Mogget
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This is a very cynical view.I’m expecting enough letters to force a vote and for Boris to narrowly avoid a VONC because there’s enough shrewed politicians still in the Tory party to know that Boris is their lightening rod right now and they need him to ride this out for a while yet. One thing is for certain though - he’s not going to lead them to another election and they will time his dismissal just right and there will be a huge media campaign behind the next leader (Sunak) which will inevitably result in a swing back up to 42-44% Tory support leading into the next election.
It's probably exactly what will happen.