It’s very unclear at this point what a 2028 election even looks like. I can’t imagine these batshit republicans backing a batshit Trump with the batshit Supreme Court at their beck and call are going to leave it as a fair game.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) get the depressing job of reviewing United's 3-0 loss at Old Trafford to Liverpool. They discuss what went wrong, Casemiro's day to forget, and the pressure now on Erik Ten Hag. They also take some time to give McTominay a proper farewell, and give their overall thoughts on the Summer Transfer Window.
I'm fairly certain I explained in the post. These people would have loved to have seen AOC hung up on a spike on Jan 6.
You just need to take a quick glance at the guys Twitter account to see what sort of person he was. @Corey_Comper
May he rest in peace, of course.
They're probably going to have Biden up for another race in 2028 at this rate.
Yeah but why is that an issue for AOC denouncing political violence. It seems irrelevant to me.
I doubt she's any desire to lower her own standards to match those who would do her harm.
Add another couple of points for the fact that Trump cheated death.
The election is over folks.
had a look at the 538 avg. there's a gap that starts opening up just before the debate, and expands after:
the point for me isn't that others necessarily would do better, but that i don't see how biden claws this back. he's not getting younger in october.
Bidens age was always a big issue. He had a low bar to clear at the debate. He was not able to finish a sentence so proved all of the right wing media's accusations of him.
Those who may have been on the fence, saw a weak old man. In America, it feels like weakness is the worst traint - worse than dishonesty or criminality. That debate is etched into peoples minds.
Biden has made it a referendum on him and his age, which is a losing position.
And now with Trump surviving an assassination attempt, he can play the sympathy card, take the moral high ground and make it look like it is the left that incites violence. It will be a very hard line for the media to walk now because Trump will milk every last drop and the media will find it hard to push back without inadvertently putting the message across that "he had it coming".
I don't think another Democrat will even want to step up against a man who cheated death.
Kamala would still sort of have to step up if Biden stepped down, for whatever that's worth (not a lot, electorally speaking).
I would have more sympathy for AOC if she was genuinely a hippy let’s all just get along type. But she is just about smart enough to know what’s good for her career. There haven’t been many photo shoots at immigration detention centres under Biden. And tbh the same goes for Bernie.
But just about smart enough leads to as @Iker Quesadillas says hilarious strategy. Pretty much in their own words progressive politicians support a president funding a genocide and hope the incoming fascist dictator a healthy recovery. Political projects can only go so far if the people involved don’t understand the words they are using. Tbh I think clinging onto the Biden administration will the end of any progressive politics in the Democratic Party.
It will be JD Vance.
Rubio may bring him some of the latino vote, but i think MAGA are so confident at this point, they will give Trump who he wants, rather than someone who helps him attract more of a certain demographic.
I said it on the assassination thread, but it is worth repeating i think....
The Trump assassination attempt is just perfect timing. Any pressure on Biden to step down will now cool, giving him enough time to limp towards the Dem convention.
Perfect timing for Biden as the talks moves away from him and perfect for Trump as it keeps Biden in the race.
The Trump assassination attempt is just perfect timing. Any pressure on Biden to step down will now cool, giving him enough time to limp towards the Dem convention.
Perfect timing for Biden as the talks moves away from him and perfect for Trump as it keeps Biden in the race.
Biden didn't want to get out anyway and the calls to have him do so have basically vanished overnight.
This is NYT/Siena, July 9-12
e - i agree the calls have vanished, i'm just saying they shouldn't have. as far as i know, pelosi is the last person still trying to change it.
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Pennsylvania would be yuge for Trump, no?
Biden needs Michigan-Wisconsin-Penn to win. No other path (He is behind by more in Arizona and Georgia).
Of those three, Penn is the toughest.
Absolutely. From the perspective of the narrow but existing chance of Biden being convinced to step-down, the timing of the assassination attempt was terrible.
The Harris numbers are bogus given that she's not in the race. If she was, you would probably need to factor in a 5-10% drop once Trump and his flock start chipping away at her.
A bit arbitrary, mate.
Not so much when you consider she has been given a free ride as a benefit of not being in the race. Therefore, you would have to factor in all the negative press she will get by way of Trump's attacks, especially now that MAGA are emboldened by Trump escaping assassination and getting off from his legal case. This is why I don't believe her numbers, and for that matter numbers for others not currently in the race.
5-10% is a lot.
So do you think the end-result of the election is pretty settled, or do you think Biden still has a chance?
5-10% can't happen in a country with such deep partisan polarisation (starting after 2016). especially with a figure who is already nationally known and has been attacked quite a bit.
most people have settled in one camp or the other. it's a few % of persuading the dumbest people alive (swing voters) and a few % of turning out your base.
The winning coalition: divorced men + married women.
There's been a clear trend since at least January, if not earlier. Trump is winning while senate Dems are winning too. The obvious weakness has always been Biden. @Raoul was saying it's too early, the polls should change, but this was super consistent more than 6 months ago too.
At the end of the day we will find out what the American people are made of. Mostly Maga crazies or rational people that don't want a fkn lunatic for
President. If they vote Trump after all he's done the country is lost anyway.
President. If they vote Trump after all he's done the country is lost anyway.
Yes, because of the assassination attempt. It has taken any air out of Biden being replaced. Certainly in the media and probably around congress now that Biden has to be seen to be dealing with the fallout.
I guess all Democrats are now resigned to the loss. Biden will bring down both houses too.
What sucks is, there could be 3 million more people voting for Biden than Trump (like happened with Hillary and Trump) but because of our screwed up/rigged process, Trump could still win.
What more proof is needed that Biden needs to be replaced? The fact that people may split ticket like this in insane.
I can see old school Republicans (Romney types) splitting ticket to vote for their Rep Senator but not Trump, but didnt think it would be the other way round when you have Trump as your alt option.
Them the rules.
Harris wouldn't change this either. The Dems are in a Biden or bust situation now, especially given that nothing has changed since the 17 or so days since the debate last month. We are a month off from the Dem convention and it doesn't look like anyone other than Biden will be the nominee.
That is BS man. You negate the fact that she has also not spent $200mil on ads, like Biden has so far. She will get a boost on those numbers.
MAGA and the right wing eco-system haven't damaged Biden all that much. It has all been self inflicted.
Harris is by far from a perfect candidate, but she doesn't have all the issues Biden does.
She is not 81
She can finish a sentence
Her son isn't a felon and ex junkie
She is not as tied to supporting Israel, as much as Biden is now.
She is not a member of the "Biden crime family" as Fox News have been telling their viewers for years.
She is an ex-prosecutor than can "prosecute" the case against Trump and actually tell people the dangers of Project 2025.
Trump does not want to face her.
Though post Saturday, we are now in a very different space where i feel all the Trump baggage will be forgotten about by swing voters and they will vote for him because they sympathize with him for being shot at and may be angry at "the left" for being the one who took said shot.
This is irrelevant since there's no time for ads to redefine her in a positive way with early voting starting in just over two months.
MAGA have been attacking Biden since day one and have even resorted to prosecuting his son. That has an effect on sufficient fence sitting independents to in conjunction with economic conditions, bring his numbers down. And they have come down.
See her campaign performance during the 2020 primaries to get a sense of her viability. She's a fabrication of a drug deal between Biden and Clyburn, not a legitimate candidate who should be seriously viewed as POTUS material.[/QUOTE]
I think momentum was building. We know Jeffries went to see Biden friday and relayed the concerns from congress. He also didn't publicly back Biden.
I think the Trump assassination attempt has completely stopped that momentum.
If it is Biden or Bust, its Bust. He has no chance. You cant go into an election against Trump with a candidate who over half of Democrats think should step down.
Given that he's gotten better turnout than anyone in history, I'd say even in his older state, he has a better chance than any other Dem, given the short timeline between now and late September.
He's still got a clear path - as long as he can win PA, WI, and MI imo. We don't know how Trump's situation is going to shake out in the coming weeks/months either, so the Dems would be insane to give up now.
CNN reporting that Doug Burgum has been told he's not the VP pick.
Looks like its down to JD Vance or Little Marco Rubio.
Looks like its down to JD Vance or Little Marco Rubio.