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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sun_tzu said:
I suspect also the government are also considering making a free vote (like they did in 1971)

Yes this will probably loose them another 5 cabinet votes... but it will make it impossibe for labour to put up a 3 line whip to compel members to vote against it without looking like they are putting party politics first and potentially therefore carrying most of the blame for a no deal...

its a roll of the dice but shes out of other options so they will release everything they can to get labour mps on board - especially those who know that momentum is going to de-select them anyway so why not actually vote for a deal if they think its better than the alternative

its going to come down to how is hated most in their own party - may or corbyn - and its gonna be close - the state of uk politics eh
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I read up again about Heath's strategy in 1971. The free vote thing was a bit of a master stroke. With most commentators saying they'd lose or it was too close to call, they wound up with a 112 majority.
 
Honest John said:
I read up again about Heath's strategy in 1971. The free vote thing was a bit of a master stroke. With most commentators saying they'd lose or it was too close to call, they wound up with a 112 majority.
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it was ken clarke who talked him into it apparently...
and of course it was a key reason the labour party split...

I have to say Im not sure there are enough MP's who would vote with the conservative party this time... I also dont think many would want to be seen to abstain on the issue so labour MP's really would be throwing their career under a bus I think to side with May?

That said if there was a new centrist Remain Party formed Im sure there would be plenty more who might jump ship and sail into the election on that particular lifeboat - but I hoestly dont think there is time for that.

Gut feel Mays vote fails by 20 or so votes
 
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Honest John said:
If the government has approved it being made available then it must rate the WA + FTA very favourable.
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Nah, they were gonna lose a vote on it anyway so spared themselves the added anguish.
 
sun_tzu said:
it was ken clarke who talked him into it apparently...
and of course it was a key reason the labour party split...

I have to say Im not sure there are enough MP's who would vote with the conservative party this time... I also dont think many would want to be seen to abstain on the issue so labour MP's really would be throwing their career under a bus I think to side with May?

That said if there was a new centrist Remain Party formed Im sure there would be plenty more who might jump ship and sail into the election on that particular lifeboat - but I hoestly dont think there is time for that.

Gut feel Mays vote fails by 20 or so votes
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I don't know if it would happen but the worry of being deselected I image plays a part. Considering it a lot easy to do now.
 
Sweet Square said:
I don't know if it would happen but the worry of being deselected I image plays a part. Considering it a lot easy to do now.
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i have to say if there was a snap general election they might be safe - or does labours new selection policy come into effect if an election is called... because I think if one is called then it 6 weeks to the polls and thats going to be messy if there is infighting over who the candidate is and incumbent mps standing as independents etc.
But yeah if they side with May their odds on reselection have to diminish even if corbyn allowed a free vote on the issue... it will be red tory blairite scum etc
 
Sassy Colin said:
He should have been the Tory Party leader at some point in his career, but he was too pro-Europe, or something.
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He finiahed 2nd to haigue I think in 97
And again to ids
Eliminated in the first round when Cameron won

Hard to think he wouldn't have done better than at least 2 of them

And how Michael howard won uncontested is honestly still a mystery to me
 
Sassy Colin said:
He should have been the Tory Party leader at some point in his career, but he was too pro-Europe, or something.
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That's exactly my memory of it. He as good as threw away his chance to be PM because he wouldn't give up or hide his views on Europe.

Quite a contrast to the current lot, May believes in Europe but wouldn't let that get in the way of her being PM, and Corbyn who doesn't believe in Europe but hides it as best he can to keep his chance of being PM alive. Disgraceful and sad at the same time.
 
The only news item talked about in my house today, so far, was indeed Larry the Cat. Did Larry miaow for help or did he use his special pussycat eyeball telepathy to communicate his requirements? They haven't given us anywhere near enough detail, as usual.
 
Yeah. What are they hiding about Larry the Cat?
 


A tweet from a BBC NI reporter. Says alot when local NI business leaders and even farmers are now saying they back May's deal. Unsurprisingly the DUP aren't happy about that and it has upset Arlene and Sammy as they are more concerned about the Union than the people back home having a few quid.
 
madzo2007 said:


A tweet from a BBC NI reporter. Says alot when local NI business leaders and even farmers are now saying they back May's deal. Unsurprisingly the DUP aren't happy about that and it has upset Arlene and Sammy as they are more concerned about the Union than the people back home having a few quid.
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Yeah f*ck the people. The union is way more important
 
I have respect for Teresa May in terms of what she’s trying to do with Brexit, but she should never been forgiven for allowing those backward DUP fascists any kind of power in the commons.
 
Eire Red United said:
I have respect for Teresa May in terms of what she’s trying to do with Brexit, but she should never been forgiven for allowing those backward DUP fascists any kind of power in the commons.
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It really is a shocking situation. You would think they were the ruling party in NI with the way this mess unfolded. Gotta keep the party that's losing voters every year happy against the will of the people themselves.
Its a scandal.
 
Honest John said:
In a way all solutions to this have the potential to be declared a success. It all depends on how much pain people are prepared to take and for how long. Is the EU system the best there is? The Aussies among others might disagree.

I was not entirely happy with the EU but voted remain - on the don't-rock-the-leaky-boat or better-the-devil-you know basis.
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Huh? Most Aussies think the UK has gone collectively insane.
 
Of there's a GE, would be interesting to see Labour's brexit policy. The nonsese about SM access without obligation doesn't cut it.
 
Adisa said:
Of there's a GE, would be interesting to see Labour's brexit policy. The nonsese about SM access without obligation doesn't cut it.
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I can only see three options really

1. They dont have a policy (we will seek to extend A50 and renegotiate a deal delivering on the will of the people and passing our 6 tests) - flannel basically and it wont hold up to scrutiny
2. put off the decision by having a second referendum (they would probably need to figure out what the question would be which wouldnt be easy either)
3. Blame Blair and ignore Brexit

they will probably go with a mix of 1 & 3 would be my guess
 
sun_tzu said:
I can only see three options really

1. They dont have a policy (we will seek to extend A50 and renegotiate a deal delivering on the will of the people and passing our 6 tests) - flannel basically and it wont hold up to scrutiny
2. put off the decision by having a second referendum (they would probably need to figure out what the question would be which wouldnt be easy either)
3. Blame Blair and ignore Brexit

they will probably go with a mix of 1 & 3 would be my guess
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They have to run on something. Imo, 2&3 would be impossible to run on during the campaign. They would be slaughtered by the Tory mob.
 
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Sweet Square said:
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Can they actually block a no deal brexit though?
i mean it says in law we leave on 29th March and if we dont have a transition deal in place its no deal
There is a court case to see if the UK can unilaterally extend A50 (we may not be able to and the EU may not agree)
The EU have said they are not up for renegotiating the deal
so if they cant extend A50 unilaterally then it actually is Mays deal or No deal and they cant block it can they?
 
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