Westminster Politics

Raulduke said:
Watching the Tories implode is just :drool:

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Suspect the Conservative party will end up being fairly disciplined with it... they usually are and they will dispatch him fairly quickly and easily

I think removal of covid restrictions and then leaving to spend more time with his newborn will be the end solution

The interesting bit will be do people stand aside for rishi or does it end up being a fight.... I dont think saj, gove or truss will be willing to just stand by... I think hunt might have another crack as well

That could get interesting if it becomes a dirty fight
 
Mickeza said:
If they trigger a leadership challenge do we think Boris will fight it?
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He'll pivot to full attack on the contenders. I have no doubt truss et al are about to have leaks against them as well.

He'll fight it by trying to destroy the party :drool: :drool:
 
Mickeza said:
No this just triggers a leadership contest. It won’t be a vote of no confidence. It’ll be interesting to see if any big hitters run. I don’t think they will - I sense now isn’t the time.
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Don't think so

If the 54 letters are sent to the 1922 Committee, then a vote of no confidence is held, with Conservative MPs voting in support or against the leader. If more than 50 per cent vote against the leader, they are ousted.

Any leader who loses a confidence vote is not allowed to take part in the subsequent leadership contest.
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https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/n...922-committee-boris-johnson-explained-1397123
 
Mickeza said:
Ah! Okay - he’ll survive that surely? Now I’m remembering same happened to May and she survived the first time right?
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In theory if he gets 181 votes then he's safe for a year

In reality just scraping through would probably be untenable ... I think given that with the enquiries etc he might not even get the 181... in truth I wouldn't be surprised if he stepped down to avoid the vote
 
Meeting in the morning to discuss lifting covid restrictions

Could see boris announcing that and leaving at the same time... could be his fig leaf of cover to say he's taken the uk through covid... he's got brexit done and now it's the time to be with his family

Really don't think he's got the appetite for a fight he will probably loose

Could be gone by pmqs... if not that's going to be brutal for him
 
Pexbo said:
Why are you making up the quote? She said:

“You can't say anything about the immigrants because you're saying that you're … but all these eastern European what are coming in, where are they flocking from?”


You don’t think that’s bigoted?
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I think it is a bit.

Ultimately though I think she was worried about people like you. Living in 1 bed flats no outdoor space and shared bathrooms.

"10 years prior to that 5.47m people had come to the uk and that was 8.7% of the total uk population)"

We were never going to be able to build enough housing for all the people coming. You are now stuck with the consequences of that policy, while calling her a bigot for pointing out the eventual detrimental effect you seem upset about.

Just a thought for debate nothing personal.
 
Buster15 said:
What are you expecting?
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I’m expecting enough letters to force a vote and for Boris to narrowly avoid a VONC because there’s enough shrewed politicians still in the Tory party to know that Boris is their lightening rod right now and they need him to ride this out for a while yet. One thing is for certain though - he’s not going to lead them to another election and they will time his dismissal just right and there will be a huge media campaign behind the next leader (Sunak) which will inevitably result in a swing back up to 42-44% Tory support leading into the next election.
 
simpsons-hook-it-to-my-veins.gif
 
Do the 'red wall plotters' really believe getting rid of Boris now will help them retain their seats?.....if so, then there is hope for Labour yet.... as long as they get their act together in Scotland as well!
 
Maticmaker said:
Do the 'red wall plotters' really believe getting rid of Boris now will help them retain their seats?.....if so, then there is hope for Labour yet.... as long as they get their act together in Scotland as well!
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They are in full panic mode :drool:

 
Maticmaker said:
Do the 'red wall plotters' really believe getting rid of Boris now will help them retain their seats?.....if so, then there is hope for Labour yet.... as long as they get their act together in Scotland as well!
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I dont thin that is their calculation

I think they feel hes so badly burned that having him as leader will virtually ensure they loose

Dont think they have thought far enough about who would replace him and if they would help them win... they just know they will loose now so feel he needs to go
 
sun_tzu said:
I dont thin that is their calculation

I think they feel hes so badly burned that having him as leader will virtually ensure they loose

Dont think they have thought far enough about who would replace him and if they would help them win... they just know they will loose now so feel he needs to go
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I find it hard to know what happens with those seats. I could believe most of those seats are unwinnable without brexit being on the line and I could believe that now a load of older voters have broken their habit and finally starting voting with their conservative values that most of them are natural Tory seats that any leader should pick up.
 
Anyway, here's hoping they get the vote and he narrowly survives, leaving him mortally wounded but without them able to trigger another challenge for a year.
 
DOTA said:
I find it hard to know what happens with those seats. I could believe most of those seats are unwinnable without brexit being on the line and I could believe that now a load of older voters have broken their habit and finally starting voting with their conservative values that most of them are natural Tory seats that any leader should pick up.
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My gut feel is that the seats wont move as a block ... as you say demographics and that break in voting habit

Suspect at least some will stay conservative... some will go back to labour ... some may end up with a thrid party but I certainly dont think they will all stay blue or all turn red

Of course when the election is - who the leaders are, if corbyn has launched the Islington peoples front (power to the people etc), if there is a progressive alliance for voter reform will all impact the outcome

Also not sure if the boundary changes had much impact in that region? - didnt think they did
 
WPMUFC said:
They are in full panic mode :drool:
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So it would seem?
However even if the Tories lost most of the 'red wall' seats back to Labour, without Labour winning a good few of its seats back in Scotland the Tories would still have a decent working majority, much less than the 80+ now, but around 15/20+ seats
The 11% lead has to convert into seats in Scotland as well, otherwise its back to square one for Labour.
 
Maticmaker said:
So it would seem?
However even if the Tories lost most of the 'red wall' seats back to Labour, without Labour winning a good few of its seats back in Scotland the Tories would still have a decent working majority, much less than the 80+ now, but around 15/20+ seats
The 11% lead has to convert into seats in Scotland as well, otherwise its back to square one for Labour.
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A coalition with commitment to
1. PR voter reform in the UK (if scotland stays or goes)
2. authorising a 2nd referendum for scotland

That would seem a perfectly realistic objective and one i think libs and greens could also support
 
sun_tzu said:
A coalition with commitment to
1. PR voter reform in the UK (if scotland stays or goes)
2. authorising a 2nd referendum for scotland

That would seem a perfectly realistic objective and one i think libs and greens could also support
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Labour agreeing to a second referendum would surely destroy Labour? I can’t see them allowing that.
 
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