2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

MarylandMUFan said:
I wish people would stop posting crap polling data (which is almost all polling data).
The one above was done through robocalls and to only 797 people across all the states. It's pointless:

" The poll was conducted between Thursday, May 30 to Friday, May 31, among a sample of 797 adults, 18 years or older, living in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The survey was conducted IVR and an online panel to complete the survey.... Since the poll was partially completed online, a margin of error cannot be assigned to the poll "
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Sorry, i thought it was in each state, not across 3, so yeah, essentially worthless then.

For what it is worth, poll from Michigan(mitchell research) came out that was basically a tie, not the greatest sample size, but at least it was about 700 only from Michigan.

We will have to wait and see in the couple of weeks ahead, but i guess my point was that the bump for Biden seems to be very minor.
 
Morty_ said:
First battleground polls are out, since the conviction.

https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/june24battlegroundstspoll

All in all, it doesn't seem to have moved the needle much, neck and neck in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

As of now, only a minor polling error decides who wins the electoral college.
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Yeah I mentioned earlier how I feel this conviction will have done little to sway the polls one way or the other, and I still stand by that. If anything it'll further galvanise his base, who will buy into the nonsense that its a political stitch up, and some of the more wacky independents/Libertarians will also buy into the conspiracy nonsense and also sway in his direction.

Biden needs to worry about losing his own base instead of relying on convictions.
 
4bars said:
To be honest I expected that. At this point. Everybody knows who trump is and what a piece of shit is. All MAGA's might publicaly deny any wrong doing of anything that trump did. But they know that he abuses his power with woman from the start (grab them by the pussy), they know that he is corrupt and he abuses power. But what he says, advances their causes, racism, abortion, america first at all cost, etc... So is a piece of shit but their piece of shit. Being a convicted felon is something that they don't care because they know perfectly fine that he broke the law many times, they just caught him and besides, they believe that Biden and many other politicians break the law also (and they are 100% right) so they even reinforce them to believe is political prosecution (is not, Trump is in another level). This could turn off some independents in 2016, maybe 2020? But after 1 Trump term and January 6, there was no independent left that would jump Trump's boat. He basically has no independent left to lose. Is up to Biden to recover some of the independents that he also lost with his presidency. Economy improvement not felt by the average Joe after the inflation, His old man gaffes image and Israel conflict, but we all know that the later has 0 impact in the US elections, right?
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Reason this is close is precisely this, Trump is unpopular as shit, but Biden has lost a lot of support.

If Biden eek out a 270 electoral college victory, does he really deserve to take a victory lap? He should have resigned, and left it up to somebody else.
 
Morty_ said:
Reason this is close is precisely this, Trump is unpopular as shit, but Biden has lost a lot of support.

If Biden eek out a 270 electoral college victory, does he really deserve to take a victory lap? He should have resigned, and left it up to somebody else.
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If he has unified government, why not? He will have a mandate then.
 
Morty_ said:
Reason this is close is precisely this, Trump is unpopular as shit, but Biden has lost a lot of support.

If Biden eek out a 270 electoral college victory, does he really deserve to take a victory lap? He should have resigned, and left it up to somebody else.
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Exactly. Is a battle of the bigger base. Independents will sit that out if nothing happen the last 2-3 weeks.

And yes, I had been saying the same. Biden had to pass the torch. Would be remembered for a president that beat Trump, did a great job with the inflation and job numbers...and the tiny tiny dot of being a fecking genocide POTUS
 
calodo2003 said:
Can't tell if this is satire or nah...

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totally agree with him. i’ve said the same thing about our teacher shortage over here. you open up teaching to paedos and then you don’t have to worry about teachers striking for improved wages or offering golden handshakes and bursaries to train.
 
calodo2003 said:
If he has unified government, why not? He will have a mandate then.
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I prefer to not get into the whole split-ticket arguments again, but i don't find it particulary likely they hold on to the senate, if Biden only scrapes by himself.

Though, Trump robbing the RNC for legal funds certainly helps the democrats.
 
Morty_ said:
Sorry, i thought it was in each state, not across 3, so yeah, essentially worthless then.

For what it is worth, poll from Michigan(mitchell research) came out that was basically a tie, not the greatest sample size, but at least it was about 700 only from Michigan.

We will have to wait and see in the couple of weeks ahead, but i guess my point was that the bump for Biden seems to be very minor.
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Not picking on you specifically. Really, unless it's a Gallup poll or some big national company not tied to any party, the poll is usually pointless. We saw that going into the last several elections and the media eat them up since it's content for them (regardless of if it's accurate or not).
 
calodo2003 said:
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I feel like I lost an IQ point reading that rubbish. He can believe that Trump got almost 400k more votes than Obama but can't believe Biden got 180k more votes than Obama?

Really does go back to Lakoff's research that when facts contradict someones preconceived views they just ignore the facts not change their view.
 
VorZakone said:
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What can possibly go wrong when SNL so often is the definition of cringe in recent years.

On another note: Trump saying things that business owners and workers alike will like, like getting rid of tax on tips shows me the campaign is desperate to promise just about anything to get votes. And its pretty crafty too. Dems should pay attention.
 
syrian_scholes said:
I'd seriously consider giving him my vote.
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Third parties were serious, they would go for State and local races instead, and try to build up from there.

Feels like publicity stunts running for president as third party/independent, no chance of accomplishing anything meaningful.
 
Morty_ said:
Third parties were serious, they would go for State and local races instead, and try to build up from there.

Feels like publicity stunts running for president as third party/independent, no chance of accomplishing anything meaningful.
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It's not because he is a serious contender, it's just because I don't want to vote for Biden and I'm definitely not voting Trump.
 
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...that last sentence :lol:
 
Eyepopper said:
:o

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Nothing new really. He's 81 years old and used to struggle with a speech impediment even when was younger.

The strangest thing about that clip is his face in the first bit. Has he had work done, or are we just not used to seeing him smile like that?
 
Mike Smalling said:
Nothing new really. He's 81 years old and used to struggle with a speech impediment even when was younger.

The strangest thing about that clip is his face in the first bit. Has he had work done, or are we just not used to seeing him smile like that?
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He still does, he has a stutter that he mostly is able to overcome but nort always
 
Reminds me of McConnell recently and look how quick they carted him off the times he did it. Seems like they haven't really gotten him out in public much since. I guess Trump being a bumbling moron since the beginning has an advantage.
 
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Because Raoul and Wibble closed the thread specifically for discussions in AIPAC etc.
 
nimic said:
A truly unhinged thing for a polling company to tweet. The US is fecked.
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back in 2012 they had a noticeable gop bias but not that far from other polls, they said romney +1.
right now they also have trump +6 and +8 nationally in half their "polls".
 
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