I think trump and many of his supporters would be very happy without that one
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
I think trump and many of his supporters would be very happy without that one
Does anyone really consider them a polling company? They are essentially a GOP propaganda tool.
Absolutely crazy. The morons will, naturally, lap it up though.
Which is exactly why it was posted
I am not sure how some are expecting this election to be a close one.
From what I'm seeing, Trump is comfortably ahead in:
- Wisconsin
- Arizona
- Nevada
- Georgia
I just do not see how Biden can win any of these 4 states.
Even in Pennsylvania, I did not see a single Biden Flag while there were many Trump flags.
And I'm talking about the affluent suburbs surrounding Pittsburgh which are supposedly Democrat strongholds.
It looks bleak.
From what I'm seeing, Trump is comfortably ahead in:
- Wisconsin
- Arizona
- Nevada
- Georgia
I just do not see how Biden can win any of these 4 states.
Even in Pennsylvania, I did not see a single Biden Flag while there were many Trump flags.
And I'm talking about the affluent suburbs surrounding Pittsburgh which are supposedly Democrat strongholds.
It looks bleak.
You’re assessing the likely outcome of the presidential election based on how many flags you’ve seen?
I'm in Missouri and I haven't seen any flags in my area, Trump or Biden, so I guess no one's winning here!
I sincerely wish you folks are right. It's my gut telling me otherwise and it honestly makes me feel disgusted that this baboon might be coming back to the White House.
Maybe I am just too much of a pessimist but I hope you all are right.
Maybe I am just too much of a pessimist but I hope you all are right.
Trump may very well win, but your "gut" and the amount of flags displayed in swing states probably aren't the best metrics to go by. Three of the most recent polls in Wisconsin have Biden up. PA is also split in recent polls where Trump is up in 3 polls, Biden in 2. There will be more movement in the polls after the debates as well.
This is where I expect the most damage to be inflicted. Biden has been handled as if he were in late stage dementia. He gave a few speeches which I have watched at length in controlled (favorable) environments. Trump, meanwhile, is still doing the hours long rally thing. I've watched a few of those as well: enough to know that the comedic clips do not represent the man's capacity to debate. It's a matter of age and I think Biden has not aged as well as Trump. This I suspect will be evident in the debates and will confirm boosts for Trump after those debates. I see a Trump win tbh.
Biden definitely hasn't aged well, but he tends to consistently outperform expectations in places like the State of the Union address as recently as a few months ago. He's also done very well in all his debates and is likely to do well this time as well given that he's debating someone who can look comparably unhinged. Ultimately, the Dems are going to have to go big on the economy and abortion and figure out how to mitigate Republican attacks on the border and the continued effects of inflation.
Up in the air. The polling is not favourable to Biden. He's narrowly behind nationally and behind in some swing states in a relatively "big" way (to be tracking Trump across a series of states being the relative size of the problem, as these are the states which carried him to president four years ago). And, while I don't know about opinion here, for the last ten years or so I've noticed that polls tend to get the "right" wrong by about 2-3% (underplayed).
The hits you'd expect Trump to take have happened. Nothing has really changed and how else can he be hit? Biden, meanwhile, has been held in cotton wool and awaits many a hit to come. I saw his speech at a union gathering. It was decent but the age is clearly showing. Trump has always been demented. Makes it less easy to spot decline. Just Trump being Trump.
Biden is down relatively big in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, according to the polls, not so much in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which he is down by like a point in each on the average(used be down by 3 like a month or so ago), Biden has some leeway on 2020, he can get by(barely) without the former three, as long as he wins the latter group of states.
Is it great news for Biden? No, but there is a likely path, though it is very narrow, as for whom the polls favor, since dobbs, the democrats overperforms polls most of the time now, so its actually the opposite way now, republicans are underperforming.
The problem is that he's down in all of those states. Big(ish) margins in the first three and then a point or fractions of a point in the other three. But he is not leading a single one.
If following the same pattern as the last couple of months, he will take the lead in Wisconsin and Michigan pretty soon, and anyway, 0,5-1 point behind really is next to nothing, and if polls underestimate dems there like in 2022, Biden takes all 3 states.
Keep in mind, its not just the polls, but the way these states have shifted since 2016, in recent elections, they all reliable voted for democrats, are they going to switch back now? Possible, but i do find it unlikely.
Isn't polling showing that people are willing to vote for Democrats in general, but less so for Joe Biden?
It's a moot point until more reliable polling comes along: post-debate, closer to the actual election. I would say Trump wins the election going by my feel for US politics which has rarely been wrong (not that I'm any kind of guru). Clinton landslide in 2016 is the only time I really remember my expectation being well away from the reality.
Yes.
There is a narrow gap for the House (Dems + 0.4 vs Biden -0.9).
There is a bigger gap when looking at Senate candidates from the swing states (Ohio, Michigan, Arizona)
Well, i'll say i have pretty good track record too, except for 2016, heh.
Our guesses matters as much as the next, mine is Biden wins 270 through the rust-belt, what makes sense in my head right now.
Fair points.
That's gonna go down well with Miller drinkers!
I just don't understand how people listen to Trump in any capacity and claim he makes any sense? Biden is called a doddering old fool and dementia blah blah. Trump literally has rambling incoherent speeches where he tosses out vagueries and red meat. He plays the victim talks about his personal persecutions. He lies over and over. He has 0 concept of any policy to talk to his audience about. Except revenge and "America great again" which has always been vague its just marketable.
He seems to get a pass for being incoherent and making no sense. If Biden says something about a policy I can at least believe he generally knows what that policy is.
Even in debates. We know exactly what trump will do. He has no policy initiatives. Revenge and personal persecution. Will likely bring up criminal son Hunter in order to deflect his own convictions and indictments. Vague 'you too are being investigated' and should be in jail. Courtesy of the GOP still "investigating" despite no evidence.
The bar is so low for trump it is ridiculous that he keeps getting a pass. All his interviews, every speech you can find rambling nonsense and lies. NO specifics, he wont admit to any facts when presented with them. But he continually gets a pass. And Biden is going to be hit with oh he's old. Oh he paused for 3 secs.
Biden needs to call Trump a convict at an opportune moment in the debates, and just watch him go wild.
It might change a few voters, who haven't seen Trump in years and somehow forgot how bizarre he is, i don't know, feels like i'm reaching here.
It might change a few voters, who haven't seen Trump in years and somehow forgot how bizarre he is, i don't know, feels like i'm reaching here.
Getting a pass in what sense? He is very unpopular. Most people think he is too old to be president. He usually polls as the loser in every debate.
In regards to Biden even possibly losing a debate because of a gaffe, or some old man issue. I mean I don't see how Trump could win a debate. He never ever makes any sense. And is a serial liar. All he talks about is himself and what a victim he is. It isn't even a contest. That is what I mean when I say the bar is so low. And that particular comment I was quoting said specifically " It's a matter of age and I think Biden has not aged as well as Trump. This I suspect will be evident in the debates and will confirm boosts for Trump after those debates.
I mean If Biden did something stupid and promised or offered something that clearly was against his base. LIke 'yeah I am banning abortions!' It would just have to be so massive a mistake to get to a point where anyone not MAGA could say trump wins a debate.
I agree with you that Trump is not going to win the debates.
Define win. In a normal political sense, would be no question. But in this new era that started in 2016, debates don't matter anymore. Because if Biden and Trump debates, people that votes for Trump don't care about policies or at least not the intricate part of it. Throw they want to "abort" newborns, build a wall and more stupid things and his voters will lap it up (As Jim Jeffries: " he is a straight talkah) and consider Trump the winner, Fox and newsmax will consider him a winner. And Biden voters will consider Biden a winner
Right now there is little that can move the needle. I am sure that 99% of voters knows who they will vote for. The fight is not to convince anyone but to make possible votes so disgusted with their candidate of choice that they will not vote at all. Is a vote suppression war. Independents will mostly sit that up and if Biden can't make people rally behind him the last 2-3 weeks with the Trump fear, I think will be a very low participation election
Right now there is little that can move the needle. I am sure that 99% of voters knows who they will vote for. The fight is not to convince anyone but to make possible votes so disgusted with their candidate of choice that they will not vote at all. Is a vote suppression war. Independents will mostly sit that up and if Biden can't make people rally behind him the last 2-3 weeks with the Trump fear, I think will be a very low participation election
biden can win the debate by not fainting, not looking for a chair, and by saying the name of the city once.
biden can win the debate by not fainting, not looking for a chair, and by saying the name of the city once.
Those are the expectations for the next POTUS. great
Curious, how Biden can be behind in the national vote, but about dead even in Wisconsin and Michigan at the same time.
Can a low turnout election benefit, or at least not be much of a detriment to democrats, despite all trends pointing to the opposite?
hasn't it been true since 2020? all the special elections with turnout in the 20s have double digit dem shifts.
which would reflect the new democrat voter - richer, more educated, more white = more likely to vote.
Well, midterms and obv special elections are lower turnout than presidential elections.
I mean, i guess it is possible that dems keep bleeding in high-population states like New York, Florida and California, while remaining strong in the rust-belt like in the 2022 midterms.
Because the polls are still off because many people (primarily independents) are too busy with life to have given the election much thought.
"the rubes will vote for me so i can slash your taxes."
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/g...plan-to-cut-taxes-on-tips-is-exciting-voters/
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/g...plan-to-cut-taxes-on-tips-is-exciting-voters/
biden can win the debate by not fainting, not looking for a chair, and by saying the name of the city once.
I think we need a drinking game for the debate.