1,334 and Labour 80 .But the Beeb as them as equally damaged.A net loss of 1,269 for the Tories
Not even the worst case predictions before hand expected it to be that bad. Tories trying to say Labour are in the same boat because they had a net loss of 60 odd
Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
When the Government haemorrhages 1300 seats and the official opposition doesn’t pick them up, both parties can consider that a disaster.
Equally Conservatives got 3562 people elected to labours 2023 and the libs 1305...
So it's slightly more nuanced than simply looking at lost councillors
And the Torys did better than expected in the last round of these local elections back in 2015, while Labour did badly back then. And of course its normal for Governments to do badly in mid-term locals while its unusual for the opposition to do so. Its like comparing a 5-0 away defeat to Barcelona to a 1-0 home defeat to Huddersfield. Simply conceding fewer goals doesnt make it a better result neccesarily. The context matters.
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I could be wrong but wiki suggests that this latest round of results leaves labour as (barely) the largest party of local government despite its failure to gain anything at all. Still did terribly of course.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_make-up_of_local_councils_in_the_United_Kingdom
As of 28 march
Conservatives 7615
Labour 6407
So yeah extrapolating results forwards you would think It will be around
Conservatives 6218
Labour 6327
Having said that a week ago I suspect conservatives would have taken that result and been happier than labour
A lot of the more pro remain places (London
And Scotland) not in play this time and of course change and brexit party not in the mix... Plus the usual Caveat of some people vote on local and some on national issues so very hard to translate into a national / ge scenario... It does seem to be pushing both Labour and conservative leadership's into finding a brexit compromise (customscunion called something else... Customs arrangement?) to avoid an EU election or 2nd ref... Ironically the membership of both parties are moving more apart (2nd ref / hard brexit)
The next couple of weeks in Westminster is going to be quite interesting... Lots of scheming and people positioning themselves to be future leaders I suspect.
Plus potentially farrage standing in the by election
Yeah more nuanced like: Labour lost ~ 4% of its seats vs Conservatives losing about 27% of its seats. Pretty much the same thing.
Yeah more nuanced than the conservatives got 75% more councillors elected than labour imo...
Carl Benjamin has flip-flopped on his stance on rape!
The change in his political position is in the caption of that photo. Politicians these days, just telling the public what they want to hear...
The change in his political position is in the caption of that photo. Politicians these days, just telling the public what they want to hear...
Certainly, I think that's true, but there is a complicating factor here thanks to the a relatively high profile group of MPs who branded themselves the 'Independent Group', polling repeatedly shows how bad the electorate at large is on picking up on things we think are obvious, and it's not outside the realms of possibility that someone who is only half paying attention can hear about an 'Independent Group' who are sick with Labour and the Conservatives and confuse them with the 'Independent' on their ballot paper.
I very highly doubt that that explains most of the votes for Independents, but CHUK are at 10% in the most recent EU polls and it would not surprise me if that did translate to more votes for candidates who appear superficially to be related to them.
It would of course be another of a continued string of ironies supported by that band of incompetents if name confusion did lead votes to vote for independent candidates running on an pro-brexit ticket.
From Private Eye
Influence for sale (yet again):
A girls’ night out with the PM and her posse for £135,000? Bargain
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...nster-and-her-posse-for-135000-pounds-bargain
A girls’ night out with the PM and her posse for £135,000? Bargain
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...nster-and-her-posse-for-135000-pounds-bargain
Williams is going to be a problem for her... He's pretty much the only conservative MP left with good links to the dup... Basically she's just sacked her majority (i.e. she's now as fecked on non brexity stuff as with brexit)
The short sharp get out of my house way the PM has dealt with Gavin Williamson makes you think his 'sin' might be more to do with him caught 'pi**ing in the soup', or leaving a t**d on the carpet. Williamson's apparent mistake in telling the press that a Government security committee discussed how a Chinese company might be helping the Chinese government seems lame really, especially when the PM is perhaps looking for somewhere to hide!
There is a certain 'smell' about all this which might well continue to erupt, if the Downing Street air freshener isn't used soon!
There is a certain 'smell' about all this which might well continue to erupt, if the Downing Street air freshener isn't used soon!
Suspect Williamson will be back after the leadership election... Apparently he's very well connected on the back benches and is seen (at least in his own eyes) as something of a kingmaker
What’s the turnout for these local elections? I don’t know a single person who has voted?
At a guess somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3rd but I've not seen figures
2015 was especially high as the ge took place at the same time ... Another reason why looking into the results and trying to extrapolate is very nuanced
I was the only person in my local poling station at around 8am
Cheeses Christ.Theresa May said:
Cheeses Christ.
Or conversely it shows that despite being on the brink of leaving Europe, it's never too late to turn it around and change course.
Two can play at the game.
Cheeses Christ.
Or you need a Belgian , a Dutchman and a German to dig yourself out the massive hole you've dug.
I thought it was a classical SteveJ wum but she actually said that
Brexit negotiation theme: We go again 'la
Brexit negotiation theme: We go again 'la
EU'll Never Walk Alone.
European opposition?
What on earth does she mean by that?
What on earth does she mean by that?
Daily reminder that the tories and anyone who votes for them are cnuts of the highest order
the comments are i believe a good representaion of her chances...
So a friend just suggested to me that the brexit party might be a movement set to hang around long after the EU elections
Initially I dismissed it thinking it's a single issue party and once brexit is resolved it will lie dormant again...
He challenged me on that and suggested several populist positions he could see farrage and his party taking and that they would in his opinion poll incredibly well.
He's a fairly smart chap and heavily involved with companies and political parties about how to get their message over and connect with people.
In short a brief manifesto something like this and we may see them as a major political force in Westminster elections
1. 100k immigration visas a year (NHS have priority)- no more under any circumstances
2. Can't hire a foreign worker without first having tried to recruit for a UK citizen
3. NHS is only free for UK citizens all others have to have private insurance or pay in advance if treatment
4. 350m extra to NHS (brexit bus etc)
5. Immigrants convicted of a crime are automatically deported
6. Death penalty reintroduced for certain crimes (e.g. terrorist offences)
7. Benefits only available to UK citizens
Not that I agree with the policies... Indeed I think some would be almost impossible to successfully implement... But that said I think they would be popular amongst some and in a first past the post system possibly popular enough to win a lot of seats
Tldr: farrage is going to be pm and it's gonna be a nasty place to live
Initially I dismissed it thinking it's a single issue party and once brexit is resolved it will lie dormant again...
He challenged me on that and suggested several populist positions he could see farrage and his party taking and that they would in his opinion poll incredibly well.
He's a fairly smart chap and heavily involved with companies and political parties about how to get their message over and connect with people.
In short a brief manifesto something like this and we may see them as a major political force in Westminster elections
1. 100k immigration visas a year (NHS have priority)- no more under any circumstances
2. Can't hire a foreign worker without first having tried to recruit for a UK citizen
3. NHS is only free for UK citizens all others have to have private insurance or pay in advance if treatment
4. 350m extra to NHS (brexit bus etc)
5. Immigrants convicted of a crime are automatically deported
6. Death penalty reintroduced for certain crimes (e.g. terrorist offences)
7. Benefits only available to UK citizens
Not that I agree with the policies... Indeed I think some would be almost impossible to successfully implement... But that said I think they would be popular amongst some and in a first past the post system possibly popular enough to win a lot of seats
Tldr: farrage is going to be pm and it's gonna be a nasty place to live
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I think a party with those policies in a General Election setting would basically guarantee a Labour government.
From 2010 - 2017 we saw a pattern of voter migration in the non-metropolitan North and Midlands from Labour to UKIP in the 2015 election and from UKIP to Tory in 2017. I'd therefore argue that the reactionary right has already largely abandoned Labour and that the impact on their vote-share from the rise of the right has already happened. The vast majority of people who would support the policy platform above were Tory voters in 2017, and in the marginals a decent proportion of them have no partisan allegiance to the Tories, having only voted for them in 2017 as they were the most Brexit-y option.
On that basis, I think an organised Farage-led populist party would hit the Tories a lot harder than it would hit Labour.
I see that except I don't think he would gain a majority of seats, although he could do well enough to ensure a hung parliament, again. He would gain votes from Labour as well as Tories I suspect.
Possibly... Though a unified green libs amazing person I admire on a remain / rejoin Europe campaign might equally hit labour if they are still playing 4d unicorn chess over brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-48327335
Farage will make mincemeat of anyone that doesn't have a robust policy on this one.
Presumably farrage will want us build a wall round the coast and make France pay
We've all laughed but we can't escape the fact that Trump won.If Farage becomes PM I would genuinely move out of the country. Him or Boris, in fact.
I honestly don't think Farage can be arsed with the job of Prime Minister. He's lazy.