2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

November 14 2023
gaffs said:
I was saying it months ago. I know it is early and polls can be wrong, but Trump is going to win.

The criminal trials are not hurting him and it would seem that some may not be heard before the election, especially the classified docs trial, which would be the easiest to explain to the public.

If and when he debates Biden, he will sweep the floor with him. To the public, he will seem far younger, even if he will talk absolute BS.

At what point does Biden wake up and realize he could be about to let Trump back in?
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Raoul said:
The same argument could've been made 4 years ago when Biden beat Trump in the debates then proceeded to win the election with an unprecedented amount of votes.
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gaffs said:
Though post Saturday, we are now in a very different space where i feel all the Trump baggage will be forgotten about by swing voters and they will vote for him because they sympathize with him for being shot at and may be angry at "the left" for being the one who took said shot.
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In that case, they were always Trump supporters and they'd have silently voted for him anyway.

All that's changed is that they just get an excuse to openly say that this single incident is the only reason why they voted for him.

That is, unless you believe that all it would take is for Biden to have a life threatening situation happen to him and these geese would all change their minds back again because it's now one all.
 
Raoul said:
This is irrelevant since there's no time for ads to redefine her in a positive way with early voting starting in just over two months.



MAGA have been attacking Biden since day one and have even resorted to prosecuting his son. That has an effect on sufficient fence sitting independents to in conjunction with economic conditions, bring his numbers down. And they have come down.



See her campaign performance during the 2020 primaries to get a sense of her viability. She's a fabrication of a drug deal between Biden and Clyburn, not a legitimate candidate who should be seriously viewed as POTUS material.
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I don't think she needs "redefining". She needs to be properly introduced to the American public. Be it with Ads, interviews, campaign stops or hopefully another debate. She could goad Trump into another debate. Biden may want one, but it is a massive risk.

As i said, she is far from perfect, but many Americans would rather vote for a sh1t on a stick, than the two candidates that have been presented.

Americans would rather vote for a strong man liar than and honest but weak old man. I said this months ago about the debates. I said Biden would look like a cadava next to Trump but you poo pooed it seighting the 2020 debates. Biden has aged a lot in 4 years.

Ideally though, i think the best way is for any potential candidates to thrash it out in Chicago at the DNC.
That would inject some interest back into the party. At the moment, the Dems are flatlining like Bidens heartbeat monitor will do in a couple of years time.
 
erikcred said:
In that case, they were always Trump supporters and they'd have silently voted for him anyway.

All that's changed is that they just get an excuse to openly say that this single incident is the only reason why they voted for him.

That is, unless you believe that all it would take is for Biden to have a life threatening situation happen to him and these geese would all change their minds back again because it's now one all.
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Or maybe they would have gone with Biden, but they see him as too old and now they see Trump as quasi-invincible.
 
gaffs said:
I don't think she needs "redefining". She needs to be properly introduced to the American public. Be it with Ads, interviews, campaign stops or hopefully another debate. She could goad Trump into another debate. Biden may want one, but it is a massive risk.

As i said, she is far from perfect, but many Americans would rather vote for a sh1t on a stick, than the two candidates that have been presented.

Americans would rather vote for a strong man liar than and honest but weak old man. I said this months ago about the debates. I said Biden would look like a cadava next to Trump but you poo pooed it seighting the 2020 debates. Biden has aged a lot in 4 years.

Ideally though, i think the best way is for any potential candidates to thrash it out in Chicago at the DNC.
That would inject some interest back into the party. At the moment, the Dems are flatlining like Bidens heartbeat monitor will do in a couple of years time.
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Here are Harris' negatives. Unlike Biden, she is young and can finish sentences. So what is her excuse for these numbers ? The simplest answer is she is unpopular and doesn't connect with voters. Therefore it would be a fool's errand to suddenly dump Biden and go with her, expecting a different result.

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Raoul said:
Here are Harris' negatives. Unlike Biden, she is young and can finish sentences. So what is her excuse for these numbers ? The simplest answer is she is unpopular and doesn't connect with voters. Therefore it would be a fool's errand to suddenly dump Biden and go with her, expecting a different result.

XUKr4f7.png
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Yet still better than Bidens....
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As you well know. Approval numbers for President and VP will always be closely tied together.
 
gaffs said:
Yet still better than Bidens....
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They are within a percentage point of one another at a time when Biden is the one getting hit with unprecedented criticism that he should drop out. Her approval rating should therefore be closer to 50 to be viable. The fact that it isn't, doesn't inspire confidence she would be the Dem savior if Biden drops out.
 
gaffs said:
Or maybe they would have gone with Biden, but they see him as too old and now they see Trump as quasi-invincible.
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I think you're being too kind to them. I just find it very hard to believe that a voter who knew the dangers of Trump and wasn't going to vote for him will suddenly change their mind because his ear got nicked by a rando.

Especially when nothing else has changed or is likely to change. I mean, it's not even like Trump is going to be a changed person with a new-found appreciation for life with a completely different outlook on fundamental issues like healthcare or gun control as a result of this experience.
 
erikcred said:
I think you're being too kind to them. I just find it very hard to believe that a voter who knew the dangers of Trump and wasn't going to vote for him will suddenly change their mind because his ear got nicked by a rando.

Especially when nothing else has changed or is likely to change. I mean, it's not even like Trump is going to be a changed person with a new-found appreciation for life with a completely different outlook on fundamental issues like healthcare or gun control as a result of this experience.
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I dont think it will be because of the shooting, per say. That will be the catalyst for changing some of the narratives around him. His campaign will milk it for everything, especially in making the point that despite all the talk of the Republicans and Project 2025 being radical, it is in fact the left, who will shoot their political opponents, that are the radical and dangerous ones.

Let's see what the talk is like during the RNC.
 
Not a very good pick imo, Ohio is solid red anyway, don't know who he appeals to.

Then again, prob doesn't matter, as Biden has a very low chance of winning anyway.
 
gaffs said:
This shows how confident the campaign is.

So confident they don't need Berghams money, Rubio's latino voters, Scott's black voters or to appease women by picking one.

They went double MAGA.
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Or Youngkin, who would have made Virginia a likely flip, and game over.
 
Does he really bring anything new to the table like Pence did in 2016?

Maybe it's more a matter of succession than electoral politics. Isn't his pretty much appointing him second in command of the MAGA world?
 
America will vote-in Trump then complain when there is a federal abortion ban. Every 4 years it amazes me that 60-70 million of them vote Republican. A lot of them very 'educated' too.
 
Raoul said:
CNN reporting that Doug Burgum has been told he's not the VP pick.

Looks like its down to JD Vance or Little Marco Rubio.
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Looks like markets were pricing JD Vance this morning, and now it's official. There was no reason to pick Rubio strategically, Florida is in the bag.
 
Suedesi said:
Looks like markets were pricing JD Vance this morning, and now it's official. There was no reason to pick Rubio strategically, Florida is in the bag.
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So is Ohio. The only reason Vance got it is because he and Don Jr. are pals, and the latter appealed to Trump to select him. Of course, it was made easier by the fact that Rubio had previously damaged himself against Trump in 2016.
 
Not accretive in any way, the venn diagram of Trump and Vance supporters is a circle.

If the Dems muster up a decent candidate this would be such an easy election to win. It boggles the mind what they're doing.
 
jd vance is an actual extremely online groyper. he does nothing for trump electorally, but will be loyal to the cause.
 
Raoul said:
So is Ohio. The only reason Vance got it is because he and Don Jr. are pals, and the latter appealed to Trump to select him. Of course, it was made easier by the fact that Rubio had previously damaged himself against Trump in 2016.
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I heard Don Jr. is a fan, and so is Peter Thiel and some rich SV donors. I also doubted Trump would pick a Cuban American as his running mate.
 
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