Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
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He must have a very vivid imagination. It's pretty imossible for me to imagine anything worse. I guess if you imagine him doing everything this goverment has done already and then not bowing at the right angle when visiting the Cenotaph, that's worse.
but they are thick
Interesting that the Independent are going in on him:
https://bylinetimes.com/2021/10/21/boris-johnson-and-the-lebedevs-a-funny-peculiar-friendship/
Any chance of a Tory disaster in the North Shropshire by election?
We can only hope. Geoffrey Bastard has at least switched sides apparently. 
Incredible scenes tonight! It’s looking very possible.
Fantastic result for the Dems. Tactical voting has won out, hopefully its sets a template for the next GE.
The opening line of Helen Morgan's acceptance speech works on so may levels...
"Boris Johnson, the party's over!"
Whoever wrote that should be proud, it's a lovely line!
"Boris Johnson, the party's over!"
Whoever wrote that should be proud, it's a lovely line!
Turning a 23,000 con majority into a 5,000 lib dem majority is the sort of swing or Tory disaster we haven't seen since 1997, when again the country was furious with the levels of sleaze emanating from the Tory party!
EDIT: just seen that North Shropshire has been a Tory seat for 200 years. I can't stop laughing!
Great line. God I hope it's a sign of things to come, not just a protest vote.Crikey I didn’t actually expect her to actually win it. Was thinking that just narrowing the margin would be a pretty damaging result for Johnson. That’s got to be a pretty sobering result for the Tories, getting rid of Johnson and installing Sunak won’t fix this over night, the corruption and incompetence is visibly rotten and his entire cabinet and beyond are associated with it.
We'll see, but after Chesham and Amersham back in the summer, which was commuter belt/remain Tory's turning to the Lib Dems (Boris blamed it on local issues) to North Shropshire's rural/leave demographic. It shows that Tory voters at both ends of the spectrum are disillusioned. I'd like to see one of the red wall seats like Bassetlaw come up in a by-election to see if Labour can pull off the trick that they failed to do in the local elections.
This seems to be a very specific anti-Boris vote.
It's a great sign of discontent, don't get me wrong, but isn't this more about the sleazy Owen Paterson and the Tories' reprehensible attempts to save him? You'd definitely add in a dash of disillusionment with Johnson in there and probably a bit of lockdown too (assuming it's very pro-Brexit, so probably staunchly against masks and lockdowns etc).
You're absolutely right, the Owen Paterson debacle was a huge issue. But so were Christmas Parties, donations for doing up flats etc. I think for the first time Johnson was seen in this election as a hindrance, whereas previously he could give Blairesque levels of electoral support in most seats. Chesham and Amersham was written off as a local issue by-election. This one can not be and for a Tory party already pissed off with No.10 this could well be a huge turning point. Once he stops being an electoral asset, MPs will be far more unlikely to put up with his chaotic leadership and in this election he went from electoral asset to massive liability.
YESSSS GO ON LIB DEMS
What were the events around 1997? Was too young then.
Really wish the next election was sooner, I can see the Tories getting hammered as all the sleaze stuff is fresh in memory. But 2024 is a long time away and a lot will be forgotten..
Articles like that aren't a surprise at all, it fits well into the whole cronyism thing. Andrew Gilligan, a former editor at the Telegraph, gave Johnson a crazy amount of press during the London mayoral elections and continuously hammered Ken Livingstone. Surprise surprise, he was given a 6 figure cycling commissioner job by once selected, despite having no experience with cycling. The writer of this article is of the same ilk, hangers-on hoping the positive press coverage will pay off with a good job further down the line.
I know it's only one bi-election, and the Lib Dems have a track record of being bi-election specialists in the past, but still this is excellent news. Any punishment for Johnson and his shambolic administration is always well deserved.
Also didn't this constituency (as part of its overall counting centre) firmly vote to leave in 2016, unlike Chesham and Amersham which voted to remain? This makes the Lib Dem victory even more impressive.
In 1997, the Tories were doomed to defeat anyway (I gather they'd already lost the 1997 election after the events of September 1992 with everything that happened afterwards turning an already inevitable defeat into an inevitable obliteration), but anti-Tory tactical voting with the Lib Dem vote disappearing in Labour-Tory marginals, and the Labour vote disappearing in Lib Dem-Tory marginals, further increased the scale of their defeat. The two parties were far more friendly with each (I gather than Blair and Paddy Ashdown were good friends themselves) back then though.
I understand that there is currently only 1 direct Labour-Lib Dem marginal seat, Sheffield Hallam, so the 2 parties should battle against each other there, but try to stay out of each other's way as much as possible in other constituencies, maybe standing paper candidates and putting in next to zero campaigning effort in seats where the other party clearly has a much better chance of beating the Tories.
Also didn't this constituency (as part of its overall counting centre) firmly vote to leave in 2016, unlike Chesham and Amersham which voted to remain? This makes the Lib Dem victory even more impressive.
In 1997, the Tories were doomed to defeat anyway (I gather they'd already lost the 1997 election after the events of September 1992 with everything that happened afterwards turning an already inevitable defeat into an inevitable obliteration), but anti-Tory tactical voting with the Lib Dem vote disappearing in Labour-Tory marginals, and the Labour vote disappearing in Lib Dem-Tory marginals, further increased the scale of their defeat. The two parties were far more friendly with each (I gather than Blair and Paddy Ashdown were good friends themselves) back then though.
I understand that there is currently only 1 direct Labour-Lib Dem marginal seat, Sheffield Hallam, so the 2 parties should battle against each other there, but try to stay out of each other's way as much as possible in other constituencies, maybe standing paper candidates and putting in next to zero campaigning effort in seats where the other party clearly has a much better chance of beating the Tories.
It's certainly taken some doing, given the sheer volume of shite since he's been PM. There is obviously a chance that a replacement could be even more of cnut, given they're 99.99% certain to be more competent than him to some degree, but it will be a joy to see him gone. Even some chancer like Truss or plain idiot like Raab would be better, surely. Not sure on Sunak, given it's hard to know what he stands for.
Just people getting sick of a tired government that had been in power way too long, was increasingly mired in sleaze and had run out of ideas. The 'back to basics' campaign was a classic, trumpeting family values to try and clean the party's image up, but then one after the other cabinet members got caught out having sordid affairs etc...Plus in-fighting with Major being caught on air saying there were 'seven bastards in his cabinet'.
Yeah absolutely, with half of them probably on the same Oxford PPE course or alumni of the same schools. It's not unusual for journos covering any area, say finance, to move into comms later in their career, but it does seem grubbier when they're joining a political party.
It’s great, but we all know the news cycle moves on, especially if they do get rid of Johnson. The cynic in me knows that Sunak will come in and voters will feel like that’s enough reason they can vote Tory again. I feel like I’ve already seen it 100 times before at the age of 32.
Not sure whose sexuality they were voting on?
Not exactly an amazing situation he'd be walking into. If I were Rishi I'd rather hang on until 2023 I think. Although then again, as chancellor and a Leave campaigner the inflation and other economic problems will be his fault anyway so...maybe sooner is better for him.
Sadly feel like this should be taken somewhat with a pinch of salt given the timing of the by-election/the lack of ramification an election has on the national level/who is running government.
I'm sure a lot of Tory voters who opted for LD would have stuck to their typical voting patterns if it meant potentially paving a way for Labour/non-Tory lead national government.
I'm sure a lot of Tory voters who opted for LD would have stuck to their typical voting patterns if it meant potentially paving a way for Labour/non-Tory lead national government.
There were some great scandals, David Mellor, the married minister for Culture was subject to a kiss and tell, where it was claimed he used to dress up in his Chelsea kit while having an affair with a Spanish actress, revelations including toe sucking and spanking were drip fed through the tabloids for weeks. Then it cam out that his family's holiday had been paid for by the daughter of a vry senior member of the PLO, which at the time was seen as a terrorist organisation.
Then there was the "cash for questions" scandal. The Guardian claimed that a political lobbyist had bribed 2 Tory MPs to ask questions in parliament for the owner of Harrods (and Fulham FC) Mohamed el Fayed at a cost of 2 grand a question. One, Tim Smith resigned but the other one, Neil Hamilton tried to fight it in court, but a private letter from el-Fayed was leaked where he said he had paid them, then some of his employees said they had processed the payments and the legal action was dropped and the press went nuts!
Minister of defence procurement, Jonathan Aitkin was accused by the Guardian of allowing the Saudi Royal family to pay a one thousand pound hotel bill for him (he was selling British arms to the Saudi's at the time) He sued the newspaper saying it was a lie and used the now infamous phrase that he would wield the "sword of truth and shield of fair play" but it turned out it was him that was lying and he ended up in jail for perjury and perverting the course of justice (he wrote a statement for his 18 year old daughter to submit that was also packed full of lies!)
Another junior minister Michael Mates had to resign after his business partner fled the country while under investigation by the Serious Fraud Office.
Steven Norris (transport minister) was caught having 5 affairs at the same time, which led to the headline "Yes yes yes yes yes Minister!" There were loads of affairs and "three in a bed romps" that were exposed.
There was the Westminster council homes for votes scandal where it turned out they were basically gerrymandering in marginal wards by removing homeless people, evicting tenants from council flats and then selling them to people more likely to vote Tory
All of this and much much more as @Jippy says with the bck to basics policy from Major as the backdrop.
Happy days!!
Many voters (unfortunately) considered the election of Johnson as leader in 2019 as effectively a change of government, viewing the Johnson administration as completely separate to the Cameron / May administrations during the previous 9 years.
So messaging that he gave about ending austerity, when his own party had imposed it excessively, was well-received. It was crazy but sadly not unexpected stuff.
But the Tories are ruthless at discarding leaders considered to be a liability, as Thatcher who had an even bigger majority than Johnson currently does (around 100 at the time I think) found out in 1990. Also generally, though 1997 was a clear exception as they were well and truly a spent force in government by that stage (they were probably finished by early 1993 at the latest), the Tories are better than Labour at uniting together when elections come around, and essentially doing what it takes to gain / retain power. We know how much the different wings of the Labour party absolutely despise each other these days (well it has been like that for a while). I do wonder, and I'm not a devoted Corbyn follower or anything, if Labour could have become the largest party in 2017 had there not been internal sabotage from members of his own party hostile to him at the start of the campaign.
So messaging that he gave about ending austerity, when his own party had imposed it excessively, was well-received. It was crazy but sadly not unexpected stuff.
But the Tories are ruthless at discarding leaders considered to be a liability, as Thatcher who had an even bigger majority than Johnson currently does (around 100 at the time I think) found out in 1990. Also generally, though 1997 was a clear exception as they were well and truly a spent force in government by that stage (they were probably finished by early 1993 at the latest), the Tories are better than Labour at uniting together when elections come around, and essentially doing what it takes to gain / retain power. We know how much the different wings of the Labour party absolutely despise each other these days (well it has been like that for a while). I do wonder, and I'm not a devoted Corbyn follower or anything, if Labour could have become the largest party in 2017 had there not been internal sabotage from members of his own party hostile to him at the start of the campaign.
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Got to say that I am not a fan of Sunak.
For the simple reason that, as chancellor, he has not yet been there long enough to show how he is going to balance the books while supporting both those in need and businesses.
To my mind, he is just too 'manufactured' a politician.
I'd all but forgotten about that. Came out with that grandiose speech then was found to have been lying out of his arse.You had the Alan Clark stuff too, with allegations he was sleeping with a mother and her two daughters, 'the coven', as he called them. His diaries were very entertaining.
Major's affair with Edwina Currie, which was a hell of a mental image, only came to light many years later too.
To be fair, Deacon usually writes with his tongue in his cheek, he's about the only Telegraph writer who is bearable/not mad/not geriatric
When Mellor was beaten in Putney in 1997, with the crowd members shouting 'out, out, out', I think one of the smaller parties standing against him had the name 'anything but Mellor', though I think the candidate himself was a crazy gun fanatic.
Alongside the never-ending scandals, weren't the Tory party openly feuding with each other over Europe in those days, when it wasn't even a major issue to the public at the time, especially compared to health, education, crime etc.?
Sometimes Blair himself and some of his supporters spin it as if he came in, saved Labour and made them electable again. But really Labour were already guaranteed to win the 1997 election and gain a comfortable majority (most likely at least on the scale of current Tory majority, if not even bigger) well before Blair even became leader. I think they had consistent 20 point leads in the polls before John Smith died, and the public were sick of the Tories and wanted them out by late 1992 / early 1993. Blair's appeal to 'middle England' and the Murdoch media (for a period I think the Tory press became the Tony press), did further increase the scale of the 1997 victory to 'super-landslide' proportions though.
Basically how I feel, we will have another PM forced upon us by the Tory party in a leadership contest and everything will be forgotten.
The problem was labour thought they were guaranteed a win in 1992 until Kinnock did his Sheffield rally and blew it. Why would a rally blow it? Because people didn't fundamentally trust labour or its leadership and the rally accentuated the doubts. So all those 20 point leads for John Smith were treated with scepticism by Blair's team, they wanted kill any perception labour might be a risky choice because they wanted to win very badly. They left nothing to chance. In retrospect you could argue it was an over cautious approach that led to the public spending freeze, the dalliance with Murdoch etc but at the time, you can see why they did it. Blair's team left nothing to chance, at all. It's something today's Labour has forgotten.
Didn't the Tories go into the 1992 election with a majority of around 100 though, i.e. bigger than any majority that they have had since then including under Johnson? So in terms of pure parliamentary arithmetic, Labour had quite a large mountain to climb just to become the largest party let alone win a majority.
Despite Labour's disappointment at losing yet again in 1992, they did win around 40 seats, and slash the Tories' majority from around 100 to 20, so it still showed that they were on track to win power.
In-between the 1992 election and Blair becoming leader in 1994, there was Black Wednesday, the Tories' putting VAT on fuel (which I think broke one of their 1992 election pledges), several by-election defeats for the Tories reducing their majority further, the furore over the Maastricht treaty, Major's 'back to basics' pledge immediately unravelling with scandal after scandal etc. Major was popular at the time of the 1992 election (I gather that him replacing Thatcher in 1990 completely wrong-footed Labour) but that had been shot to pieces by the end of 1992, as had the public's trust in the Tories' ability to manage the economy and taxes by early 1993 at the latest.
While Blair became leader in tragic circumstances following Smith's death, from a purely 'tactical' point of view, it was an absolutely perfect time to become leader. He was up against deeply unpopular (and dead and buried) Tory government that had been in power for 15 years, with the public already wanting a change. Labour already had more than 270 seats in the Commons. Blair inherited by far the strongest hand of any incoming opposition leader in my lifetime at least.
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I guess the real question is whether Boris is either able to or prepared to change the way he operates.
My view is that he will keep his head down and try to pretend that he is listening.
But the simple fact is that he is what he is. And pretty soon, he will revert to type.
And this cycle of incompetence coupled with his natural arrogance will again become an increasing problem.
You're obsessed with the idea of Gove as PM, I'm convinced you post about it every week.
Michael Gove has 0.1% chance of becoming PM.
Agreed. On the other hand he won three successive elections and asphyxiated the Tories for a decade, the credit for that is his. He inherited a strong hand (Kinnock deserves props for much of that), but he played it very well - not sure Smith, as decent as he was, was in anything like the same class in terms of political skill.
Surprising result for Shropshire. There's been a bit of a Brexit backlash next door in Hereford with the local elections going to the Green party in some areas and although I thought the Tories would lose votes I didn't expect Lib Dems to actually pull off a win.
That's a big, big loss for the Tories.
That's a big, big loss for the Tories.