2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
That just reinforces that there's no one to replace Trump. He's an avatar for the right attempting to hold on to a generation that is increasingly in the past. Once he's gone, there are no replacements and the R party will have to either reform or else be marginalized into irrelevance.
This press conference is something else. it’s basically a Presidential rally.
Yeah. Anyone from their dynasty. or his girlfriend/daugther. US will have finally a monarchy
Well the Kennedy's have been trying it for 60 years
true. From bootleggers to almost kings to have their brain half eaten. Not bad
Maybe this is the moment when Biden starts to gain momentum?
https://x.com/STForeignDesk/status/1796638921625112852
Now, if it said 1/10 wouldn't vote for him, thats something, but "less likely", what does that actually mean?
Just sounds like a few of them are too embarassed to say they will vote for him, but will likely do so anyway.
Among independents, it did say it made 25% of them less likely to vote for him, but also that 18% made it more likely to vote for him, more significant than among republicans, i'd say.
Now, if it said 1/10 wouldn't vote for him, thats something, but "less likely", what does that actually mean?
Just sounds like a few of them are too embarassed to say they will vote for him, but will likely do so anyway.
Among independents, it did say it made 25% of them less likely to vote for him, but also that 18% made it more likely to vote for him, more significant than among republicans, i'd say.
or not. But, if not now, then when?
Someone found guilty in 34 felony counts makes them more likely to vote for him?! This means that they’re not truly independents, or that they were going to vote for him anyway.
Had the verdict been not guilty, they would’ve said “see, it was all a sham… we’re going to vote for him”.
Imagine USA having a convicted felon as president. Feck me!
I'm not buying the narrative that those who swing Trump will be less inclined to vote for him if convicted. I suspect it'll have the opposite effect and many will buy into this being a political witchhunt which will only galvanise his rabid base. Assuming he avoids jail time (which I'd bank as being a given), I'd still bet on him winning in November.
If they replace trump with one of his equally demented but bagageless children they stomp this election
Not a chance. Don Jr. is a coked out failson who has the charisma on par with that crazy dude at the bar who screams at the napkin dispenser, Eric somehow has even less charisma and at this point should probably be referred to as "Laura's husband", Ivanka might be the only one smart enough to realize that doing so should be labeled "there be prison", Baron is not his actual son, and I forgot Tiffany existed 4 times while writing this.
Nah. If Trump isn't on the ballot for whatever reason, MAGA as a concept is crippled. The idiot brood will only exacerbate that.
His children won't attract the MAGA-people, they are all about the Donald, and nobody else.
They don't have his bizarre personality that they love either, they are just much more plain and boring.
They don't have his bizarre personality that they love either, they are just much more plain and boring.
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To you and me maybe. I just think back to the guy Jordan klepper interviewed that had the trump dynasty shirt. You’re expecting normalcy when clearly trump has proven it’s something else that makes his followers tick - he says jump they’ll say how high
Where do the maga people go after Trump? I can’t see them wanting to go back to regular politicians, but at the same time it’s hard to see any of the existing politicians being able to emulate trump perfectly to scoop up his voters
Gaetz ? He seems slimeboy enough that seemingly gets away with alot
We could see the right cleave into two factions.
Yeah there’s no way Uday and Qusay are replacing Trump.
The GOP would be slaughtered. His offspring have the charisma of rotted cabbage. They couldn't galvanize enough to get within earshot of the EC let alone the GE vote.
Zero charisma as well. Gaetz would suffer much like DeSantis on the national level. Most MAGAts and fake MAGAt politicians lack the whole package of Trumpelstiltskin. Ted Cruz tried and failed miserably, so have many others.
No chance.
The MAGA base likes liars, criminals, rich, childlish candidates and those who like to abuse women and tear down everything. Gaetz fits that description.
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Never ceases to amaze me how many women are maga. It’s nuts to me. What is it that makes them love a liar, serial cheater, convicted sex abuser and now a convicted felon?
Because they view it through identity over all else. Trump is also doing much better among blacks and hispanics this cycle, which is part of the reason Biden has been lagging in the polls.
Don't forget self-congratulated destroyer of Roe.
Why are we pretending like it was so obvious Trump would be able to garner this kind of insane support, as if we weren't all laughing at him even putting himself forward as a GOP contender in 2016 and weren't all then pronouncing him a finished force in 2020?
God knows what monster is coming next but it seems to me to be incredibly optimistic to think when Trump is done, the movement is finished. The whole party has been yanked far to the right. I seem to remember a time period when Haley for instance was a tea party favourites no? Now she's seen as a 'moderate' Repub. Because 'moderate' now just means accepting the basic tenant of democracy and handover of power.
God knows what monster is coming next but it seems to me to be incredibly optimistic to think when Trump is done, the movement is finished. The whole party has been yanked far to the right. I seem to remember a time period when Haley for instance was a tea party favourites no? Now she's seen as a 'moderate' Repub. Because 'moderate' now just means accepting the basic tenant of democracy and handover of power.
After Trump, there'll probably be a little period of infighting, until another charismatic narcissist rises up and takes his place. The right wing is having this momentum everywhere, the US won't be different.
For me, the bigger questions are: how do you get all (or at least: many) these people back into normalcy? Not just in the US, radicalized right-wingers everywhere. And more immediately: how can the US stop violence from erupting if Trump doesn't win? Cause significant rioting seems pretty much a dead certainty by now in case of a Trump loss.
It's scary.
I’ll tell you what really annoys me; my wife has 2.5 years to retirement. Then we’re off to Spain for a year, or longer if it works out.
If trump wins in November then that leaves us with 2 full years of that fcuker and his followers.
I don’t think I’ll be able to suffer through it.
If trump wins in November then that leaves us with 2 full years of that fcuker and his followers.
I don’t think I’ll be able to suffer through it.
Yep. Its comforting I know but I can't see how people are so confidently talking about how this movement ceases to exist whenever Trump is gone, as if he's always been a savvy political operator manipulating the masses. 8 years ago, he was an absolute meme.
I do agree with the general theme of your post. At least with the right wing in Europe (for now....) there's an acceptance of election results, though maybe that's because they're winning right now.
Almost 70% of Repubs/ Repub leaning 'independents' believe the 2020 win was illegitimate. That is terrifying. When such vast swathes of the population are no longer accepting the legitimacy of the electoral process....I'm not entirely sure how you come back from that.
Trump will name his successor and they'll then follow blindly
Yes, but there is already a lot of talk there, too, about governments weaponizing the justice system, and so on and so forth. It's not as commonly believed yet in those circles, but it's getting there. And more generally, there are a lot of truly crazy notions in these people's heads now. I worry it will really mess up necessary processes (like vaccination campaigns) and changes (like against climate change). So, how do you bring these people back into a normal range of opinions? And by that I don't mean my opinion, just something in the non-radical right-to-left spectrum; cause currently the tendency on the right is just to drift further into weirdness.
Or the judicial process: it's become totally normalized in the US to question any and all judicial decisions/sentences, and of course the electoral process, and see everything through a polarized, political lens. I'm not suggesting the justice system is totally fair and neutral and equal, but the tone of current comments is in an entirely different league to saying there are unconscious and societal biases, or that sort of thing.
It wouldn't be finished, but in the absence of a charismatic demagogue leading the charge, it would probably collapse back into what it was before Trump ran in 2015, which is more of a decentralized Tea Party style model involving R freedom caucus types like Gosar, Biggs, MJT, Gaetz, and the like leading the way. They wouldn't have enough support to be the majority faction in the GOP in the absence of Trump's influence to steer them that way.
My point though is that its impossible to say that it will just collapse away because we don't know how the political landscape will look whenever Trump is finally done.
Let's not rewrite history here, everyone (including myself) thought Trump's initial run for nomination in 2016 was a joke. We all laughed at his funny nicknames but I I challenge anyone to seriously suggest they were predicting back in 2016 that in 2024 we'd be talking about Trump's 'charismatic demagoguery'. We were all talking about how idiotic he was being, how Bush, Cruz or Rubio were going to sweep him aside.
Nobody predicted this. Nobody looked at this moronic tycoon from New York and his stupid business show and thought he'd be leading a quasi- fascistic movement in the USA who probably would have won 2 terms were it not for Covid and looks like he may win again regardless.
Once the horse has bolted, I'm not so sure its easy to go back to 'middle of the road' Conservatives like McCain (who of course contributed himself to where we are via nominating Palin).
Does having a D president changes things on state level?
Wasnt it all about the state?
Wasnt it all about the state?
We can't predict the future, but it would be fair to say the MAGA movement is just a slogan for one person's political interests in winning the Presidency. Therefore without a cult leader, the movement doesn't have any leadership to drive it forward. It would be similar to the Tea Party movement from 2009-15, which saw a decentralized wave of politicians ride into office during the 2010 mid-terms (Cruz/Rubio/Haley etc) and eventually culinated in the rise of the freedom caucus in the House and Trump's MAGA movement. Without Trump, it would probably just revert back to what it was before him since there isn't anyone who even comes close to replacing Trump as cult leader.
This is also why a lot of ordinary Republicans are suddenly defending Trump in his legal cases. They know if he falls, he will take much of the party down with him.
Or it's the other way round: they know that Trump fans are now the Republican base and need to be catered to - and so they're out-competing each other to show their allegiance to Trump and support of his ideas. But that's a self-sustaining cycle, where every such utterance confirms that stance towards the base and then leads to a further need to confirm it again, and go even further if possible, next time.
And so I think that, through that process, the base of the party is moving ever further into craziness, and that what was previously the Tea Party fringe is now the Republican mainstream. And that, therefore, that's where future leaders will be positioning themselves. Of course, this movement can be reversed through different leadership, but it will be a slow process that can also be reversed in turn.
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Yeah there could be a bit of that as well. Ultimately, non MAGA Republicans would become political refugees if the entire Republican party were to go down in flames if Trump goes down. The only ones that may be happy about that would be the likes of Liz Cheney, Romney and a few other stragglers.