2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

I mean, c'mon, who the feck is buying this shit?


Millions of Americans evidently. The same folk who bought into the narrative that Obama isn't an American, or that Hillary Clinton was running pizza pedo camps.

Interestingly they don't entertain the solid mounting evidence of (convicted) Trump's friendship and association with (convicted) notorious paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

Or better yet just quote Trump himself - "I love uneducated people".
 
So no more released gang members, prisoners, drug dealers & rapists. Now more hyper intelligent homicidal maniacs and serial killers with exquisite tastes for fine wines, good cuisine, classical literature and opera?

I mean........
 
It would seem a good amount of US liberals are just as invested in "owning the cons", as the conservatives is in "owning the libs", that much is clear, when they start bragging about the support of war criminals.
 
Are they bragging about Cheney?

Depends on who you mean by "they", but just liberals in general, mainstream media, comments here and there, the general feeling is that anybody who opposes Trump is by definition okay now.
 



And there it is. Amongst all the gibberish and bullshit and false promises is something he will do and has wanted to do and say all along.

Btw, the best thing he said today was when he said he would pass an executive order to eliminate all drug cartell presidents and gang members on his first day in office.

:lol:
 
I take it more as "even neo-con scum would prefer to cross party lines than to support Trump. That's how fecking bad Trump is."
 



And there it is. Amongst all the gibberish and bullshit and false promises is something he will do and has wanted to do and say all along.

Btw, the best thing he said today was when he said he would pass an executive order to eliminate all drug cartell presidents and gang members on his first day in office.

:lol:

That first day is gonna be busy 'cos he's also stopping the war in Ukraine that day, mind you last time he was sorting out healthcare in day 1, that one went well :nono:
 
That first day is gonna be busy 'cos he's also stopping the war in Ukraine that day, mind you last time he was sorting out healthcare in day 1, that one went well :nono:

As did Mexico paying for the wall and infrastructure week...... That week being almost as long as the Proclaimers taking to walk those fecking 500 miles..
 
I mean, c'mon, who the feck is buying this shit?




Fiction vs reality

Can you imagine you're a parent and your son leaves the house and you say, Jimmy, I love you so much. Go have a good day in school and your son comes back in a plastic bag because of school shooting
 
As did Mexico paying for the wall and infrastructure week...... That week being almost as long as the Proclaimers taking to walk those fecking 500 miles..
Don't forget about his son in law, Jared, who will solve the Palestinian issue too.

That went very well also as, unfortunately, the whole world is witnessing over the last year.
 
NYT/Siena poll is probably the single worst poll for Harris, since she became the nominee, you would hope this is an outlier, but they don't tend to be off by much.

Big take-away is that a lot of voters just don't know her, or what she is about, she definitely needs to hold interview and town halls, you don't really get to know a candidate just with rallies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/08/us/politics/trump-and-harris-times-siena-poll.html
 
NYT/Siena poll is probably the single worst poll for Harris, since she became the nominee, you would hope this is an outlier, but they don't tend to be off by much.

Big take-away is that a lot of voters just don't know her, or what she is about, she definitely needs to hold interview and town halls, you don't really get to know a candidate just with rallies.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/08/us/politics/trump-and-harris-times-siena-poll.html
I'm not surprised tbh. There's plenty of criticism towards Harris for being vague on policy but also seemingly avoiding the public & media as much as possible.
 
I'm not surprised tbh. There's plenty of criticism towards Harris for being vague on policy but also seemingly avoiding the public & media as much as possible.
And it’s well-deserved. I think she’s messed up by not being out there and riding the momentum. Unless she’s as bad at it as the Trump campaign says, there’s no good reason for her not to be out there doing at least some press.
 
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And it’s well-deserved. I think she’s messed up by not being out there and exploiting the momentum. Unless she’s as bad at it as the Trump campaign says, there’s no good reason for her not be out there doing at least some press.
I agree. Though she is on the trail, a tv interview just has more reach.
 
According to Nate Silver Harris has a 2.5 national point lead. That will not be enough to win the electoral college.

She needs to steamroller Trump in the debate.
 
According to Nate Silver Harris has a 2.5 national point lead. That will not be enough to win the electoral college.

She needs to steamroller Trump in the debate.

Yeah, things have definitely gone in Trump's direction over the past week. Its looking increasingly bleak for Harris at the moment.
 
In Stolen Pride, Hochschild locates the heart of Trump’s appeal to rural voters in emotions of pride and shame — including pride in their region’s traditions and shame in what it’s become in an era of declining coal jobs and rising drug addiction.
 
I missed that.

Do you have any explanation as to why?

Mainly because Trump has been making consistent gains in all of the swing states over the past couple of weeks. See the "change from last week" column in Nate Silver's latest forecast below. When taken alongside the results of the highly rated NYT poll that actually has Trump up nationally, it suggests ominous clouds on the horizon for Dems.

eSA7AbP.png

Trump has surprisingly been on a consistently upward trajectory since RFK pulled out and endorsed him, after which he gained a whopping 3 points in the national polling average.

o08j2Z1.png

All of this has led to a widening gap in Silver's "who will win" probability chart, which actually had Harris in the lead as recently as a couple of weeks ago.

tm2qJax.png

That's not to say Harris can't win, but things are beginning to ominously trend towards Trump, and given that she wasn't a particularly strong candidate to begin with (see her 2019 results), the chances that she is going to regain her previous momentum are looking increasingly bleak by the day.
 
Things might have moved a bit towards Trump, but worth mentioning that Nate's model is the outlier.
 
Things might have moved a bit towards Trump, but worth mentioning that Nate's model is the outlier.

There's a political maxim that says if you're arguing with the polling you're probably losing. Harris is clearly not the same candidate of three weeks ago before any scrutiny was applied to her or her policies by the media and Trump began going negative on her. What we're seeing now, are the results of the press and her opponent challenging her policies (or lack thereof).
 
There's a political maxim that says if you're arguing with the polling you're probably losing. Harris is clearly not the same candidate of three weeks ago before any scrutiny was applied to her or her policies by the media and Trump began going negative on her. What we're seeing now, are the results of the press and her opponent challenging her policies (or lack thereof).

Come on, you know very well that Nate still hasn't "fixed" his convention-thing yet, i'm not arguing with polling, if it was based solely on polls, his model would be about 50/50, as the rest.
 
Come on, you know very well that Nate still hasn't "fixed" his convention-thing yet, i'm not arguing with polling, if it was based solely on polls, his model would be about 50/50, as the rest.

There's nothing wrong with his model or any of the others. The numbers are simply what they are. If anything, we need more polls to come out to verify or refute the current trend.
 
There's a political maxim that says if you're arguing with the polling you're probably losing. Harris is clearly not the same candidate of three weeks ago before any scrutiny was applied to her or her policies by the media and Trump began going negative on her. What we're seeing now, are the results of the press and her opponent challenging her policies (or lack thereof).
Thank god the media is here to help save us from the policies of Kamala Harris
 
If it was as easy "the numbers simply are what they are", then we wouldn't need models.

The point was you can't blame the polls for the numbers they cough up if you don't like the results. If anything, you weight them appropriately based on past success ratio, then apply a bias to them, which most models already do.
 
Mainly because Trump has been making consistent gains in all of the swing states over the past couple of weeks.
How? The town hall at Fox was a joke, can't see how he could win undecided voters let alone make Harris voters flip with such appearances.

His rallies are always the same old whining about the stolen election, the end of the US is Harris wins or even the end of the world due to WW3.

I have many friends with different political positions but all are united that Trump is just clown. Taxes will be 4 or even 5 times higher. Of course Harris will tax every US citizen with over 100%.
His claims are so ridiculous, it's even not funny anymore.
Thus I'm pretty perplex Trump could turn it around with such performances. Scary times.
 
Mainly because Trump has been making consistent gains in all of the swing states over the past couple of weeks. See the "change from last week" column in Nate Silver's latest forecast below. When taken alongside the results of the highly rated NYT poll that actually has Trump up nationally, it suggests ominous clouds on the horizon for Dems.

eSA7AbP.png

Trump has surprisingly been on a consistently upward trajectory since RFK pulled out and endorsed him, after which he gained a whopping 3 points in the national polling average.

o08j2Z1.png

All of this has led to a widening gap in Silver's "who will win" probability chart, which actually had Harris in the lead as recently as a couple of weeks ago.

tm2qJax.png

That's not to say Harris can't win, but things are beginning to ominously trend towards Trump, and given that she wasn't a particularly strong candidate to begin with (see her 2019 results), the chances that she is going to regain her previous momentum are looking increasingly bleak by the day.
Thanks a bunch.

On a side note, I'd have never guessed that RFK dropping out and disgracing himself by endorsing Trump would have such an impact.
 
How? The town hall at Fox was a joke, can't see how he could win undecided voters let alone make Harris voters flip with such appearances.

His rallies are always the same old whining about the stolen election, the end of the US is Harris wins or even the end of the world due to WW3.

I have many friends with different political positions but all are united that Trump is just clown. Taxes will be 4 or even 5 times higher. Of course Harris will tax every US citizen with over 100%.
His claims are so ridiculous, it's even not funny anymore.
Thus I'm pretty perplex Trump could turn it around with such performances. Scary times.
He has an energized, cult-like base. Harris does not. She has to perform almost flawlessly like Biden did in 2020 to win.
 
Well the one thing I know for sure is that Harris can't change 2019 today. So. There's that.

I just can't get over the media narrative. It's on Harris to articulate detailed policy positions, explain how everything she said in 2019 has changed, and why and also make literally no mistakes at the debate.

Meanwhile, Trump makes up impossible policies, has an economic plan that is 150 years old and would blow up the market and inflation, won't tell anyone how he'll do anything and the media are like yep. Back to Harris and her vagueness.
 
Well the one thing I know for sure is that Harris can't change 2019 today. So. There's that.

I just can't get over the media narrative. It's on Harris to articulate detailed policy positions, explain how everything she said in 2019 has changed, and why and also make literally no mistakes at the debate.

Meanwhile, Trump makes up impossible policies, has an economic plan that is 150 years old and would blow up the market and inflation, won't tell anyone how he'll do anything and the media are like yep. Back to Harris and her vagueness.

Honestly the US Media deserve Trump. Just sucks for the rest of us.
 
Well the one thing I know for sure is that Harris can't change 2019 today. So. There's that.

I just can't get over the media narrative. It's on Harris to articulate detailed policy positions, explain how everything she said in 2019 has changed, and why and also make literally no mistakes at the debate.

Meanwhile, Trump makes up impossible policies, has an economic plan that is 150 years old and would blow up the market and inflation, won't tell anyone how he'll do anything and the media are like yep. Back to Harris and her vagueness.

Her main problem is she doesn't know whether to cast herself as an incumbent or an outsider. Trump is benefiting from that because he is largely running as the guy who can alleviate the high cost of living and inflation that happened under Biden (and Harris). So she needs to figure out who she is and whether she wants to plant her flag as a continuation of Bidenomics or whether she wants to disassociate herself from the administration whose agenda she has dedicated the past 4 years working to advance.
 
Her main problem is she doesn't know whether to cast herself as an incumbent or outsider. Trump is benefiting from that because he is largely running as the guy who can alleviate the high cost of living and inflation that happened under Biden (and Harris). So she needs to figure out who she is and whether she wants to plant her flag as a continuation of Bidenomics or whether she wants to disassociate herself from the administration whose agenda she has dedicated the past 4 years working to advance.
I'm kind of shocked at how the campaign isn't reacting to this. I hope they're just so focussed on Tuesday that until then everything else is delayed.

But it does my head in that Trump can even tout that he will 'solve inflation' with tariffs, and the media are like yeah, ok cool, that's just big Donald with his not understanding how tariffs or inflation work. That's fine for a President. Our ratings are amazing right now. Everything is awesome.

This shouldn't be a contest. An upsisde down mop in a bucket is less dangerous to the US than Donald Trump. And yet the media are doing everything possible to create a race, and they're going to carry him to victory. He's a f*cking rapist, a convicted criminal a convicted sexual assaulter and most importantly he committed actual treason. Oh and was impeached twice. But please, tell me more about changes to the goddamn child tax credit or something before Harris can get my vote.