Was just about to post that. I think we can safely say that the PA one is not right - encouraging but no way is she up by 6 there.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
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Was just about to post that. I think we can safely say that the PA one is not right - encouraging but no way is she up by 6 there.
What are the top 3 or 5 pollsters?
I find it hard to believe WI is only 1 point. I think she wins the state comfortably, and by comfortably I mean by enough to avoid the most extreme maga shenanigans.
If anything you could swap WI and PA, right?
I don't know if they're as good as it gets but they get a mention here: https://abcnews.go.com/538/best-pollsters-america/story?id=105563951
All of it contributed to the inflation the Biden Administration had to fight off.
Tariffs are always inflationary. If the average American is too stupid to understand this, than good night America.
I'm living in the Philippines and here upcountry people are indeed uneducated and voted for the idiot Duterte in 2016.
But common we are talking about the US, the global super power. Even in rural states people got some basic education, which should be more than enough to understand that China or the EU won't pay for Trump's tariffs but the US consumers. This isn't rocket science.
Trump said he'd make them pay, so they'll pay.
(Is the kind of logical thinking were dealing with).
Are they just throwing dices to come up with these polls?
Wasn't Harris like 5% up in Wisconsin?
Unbelievable. In Germany everybody is puzzled (and terrified) how Trump can get even 10% of the votes.
On other hand the world is probably also stunned about the success of the AfD and BSW in Germany.
But compared to the German economy the American economy under Biden looks great.
Do you guys consider the trade war with China to be a bad thing in principal? Or the way it was actually executed.
The Quinnipiac poll is rated as a "B." How reliable are these ratings though?
Trade wars are never a good thing, ultimately the consumer always pays, but sometimes you have to have tarriffs to protect your own industries, especially ones that are considered strategically important, from unfair competition
They are A- on Silver's site. The ratings are typically issued based on how the polls have performed in the past, weighted against their past biases towards Ds or Rs.
Its bad for the US and China given how both economies are interdependent on one another. Its made doubly bad since Trump doesn't understand how tariffs actually work.
Even if the number is a bit of an outlier, its good news for Harris since its a large sample size of likely voters and its also the most recent PA poll by a quality pollster.
Trade wars always hurt the average Joe.
Tariffs are a thing of the past as is Trump. Nothing else than a hidden tax.
Didn't the Dems help the Teamsters pensions? No endorsement.
There was some buzz they would endorse Harris, but at the same time O'Brien did speak at the R convention last month, so not endorsing either isn't exactly a shock.
Any chance this helps swing the needle some more?
So I don't disagree that Trade Wars hurt the average Joe.
This is where I'm going to put my hands up, and admit my bias, but I'm of the belief that any short-medium term pain is not only inevitable but is justifiable in stopping China (in it's current iteration) from posing a threat to the West. To me, the problem is existential and it's either short-medium term economic pain or an existential crisis for the Western belief system and way of life.
I think that is a tad dramatic.
Still rattled by the comment about people leaving his rallies.
But good to hear he doesn't ramble, as he explains thoroughly, in a long rambling explanation.
But good to hear he doesn't ramble, as he explains thoroughly, in a long rambling explanation.
Yeah, I know it isn't a popular opinion or a broadly recognised viewpoint, but the Red Scare is real for me.
Given the MoE it’s feasible that it’s Harris +3/4.
For what it’s worth , Joshua Smithley, the top local election junkie for PA said he has it 65/35 for Harris with outcome ranging from Harris +4 to Trump +2.
Talking about outliers, Gallup just released a favourability survey that has Trump more popular than Harris (46-53 to 44-54). Now that’s a doozy.
at the last partHow tariffs are going to stop China? They don't like the sanctions didn't stop Putin.
It's all rhetoric and in the end will hurt the end consumer.
Even export sanctions only work for a limited period of time. Today Huawei is stronger than ever and way more innovative than apple.
Being German I can also say so far it has been only America that spied on us. Or at least China wasn't as dumb to get caught pants down.
US got "caught" because they had a whistleblower sent to a free media.
In China, there is nobody to whistleblow to.
Huawei stronger than ever? Huh? Maybe I missed something but it's numbers are...not looking good. Everything is geared now to it's domestic market and even then it's propped up by CCP support.
I believe Huawei is stronger than ever because of its multiple branches. The cell branch plumeted hard, but who knows if they end developing their own competitive chips and iOs. They are still strong in china, that is not a small market
They targeted the Biden campaign by sending them emails/data from the Trump campaign? Surely the other way round.
Good to see.
One caveat, though: winning PA and MI by 5-6 points, and only one point advantage in WI sounds strange. But, that’s polling, I guess…
I thought I was reading wrong. Maybe the Trump campaign details are so disturbing they’re something you don’t want to know??
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...lvania/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Bit less than what you would hope for, though not bad either.
Marist :
Michigan Harris +5
Wisconsin Harris +1
Pennsylvania tied
Bit less than what you would hope for, though not bad either.
Marist :
Michigan Harris +5
Wisconsin Harris +1
Pennsylvania tied
Basically 2020 redux with MI trending a tad bluer (was +3)
That being said, their crosstab for PA is a bit funky, Harris up 12 pts among women and Trump up 10 among men, so are they projecting a higher men turnout than women? I’m not, as a rule, down for poll unskewing but something isn’t right there. Marist is a top pollster and nailed the Fetterman race though, so open to being corrected.
I'm more optimistic than most here, when it comes to Harris vs Trump, but that does not mean i'm not realistic about things, you have those believing Florida and Texas are in play(maybe not here, but other forums, at least), i'm not one of them, and i'm well aware that the rust-belt+Nevada is her most realistic and easiest path to the white house, anything beyond is a bonus.
Debate-bump will fade soon enough i think, as it usually does, and then, it will get closer come October.
Debate-bump will fade soon enough i think, as it usually does, and then, it will get closer come October.
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Suffolk nailed Fetterman race too, come to think of it.
So, just average it out, i guess.