He misses Biden so much, almost cute.
Ironically exactly the mental degradation issues that caused Biden to drop out. Yet the media are not highlighting it for Trump?
He misses Biden so much, almost cute.
Yeah the founders of Tenet weren’t indicted when 2 producers were, so my guess is they were secretly indicted a while ago and is now cooperating.I guess we are to infer from this that the Trump campaign is concerned some of these right wing grifters who have been taking Russian money might have been flipped?
Yeah the founders of Tenet weren’t directed when 2 producers were, so my guess is they were secretly indicted a while ago and is now cooperating.
If you look at some of these state numbers and figure they are off by quite a bit? Well, you are not the only one.
Nate is banking hard on "post-convention"-bump, it might have been in the past, but not necessarily much of a thing anymore.
Question is, if he will adjust, or double down on it, time will tell.
If you look at some of these state numbers and figure they are off by quite a bit? Well, you are not the only one.
Nate is banking hard on "post-convention"-bump, it might have been in the past, but not necessarily much of a thing anymore.
Question is, if he will adjust, or double down on it, time will tell.
There's nothing particularly mysterious about Silver's numbers. Harris had a lot of momentum last month because she was new and not Biden. That momentum has since exhausted itself and Trump has made small gains in most swing states. It turns out the convention bump many were expecting actually happened before and during, not after, the convention. The slight percentage disparity in favor of Trump winning is probably down to the simple fact that more things have to go right for her to win, than they do for Trump. If he wins just one rust belt state, her probability of winning suddenly plummets to about 15%, so a lot more can go wrong for her than him.
Still, Silver has the race characterized as a "toss up", which is spot on. We don't know who is winning because most polls are within the margin of error.
I guess I just don't understand the logic of a model that says Trump is like 65% likely to win PA when every poll seems to have it tied, at worst.
Also, this pollercoaster stuff is the route to an early grave. Stop it! (says a fellow addict)
I guess I just don't understand the logic of a model that says Trump is like 65% likely to win PA when every poll seems to have it tied, at worst.
Also, this pollercoaster stuff is the route to an early grave. Stop it! (says a fellow addict)
Silver admits himself this is largely about post-convention bumps(or lack of), his model will then naturally assumes that Harris will crater further from where she is currently, when there isn't much to back that up right now, hopefully his model adjusts, if polling remains as of now.
As far as swing state polling, its all close, but he keeps including low-rated pollsters like Trafalgar, he knew they were bad in 2022, he knows they are bad now, it feels like he is committing to the same mistakes, as he did a couple of years ago.
The polling has changed very little in battlegrounds for a while, but his model is the only one that has changed rather drastically, again, because he is giving Trump an in-built advantage in absence of no Harris convention-bump.
If the pictures of Trump with Epstein were damaging, they’ve already done the damage.
Posting content with conspiracy theories in it, kind of renders it all pointless.
I’d love it not to be the case, but the Epstein shit is an utter irrelevance now.
Allan Lichtman has picked Harris to win.
Listening to Harris is as bad as it can get
Allan Lichtman has picked Harris to win.
To be fair, the UK just finished 14 years of Tory governments.Why are Americans so fecking thick?
Listening to Harris is as bad as it can get
Still not as bad as listening to Kamala, she’s as bad as it gets.
It’s the famous weave, it comes together beautifully.Talks alot without saying anything.
Florida polls tend to be tight for Democrats until the actual results come in, revealing the state has shifted solidly red. This has been the pattern for the past few election cycles. Texas is similar, but this time, Democrats aren’t even close in the polls.
For Texas:Florida polls tend to be tight for Democrats until the actual results come in, revealing the state has shifted solidly red. This has been the pattern for the past few election cycles. Texas is similar, but this time, Democrats aren’t even close in the polls.
For Texas:
2012: +16
2016: +9
2020: +5.5
The fact that Harris is within 4 points shows that she is close enough. Same for Allred. Trump and Cruz are the favorites there, of course, but the two Dems seem to be doing well enough so far in the campaign. We’ll see what happens in November, but so far I have reasons to believe that the Democrats have a shot there.
Yeah, referencing a post from previouslyI assume you are joking?
He will have forgotten it before he even walks on stage and wind up completely winging it, resulting in exchanges like this.