Westminster Politics

Jippy said:
This could take bloody ages, given half the party seems to be putting themselves forward.
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Yes... Though it is likley we will get say 10 candidates I suspect a lot would drop out around 2nd or 3rd round when it was clear they couldn't win but could still trade their support for a key role

I'd be surprised if it took more than a couple of weeks in total t(to get to a final two) though in theory it could easily drag out for a couple of months

There is also a possibility let's say the last 3 are raab gove and Johnson that if Johnson gets to the final two the other one would withdraw for the sake of party unity (i.e. they know they would get smashed in a ballot of members) but gove and raab would of course be more than happy to go against each other (as they think they can win)... It's all about the tactical voting of the ABB brigade (Anyone But Boris) and if they can keep him from the final two
 
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Adisa said:
I just hope it goes to the members. Pushes the party further to the right and off a cliff.
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You realise this person's gonna be PM, and we don't have to have another GE for another three years, right?
 
Classical Mechanic said:
If the Tories can't get no deal through parliament or crash us out of the EU with no deal, wouldn't this make a GE very likely sooner?
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Maybe? But the US has made me very wary of wanting severely right wing people to win just because they seem easier to beat in an election, particularly if it's reliant on Tory MPs and the DUP to bring that election about.
 
sun_tzu said:
I do wonder if Boris does not win if he might not bubmle off in a huff and join up with farrage
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Won't happen. Boris a remainer at heart and has used Brexit as a way to advance his career to no. 10. As horrible as the man is, I don't get the impression he dislikes people based upon the colour of their skin.
 
Course he doesn't

"Colonialism 'the best fate for Africa'

"Papua New Guinea 'cannibalism'

‘Part-Kenyan’ Obama"

"Picanninnies and ‘watermelon smiles’

"Muslim women ‘letter boxes’
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sun_tzu said:
Yes... Though it is likley we will get say 10 candidates I suspect a lot would drop out around 2nd or 3rd round when it was clear they couldn't win but could still trade their support for a key role

I'd be surprised if it took more than a couple of weeks in total t(to get to a final two) though in theory it could easily drag out for a couple of months

There is also a possibility let's say the last 3 are raab gove and Johnson that if Johnson gets to the final two the other one would withdraw for the sake of party unity (i.e. they know they would get smashed in a ballot of members) but gove and raab would of course be more than happy to go against each other (as they think they can win)... It's all about the tactical voting of the ABB brigade (Anyone But Boris) and if they can keep him from the final two
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Tbf it does seem like some of the less limely candidates, eg Williamson, are now backing others rather than staking their own claim.

Adisa said:
I just hope it goes to the members. Pushes the party further to the right and off a cliff.
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And us with it, come 31 October.

oates said:
I don't think they are in a particular hurry.
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That's the fear. Clock runs down, no deal by default and people genuinely think Boris or Raab have the brains to find a way through it.

Hope Hammond can torpedo both.
 
Jippy said:
That's the fear. Clock runs down, no deal by default and people genuinely think Boris or Raab have the brains to find a way through it.
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A strong Opposition Leader would make mincemeat of Johnson, Gove, Raab or Hammond. First two are liars and bumblers, the second two are pure bodgers. Johnson does his homework on nothing and like Trump has attention deficit disorder and can't remember what he had for dinner the day before.

But we don't have a strong Opposition Leader.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
If the Tories can't get no deal through parliament or crash us out of the EU with no deal, wouldn't this make a GE very likely sooner?
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Yes... Equally a New pm very often gets a boost in the polls... Chuck in the calls for indy ref2... Brexit party... Labour actually having to make up a brexit policy and potentially libs universally adored legend and greens Forming a remain alliance though and with that much uncertainty you might see them trying to hold together the coalition with the dup? ... Not sure if that will be viable or not to be honest
 
If Boris gets in I suspect even outright liberal Remain Tory MP's will end up backing a No Deal to save the party. Don't underestimate how much they desperately love the party and despise the idea of Corbyn ever holding power.
 
Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.

It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week :D
 
Smores said:
Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.

It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week :D
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When push comes to shove and it looks like going against Boris might actually remove the party from power they will probably cave. See someone like Mundell in Scotland who casually threatens resignation every time the party does something anti-Scotland while ultimately never actually standing down. Or Davidson who threatened back in the day to separate from the UK branch if Boris ever got him but who will, again, cave when push comes to shove.
 
Cheesy said:
When push comes to shove and it looks like going against Boris might actually remove the party from power they will probably cave. See someone like Mundell in Scotland who casually threatens resignation every time the party does something anti-Scotland while ultimately never actually standing down. Or Davidson who threatened back in the day to separate from the UK branch if Boris ever got him but who will, again, cave when push comes to shove.
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Yup. Ditto Rudd and her "One Nation" group. Sandwiched between Corbyn and Farage, they'll take the devil they know every time.
 
Smores said:
Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.

It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week :D
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A Tory voting to bring down a Tory government and risking a Socialist?
 
Cheesy said:
When push comes to shove and it looks like going against Boris might actually remove the party from power they will probably cave. See someone like Mundell in Scotland who casually threatens resignation every time the party does something anti-Scotland while ultimately never actually standing down. Or Davidson who threatened back in the day to separate from the UK branch if Boris ever got him but who will, again, cave when push comes to shove.
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Probably the case for most of them aye as there's little backbone in politics but i do think you'll see some go Change UK and some just independent until a new leader takes over.

The remainers won't exactly be welcome in a Boris government especially Hammond. I know I'm being optimistic though
 
Ubik said:
Yup. Ditto Rudd and her "One Nation" group. Sandwiched between Corbyn and Farage, they'll take the devil they know every time.
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I know their situation is bleaker now but just look at 2016. It was assumed the party were in disarray after tearing themselves after over the referendum. Within weeks they'd all united behind May while Labour spent the rest of the summer tearing themselves apart. Remainers accepted Brexit had to happen and Brexiteers decided she was a decent vehicle from that.

We'll get Clarke saying this isn't the party he knows, we'll get Hammond saying it's economic recklessness, John Major will be wheeled out to say he probably wouldn't vote for them in 2022, but when push comes to shove it's best to emphasise the Tories will prioritise survival.
 
Smores said:
Hammond and Greening both more or less saying they'll bring down any leader who goes for no deal. Could be massive because i think they'll have the numbers behind them to aid Labour in a VONC.

It's all a matter of timing though as any GE would need to be triggered by August at the latest. Be good to see Boris face a VONC in his first week :D
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Parliament is in recess from July isn't it... So any voc needs to be by then... And the leadership contest might not even be finished by then
Defaut no deal looks like
 
oates said:
A strong Opposition Leader would make mincemeat of Johnson, Gove, Raab or Hammond. First two are liars and bumblers, the second two are pure bodgers. Johnson does his homework on nothing and like Trump has attention deficit disorder and can't remember what he had for dinner the day before.

But we don't have a strong Opposition Leader.
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The other three are all shite. I only mentioned Hammond cos he's no interest in running for PM, knows whoever wins will sack him, so by all accounts he is just trying to scupper Johnson and Raab by highlighting how economically disastrous both will be.
 
Jippy said:
The other three are all shite. I only mentioned Hammond cos he's no interest in running for PM, knows whoever wins will sack him, so by all accounts he is just trying to scupper Johnson and Raab by highlighting how economically disastrous both will be.
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I keep getting Hammond mixed up with Hunt. Both Weasels.
 
oates said:
I keep getting Hammond mixed up with Hunt. Both Weasels.
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I don't mind Hammond, but with the giant caveat that it's relative to the rest of that front bench. At least he is realistic about what no deal means.
 
Publicly declared MP backers so far...

It might be possible to keep Boris out of the final two at this rate... Raab Vs gove is pretty uninspiring stuff though

Dominic Raab 20
Michael Gove 19
Boris Johnson 15
Jeremy Hunt 14
Sajid Javid 8
Matt Hancock 6
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 3
Andrea Leadsom 2
 
sun_tzu said:
Publicly declared MP backers so far...

It might be possible to keep Boris out of the final two at this rate... Raab Vs gove is pretty uninspiring stuff though

Dominic Raab 20
Michael Gove 19
Boris Johnson 15
Jeremy Hunt 14
Sajid Javid 8
Matt Hancock 6
Esther McVey 5
Mark Harper 3
Andrea Leadsom 2
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14 for Jeremy Hunt. How do these people function.
 
Who is the best / most likely remain leaning candidate for the Tories?
 
Boris will win it easily I think. The tories will be trying to miraculously come back from the dead. Boris will either achieve it for them, or will sink them without trace.
All the others have no chance of saving the party at the next election.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Boris will win it easily I think. The tories will be trying to miraculously come back from the dead. Boris will either achieve it for them, or will sink them without trace.
All the others have no chance of saving the party at the next election.
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I'm not so sure. I'd agree if they had a similar selection process as Labour, but I think the majority of MPs who aren't supporting Raab, Johnson, Mcvey etc will be voting against them at pretty much all costs.

I can see the majority of remain MPs backing Hunt and the majority of moderate leave or remain but "respecting the result" voting for Gove.

I can't instantly see Johnson or Raab getting the support of 107 MPs (even after one is knocked out). It's why I think Gove is a good bet at 6/1 as if it were him against Hunt he'd win comfortably.

Ubik said:
14 for Jeremy Hunt. How do these people function.
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He's well respected in political circles in truth. He's also justifiably regarded as one of (if not the) most intelligent people in politics.
 
finneh said:
I'm not so sure. I'd agree if they had a similar selection process as Labour, but I think the majority of MPs who aren't supporting Raab, Johnson, Mcvey etc will be voting against them at pretty much all costs.

I can see the majority of remain MPs backing Hunt and the majority of moderate leave or remain but "respecting the result" voting for Gove.

I can't instantly see Johnson or Raab getting the support of 107 MPs (even after one is knocked out). It's why I think Gove is a good bet at 6/1 as if it were him against Hunt he'd win comfortably.
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The tory MPs will now be considering what is more important for them personally right now. EU membership or being wiped out and jobless?
Leaving the EU and keeping their jobs will probably be preferred to staying in the EU and losing their jobs, and watching Corbyn clean up.

I think it's highly likely that Boris will change and mobilise the cabinet, and install popular characters into his cabinet like Jacob Rees Mogg, and go on the offensive to win back confidence from the voters.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
The tory MPs will now be considering what is more important for them personally right now. EU membership or being wiped out and jobless?
Leaving the EU and keeping their jobs will probably be preferred to staying in the EU and losing their jobs, and watching Corbyn clean up.

I think it's highly likely that Boris will change and mobilise the cabinet, and install popular characters into his cabinet like Jacob Rees Mogg, and go on the offensive to win back confidence from the voters.
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Again I'm not so sure. Those tactics would work with the Tory membership but absolutely wouldn't with a large portion of MPs.

I can imagine the "anyone but Boris" group will widen to "anyone but Boris or Raab". I believe that group will be triple figures.
 
finneh said:
Again I'm not so sure. Those tactics would work with the Tory membership but absolutely wouldn't with a large portion of MPs.

I can imagine the "anyone but Boris" group will widen to "anyone but Boris or Raab". I believe that group will be triple figures.
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I think this would be true if the conservatives had a healthy opinion poll, but as I said, I think we'll see the party opt for drastic measures for a drastic situation in order to try and save themselves.
 
How about this for House of Lords reform and a simple proportional system?

Chop the House of Lords down to 192 Lords.

Each Lord, when elected, renounces all political party ties and is barred from re-joining any political party for life. - This means that each Lord can avoid the prevailing wind of political opinion, and vote against their old short term party interests in favour of the long term public good.

Each Lord is elected for a twenty year period. This means they don't have to worry about running for re-election every few years. The implication being that after serving your twenty-year stint, you should probably retire (if you haven't already).

The UK is divided into eleven regions. Like the EU Elections

Each year, two of the ten regions elect 5 Lords each (plus additional ones if any have retired or died before their time). This low number of regions and low number of candidates allows decent coverage and scrutiny to be applied to all of Lords being nominated.

Each constituent of the regions voting for the lord that year get's a single vote placed with an "X". The actual voting format is therefore identical to a General Election, no ranking necessary.. This low number of regions and low number of candidates allows decent coverage and scrutiny to be applied to all of Lords being nominated.

Once the votes have been counted, any candidate with over 20% of the vote is immediately elected as a Lord.

Any votes left over the 20% requirement are "spare votes". The newly Elected Lord can choose another candidate to donate those "spare votes" too - or can choose to discard them. Example: Boris Johnson is elected as a lord with 25% of the vote (a total of 500,000 votes). He, therefore, has 5% of his vote that he can donate to another candidate if he wants to (100,000 votes). There are three other (soon to be former) Conservatives running, trying to take the four Lords seats. The other front runner, Amber Rudd is on 18% of the vote. If Johnson chooses to donate his votes to Rudd, she will be elected as a Lord. However, he instead chooses to donate his additional 100,000 votes to a close ally, Gavin Williamson. That takes Gavin Williamson from 6% of the vote to 11%.

If no candidate has over 20% of the votes, then the candidate with the lowest votes remaining is eliminated. This candidate can then choose who to donate her votes to. Example: Siân Berry formerly of the Green party is running as a candidate in the London House of Lords elections. She has 3% of the vote which is the lowest score remaining. She is eliminated and can choose who to donate her votes to. Running neck and neck are Nick Clegg (Lib Dem) and Tony Baldry (Conservative) on 11% and 12% respectively. Sian Berry wants to push forward a candidate with principles similar to her own. She chooses to donate her 3% of the votes to Nick Clegg, to put him above Tony Baldry, as Nick Clegg has better Green credentials.

This is repeated until there are 4 elected Lords.

Longer Example

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Using the current generation of London politicians as an example, maybe we'd get something like this.

Initially, Sir Vince Cable and Boris Johnson immediately have over 20% of the vote, so they are elected and can choose who to give their remaining vote share to. Boris Johnson chooses to give his additional 3% vote to his brother Jo Johnson, rather than Ian Duncan Smith who is ahead of him. Vince Cable gives his remaining 1% to fellow Lib Dem Ed Davey.

No one else has 20% of the vote, so one by one the lowest scoring candidate that remains is eliminated. This continues much as you'd expect, with each party keeping their vote within their own ranks.

This continues until Kier Starmer, until 7% of the vote, is eliminated and passes his vote to Diane Abbott on 18%, giving her 25% of the vote.

Diane Abbot is elected, with 5% of the vote to spare.

oeON2pA.png


Diane Abbott is the last Labour candidate remaining. She has 5% of the vote left which she can donate.

The remaining candidates she can donate her 5% of the vote to, are:

Sian Berry - Green
Sir Ed Davey - Lib Dem
Jo Johnson - Conservative.

Or she can scrap the 5% of her vote.

She doesn't want Jo Johnson to be elected. If she scraps her vote, the "pass threshold" is lowered from 20% to approximately 18.8% and the candidate with the lowest remaining score is Sir Ed Davey.

Sir Ed Davey would be eliminated and would likely choose to elect Conservative Jo Johnson over Green Sian Berry - which is not what Diane Abbot wants.

So Diane Abbott decides to donate her 5% to get either Green Sian Berry or Lib Dem Sir Ed Davey elected

She feels her policies are more similar to Sir Ed Davey's so chooses to get him elected.


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So the result is

Lib Dem - 2
Labour - 1
Conservative - 1

Although they are serving as individual candidates from this point forward anyway
I like this - because it could add some real drama and gamesmanship to proceedings

Edit: realised I've a mistake and with 4 candidates the threshold should be 25% not 20%

You get the idea though
 
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finneh said:
So apparently current numbers of confirmed backers are:

Gove - 18
Raab - 16
Johnson - 14
Hunt - 13
Javid - 8
Hancock - 6
Mcvey - 5
Other - 7
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I would love to see Gove get it.
Now that really would spell the end of the nasty party.
 
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