.
There's no evidence that they've fixed their methodology which saw them underestimate Trump in 2020 though is there? You can't blame people for assuming that the same thing will happen.
Also, Trump's numbers have been significicantly underestimated in 2016 and 2020, so the logical approach for Harris would be to campaign as if this will be the case again this year. If its true, then the problem will have been mitigated through campaigning. If its not true, then all the better.
I agree that the Harris campaign should assume the worst scenario when it comes to polling and the state of the race.
However, they should be careful about repeating the “we’re the underdogs” narrative in such an explicit manner. It’s not good either.
Campaign hard, get people to volunteer, make phone calls, knock on doors, etc. But don’t keep saying time and again that the odds are against you. It could be depressing.
'I won't be missing you' woman beater
I agree with this. She's saying a bit too often.
Possibly some early signs of post debate movement by way of the Morning Consult, Suffolk/USA Today, and Monmouth national polls. Being plus 6 is definitely outside the margin of error and in win territory for Harris.
Oh wow her best poll yet. Definitely a post-debate bump, let's see if she can maintain that momentum (probably not).
I take it the other way. That reminder that this is a historic campaign coming in from behind late in the season. And needing the funds and energy and efforts to not slow down at all till the last minute. I think its more of a mobilizing message especially in fundraising. To not get cocky about polling if its in her favor, or any news reports that her momentum is up.
There is the balanced we will win message the team is presenting, but i think its a healthy amount of don't get cocky, keep donating keep registering people to vote and making voting plans.
This new Monmouth method of not pushing learners in H2H is infuriating.
The only good thing out of that poll is the ‘definitely not vote’ number, showing she has more to work with, although we already knew Trump’s ceiling.
The only good thing out of that poll is the ‘definitely not vote’ number, showing she has more to work with, although we already knew Trump’s ceiling.
Taylor Swift endorsement bumb 
Got the Billie Eilish vote now too.