2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Raoul said:
Yeah there could be a bit of that as well. Ultimately, non MAGA Republicans would become political refugees if the entire Republican party were to go down in flames if Trump goes down. The only ones that may be happy about that would be the likes of Liz Cheney, Romney and a few other stragglers.
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Well, you do already have that centre-right party that ultimately decided not to run because they couldn't agree on a presidential candidate, right? There were some pretty high-profile people in there. When the Republican party starts infighting once Trump's gone, that other party might be able to take up more space, and actually become viable.

Wishful thinking maybe, but I think currently more likely than the Republican party crossing the border back into sanity after Trump's departure.
 
africanspur said:
Why are we pretending like it was so obvious Trump would be able to garner this kind of insane support, as if we weren't all laughing at him even putting himself forward as a GOP contender in 2016 and weren't all then pronouncing him a finished force in 2020?
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We are not, it's an afterthought... when the genie is out of the bottle. Similar in many ways to what happened with Brexit in the UK, nobody saw it coming, because nobody was paying attention. People whose lives were going reasonably well, didn't understand that for millions of others, hope and aspiration were virtually gone.

Even Trump couldn't believe what was happening and at times it's possible even he thought he would wake up one day and it would all be a dream. The problems in the US were much more diverse, but in the US the Make America Great Again slogans and the Let's take back Control (of our Sovereignty) in the UK, presented for many people a glib/simple answer to their basic problems, and these answers made even more attractive by the oratory of Trump and Farage.

As in any war (and that is what it has become) the first casualty is the Truth.
 
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Cal? said:
As expected, MagaTs, Trumpites, or whatever you want to call them makes up 43-44% of the US
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Definitely not. More like 15-20%. Just looking at the 2020 election only 66.6% voted in general and Trump got 46.8%, so that's about 31% of the population voting for him. And the MAGA cult only makes up a subset of that. They are just very visible.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Definitely not. More like 15-20%. Just looking at the 2020 election only 66.6% voted in general and Trump got 46.8%, so that's about 31% of the population voting for him. And the MAGA **** only makes up a subset of that. They are just very visible.
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He's getting 43-44% from the fact that 43% thought it was the wrong verdict and 44% thought the trial was unfair.
 
nimic said:
He's getting 43-44% from the fact that 43% thought it was the wrong verdict and 44% thought the trial was unfair.
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Yeah, I get that. That doesn't make 43-44% of population MAGA. At least not in the way I look at that group of voters.
 
Cal? said:
As expected, MagaTs, Trumpites, or whatever you want to call them makes up 43-44% of the US
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Not even close. Its probably in the 20s. The entire Republican base itself is only about 32% of the voting population, and there are a fair number of evangelicals and traditional Rs within that number, which would leave the MAGA base probably somewhere closer to 22-25%. Other Republicans simply vote for Trump because he's the only option compared to the Dem candidate.
 
nimic said:
Is there any moral difference between them and actual MAGA, then? If all it takes for them to vote for someone like Trump is "well I have to vote Republican".
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Some people will never vote ever for the other party no matter who the candidate is, no different to a lot of other countries in fact, in the UK there are folks who will never, ever vote for a Tory no matter how bad the Labour candidate is, and vice versa
 
nimic said:
Is there any moral difference between them and actual MAGA, then? If all it takes for them to vote for someone like Trump is "well I have to vote Republican".
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That's no different than most Dems. The difference between MAGA and other Rs is they don't blindly follow and believe everything Trump says and does, and occasionally even don't vote for him. The likes of Paul Ryan, Mike Pence and Liz Cheney have said they won't vote Trump and will probably write in someone else. Geoff Duncan, the former Lt Governor of GA, is a conservative who says he will actually vote for Biden, as will former GOP Congressman Adam Kinzinger. These are all famous people previously associated with the Republican base, but not MAGA.
 
Raoul said:
That's no different than most Dems. The difference between MAGA and other Rs is they don't blindly follow and believe everything Trump says and does, and occasionally even don't vote for him. The likes of Paul Ryan, Mike Pence and Liz Cheney have said they won't vote Trump and will probably write in someone else. Geoff Duncan, the former Lt Governor of GA, is a conservative who says he will actually vote for Biden, as will former GOP Congressman Adam Kinzinger. These are all famous people previously associated with the Republican base, but not MAGA.
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Sure, but your examples are all people who won't vote Trump. Those people have some principles at least, and aren't the ones I'm talking about.
 
nimic said:
Sure, but your examples are all people who won't vote Trump. Those people have some principles at least, and aren't the ones I'm talking about.
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Right, but my point is they're all part of the Republican base, which to answer Cal's previous post, is bigger than MAGA. The people who are nailed on to vote for Trump are probably in the high 20s. The other independents who lean R are completely in play for Biden to go after. This is why many of the polls we're seeing so far are likely to change over time, especially after the debates.
 
nimic said:
Maybe not MAGA voters, but it's a worrying number nonetheless.
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Agree. I'd say it points to a bad media diet, general polarization and lack of critical thinking, rather than direct affiliation with MAGA. I'd say many of these 43% percent don't wear a red cap or attend Trump's rallies though.
 
IMO if you're an independent who will vote for a crypto Fascist like Trump, you're not really an independent. We can talk about terminology all we want, but clearly politics isn't the same as it was in 96 or 04 or even 12 (though it was coming at that point).
 
nimic said:
IMO if you're an independent who will vote for a crypto Fascist like Trump, you're not really an independent. We can talk about terminology all we want, but clearly politics isn't the same as it was in 96 or 04 or even 12 (though it was coming at that point).
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Trump is polling far better among blacks and hispanics this cycle than last. This suggests that economics plays a very big role since many considering Trump seem to think voting for him again will take the country back to pre-pandemic costs of living/food/gas prices. That of course won't happen and Trump is more likely to break the economy than help lower costs.
 
Mike Smalling said:
It says everything about the theater of Washington that Marco Rubio is being considered. Someone that Trump has mocked ruthlessly, and who in turn implied that Trump has a small dick.
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Knowing Trump and his insecurity about loyalty and being the only one in the limelight, you’d think he’d go for Burgum, who is increasingly looking like Pence 2.0
 
maniak said:
How would you define a maga voter?
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It's not straight forward, but someone that is "ride or die" for Trump, thinks he is basically flawless, attends his rallies, wears his merchandise, etc. They are likely to also gravitate towards conspiracy theory and bigotry.
 
Mike Smalling said:
It's not straight forward, but someone that is "ride or die" for Trump, thinks he is basically flawless, attends his rallies, wears his merchandise, etc. They are likely to also gravitate towards conspiracy theory and bigotry.
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They're basically the people that wear the red hats, go to Trump's rallies, believe his narrative that he is being persecuted, as well as anything else he says.
 
Mike Smalling said:
It's not straight forward, but someone that is "ride or die" for Trump, thinks he is basically flawless, attends his rallies, wears his merchandise, etc. They are likely to also gravitate towards conspiracy theory and bigotry.
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What would you call someone who believes all those things and votes accordingly, but doesn't wear the red hat or attend rallies?
 
maniak said:
What would you call someone who believes all those things and votes accordingly, but doesn't wear the red hat or attend rallies?
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I'd call them really dumb.

I don't know - there is no set check-list, where you have to score a certain number of points before you are "MAGA" by definition. I'd say if you are a) Blindly devoted to Trump, and b) Constantly showing that devotion with what you wear, the rallies you attend, or maybe what you post on social media, then you are "MAGA" in my book. But that's just my definition, and others may define it differently. I don't think it's too far off though.

The original point was that 44% of the population clearly does not correspond to this definition, if for no other reason than only around 30% of the eligible voters bothered to show up for him on election day. And many of these voters have different motivations than basically thinking Trump is a god.
 
I wish people would stop posting crap polling data (which is almost all polling data).
The one above was done through robocalls and to only 797 people across all the states. It's pointless:

" The poll was conducted between Thursday, May 30 to Friday, May 31, among a sample of 797 adults, 18 years or older, living in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The survey was conducted IVR and an online panel to complete the survey.... Since the poll was partially completed online, a margin of error cannot be assigned to the poll "
 
Morty_ said:
First battleground polls are out, since the conviction.

https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/june24battlegroundstspoll

All in all, it doesn't seem to have moved the needle much, neck and neck in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

As of now, only a minor polling error decides who wins the electoral college.
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To be honest I expected that. At this point. Everybody knows who trump is and what a piece of shit is. All MAGA's might publicaly deny any wrong doing of anything that trump did. But they know that he abuses his power with woman from the start (grab them by the pussy), they know that he is corrupt and he abuses power. But what he says, advances their causes, racism, abortion, america first at all cost, etc... So is a piece of shit but their piece of shit. Being a convicted felon is something that they don't care because they know perfectly fine that he broke the law many times, they just caught him and besides, they believe that Biden and many other politicians break the law also (and they are 100% right) so they even reinforce them to believe is political prosecution (is not, Trump is in another level). This could turn off some independents in 2016, maybe 2020? But after 1 Trump term and January 6, there was no independent left that would jump Trump's boat. He basically has no independent left to lose. Is up to Biden to recover some of the independents that he also lost with his presidency. Economy improvement not felt by the average Joe after the inflation, His old man gaffes image and Israel conflict, but we all know that the later has 0 impact in the US elections, right?
 
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