Westminster Politics

I just can’t see Johnson winning for some reason. He’s destined to be one of those hypotheticals in British politics. I’d put my money on a Hunt/Gove ticket.

In breaking news, Mark Francois has just put forward Steve Baker!
 
MoskvaRed said:
I just can’t see Johnson winning for some reason. He’s destined to be one of those hypotheticals in British politics. I’d put my money on a Hunt/Gove ticket.

In breaking news, Mark Francois has just put forward Steve Baker!
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I think we will see a big field something like 10 people... say

Johnson
Raab
Gove
Hunt
Ledsom
Liddington
Stewart
Baker
Brady
Javid

Im sure people like Rudd, Cleverly, Davies, Mordaunt are all testing the water as well but will probably struggle to get enough support to look anything other than foolosh... I suspect Mogg will try to play the role of kingmaker in exchange for chancellor or brexit minister role

I suspect that after the first round voting it will be clear a number have no chance and I guess we will see something like

Johnson - banging the brexit drum
Raab - basically saying the same as boris but using the fact he is not boris as his main argument
Gove - being a smiley reptilian and promising MPs anything to get their votes
Hunt - the candidate for the more moderate conservative ,MPs
Leadsom - will bang the brexit brum, leader of the house, experienced female polititian etc - and has some supporters in place from last time
Liddington - will retain a core of may loyalists


Hunt will be mauled over having voted remain, liddinton will be mauled over being associated with May and ledsom has missed her chance so all will probably drop out pretty quick

Leaving Johnson, Raab and Gove

It really will depend how big the anybody but johnson vote is and if Raab or Gove can get mogg onside but if johnson makes it to the final two the other one will probably be better off agreeing not to run and taking a cushy post

Basically I think the only real chance of stopping Johnson is conservative MP's being worried that the membership is actually crazy enough to vote for him to be PM

any of those 3 win and its probably a hard brexit and a snap election I think
 
Gove or Raab will get it, maybe Leadsom.

They will be manipulated towards a no deal, take all the blame and Boris will take over the reins as the hero the country neither needs nor wants.
 
Pexbo said:
Gove or Raab will get it, maybe Leadsom.

They will be manipulated towards a no deal, take all the blame and Boris will take over the reins as the hero the country neither needs nor wants.
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Hes not that Machiavellian...
Mogg on the other hand
PAY-Brexit-with-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-01-Oct-2017jpged.jpg
 
Any chance Rory Stewart gets the job? He wrote a couple of books that I really enjoyed, seemed like a sensible, decent sort of guy in them, and he has quite a few interesting life experiences behind him for a youngish dude. No idea what his politics might be though.
 
2cents said:
Any chance Rory Stewart gets the job? He wrote a couple of books that I really enjoyed, seemed like a sensible, decent sort of guy in them, and he has quite a few interesting life experiences behind him for a youngish dude. No idea what his politics might be though.
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He's a remainer so there's little chance of it in my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up a lesser name like Brady though.
 
I believe I’m right that it works with the party/ MPs voting people off, one by one, until we’re down to two candidates that the members would vote for. At that stage, the assumption is that the (older, more Brexity members) would choose Boris over any other candidate. Is that not the worst type of scenario for a Boris?

My thinking is that if it was a straight all-in vote, he would definitely have a strong chance to finish in the final two. But if we’re ultimately at a place where the MPs are choosing two out of three candidates, that’s the easiest type of contest in which a significant portion can work together to push one option into third?

I’m assuming that it will be wittled down to Raab, Boris and one of Hunt/ Javid. At that point, the true leave vote is split, and the soft/remain/Cameroon/anti-Boris Brexiteer MPs could work together to keep him out, no?

The only issue is that this line of thought gives us Dominic Raab as PM. Feck me...
 
Just look at the bunch putting their names in. It's a fecking horror show.
 
hobbers said:
More funding for the NHS and social care coupled with strict controls introduced for non-healthcare-related migration would sweep a lot of votes from tories and from labour imo. Cuts to foreign aid and reduced/no access to healthcare for non-UK citizens would also be strong goers.

Farage surely has given away too much ammo to use against him on the NHS to be the leader of such a party though, hasn't he?

Then just dangle the no-tuition fee nugget for the kids and hey presto, you're in number 10.
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Farage wants to introduce private healthcare like the U.S and phase out the free NHS.
 
Stookie said:
Say goodbye to the NHS if Hunt gets in.
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I don't honestly see this. The Tories would be mad to try - the sane ones know it - and whoever gets in is going to be doing nothing but Brexit for the next 10 years anyway.
 
2cents said:
Any chance Rory Stewart gets the job? He wrote a couple of books that I really enjoyed, seemed like a sensible, decent sort of guy in them, and he has quite a few interesting life experiences behind him for a youngish dude. No idea what his politics might be though.
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Very strong chance of making the final two for me. Whilst the ERG mob get the headlines it's actually likely that nearly half the Tory MPs are Remainers, and I think they will coalesce on Stewart whilst the Brexiters knife fight it out for the other spot. Then the party members will decide between the last two and Stewart will come a distant second unfortunately. If anyone sees a betting company offering odds on the last two let me know!
 
711 said:
Very strong chance of making the final two for me. Whilst the ERG mob get the headlines it's actually likely that nearly half the Tory MPs are Remainers, and I think they will coalesce on Stewart whilst the Brexiters knife fight it out for the other spot. Then the party members will decide between the last two and Stewart will come a distant second unfortunately. If anyone sees a betting company offering odds on the last two let me know!
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Think I see that role as more likely to be taken by Javid (though the ending remains the same). Mordaunt would be my outside bet.
 
Ubik said:
Think I see that role as more likely to be taken by Javid (though the ending remains the same). Mordaunt would be my outside bet.
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I might be underestimating Javid I suppose, I daresay he has a much bigger profile in the South than up here in Lancashire. As you say it's hard to see a Brexiter not getting the membership vote though.
 
Think it's time pay a visit to an old friend. "Spinners and Losers" special episode of The Thick of It for me tonight.
 
Handy little quick guide to how to elect another tory wastrel taken from the Sunday Telegraph -

In brief | How Conservative leaders are selected
The process is instigated by either the incumbent resigning or the Parliamentary Party passing a vote of no confidence.
Such a vote is automatically triggered if the 1922 Committee receives demands for new leadership carrying the
signatures of 15 per cent of Conservative MPs (currently 48).

The Conservative Party then uses a twofold system to select a new leader:

The Conservative Chief Whip (currently Julian Smith) receives nominations from party members.

  • If just one MP is nominated, they are automatically installed as party leader.

  • If multiple names are put forward, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held. The lowest-polling name is removed and another ballot is held. This continues on subsequent Tuesdays and Thursdays until just two nominees remain.

  • These two nominees are then put to a ballot of the wider Conservative Party membership, with the winner becoming the new Conservative leader.
 


This is the man who could be leading our country. It's a good thread.
 
So apparently current numbers of confirmed backers are:

Gove - 18
Raab - 16
Johnson - 14
Hunt - 13
Javid - 8
Hancock - 6
Mcvey - 5
Other - 7
 
oates said:
Handy little quick guide to how to elect another tory wastrel taken from the Sunday Telegraph -

In brief | How Conservative leaders are selected
The process is instigated by either the incumbent resigning or the Parliamentary Party passing a vote of no confidence.
Such a vote is automatically triggered if the 1922 Committee receives demands for new leadership carrying the
signatures of 15 per cent of Conservative MPs (currently 48).

The Conservative Party then uses a twofold system to select a new leader:

The Conservative Chief Whip (currently Julian Smith) receives nominations from party members.

  • If just one MP is nominated, they are automatically installed as party leader.

  • If multiple names are put forward, a ballot of Conservative MPs is held. The lowest-polling name is removed and another ballot is held. This continues on subsequent Tuesdays and Thursdays until just two nominees remain.

  • These two nominees are then put to a ballot of the wider Conservative Party membership, with the winner becoming the new Conservative leader.
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This could take bloody ages, given half the party seems to be putting themselves forward.
 
finneh said:
So apparently current numbers of confirmed backers are:

Gove - 18
Raab - 16
Johnson - 14
Hunt - 13
Javid - 8
Hancock - 6
Mcvey - 5
Other - 7
Click to expand...
Baker will get probably 40 or so votes from the erg... Though ultimately they will switch to Johnson or raab depending who promices the hardest brexit... Probably Johnson
 
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